Monthly Archives: February 2022

As a fledgling oil producer, Guyana sits at a crucial juncture in its development. Despite the effects of COVID 19, Guyanas real GDP in 2021 grew by 19.9 % and is

projected to grow by 47.5% in 2022, driven primarily by the countrys rapidly rising oil sector. Whatever we think of fossil fuel extraction, Guyana both needed and deserves economic growth.

But oil brings with it significant risks threats to the environment, volatility across the economy, corruption and the twin phenomenon of the Resource Curse and the Dutch Disease, the former referring to the paradox whereby countries rich in natural resources experience slower growth and poorer economic performance. Economic analyses of resource rich developing nations, such as Timor Leste, Angola, Nigeria, and closer to home Venezuela and Brazil, have found that resource richness does not translate to economic growth, and are often associated with poorer economic, social, and political outcomes. Those countries all face the following problems: the Dutch Disease, lack of institutional development, lack of capital of diffusion, and negative environmental repercussions. While these consequences have been avoided in a few developing countries among which Botswana and Chile stand out, the very nature of the petroleum industry almost inevitably catalyses the resource curse.

The Dutch disease a phrase coined to describe the decreases in the Netherlands manufacturing sector following the discovery of oil fields in the 1960s results from the saturation of the domestic economy by the injection of significant inflows of foreign currency. Because of the lack of diversity in the economy, increasing reliance on a price volatile resource, and inadequate governance issues in the administration of the country, Guyana is particularly exposed, and indeed may be already experiencing the consequences of the Dutch Disease.

It is a natural consequence that as inflow increases, the foreign exchange rate of the local currency appreciates resulting in the increase in the purchasing power of domestic currency relative to foreign goods. Goods, labour and manufacturing become cheaper abroad as prices of domestic goods and manufacturing costs balloon. This can result in the stunting of the growth of alternative sectors of the economy, particularly the agricultural and manufacturing industries, as capital and labour are diverted to the extractive industry.

Petroleum is a resource at the heart of an export-based industry while extraction of the resource relies heavily on foreign capital, as well the funding and involvement of multi-national companies. Guyana, previously known countries for its insistence for political and economic independence among Third World countries, is now in a symbiotic, inseparable relationship with international oil companies, unable even to make laws that affect them, with the operation of the oil contract now subject to international resolution rather than domestic adjudication.

Given the size of our population and the scale of the discoveries, some benefits will undoubtedly accrue to all segments of the population. But that will be heavily distorted in favour of the already privileged class, aggravating the wide economic and social disparity in our society. Institutional weaknesses and the concentration of capital allow the domestic business and political elite overwhelming control over the revenue from projects operating largely outside the normal governmental financial processes.

Though the resource curse is a tangible and frankly, likely, threat to resource rich countries like Guyana, necessary precautions may offset some of the negative economic repercussions. Institutional integrity, such as an independent Petroleum Commission, an equally independent and robust sovereign wealth fund and government accountability and transparency may be conducive to sustained growth can deal with the governance issues. Diversification and economic productivity unrelated to the extractive industries that reduces dependence on the single resource can deal with the economic issues.

The absence in the Budget Speech of any indication of how the proceeds from the Natural Resource Fund will be injected into the economy must cause discomfort among those concerned about the Dutch Disease. It compounds the unfortunate condition that in the face of such challenges, the Government would be so unreceptive to any attempt by the political opposition, the media, academics and civil society to engage in discussions and consultations on what must be the top economic, environmental and inter-generational issue to be faced by the country.

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Avoiding the Resource Curse and the Dutch Disease - Stabroek News

Journalist, photographer, author and professor Howard W. Frenchs Born in Blackness: Africa, Africans, and the Making of the Modern World, 1471 to the Second World War, is the most recent in a long career of thoughtful and significant literary and journalistic interventions. It demands an account of modernity that reckons with Africa as central to the making of the modern world.

The books main aim, French explains early on, is to restore those key chapters which articulate Africas significance to our common narrative of modernity to their proper place of prominence.

French intricately traces, from the early 15th century through the Second World War, the encounters between African and European civilisations. These, he argues, were motivated by Europes desire to trade with West Africas rich, Black civilisations. These included the Ghanaian and Malian empires. The ancient West African region was perceived as an abundant source of both gold and slaves. French argues that it is the intertwined background of gold and slavery which would eventually birth the transatlantic slave trade of the early 16th century.

Born in Blackness sprawls approximately 600 years. It traverses geographies from the edge of Europe, across Africa and the Americas. It follows the long history of the age of European discovery beginning with Portugals early ventures into Africa and Asia in the late 1400s and early 1500s, through the Atlantic slave trades modest start in Barbados in the 1630s to the Haitian Revolution.

Then it moves to Londons abolishment of the transatlantic trafficking of humans in 1807 and the introduction of the mechanical cotton picker. This invention could do the work of fifty sharecropping Blacks, a fact not lost on the white planters of the (Mississippi Delta). Frenchs historical tracing of the crafting of the modern world through the oppression and subjugation of Black persons continues on through the Second World War and beyond.

Citing Simeon Booker, a noteworthy African-American journalist whose work concerned the American civil rights movement and the murder of Emmett Till, an African-American teenager accused of offending a white woman, French notes that in the early 1960s, Mississipi could easily rank with South Africa, Angola or Nazi Germany for brutality and hatred.

His careful weaving together of how gold and slavery became intertwined over centuries and continents makes one thing abundantly clear. Without the trade of persons belonging to African civilisations across the globe, but particularly the Atlantic, the modern world would not have been made.

As the author explains, the boom of the cotton, sugar and tobacco industries of the colonial US simply would not have happened without the trade of slaves from Africa. Without this capitalist jolt as French puts it, what we know now as the United States of America would have remained relatively obscure. It would not likely have become the superpower state it is today.

Read more: Black Lives Matter but slavery isn't our only narrative

In this way Born in Blackness challenges emphatically the deliberate forgetting of European contests over control of African resources. This process of erasure, French explains, began with Europes Age of Discovery (1400s-1600s). The improperly explained rationale for this era was that European civilisations wanted to form trading ties with Asia. To do so, they reached across continents, including Africa, for territory and, later, subjects.

But French insists that the real rationale was Europes earnest desire to establish economic ties with Africa, and in particular West Africa with its resource-rich civilisations and resource-based economies.

The intervention of Born in Blackness, then, is to insist on reckoning with the role played by the brutal bond between Europe and Africa. This was forged through slavery. It is what drove the birth of a truly global capitalist economy; it hastened the processes of industrialisation and revolutionised the worlds diets by facilitating the globalisation of the consumption of sugar.

It is also important to mark, as French does, that the centrality of enslaved Africans labour extends beyond the mining of plantation crops to the very creation of the plantations themselves. It was the slaves who prepared the land for planting: they removed plants and rocks, but most importantly displaced indigenous peoples from their territories.

In marking this, Born in Blackness demonstrates how the displacement to which African persons taken as slaves is mirrored in the making of modern-day America and echoed in the displacement of first nations or indigenous Americans.

What is at stake in the intervention of the book is precisely what is gestured toward by its title: that modernity and the modern world was indeed born in Blackness. The civilisational transformations the author traces economic, spatial and most importantly cultural in their texture are a product of Blackness.

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Book review: how Africa was central to the making of the modern world - The Conversation CA

Union Budget 2022-23: Renewable energy plants or farms at wrong places willdestroy critical natural ecosystems, threaten endangered species

Indian Union Budget/ Representational image. CNBC-TV18

The temptation to fill this article with numbers and make a case for higher budgetary allocations to help conserve Indias wildlife and natural habitats in the upcoming Union budget is irresistible. Especially, given the scope and geographical coverage that the Ministry of Environment Forest and Climate Change (MoEF&CC) has to operate in, making it difficult to work within the given Budget.

The monetary policies to support economic growth in the pandemic ravaged years and to deal with bottle-necks, demand-supply mismatch leading to rising inflation, and with general elections not far the finance minister like always has a very crucial role to play. In these times focusing on the environment would be the most prudent step.

The Union Environment minister speaking recently at the South Asian Consultation meeting said that we need to encourage investment for sustainable use with necessary regulations to increase ABS (access and benefit-sharing) fund, which can be used for conservation of biodiversity and betterment of the local community. This was said referring to The Biological Diversity Act, 2002. Further, he said that India subscribes to the theory and practice of green infrastructure development and Development and Design particularly in the linear infrastructure sector that we build to promote economic development, conservation and connectivity

In the current consumption-based linear economic model, human well-being will always be compromised for economic growth, this needs to change. The prime minister in one of his speeches stressed the need to move towards a circular economy and the upcoming budget would be a good start to his intent. A circular economy means moving away from our current linear economic models of taking materials from Earth, making products from them, and eventually throwing them as waste. A circular economy allows economic well-being while tackling issues such as resource management, waste and pollution, biodiversity loss, and climate change to name a few.

Indias move towards renewables is a commendable start; however, this will also have to keep in mind the impact it may create if not done well. Renewable energy plants or farms at the wrong places can destroy critical natural ecosystems and threaten endangered species. Thus, bringing down the net benefits significantly if not irreversibly.

The Budget can help tackle this by incentivizing installations in the right locations. Economic activities need to promote regeneration of natural systems and move away from take-make-waste processes, this can be driven by the right budget allocations. Principles of the circular economy if incorporated in the Budget will help transition to sustainable economic progress.

The prime ministers vision for development and design can be boosted by smart allocations; for example, the Budget must make provisions for mitigation measures along linear infrastructure be it roads, canals, railway, or transmission lines. This will in all likelihood save lives of endangered species such as the Great Indian Bustard, Elephant, Tiger, and Rhinoceros more than any other measure while quickening the completion time.

The Budget must increase allocations for both fundamental and applied research. There is evidence to show that investing in research positively impacts economic well-being. Research in fundamental sciences, biomimetics, natural resource management, biodiversity, and the environment will not only help come up with potential solutions to the most complex issues but will also help arrest the brain drain from our country.

The Prime Minister at World Economic Forum, Davos said in keeping our goal of 'Global good' we commit to a net-zero target by 2070. India's growth will be green, clean, sustainable, and reliable. Further, he said that the country is 100 percent committed to mitigating climate change impact. Increasing budgetary provisions significantly for the MoEF&CC will enable the realisation of this vision, as sustainability is the core of this ministry.

Budget 2022 is a great opportunity to lay the foundation for a new paradigm. Incentivizing circular economy, making provisions for mitigation measures, investing in research, investing in regeneration, and maintenance of natural systems hold the key. It will empower 1.3 billion of us and our country to build resilience, create wealth, prosper, bring economic well-being, and be a leader.

The authoris Head, The Habitats Trust-not-for-profit working towards the protection and conservation of India's natural habitats.Views are personal.

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Budget 2022: Circular economy will help transition to sustainable economic progress - Firstpost

The devastating impact of Covid-19 on Cambodias economy lies in the countrys growth generating process.

Prior to the pandemic, Cambodia was a world leader in economic growth and poverty reduction. It sustained an average growth rate of 7.7 percent between 1995 and 2019, raising its per capita income from US$323 in 1995 to US$1,621 in 2019, and graduated to a lower-middle-income economy in 2015. The poverty rate fell from 47.8 percent in 2007 to 13.5 percent in 2014.

Cambodias growth slowdown in 2020 due to the Covid-19 pandemic was among the most pronounced in the East Asia region. Growth fell by an estimated 10.1 percentage points from its pre-pandemic average growth rate.

This dramatic slowdown in growth can be attributed to dependence on a narrow range of products, markets, and factor inputs. In recent years, five products have in recent years accounted for 80 percent of total exports; two markets have accounted for 69 percent of merchandise exports; and foreign capital accounted for 72 percent of total capital investments in 2018.

The diversification problem is rooted in low and declining productivity; low quality and weak export linkages; and high foreign direct investment (FDI) but low domestic investment.

Cambodias inability to grow the product basket is explained by low labor productivity, or output per worker, which lags behind most countries globally when at Cambodias development level. Low labor productivity, at least in part, reflects low human capital. But the largest contributor is low and declining total factor productivity (TFP).

Low competitiveness and limited integration within global value chains (GVCs) have led to concentrated markets and trade. Constraints to diversifying and upgrading Cambodias trade are quality of FDI, low firm and worker capability, costly trade-related regulatory barriers (particularly affecting agricultural products), insufficient trade-related infrastructure, and nascent use of regional trade agreements to support greater market access for exporters.

The countrys low private savings rate, and as a result low domestic investment, has led to reliance on external financing sources. Rather than how many households save, how much households save and more important how households save appear to be key factors impeding greater domestic investment.

Three transformations can strengthen the recovery and help the country return to sustained economic growth.

A focus on firms and their workers is key to unleashing productivity. Policy reform in target areas can help the country meet its potential, including: investing in human capital through health and education; supporting more efficient resource allocation through improved market institutions and PIM; easing the regulatory burden for firms thereby reducing informality and its negative impact; and improving the performance of key services inputs to strengthen domestic linkages.

Diversification of exports can continue driving growth during the recovery from COVID-19. A cross-cutting and medium-term policy agenda to diversify Cambodias trade is structured on upgrading in manufacturing GVCs, creating value addition in agriculture, and increasing competitiveness to export modern services.

Harnessing domestic investment can help finance the next phase of growth. Policy areas include promoting FDI into productive and export sectors; promoting higher domestic savings rates; improving financial inclusion through greater access to savings institutions; supporting digital access through digital technologies; lowering the costs of savings accounts; and supporting financial sector stability and development more broadly.

Urgent action is needed to support Cambodias economic recovery from Covid-19 in a way that addresses the diversification problem to build back even stronger.

An ambitious reform agenda is neededone that focuses on improving capabilities, strengthening regulations, and investing in infrastructure.

The CEM findings are based on in-depth analysis and extensive consultation with a broad range of stakeholders.

The CEM is a World Bank report prepared in consultation with stakeholders. It revisits Cambodias growth model, with the objective to identify constraints and opportunities for sustained economic growth and proposing policy options to address them.

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Main Findings of the Cambodia Country Economic Memorandum (CEM) - World Bank Group

Sustainability and impact were not hot topics when Ron Gonen, founder and CEO of Closed Loop Partners, was in high school, but he knew that was the field he wanted to be in. He feels grateful to have been able to turn his dream into a career path that includes founding two companies and serving as deputy commissioner of sanitation, recycling, and sustainability for New York City. Gonen recommends everyone spend some time in public office because it is rewarding. His current firm invests in a variety of solutions to creating a more circular economy. Gonen explains that a circular economy is one that continually reuses materials, which is much more efficient. He shares that people are the most important part of business and he spends a lot of his time on recruiting and culture. Gonen believes the best impact a company can have is providing good jobs for employees.

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You were a consultant with Deloitte, then an entrepreneur running a company, and then worked for the Bloomberg administration in sanitation, recycling, and sustainability. Now youre the founder and CEO of Closed Loop Partners. Did you know you were going to be dealing with the circular economy and sustainability from a young age?

The inspiration was always to be doing this. In high school, I would talk about my interest in sustainability and impact. I feel very fortunate to be somebody that has really been able to fulfill their aspiration. There's been a number of ups and downs, but the trajectory has always been something that I've hoped for.

Today, if you're running a sustainability company, everybody claps for you and theres different funds for you. I don't think that was the case in 2004 when you ran RecycleBank. What was that experience like?

I went back to business school at Columbia Business School in 2002. Previous to that, I'd been in management consulting at Deloitte. It gave me a really important foundation. But my real passion was in sustainability and the intersection between social impact and targeting great financial returns.

My first day at Columbia Business School, everyone was asked, "What do you want to do when you graduate?" There were a bunch of responses regarding investment banks, strategy consulting, and hedge funds. Then I communicated my interest around building a company at this intersection between sustainable business practices and maximizing returns. People literally thought that I had come to the wrong meeting.

While I was at business school, I co-founded my first company, RecycleBank. Columbia Business School actually became the seed investor in the company.

You moved then from business school, the entrepreneurship scene, to public policy with Michael Bloomberg's administration from 2012 to 2014. What was that like?

The deputy mayor recognized that the sanitation could be managed in New York City in a more advanced and financially efficient way and created this new position called Deputy Commissioner for Sanitation, Recycling and Sustainability. I was recruited to build out the next iteration of what the sanitation department should look like, the next generation way to manage resources in the city.

Was that an easy transition for you? How did that personally feel?

I think joining the Bloomberg administration was a once in a lifetime experience. I encourage everybody to pursue a public office in some capacity sometime in their life. It's very rewarding to be able to serve your community.

I was able to supplement my business skills with things that you have to learn in government, like how to build consensus. Developing that skillset and then bringing it back to business, I found to be very rewarding.

You've been working on Closed Loop Partners and the circular economy over the last several years. What's happening to our world today in your perspective? Where are you personally pushing us to move forward in this circular economy type of world?

What we've been presented with in the Western world is that we live in a capitalist system that promotes a meritocracy. But the way our economy has actually been structured over the past 75 years is not a meritocracy. It's not a system where the person that works the hardest or has the best product ends up winning.

We've actually created a system that is designed for the financial benefit of certain industries. The result is that we have a manufacturing system that's based on a linear economy. You extract the natural resource. You use it for a product designed to be used essentially once and then disposed of in a landfill.

A true capitalist would build a system in which you optimize for efficiency, where you develop advanced products where you don't have to extract natural resources. You would design systems where you can continually recycle and continually reuse materials so you don't have to pay for landfills.

That was a recognition that I and a number of other people had: the most effective and efficient economy that we should be operating under is one that is circular. That was really the genesis behind launching Closed Loop Partners.

What was the rationale behind performing that out of multiple investment arms that have unique expertise in their own domains?

I was interested in designing a firm that would be able to invest anywhere along the growth trajectory of a solution. We look at the supply chains from A to Z in several industries, identify where the bottlenecks are, identify where there are solutions.

If it's an early-stage solution, we have a venture fund that can apply capital. If it's an infrastructure solution that requires project financing or debt, we have our infrastructure fund. If it's an opportunity to acquire a company and scale it, we have our private equity fund. If there isnt a solution in the market, we have an innovation center that will help develop a solution and commercialize it.

What was that like building it from the ground up?

After I exited my first company, I started teaching a course on entrepreneurship and social impact. One of the key lessons I tried to communicate to the students was that the three most important things I've learned in business are: people, people, people.

The development of Closed Loop Partners was a combination of this group of people that really have been with me for most of my career and then others that have either approached me or I've recruited. But the most important piece of this is I've learned to invest an enormous amount of my time in recruiting people and developing culture.

I want to have a positive impact on the world and participate in the circular economy when I start my own company. What are some things that I should be keeping in mind to build the right vision?

The best impact you could have, I believe, is providing somebody with a good job. We shouldn't get too flowery about sustainability and that impact is starting a company that's going to change the world. It's actually much more basic and achievable.

The best impact you can have is by providing somebody a good job in which they feel challenged intellectually and they're respected for whatever they're doing. And there's transparency in how decisions are made. If you're just doing that, you're actually having a really important impact on the world.

Beyond that, I would look at what my company is doing that's making some person's life, a community, or part of our environment better.

How early did you know this was your calling?

Very early. I grew up with a single mom in Philadelphia in the 1980s. For fourth grade, I had to go to one of the worst public schools in Philadelphia.

I recognized that this message that in America, it's all about pulling yourself up by the bootstraps was a complete fallacy. I looked around at that school and thought, "There's no way anyone's making it out of here and becoming some type of great success."

From there, I got to move to a good public school and one of the best private schools in the US. It further emphasized for me what actually was going on in America. It was not capitalism. That's not optimizing for economics or for your economy. You can agree with it socially or not. It's just not capitalism. That's probably the first instance in my life of recognizing that the system can be further optimized and the world can be a better place.

Michael Matias, Forbes 30 Under 30, is the author of Age is Only an Int: Lessons I Learned as a Young Entrepreneur. He studies Artificial Intelligence at Stanford University, is a Venture Partner at J-Ventures and was an engineer at Hippo Insurance. Matias previously served as an officer in the 8200 unit. 20MinuteLeaders is a tech entrepreneurship interview series featuring one-on-one interviews with fascinating founders, innovators and thought leaders sharing their journeys and experiences.

Contributing editors: Michael Matias, Megan Ryan

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The most efficient economy is a circular one where you're continually reusing materials. | Ctech - CTech

THE higher 5.7 per cent 2020-21 growth rate will make it a tad harder for Finance Minister Shaukat Tarin and his team to convince the people of their performance by the end of the ongoing fiscal in case there is a major dip in the GDP rate.

Some economists and development partners are already projecting a lower growth rate which might actually go further down post rebasing. Experts are divided on the impact of a higher growth rate on investment. They dont see the ruling party gaining much political capital from the exercise.

Business circles either do not understand the national accounting practices or are reluctant to make their stance public, preferring to focus on the future and how the government intends to comfort them and calm their anxieties.

Sudden and abrupt policy changes hurt business confidence more than anything. The withdrawal of tax breaks, amnesties, concessions and duty revisions shook the ground under our feet and disturbed our plans. Instead of focussing on core businesses, we have ended up contemplating the mood and moves of the government.

It will not be the government but the private sector that will deliver the future in Pakistan by investing, broadening the base of the economy and through job creation. We need sureties regarding policy continuity and improvement in the business environment for problem-free transactions. We dont care for some academic data exercises or its impact on the past, a business magnet commented off the record, bitterly hinting at recent IMF-induced measures.

The designation of FY16 as the base year might throw the proverbial spanner in many a work

The experts supported the governments move to carry out the long-delayed exercise of updating the base year but resented its politicisation.

All the song and dance about the higher GDP growth last fiscal, attained by updating the base year from FY06 to FY16 may end when the government reports the assessment of the current fiscal in five months before the budget in June, said an economist, who vouches for the prime ministers noble intentions. He wished not to be named though.

Noting repeated citations of higher growth data by the PTI leaders, he said: More than anything, it reflects the governments desperation to hang on to anything positive to turn the public narrative in their favour. The peoples verdict in the local body elections in KP and the opposition parties plans of street protest have together unnerved the PTI government, he said.

Dr Ali Cheema, an economist associated with the Lahore University of Management Sciences and the Centre for Economic Research in Pakistan, commenting on the prospects of higher investment after the revision of GDP growth rate, said: The issue is not the growth rate; it is macro stability. He advised not to read too much in growth rate revision, arguing that the GDP is not a measure of the effectiveness of government programmes. He did not see higher GDP boosting the governments fortunes, reminding that inflation is the economic measure with political consequences.

Dr Rashid Amjad, former vice-chancellor of the Pakistan Institute of Development Economics (PIDE) and a member of the governments economic advisory group, sounded optimistic and talked of a spike in investment while advising one and all to avoid paying heed to speculations of the naysayer.

Rebasing was long overdue and though new sectors, like IT and food delivery, have been added, it still underestimates the real size of the national economy which to my mind is at least 25-30pc larger.

That said, a $335 billion economy is a bigger and more attractive market for investors than the one that is worth $275bn if the security situation and, more importantly, the perception of foreign investors also change.

It helps to identify new emerging sectors. The government needs to build on these new estimates of growth (which was already much higher at 5.4pc than the earlier estimate of 3.95pc even without rebasing and which now stands at 5.7pc) and ignore the pessimistic portrayal of the economy by the media and the opposition.

A negative impact of rebasing is that it will show a lower growth this year due to a higher base, but the change in GDP composition with a larger share of agriculture and services may still ensure a 5pc growth this year, he concluded.

Also feeling positive was Dr Ishrat Hussain, a former governor of the State Bank and dean of the Institute of Business Administration who was an advisor to the prime minister on institutional reforms until recently.

Rebasing is a routine exercise carried out every five years. We have delayed it by 15 years and that is why our data was sub-standard. Rebasing improves the quality as it is based on actual surveys carried out in 2015-16.

It is more reflective of the reality as it includes new activities and excludes the dead ones. We should now carry out livestock and agriculture censuses which would enable us to draw samples from the surveys of these sectors to incorporate in the next rebasing exercise.

Professor Abdul Jalil, an economist at PIDE, mentioned the impact of rebasing on GDP ratios in terms of export, education and health that deteriorated further after rebasing. The size of the economy grew, but the key ratios reflecting the performance of the external sector, resource mobilisation and social services deteriorated. The tax-to-GDP ratio dropped to 9.5pc from 11.1pc and the exports-to-GDP ratio sunk to 7.4pc from 8.6pc. I dont see how will it help improve the countrys perception

Experts believe that rebasing has generated space for local and foreign borrowing for the resource-starved government by revising down debt-to-GDP ratio by a good 12pc to 72pc from 84pc of the GDP. The one per cent reduction in fiscal deficit as a ratio of the GDP will provide room for new sovereign guarantees pegged on the economys size.

Rebasing of national accounts is a practice to change the reference year for individual price and volume indices and perform aggregation to obtain national account aggregates.

It seems that political rather than economic considerations guided the decision in this regard.

Instead of regular equal intervals of five or 10 years, there have been lapses of 15 and 20 years between rebasing exercises in Pakistan. Over the past 75 years, it has been done seven times; 1949-50, 1959-60, 1980-81, 1996-96, 1999-2000, 2005-06 and the current decision to designate 2015-16 as the base year.

Published in Dawn, The Business and Finance Weekly, January 31st, 2022

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Is politics calling the economic shots? - DAWN.com

Ive been thinking a lot about resilience what are the factors that contribute to resiliency and where does Michigan rank?

An experience that sparked my interest occurred several years ago when my husband Jim and I attended the Urban Land Institutes annual conference in Vancouver, British Columbia. One of the sessions we attended was by the Grosvenor Group, a 340-year-old global property management company with $36.7 billion in assets under management, headquartered in London, U.K.

They presented a report that ranked the overall resilience of the worlds top 50 cities. Perhaps not entirely coincidental, the top three-ranked cities named were Toronto, Vancouver and Calgary.

But what surprised us was that our flagship city, Detroit, ranked 15th in the world, ahead of London (18) and was 8th in the U.S., between New York City and San Francisco.

This led us to think about the attributes that contribute to Detroit and Michigans resiliency and the implications for our future.

As our planet warms and weather-related events like rising sea levels, violent storms, fires and droughts put communities and industries in peril, will northerly locations and natural resources be more resilient?

Could Michigan have strategic advantages in an era of climate change that put us in a sweet spot based on quality of life and economic opportunity?

According to Parag Khanna in his latest book, Move: The Forces Uprooting Us, the answer is yes.

Khanna examines how climate change is already triggering global migration, particularly from areas most affected by extreme drought and rising sea levels to areas that are more habitable (primarily in northern regions or higher elevations; i.e. where its cooler!)

He asserts the regions that gain population as a result of climate migration will experience new job creation and economic growth.

Why are we a good candidate to attract climate migrants who can help fill our talent pipeline and drive economic growth?

It starts with geography. We are located in the northern midsection of North America, defined by two beautiful peninsulas and surrounded by 20% of the worlds fresh water.

Visionaries like Traverse City environmental attorney Jim Olson have long advocated for protection of our fresh water, recognizing that it will become an ever-more precious resource as many regions literally dry up. Traverse City-based FLOW (For the Love of Water), led by Liz Kirkwood, champions protection and stewardship of the Great Lakes Basin waters as a common and highly valued resource.

We have the longest freshwater coast line in the U.S. (3,288 miles) and, though some fluctuation in the lakes levels occur, significant sea level change is not expected to be a major risk. Being surrounded by the Great Lakes also helps to moderate our climate from extreme cold and heat.

We have abundant land-based natural resources, including forests covering 50% of our land, and agriculture, with the nations second-most diverse crop base. As the planet warms, agricultural yields may increase, thanks to longer growing seasons, and further diversification of our crop base.

Michigan is a multi-modal international transportation and distribution hub, and is enhancing that advantage with investments such as modernization of the Soo Locks and construction of the Gordie Howe International Bridge.

We are a maker state with advanced technology, testing and manufacturing capacity, particularly in the mobility innovation space. Two recently enacted programs the Strategic Site Readiness Program and the Critical Industry Program provide important economic tools aimed at increasing the number of advanced mobility manufacturing and supply chain sector jobs in Michigan.

Strong STEM programs offered by Michigans universities give us a knowledge-based strategic advantage.

Locally, Traverse Connect sponsors the Creative Coast, a talent attraction initiative that showcases our region as a place to live and pursue a career; incubator 20Fathoms helps healthcare and technology business start-ups.

Another important resource-based asset that contributes to our resiliency is a diverse, four-season portfolio of healthy lifestyle outdoor recreation options. Think snow sports, water sports, boating, golfing, hiking and biking trails, camping, fishing, hunting, ice climbing and winter surfing weve got it all!

These resources and places, like Crystal Mountain, contribute not only to quality of life, but also to our economy, with a $9.5 billion economic impact and support for more than 108,000 jobs.

But the relevance of our magnificent outdoor playground extends beyond economic impact. It has the power to help people reimagine Michigan from being a Rust Belt, old technology place to one with the cool factor, including access to year-round outdoor recreation.

It also is an opportunity to combine our history of innovation and manufacturing to lead in the exploding outdoor recreation industry.

Despite these attributes, including prestigious educational institutions offering knowledge-based degrees, Michigans stats for attracting and retaining talent are not great.

During the last 10 years, the total U.S. population increased at a rate three times that of Michigan (7.4% nationally versus Michigan at 2%), which resulted in the loss of a Congressional seat.

Our population is aging: 30% of Michiganders are older than 55; we rank sixth in the nation in outbound migration of high school and college graduates.

If we consider resilience as a three-legged stool, two of our three legs natural resources and geography are strong. But our third leg successfully competing for global talent is weak.

Developing, attracting and retaining talent is a key to filling the high-wage, knowledge-based jobs that drive economic growth. According to New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg talent attracts capital far more effectively and consistently than capital attracts talent.

So are we in the sweet spot? Perhaps the answer is: We CAN be.

We have many of the basic ingredients: geography, resources and we are both innovators and makers.

But to thrive we need to reverse the talent drain. We need a laser-focused strategy for developing, attracting and retaining talent with knowledge-based skills that will support investment and drive job-creating innovations, including critical areas like clean energy deployment and mobility electrification.

We need to send a message that Michigan has the cool factor, is safe and welcoming, and has best-in-class social and physical infrastructure to support healthy lifestyles and healthy communities.

Michigan is poised to be in the sweet spot. But we have some work to do to seize this opportunity.

Chris MacInnes is president of Crystal Mountain. In 1985, she and her husband Jim moved from California to join this business and together have led its evolution. She is also active in state, local and industry organizations.

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People Power: Resilience is the quality that will attract talent to Michigan - Traverse City Business News