Monthly Archives: February 2022

The Omicron subtype BA.2 is expected to soon beat out its currently-dominant cousin, BA.1. Photo / Getty Images

It's been dubbed "son of Omicrion" by the world's media, but BA.2 is better considered a close cousin to the subvariant it's overtaking around the world and soon will here. Science reporter Jamie Morton explains.

Just as we've seen the original "wild type" of the Sars-CoV-2 virus branch into variants, variants spawn subvariants.

The B.1.1.529 variant that was first detected in South Africa just 69 days ago and which we today know better as Omicron has been observed in three main subtypes.

Those are BA.1, which has spread like wildfire around the world and replaced Delta in the pandemic driver's seat; BA.2; and the relatively rare BA.3.

But BA.2's star is rising fast.

It's already beating out its cousin in parts of Europe and Asia, and has so far been confirmed here in some border workers and their families.

In Denmark, it's responsible for more than 80 per cent of new infections already.

In the UK, scientists suspect a falling proportion of PCR tests with the original Omicron lineage isn't due to competition from older variants like Delta, but the ascendant BA.2.

While it shares the same 32 mutations with BA.1, some important features set it apart.

Whereas BA.1 is commonly identified because it's missing one of three target genes used in standard PCR tests, BA.2 has been nicknamed "stealth Omicron" because it doesn't have that tell-tale missing target gene.

That's left scientists to instead track it using genomic data, in the same way they did with earlier variants like Delta.

Early studies into BA.2 have yielded good and bad news.

The good news was that, so far, it hasn't proven any more severe than the BA.1 subvariant, which itself was much less likely than Delta to make people sick enough to need to go to hospital.

"Whether or not it causes more severe disease will become apparent as more data is collected," said Professor Jonathan Ball, a molecular virologist at the UK's University of Nottingham.

"Of course, it is important to keep monitoring the situation and try to gain a better understanding of how this variant behaves, but so far there is nothing in these early analyses to worry us unduly."

It was less clear whether BA.2 was better at evading vaccine immunity than BA.1.

A new Danish study suggested it may possess immune-evasive properties that further reduce the protective effect of vaccination against infection.

Still, analyses have shown the booster shot offered a similar level of protection up to 90 per cent at keeping infected people out of hospital.

The bad news: it's estimated to be 1.5 times more transmissible than BA.1, which largely explained its swift path to dominance.

Even on the basis of what we know about the spreading power of BA.1, New Zealand modellers are anticipating a quick-building wave that could soon peak with tens of thousands of daily infections.

A faster-spreading Omicron might mean more cases and more pressure on the health system.

The precise reasons for BA.2's apparent advantage remain unclear.

Scientists have so far pointed to changes within its spike protein - used by the virus to recognise and invade susceptible host cells - as well as in its receptor binding domain.

Associate Professor Stuart Turville, of the University of New South Wales, said those changes in the binding domain may increase transmissibility, but there still hadn't been enough data to compare both subvariants head-to-head in the community.

"It may turn out to be a more transmissible sub-variant to BA.1 - and not unlike what we have seen with small changes in variants that can drive the supplanting of one versus another."

Associate Professor James Wood, an infectious disease epidemiologist also of the University of New South Wales, predicted BA.2 would replace BA.1 in Australia within mere months.

Still, he didn't expect it to immediately cause a new epidemic wave, or to lead to a major change in disease severity.

Otago University virologist Dr Jemma Geoghegan said the same pattern might also play out here.

"We have to remember that a lot of this can depend on epidemiological factors like super-spreading, as well as genetic factors," she said.

"But all else being equal, we can still probably expect to see an increase in BA.2 cases."

Geoghegan said a big unanswered question was whether BA.2 could infect someone after they'd already been infected with BA.1.

"We know that reinfections can happen and that's been reported but not necessarily with the same variant," she said.

"What would be helpful to know is that, if you've already had BA.1, and you're fully vaccinated with the booster, if you're less likely to become infected again, either with BA.1 or BA.2."

Another question was - assuming BA.2 took over how long its reign would last.

"Omicron has quickly become dominant and spread around the world, so whatever comes next is going to have to be even fitter."

Interestingly, she pointed out Omicron emerged not from a Delta ancestor, but from one that dated to around mid-2020.

"So, it's hard to know whether Omicron is going to produce more subvariants or whether a whole new variant will come along that might be more closely related to something else."

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Explained: What NZ can expect from new Omicron subvariant - New Zealand Herald

Workers being told to hunker down, house prices breach the million-dollar mark and a new twist in the Boris Johnson lockdown parties saga in the latest New Zealand Herald headlines. Video / NZ Herald

Commerce Minister David Clark has hinted banks may not have been complying with responsible lending rules, as he outlined the terms for an inquiry into legislative changes that have been blamed for loans being refused.

On Monday afternoon Clark released terms of reference for its investigation into the Credit Contracts and Consumer Finance Act (CCCFA).

While New Zealand's banking sector has said the new rules mean certain customers who were previously able to borrow are now having to have applications declined due to the new rules, Clark has fired back, suggesting a drop in lending may be seasonal and it was possible banks were simply not ready for the changes.

Clark told Newstalk ZB host Mike Hosking that similar changes in Australia took time to bed in.

"Some banks were better prepared than others and I think that's what we're seeing here."

Asked if he believed an investigation would show he had "cocked up" Clark seemed to believe this was not the case.

"My hunch is what we're seeing is the result of the changes making an impact in the right way," Clark said, adding that the review would establish the facts.

A review of lending in 2018 found "widespread irresponsible lending in New Zealand and that included across the banks," Clark said.

Initially targeting loan sharks, banks warned the changes would make lending more conservative. Almost as soon as the legislation came into force, bank customers complained they were being rejected loans due to what appeared to be minor personal spending.

The terms of reference suggest the investigation will start reporting back to the Commerce and Consumer Affairs Minister within days, but a swift fix is unlikely.

Headed by unnamed officials at the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment, the first advice will be provided by "early-mid February" with further advice expected in April.

Outlining a series of potential work streams, including changes in credit markets, other factors that may be impacting lending such as Reserve Bank lending rules and assessing the CCCFA's impact, the terms of reference suggested more work may need to follow.

"A potential outcome is that more work will likely need to be done to fully understand actual impacts."

Clark, who has come under fire as reports documented the extent to which banks warned about the possible impact of the new rules, appeared to hit back on Monday.

The Dunedin North MP revealed he had called the heads of the major banks in for meetings this week "to the bottom of exactly what aspects of the CCCFA responsible lending rules were not being adhered to by some banks previously.

"Anecdotal evidence to date suggests the new lending requirements have presented a greater challenge for some parties."

Clark did not elaborate on the statement and has refused interview requests.

In a statement, the New Zealand Bankers' Association said it did not know what Clark was referring to.

"Banks take their obligations to comply with the law very seriously. That was the case before the rule change, and remains the case," NZBA chief executive Roger Beaumont said.

"The suggestion that banks were not complying with their responsible lending obligations before the latest CCCFA changes comes as a surprise. Banks are simply complying with the new rules as they are written.

"There's a one-size fits all approach for all lenders and all loan types, from home loans to overdrafts and extensions to credit card limits. This means banks don't have the same discretion or flexibility they used to."

Supported by the Treasury, Reserve Bank and Commerce Commission, the terms of reference say MBIE will lead an investigation into "the intended or unintended impacts, beyond those expected by the initial implementation" of the legislation "primarily in relation to mortgage, but also other lending, by banks and non-bank lenders in the current consumer credit market".

Introduced into Parliament by Kris Faafoi, Clark inherited the legislation when he became Commerce Minister after the 2020 election.

Although he delayed the implementation of the legislation in late 2021 to give the banks more time to prepare to implement it, Clark did not accede to calls for it to be scrapped.

Within weeks of the legislation coming into effect on December 1, customers began claiming approval for loans due to the rules.

Established customers at banks have claimed they were placed under unusual amounts of scrutiny despite lengthy credit histories.

"The investigation will analyse the reported outcomes of the CCCFA and whether they're attributable to the Act's intended protections, unintended consequences or any other external factors like the global economic situation," Clark said.

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Lending probe: David Clark hints banks not following the rules - New Zealand Herald

In what was supposed to be 10 days of hotel quarantine for this young family, the experience has turned into a hellish 40 days and 40 nights.

Ten days in managed isolation and quarantine (MIQ) has turned into 40 days for a Dunedin family after members of the group tested positive for Covid-19.

The Williamson family, consisting of mum Casey, dad Glen, and children Sam, Luca and Maya, had been in quarantine since January 16 after a Christmas trip to Australia to visit family, the New Zealand Herald reports.

On January 21, five days into their initial 10-day MIQ stay in Auckland, the family received bad news.

Daughter Luca had tested positive for Covid-19, meaning the family had to transfer to a quarantine facility.

It also meant the clock was reset on their isolation.

While Luca would be free to leave the facility 14 days after her positive test, the rest of the family would need to complete a further 10 days of isolation after this date.

These goalposts shifted again on Friday when Sam also received a positive test result, resetting the clock again.

The family now face a scenario where Luca will be eligible for release on February 5, followed by Sam on February 14.

Ms Williamson and Maya would have another 10 days in isolation on top of that, although their clock could be reset again if either tests positive.

That means the pair will be in quarantine for at least 40 days.

Mr Williamson moved into a separate room yesterday so he could start 10 days isolating by himself and potentially be ready to take the two older girls back to Dunedin earlier.

Ms Williamson said the situation had families in quarantine trying desperately to infect each other with Covid-19 so they could be released sooner.

Thats what we tried to do, were sharing toothbrushes, drinking out of water bottles, not cleaning our hands.

The family have been restricted to two hotel rooms and are allowed outside for exercise for 30 minutes a day.

The first days of quarantine went well, as the family hunkered down with movies, board games and craft activities.

But after two weeks, the children were starting to struggle with isolation.

They asked me how long were going to be here and I said to Luca today, Fourteen more days, and she just started crying. She wants to go home.

Ms Williamson said she did not see the point of such extended stays any more when Omicron was now in the community, with cases allowed to isolate at home.

The government trusted us to isolate at home when we were infected in the last two lockdowns, so I dont really see what the difference is.

Any other time when someones infected you isolate at home and the Government just trusts you to do the right thing. You dont need to lock us up like this anymore.

The family had flown to Sydney on December 19 to spend Christmas with Ms Williamsons family, and were originally due to return on January 17, to take advantage of the commencement of self-isolation at home.

Ms Williamson said she had only seen her family once since the start of the pandemic, and they knew there could be a risk the self-isolation trial would be cancelled or postponed.

You know youre taking a risk, but you know that that emotional side takes over from the logical side and you just want to go and be with your family.

Unfortunately, just days after they arrived in Australia, the Government announced self-isolation would be suspended until at least the end of February.

The family was prepared for spending 10 days in MIQ if need be, but were not aware that could be extended further with each new positive test.

This article originally appeared on the New Zealand Herald and has been republished with permission

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Family living through hell in 40-night stay - NEWS.com.au

February 1 2022Deputy PM Grant Roberson says the Government has ordered enough new rapid antigen test kits (RATS) to get the country through any looming Omicron outbreak.

OPINION:

Over the past week I have witnessed what can happen when government officials who want to work outside the box are given authority, encouragement even, to work alongside their private sector counterparts to get things done.

On Thursday last week, with help from Minister Dr Ayesha Verrall, I finally got to speak directly with Dr Ashley Bloomfield and was able to pass on the contact details for a potential supply of rapid antigen tests that he was not aware of. Within 24 hours, given the permission to act, Kelvin Watson, CEO of the Ministry of Health, had done his due diligence and ordered the first 5 million tests.

My understanding is the Governmnet has just ordered another 40m tests, extending the total order to 65 million and business has been given an assurance from Bloomfield that the 1.1 million they ordered from the same supplier will not be requisitioned by the Government now that we have put them in contact with one of the biggest suppliers of rapid antigen tests in the world.

A factory that produces 6 million tests a day, 7 days a week.

Now all we need is for Minister Chris Hipkins to take up the offer from Foodstuffs North Island chief executive Chris Quin to use their size, scale and distribution network to ensure that businesses without that scale can get access, at cost, to rapid antigen tests as well.

Minister, it's time to acknowledge that all businesses are essential to the people who work in them, and all workers are critical to the businesses that employ them.

But there is an even more important decision you must make this week, and it too relates to testing.

Two years ago, when the MOH mandated the PCR nasopharyngeal test as the only test that they would accept, there was arguably a strong case for that decision, but the subsequent failure to explore other options is arguably one of the reasons we have had Kiwis stranded overseas without hope, businesspeople travelling abroad not knowing when they will be able to get home, and a border control system that has been totally compromised by the failure to explore more efficient means of isolating people without the need to lock them away in MIQ.

Over the past two weeks we have been working with MBIE and MOH on a self-isolation proposal that I understand is now on your desk for approval. At the core of this proposal is the use of a test called Lucira.

The focus over the past week has been on rapid antigen testing, but Lucira is part of a category called Lamp, or as the medical experts would call it - "reverse transcription loop-mediated isothermal amplification (RT-Lamp)". This test has been approved as a PCR equivalent by some of the strictest and most technically advanced countries in the world. Countries such as Israel, Singapore, Taiwan, Canada and the US.

I understand that officials at the MOH have followed up on the contacts we provided and have had shared with them independent trials some of these countries have conducted for their approval process.

The game changer with Lucira is that it can deliver a result in 30 minutes and do it at less cost than the current nasopharyngeal test that can take anywhere between 24 and 72 hours to deliver a result.

We have just had our Prime Minister locked in isolation while she waited for her test results. A Lucira test would have given her a result within 30 minutes of hearing she was deemed to be a close contract.

This test was offered to the New Zealand government in July last year. Imagine how better we may have controlled our borders had we used tests like Lucira to require that no one boarded a flight unless they had tested negative five hours before boarding and confirmed their status within an hour of landing.

How many of the current Omicron cases in MIQ would have been detected before they flew to New Zealand? How many Covid cases would have been detected before the last lockdown that cost Auckland $8 billion? How many stranded Kiwis could we have brought home with a system that could have contained a mix of self-isolation and MIQ? How much easier would it be for businesses to send their people offshore knowing they had a safe and sure way home?

We could have had one of the safest borders in the world. And we still could.

Our self-managed isolation proposal is on your desk and all it needs is for you and the MOH to approve the use of Lucira so that we can run the pilot programme we have proposed. It requires a level of trust in business that has been missing for most of this pandemic but hopefully we have demonstrated over the past week what we can do together.

There is another reason for you and your cabinet colleagues to move on this as quickly as possible.

Lucira Health has offered to supply 2000 tests free to the Tongan relief effort. Air New Zealand has also offered to fly those 2000 tests to New Zealand free. Taking up this offer would mean that we could test all relief workers going from New Zealand to Tonga within an hour before their departure. That would be our contribution to making sure that we have done everything we can to keep Covid out of Tonga.

Prime Minister, we all understand that there are risks involved in moving quickly, but sometimes the risk of not moving at all is greater. Lucira is a case in point. It's been a year and a half since the offer was first made, other countries took up that offer and by sharing their data they have significantly reduced our risk.

Over the past week, working together with your officials, we have moved the country's supply of RATs from 4.3 million to 60 million. In a time of enormous demand we have secured a supply line with one of the largest producer of RATs in the world - at half the cost.

We did it once let's do it again.

Ian Taylor is the founder and managing director of Animation Research. He was named the 2019 New Zealand Innovator of the Year and in 2020 was awarded the Deloitte Top 200 Visionary Leader.

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Sir Ian Taylor: The Covid test offered to NZ last year that we need - New Zealand Herald

A man who entered New Zealand without declaring a manslaughter conviction, then stayed illegally for over a decade, has lost his fight to remain in the country.

Ualetenese Fiso, now 65, came to Auckland from Samoa in 2009 with his two young daughters.

The women, who are now in their 20s, have since been adopted by extended family members and granted New Zealand residence.

However, Fiso lived here unlawfully, with a family member, after his visitor permit expired in November 2009.

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In late 2020, Fiso was arrested, served with a deportation order, and told he must leave New Zealand by the following February.

He then appealed his deportation to the Immigration and Protection Tribunal. Its decision was made in November 2021 and has recently been released online.

Tom Lee/Stuff

Ualetenese Fiso served a four-year sentence for manslaughter before coming to New Zealand. (File photo)

As part of his appeal, Fiso provided a number of forms, including one that disclosed he had served four years in prison from 1980 to 1983 after being convicted of manslaughter.

When asked why he had not disclosed the conviction earlier, such as when he first applied to come to New Zealand, Fiso said he understood it had been wiped.

I can only understand that there was an amnesty for some convictions during a milestone celebration of independence somewhere in 2000-something, he told the tribunal.

Fiso argued deportation was unjust as it would separate him from his family in New Zealand. He had also not worked since his visitor permit expired, and it was unlikely he would be able to find employment in Samoa.

The tribunal acknowledged he would have a difficult adjustment to life if deported.

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A tribunal ruled Ualetenese Fiso should be deported after 12 years in New Zealand. (File photo)

However, those difficulties could have been avoided if he had left New Zealand after the expiry of his visa in 2009.

Further, if he had disclosed his manslaughter conviction, it was unlikely he would have ever been permitted to enter New Zealand, it said.

The appellants claim that he believes he was exonerated for this offence is not supported by any credible evidence and is not accepted.

The tribunal acknowledged Fiso faced separation from his daughters, but said they were now adults who were able to support themselves.

It ruled he should be deported.

Martin De Ruyter/Stuff

Those with certain criminal convictions are not permitted entry to New Zealand unless they obtain a character waiver. (File photo)

Those seeking tourist visas to New Zealand were not required to produce a police certificate, according to Immigration New Zealand.

Police checks were only carried out when people sought residence or applied for a temporary visa for 24 months or longer.

However, those applying for visitor visas were required to declare whether they were under investigation or had a criminal conviction in any country.

People with certain convictions were not permitted entry unless a character waiver was granted, Immigration New Zealands acting general manager of border and visa operations Stephanie Greathead said.

We rely on applicants to fill out forms truthfully and in full. It is an offence, under the Immigration Act, to make a false declaration in an application form.

Samoas Ministry of Justice and Courts Administration could not be reached for more details on Fisos manslaughter conviction.

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Convicted killer loses deportation appeal after living illegally in NZ for 12 years - Stuff.co.nz