Monthly Archives: February 2022

Introduction

Life expectancy at birth is the measure synthetically describing mortality in a population. It is estimated that 2030% of human life expectancy is determined by genetic factors, and 7080% is determined by environmental factors.1 Life expectancy at 5 years of age is similarly influenced by genetic factors, while it excludes neonatal, infant and early childhood mortality that depends heavily on environmental factors, especially hygiene and infection controls. These percentages, however, have not received a general scientific consensus. What is clearer is the genetic/environmental interplay that informs human health. Nutrition offers the means to improve health and well-being and acts as a significant predictive factor of healthy aging, so it appears as one of the major determinants of life expectancy.2

Extensive studies regarding the role of conventional meat containing diets and vegetarian diet (excluding meat3) in increasing our life expectancy have been controversial and circumstantial.2 Since the early Paleolithic period, meat consumption (understood as intake of parts of any animal bodies) has constituted a proportion of the hominin diet.4 It has been argued that consumption of meat, as a high-quality component of the hominin diet, allowed increases in body and brain sizes while at the same time permitting reduction of the size of the gastrointestinal tract producing typically human increased brain weight/body weight ratios.57

The effects of meat eating on human health have been debated in nutrition and diet research for a long time. Over the last 50 years, although the associations between meat eating and illness are circumstantial and controversial811 to some extent, they have prompted the spread of vegetarianism and veganism, based on the assumption that non-meat diets provide more health benefits than diets that include meat.1214 Moreover, it has been argued that vegetarianism and veganism form a part of trendy Western consumerist lifestyles only accessible to privileged white people.15 Vegetarianism that has been prevalent in Western countries has been subject to prejudice,15 low self-esteem, and low psychological adjustment.16

To date, there has been prevailing research stating that vegetarians tend to have greater life expectancy compared with non-vegetarians in some populations, particularly among Seventh-day Adventists.14,17 However, lack of population representativeness and failure to remove the influence of lifestyle in these studies have been heavily criticised.18 Thus, the suggestion that vegetarian diet improves longevity is questionable. For example, several studies with large sample sizes conducted in Australia18 and the United Kingdom19,20 did not show that meat eating correlated negatively with life expectancy after controlling for health-related elements of lifestyles.

Meat intake has been associated with adverse health issues, but the evidence in support of this hypothesis is limited and reliant on epidemiologic associations as opposed to clinical trials, which are supposed to reveal a cause-and-effect relation.2125 For instance, epidemiological studies in humans could not reveal a direct relationship between nitrite and/or nitrate, which has been assumed as the major carcinogenic factor derived from meat consumption, and cancer development.25

Before agriculture was introduced (circa 119000 years ago), human ancestors could not grow, harvest and store the majority of plant-based products as the staple food. Plant foods are mostly accessible only in particular seasons of the year.26 Contrariwise, animals, including large game, small animal, fish and some insects, could constantly provide humans with meat as the staple food.5,2630

Although modern agriculture diversifies our diet components and offers us many food choices, meat is still one of the significant food components worldwide.31 Modern nutritional science has revealed that meat provides complete nutrition. Modern food technology is capable of producing artificially all meat components, so that in special situations complete meat contents can be introduced into a diet without including actual muscle tissue of animals. This, however, does not argue against the benefits of eating meat. On the contrary, it supports that meat contents are necessary for good human nutrition. Availability of artificially produced meat may provide a solution for people who are ethically opposed to killing animals.

This population-based study, using data collected by the United Nations and its agencies, tests the hypothesis that, worldwide, populations with more meat consumption have greater life expectancies.

The data for this study were selected in consideration of the following criteria:

a) Listed all the countries/territories of the world (research subjects) with data on meat intake, and then collected other variables that were matched with this list. A set of data consisting of 175 populations with all required information available was obtained for this study. This covers approximately 90% of the world.

b) Considered the 3 years delayed presentation of effects of meat intake on metabolic/physical changes possibly affecting health adversely.

c) Included the major potential confounding factors, such as total calories consumed, wealth measured by the gross domestic product (GDP PPP), urbanization, obesity and education levels.

A whole set of data is attached to this article (Appendix 1).

1) The independent variables are the cross-population food supply data32 on food groups of total meats (flesh of animals used for food, The FAO 201833), cereals, starchy roots, sugar and sweeteners (sugars). These variables are expressed in grams per person per day in each population. In order to avoid random errors occurring during the data collection and integration, each variable was averaged for the years 20112013. These most up-to-date data were captured from the Food Balance Sheet published by the United Nations Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO).

Cereals, starchy roots and sugars are primarily energy sources that do not provide a large nutrient range. They have been clustered and new variable carbohydrate crops was created as the independent contrast variable to meat. Another reason for clustering is that meat used to provide over 50% energy needs before the introduction of agriculture circa 119000 years ago,26 while carbohydrate foods eventually became a source of over 50% of current human energy needs.32

Additionally, we extracted the world meat intake data (g/day/capita) for all the years with the available FAO data (19612013) as the independent variable to correlate with the worldwide longitudinal life expectancy for the same years.

In terms of meat source included in this study, it is necessary to highlight that, in order to reflect the real meat consumption in human diet, we included total meat intake, instead of a particular animal meat or a particular group of animal meat as the predicting variable. As per the FAO, meat is defined as flesh of animals used for food, and total meat includes beef and veal, buffalo meat, pig meat, mutton and lamb, goat meat, horse meat, chicken meat, goose meat, duck meat, turkey meat, rabbit meat, game meat and offal.33

2) The dependent variables in the analysis were the population level life expectancy at birth (e(0)), and at 5 years (e(5)) for both sexes calculated for the period of 20102015 by region, subregion and country published by the United Nations.34 The child mortality rate before age 5 years (average of years 20112013) was also extracted from the World Bank data35 as another dependent variable.

3) The potential confounding variables are population-specific data on:

i) Total calories intake (kcal/capita/day) which was the average for the 3 years (201113) as per FAO Food Balance Sheet32

The relationship between total energy intake, rather than that of particular nutrients in the diet, and life span has been debated in animal and human models3638 so it needed to be controlled for.

ii) GDP PPP, purchasing power parity in 2011 US dollars for comparability among countries as per the World Bank data39

Income and wealth, as a measure of socioeconomic status, have been less frequently used but are an important variable along with education and occupation in affecting human health and life span.40,41

iii) Urbanization, the percentage of the population living in urban areas as determined by the United Nations (UN) Population Divisions World Urbanization Prospects42

Urbanization implies considerable changes in the living habits of extant humans, easy access to health care,43 how they earn their livelihoods, dietary regimes, and the wide range of environmental factors to which humans are exposed.4346 Consequently, some researchers have assumed that urban populations are healthier than their rural counterparts.43

iv) Obesity levels as measured by the prevalence of adult individuals with the body mass index (BMI) equal to or exceeding 30 kg/m2 were obtained from WHO.47 Obesity is a result of metabolic imbalances and is considered as a risk factor for a number of non-communicable diseases.

We have also used information on the percentage of vegetarians in countries (N=30) that had this information available and on the level of education as measured by the percentage of adults (>25 years old) with completed primary school education (World Development Indicators).48 These latter data were available only for 103 countries, and the rationale for exploring the relationship between the level of education and e(0) is that education may affect eating habits and domestic food preparation.

Our data analysis proceeded in five steps to examine the association between meat intake and life expectancies and child mortality at the population level:

1. Scatter plots were produced with the cross-population data (not transformed) in Microsoft Excel to explore and visualize the strength, shape and direction of worldwide cross-sectional association between meat intake and life expectancy and mortality variables.

To highlight the hypothesis and facilitate the readership to understand the meaning of this study, the correlation between total meat intake and e(0) was explored in each WHO region with the scatterplots.

2. Bivariate (Pearsons r and Spearmans rho) correlations were performed to evaluate the direction and strength of the correlations between all the variables across all countries. Log transformed data were used to improve homoscedasticity of data distributions. Curve estimation function of the SPSS was used to explore shape of relationships between logarithmed data. In all cases linear relationships were better or equal to the long list of possible other relationships including logarithmic, inverse, quadratic, cubic, compound, power, growth, S-curve, exponential and logistic. Distributions of residuals around linear regression lines were close to normal (Appendix 2). Thus, linear relationships were consistently used in our analyses of log-transformed variables.

Nonparametric correlation analysis was conducted to examine whether the Pearsons correlations between logarithmed values of life expectancy/mortality and all variables differ due to potentially non-homoscedastic distributions of variables.

3. Partial correlation of Pearsons moment-product approach was performed to identify the worldwide correlations between meat intake and life expectancy/mortality independent of the potential confounding variables, energy intake, urbanization, GDP PPP and obesity.

4. Standard multiple linear regression was conducted to identify and rank the variables that had the greatest predicting effects on life expectancies and mortality.

Since life expectancies and mortality measures are strongly correlated (Table 1), most further analyses were carried out only for the life expectancy at birth.

Table 1 Pearson's r (Above the Diagonal) and Nonparametric rho (Below the Diagonal) Coefficients of Correlation Between All Variables Studied (Log-Transformed Variables)

To compare the magnitudes of contribution of meat intake and carbohydrate crops to life expectancy stepwise linear regression analysis was repeated twice when meat intake and carbohydrate crops were excluded, respectively. The decrease of R2 due to exclusions of meat intake and carbohydrate crops was respectively calculated and compared.

5. Countries grouped for the association analysis.

Human diet patterns, varying in different food components, may be affected by the food availability type in a particular region, socio-economic status and by cultural beliefs. In order to demonstrate that a correlation exists between meat availability and life expectancy regardless of these factors, countries were grouped for correlation analyses. The criteria for grouping countries were:

1) Developed and developing world defined by the United Nations;49

2) Six regions grouped by WHO:50 African Region (AFRO), Region of the Americas (AMRO), South-East Asia Region (SEARO), European Region (EURO), Eastern Mediterranean Region (EMRO), and Western Pacific Region (WPRO);

3) Countries sharing specific characteristics such as geography, culture, development role or socio-economic status,51 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD),52 Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC),53 Southern African Development Community (SADC),54 the Arab World,55 Latin America (LA), and Asia Cooperation Dialogue (ACD).56 All the population listings were sourced from their official websites for matching, except LA which is self-classified based on the region primarily speaking romance languages.

4) In particular, two country clusters that are associated with overall health benefits are created for exploring the relationships between the level of total meat intake and e(0):

A list of countries that have the percentage of vegetarian population segment was accessed through the extensive internet search. Its summary can be accessed at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism_by_country#cite_note-2. This list was matched to the populations with the data on life expectancy.

Countries primarily on the Mediterranean diet were grouped. The Mediterranean diet is a way of eating that is based on the traditional cuisines of Greece, Italy and other countries that border the Mediterranean Sea. It includes meat but also primarily plant-based food, such as olive oil, grains, vegetables, fruits, nuts and herbs. Due to the combination of food components, the Mediterranean diet is considered a comprehensively healthy diet and has been associated with a reduction in all-cause mortality in most of observational studies.57,58 However, it is not clear if a portion of a particular food component, such as total meat can improve its health effect leading to greater life expectancy. We extracted the countries bordering the Mediterranean Sea and matched them to the list of countries with available data on e(0) for creating a country group, Mediterranean diet.

5) Countries above and below the average meat intake The FAO 2018.33

The population list was also stratified into two population groupings based on our calculated mean daily meat intake. The high meat intake group was comprised of populations with more than 138.82 g/day/capita meat consumption on daily basis; and the low meat intake group included those populations with less than 138.82 g/day/capita on daily basis. The relationships between meat eating and life expectancies were examined in these two population groups, respectively.

Bivariate correlations, partial correlation of Pearsons moment-product and multiple linear regression analysis were conducted with SPSS v. 25 on the log-transformed variables. Microsoft Excel was used for scatter plots of raw data (not log transformed). The significance of association was kept at the 0.05 level, but 0.01 and 0.001 levels were also reported. Standard multiple linear regression analysis criteria were set at probability of F to enter 0.05 and probability of F to remove 0.10.

Figure 1 shows, globally, the cross-sectional association between meat intake and life expectancies and child mortality. Life expectancies show linear positive regression on meat consumption, while child mortality is negatively exponentially related to meat intake. All regressions show strong correlations meat intake explains at least 50% of variance in life expectancy and mortality.

Figure 1 The worldwide cross-sectional association between meat intake and life expectancy at birth, at 5 years of age and child mortality below the age of 5 years.

Notes: Data sources: Meat consumption is expressed in g/capita/day and extracted from the FAO website. Life expectancy data are measured with at birth and 5 years old respectively and extracted from the United Nations. Mortality rate was extracted from the World Bank website.

The relationship trend was observed in the WHO regions except in SEARO (Figure 2).

Figure 2 The relationship between meat intake and life expectancy at birth in each WHO region.

Notes: The cross-sectional association between predicting variable (meat intake) and dependent variables (life expectancy at birth) was graphed for each WHO region in the scatterplots above, respectively. Data sources: meat consumption is expressed in g/capita/day and extracted from the FAO website. Life expectancy is measured at birth. Unit of axis: the X-axis Meat consumption (kg/person/year); the Y-axis Life expectancy at birth (year).

Table 1 presents, worldwide, that, in Pearsons r analysis, e(0) shows significant and strong correlation with meat intake (r=0.710, p<0.001) and weak and negative correlation with carbohydrate crops intake (r=0.111, p=0.150). Other measures of life expectancy and mortality show similar relationships. Nonparametric correlations indicate similar relationships between variables studied (Table 1).

Table 2 indicates that in partial correlation analysis life expectancies and child mortality correlate significantly with meat intake when controlling for carbohydrate crops intake, urbanization, GDP PPP, calories, and obesity. However, with meat intake and the same potential confounding factors being kept constant, carbohydrate crops do not correlate with life expectancy and child mortality at all. This may imply that meat intake correlates with life expectancy not because of its energy contribution, but rather due to other nutrient effects.

Table 2 Pearson's r, and Partial Correlations Between Meat Intake and Life Expectancies and Child Mortality

Table 3 shows that meat intake is identified as the one of the variables that have a significant influence on life expectancies and child mortality when all the six variables, GDP PPP, calories, meat, urban, obesity and carbohydrate crops are included as predictors in multivariate linear regression analysis.

Table 3 Results of Multiple Linear Regression Analyses to Identify Significant Predictors of Life Expectancy e(0), e(5) and Child Mortality (n=171175)

When meat is excluded as one of the predicting variables respectively in linear regression, adjusted R2 decreases by about 0.03. Carbohydrate crops are not a significant predictor of life expectancies/mortality in either model regardless of whether meat is included as one of the predicting variables or not. Statistically, this means that carbohydrate foods do not contribute to the change of life expectancy nor child mortality. This finding corresponds to the lack of correlation of carbohydrate intake with life expectancies in Pearsons r correlation, Spearmans rho and partial correlation analysis.

Table 4 shows that, in general, meat intake is correlated with life expectancy in different population groupings regardless of cultural backgrounds, socioeconomic status, meat intake level and geographic locations of the clustered countries.

Table 4 Correlation of Meat Intake to Life Expectancy e(0) in Different Country Groupings

Meat intake correlates with life expectancy in population groupings with high meat intake (r=0.442, p<0.001, n=83), low meat intake (r=0.436, p<0.001, n=88), high socioeconomic status (r=0.555, p<0.001, n=45) and low socioeconomic status (r=0.620. p<0.001, n=126).

Based on the WHO region classifications, the correlation is observed in all regions except in SEARO. This may be due to similar diet patterns in SEARO countries with little difference in the amount of meat intake and similar life expectancies. This is statistically presented with the smallest standard deviations of meat intake (SD=13.21) and e(0) (SD=3.50) compared to other WHO Regions.

The correlations between meat intake and life expectancy are also observed in country groupings of the Arab World (geographically scattered in Asia and Africa, r=0.760, p<0.001), LA (r=0.504, p<0.05) and LAC (located in Americas only, r=0.469, p<0.001) featured with the similar cultures, respectively. The trends are also present in functional alliances, albeit some comprise developed countries only and others comprise both developing and developed countries (Table 4). Education has two possible effects on longevity and nutrition. It potentially improves health care, especially care for child health, and it may influence the food preparation in households and individual food choices that are partially informed by understanding the physiological role of nutrients. Since we could obtain uniform data for education levels for a smaller number of countries than those included in main analyses, we have conducted some analyses separately. We have chosen the percentage of adults who completed full primary education as the index of education in the country. This has been done in preference to other education indices that separate females from males or use higher levels of educational achievement because these characterise only parts of the entire population. In the partial correlation analysis keeping all other variables statistically constant, education correlates significantly (p=0.001) but weakly (r=0.334) with life expectancy and at a similar level (r=0.237, p=0.021) with meat consumption.

In the regression analysis (Table 5), education is an important contributor to life expectancy similar to caloric consumption while meat consumption has a significant effect on life expectancy at age 5 years.

Table 5 A Multiple Regression Analysis to Identify Significant Predictors of the Life Expectancy at Birth (e(0)) in a Set of 103 Countries for Which Information About the Education Level Was Available

Interestingly, among countries with available percentages of vegetarians, meat intake still has a moderately strong correlation with e(0) (r=0.667, p<0.001, n=30, Table 4). Unsurprisingly, populations with lower percentage of vegetarians have greater life expectancy, though the relationship is only marginally significant likely due to small sample size (r=0.303, p=0.0518, n=30).

In the Mediterranean diet country grouping, the strong relationship trend was observed that high total meat intake is associated with greater e(0) (r=0.860, p<0.001, n=21, Table 4). This may suggest that, regardless of suggested beneficial health effects of Mediterranean diet, more total meat intake may benefit e(0) in the populations primarily on this diet.

This ecological study examined the relationship between meat intake and life expectancy at birth e(0), at age 5 years e(5) and child mortality at a population level. Our statistical analysis results indicate that countries with the greater meat intake have greater life expectancy and lower child mortality. This relationship is independent of the effects of caloric intake, socioeconomic status (GDP PPP), obesity, urbanization (lifestyle) and education. Of course, nutritional variations among countries include many more variables than those included into this study. Diet composition, food preparation methods, cultural dietary constraints, availability of some nutrients and a number of other variables should have been considered to obtain a complete picture of meats importance in human diet. However, even with these possible analytical inadequacies, our statistical analyses indicate a significant role that meat plays in influencing variation of survival and mortality.

Meat has advantages over food of plant origin in containing complete protein with all essential amino acids, is rich in vitamins, in particular vitamin B12, and all essential minerals. It has a significant role not only for maintenance of health, development and proper growth59 but also has played an important evolutionary role in ancestral hominins for approximately 2.6 million years.60,61

Benefits of meat eating include better physical growth and development,62 optimal breastfeeding of neonates, and offspring growth.63 Human adaptation to meat eating and mechanism to digest and metabolise meat6,59,62,6467 have been supported by studies in human dietary evolution. This may also be reflected in the importance of meat eating for humans whole life span.5,60,68 Culturally, meat production and eating have also been integrated into human societies.62,6972

A study of more than 218,000 adults from over 50 countries around the world suggests that consuming unprocessed meat regularly can reduce the risk of early death and can increase human longevity.73 A recent dietary advice published by Lancet Public Health advocates an increase of dietary meat in order to benefit our heart health and longevity.74 This study also highlights that saturated fat in meat may be cardio protective, as well as, that meat contains many vitamins and the essential amino acids for human health and well-being.73,74

Recent epidemiological literature highlights that increasing meat consumption, especially in its processed forms, may have adverse health effects, such as cancer,8 cardiovascular disease,75 obesity31,7678 and diabetes.79 However, there has been no clinical trial evidence to consolidate the putative negative effects of processed meat consumption for human health.21 The aforementioned epidemiological literature is not reflected in the healthy food guidelines published by the government authorities for general public. These guidelines always include meat as a major human dietary component. One reason for their position could be a lack of evidence-based research that demonstrates negative aspects of meat consumption in the general human population.8083 Statistically, the finding of this study unequivocally indicates that meat eating benefits life expectancy independently.

Meat contains high protein with all the essential amino acids, and is a good source of minerals (iron, phosphorus, selenium and zinc) and vitamins (B12, B6, K, choline, niacin, riboflavin). Simply put a human animal consuming a body of another animal gets practically all constituent compounds of its own body. Recently, massive agricultural production and advanced food manufacturing technologies have made it possible to replace the beneficial nutrients of meat with other agricultural industry products and/or synthetic chemicals. For example, proteins are easy to obtain by incorporating nuts and beans into diet. Vitamin B12 can be absorbed adequately from cheese, eggs, milk, and artificially fortified pills, and iron can be found in legumes, grains, nuts, and a range of vegetables.84,85 Relying on meat nutrient replacements and available food products, well-planned vegetarian diets, including vegan diets, are nutritionally adequate and are appropriate for various individuals during all stages of life,84,85 but it is only because their nutritional composition adequately imitates and replaces what is commonly provided by meat. These technological developments provide an opportunity for individuals to select their dietary behaviours based on religious and ethical concerns. Traditionally, meat has been included in many human diets in order to provide humans engaged in high physical activity levels with substrate for muscle tissue synthesis and recovery support, increased bone density, and oxygen transport.84 Currently, however, dieticians are able to construct sport-specific diets for athletes based on vegetarian foods.84

Since many beneficial nutrients found in meat can now be replaced by vegetarian sources, increasing numbers of people have questioned whether meat consumption is necessary.84 Over the past decades, a number of studies have advocated that vegetarian or plant-based diets may contribute to low mortality rate, and high life expectancy. These studies have received criticism due to questionable study designs:

1) Health effects of a vegetarian diet may be only a perceived benefit. The correlation identified between vegetarianism and high life expectancy may not necessarily depend on their diets, but rather on the lifestyles that vegetarians maintain.18 It is important to acknowledge that vegetarians (especially in western countries) tend to be more health-conscious, with overall healthier lifestyle patterns than other people. Two studies conducted among British people have shown that vegetarians and non-vegetarians had very little20 and even no difference19 in life expectancy if other healthy lifestyle factors were considered. A study on the cohort consisting of 243,096 adults in Australia revealed that the protective effects of variations of vegetarian diets (semi-vegetarians or pesco-vegetarians) on life expectancy depended on multiple potential confounding factors, such as age, smoking and alcohol consumption, history of type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular diseases.18 Therefore, it is apparent that the advocacy of vegetarianism to increase longevity may have been biased.15

2) Vegetarianism study designs were flawed in that research subjects were not representative of the general population.86 With the exception of India and some Buddhist cultures, vegetarianism is practiced by a small percentage of world population. On this note, the Seventh-day Adventist cohort has been over researched in order to demonstrate the relationship between vegetarianism and life expectancy.1214 However, studies in non-Adventist vegetarians have shownnil or very weak correlation between vegetarian diet and longevity.86 Importantly, the Seventh-day Adventist population engages in a beneficial life-style, which includes non-smoking, marital maintenance, regular exercise and maintaining normal body weight.87,88

Furthermore, a study conducted by Singh et al. showed that vegetarians did not benefit from their meat-free diet.12 However, Singh et al. have proposed that low meat consumption increases life expectancy in humans.12 This claim does not concur with our finding, which argues that more meat eating may increase human life expectancy. This discrepancy may arise due to several biases in Singh et als study: 1) The cohorts recruited for the study were not representative of global ethnicities. All the cohorts were derived from developed countries only (the United Kingdom, Germany and the United States). A majority of individuals in these countries did not succumb to mortality due to nutritional deficiency from low meat consumption, as they had access to nutrition supplements and good-quality Medical services.8993 2) More potential confounders of the relationship between meat intake and life expectancy, such as total diet intake and urban lifestyle, could have been included for data analysis (with the exception of aging). 3) Levels of meat intake were only considered as three categories: zero, very low and low. This reduced the accuracy of the correlation due to the limited variation of meat intake quantity as the independent variable.

People on vegetarian diets may be able to maintain health because they avoid potential meat-related nutrient deficiencies through one or more of the following ways:

1) Taking meat nutrient replacements to meet essential nutrient needs.

2) Eating a vegetarian diet and identifying as vegetarian are two different things. Ruby (2012) and Rosenfeld and Burrow3,69 have concluded that the majority of self-identified vegetarians may still eat meat occasionally. This would allow them to absorb the unique nutrients from meat.69

3) Many vegetarians do not follow meat-free diets from birth. Instead, many have decided to avoid eating meat at some point during their adult lives.94 Thus, their dietary limitations missed the period of critical growth and development childhood and early adolescence.

4) Many vegetarians include dairy products in their diets (eg, Hindus). These contain animal proteins and minerals in proportions similar to meat.

Saturated fat in red meat has been associated with the onset of atherosclerosis. However, this hypothesis has been based on observational or animal studies, instead of randomised controlled trials, a standard study designed to identify the causal relationship.95 Therefore, this conclusion has been subject to debate.96,97 Studies have revealed that low-fat diets reduced serum cholesterol, but they did not reduce cardiovascular disease incidence or mortality.98 The healthy diet recommendation advises people that their diet should have less saturated fat, but more polyunsaturated fat. Interestingly, when saturated fat is replaced with polyunsaturated fat in diet, cardiovascular events or mortality are not convincingly reduced.99 We are advancing the correlation between total meat, instead of red meat, and life expectancy. This hypothesis is supported by a systematic review concluding that total meat consumption did not facilitate the onset of atherosclerosis.100

Another finding in this study is that carbohydrate crops correlate with life expectancy weakly and negatively. This finding is supported by several ethnological and archaeological studies, which concluded that the transition to cereal-based diets caused a reduction in life expectancy74,101103 because cereals tend to have lower nutritional value.

The correlation between meat and life expectancy was observed in all country groupings except in SEARO where small variation of meat consumption and life expectancies reduces covariance. It is worth noting that, in this study, countries on the Mediterranean diet have greater e(0) if there is more total meat in their diet. This finding may be sufficient to form the contrast to either beneficial or detrimental health benefit of the Mediterranean diet. Socioeconomic level is associated with mortality and e(0) due to a variety of reasons. However, the majority of countries bordering Mediterranean Sea are developing economics, and have high mortality rates for chronic diseases, such as cardiovascular diseases and cancers. The correlation between the Mediterranean diet and low incidence or low prevalence rates of chronic diseases might be sporadic in the studies in the populations surrounding the Mediterranean Sea because their high mortality rates or low e(0) have eliminated the patients with chronic diseases.

Previous studies controversially showed the health effects of selected meat groups, in particular red meat, on human health.100 However, a series of rigorous systematic reviews which were simultaneously published, concluded that there is a lack of sufficient evidence to show that red meat and processed meat contributes to cardiovascular diseases,104106 cancer mortality and incidence104,106,107 and all-cause mortality.105 Although the red meat and processed meat have been associated with negative health outcomes, meat eating people are still determined to be omnivores due to their values and preferences.108 Therefore, dietary guidelines recommendation published in a reputable nutrition and diet journal advised that adults can maintain their current level of intake of red meat and processed meat.109

Contrary to the majority of studies that have focused on health effect of red meat, this study argues that total meat consumption, in general, benefits people health, which leads to greater longevity. This hypothesis is supported by a study conducted by Campbell advocating that total meat consumption may offset the detrimental effect of red meat on peoples health.100,110

Several strong pointsin this study need to be noted:

1) Independent variable, total meat (animal flesh), instead of different categories of meat was selected for the correlation analysis,4,111 which allows us 1) To reflect that human ancestors ate any available meat, and also various modern populations consume all sorts of meat in broad circumstances.31,112 2) To remove the potential and conflicting influence of different food cooking methods on health.113118 3) To eliminate the bias from processing aids, preservatives and additives in ready-to-eat meat, which may pose adverse health effects to humans.8,119

2) Populations across the globe (representing about 90% of extant humans) were considered in this study as units. Data included in this study were aggregated at the population level, so that they include information relevant for all people in each population. Thus, we did not study a sample but practically the whole population. This had the advantage in overcoming the common biases in studies of limited sample size.

3) Data representativeness determines who the study results are targeted at. Apparently, data representativeness must be considered for all studies in order to avoid a defect in the study design.18 The argument that vegetarians have long life spans is questionable since most of the studies supporting this statement were conducted within the specific groups of people, such as Seventh-day Adventists. This argument may also be biased due to the healthy cohort effect, which drives health conscious people to be more likely to be recruited and remain in the study cohort than non-health conscious people.15,120

4) Reporting bias in nutrition studies has been a constant issue as food intake data must be reported by volunteers accurately and truthfully. However, a number of studies have shown that people tend to underreport energy intake121 and overreport healthy food consumption.122

5) Cross-sectional data at a population level used in this study may offer more accurate estimates of e(0) and meat intake than individual-based data adopted in nutrition studies. Data on e(0) and meat intake in this study were collected by observing all the populations at the same period of time, which provides general comparability.

6) Compared to previous sample-based studies (ecological studies posited on collecting relevant data), more potential confounders have been included in this study for analysing the relationship between meat intake and e(0).

Firstly, the intrinsic limitation conceptualized as the ecological bias or ecological fallacy exists in this ecological analysis.31,123 Population level data have been applied for analysing the correlation between meat intake and e(0). Therefore, this correlation might not necessarily be valid at an individual level.76,123

Secondly, the nature of the relationship between meat intake and longevity is longitudinal. However, the method adopted in this study is cross-sectional data analysis, which may not necessarily reflect the actual longitudinal relationship in particular populations.

However, the constant and significant correlation between meat intake and e(0) may increase the possibility of the true correlation at an individual level. The relationship identified in this study may have shed light at further studies within the cohorts with large sample size, high representativeness and long life period at an individual level.76,123

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Meat intake is associated with life expectancy | IJGM - Dove Medical Press

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There are inefficiencies in biopharma R&D and university tech transfer that new Web3 marketplace tools will address. Molecule has pioneered a new type of liquid asset class, the IP-NFT (a non fungible token that holds intellectual property) that is one such tool. With new forms of governance via DAOs, such as VitaDAO, and valuation of IP, such as IP-NFTs, moves early-stage intellectual property into Web3 to allow for greater liquidity, discoverability, and reduced legal complexity by standardizing licensing terms.

About Apollo Health VenturesApollo Health Ventures is a transatlantic venture capital firm specialized in developing and investing in data-driven biotechnology and health tech ventures. Apollo Health Ventures invests in game-changing companies at the seed or early stage and builds companies within the aging sector. Apollos team consists of entrepreneurs, seasoned biotech investors and scientists with remarkable track records in life science investments and venture creation.

About MoleculeMolecule is a decentralized biotech protocol building a web3 marketplace for research-related IP and scalable frameworks to build biotech DAOs. They enable quick and easy funding for academics and biotech companies globally, while enabling patient, researcher, and investor communities to directly fund, govern, and own research-related IP. Molecule democratizes biopharma research and development.

About VitaDAOVitaDAO is a DAO collective for community-governed, decentralized drug development. Its core mission is the acceleration of research and development (R&D) in the longevity space and the extension of human life and healthspan. To achieve this, VitaDAO funds and digitizes research and the resulting assets using IP-NFTs and other innovative financialization approaches.

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VitaDAO and Molecule AG partner with Apollo Health Ventures to build the longevity biotech & Web3 ecosystem - Microbioz India

How are you? Are you happy? Would you like to be a little bit happier? Or a lot? On a scale of one to ten, what would you give your happiness level today? Nobody feels like a ray of sunshine all day every day, nor is that a realistic goal, but it is quite possible to make your days a bit brighter. All it takes is the right tips and tricks, and a commitment to use them!

One very important caveat: mood disorders are very real conditions, just like any other disease, and require medical intervention to be managed. This article in no way suggests that a mood disorder or other mental condition can be cured or managed without help. If you feel you are in crisis, call 911 or go to your nearest emergency room.

Coping with anxiety, depression, a family trauma or illness can be too much to handle on your own. INTEGRIS Mental Health is committed to helping you meet these challenges by offering a variety of treatment options, and a 24/7 crisis line to get you pointed in the right direction. Learn more about our mental health services here.

Youll notice that some of the happiness-boosting tips weve assembled are also often recommended for improving overall health and wellness. Thats no accident. Some of the basics of self-care, such as eating well and getting plenty of sleep, help us in a variety of ways, physical and mental.

Help someone else. Turns out the human brain is wired for altruism. Were taught from childhood that it is better to give than to receive, and theres lots of evidence to suggest its true. We can now see, thanks to MRI technology, that the act of giving to others lights up the same parts of our brains as do food or sex.

Experiences are more important than possessions. New shoes may make us smile initially, but the happiness they bring fades quickly. The joy we feel when we focus on experiences is longer-lived in part because they foster in us a greater sense of vitality. We also often share experiences with others, which generates happiness.

Practice gratitude. Try this: each day for ten weeks, keep a gratitude journal. Write down three things you are grateful for each day. In an experiment at the University of California, Davis, three groups of volunteers kept journals. One group wrote about life events, another wrote about hassles in their lives and the third wrote about what they were grateful for. At the end, the gratitude group reported feeling more optimistic and satisfied with their lives.

Learn. Conquering new concepts or ideas helps build confidence and pride. US NEWS tells us that education has been widely documented by researchers as the single variable tied most directly to improved health and longevity. And when people are intensely engaged in doing and learning new things, their well-being and happiness can blossom.

Get more sleep. Seven to nine hours a night is the gold standard. Good sleep is crucial to having active, happy days. If youre having trouble falling or staying asleep, its worth talking to your doctor.

Get older. One of the biggest perks of having a few decades in the rear-view mirror is that our happiness tends to increase as we age. Multiple studies indicate that as we age, we become happier and more satisfied with life. It may be a matter of having more perspective, but whatever it is, well take it.

Smile. We know. Being told to smile can be annoying, so we are merely making a suggestion. BECAUSE practicing real smiles, AKA smiles that include your eyes, is a proven way to feel less distress in a distressing situation. In the word of psychology, this is called the facial feedback hypothesis, which suggests that our emotional experience is partly influenced by our facial movements. Its a mind-body connection.

Dark chocolate. The darker the better. Its science! Chocolate is a mood booster because eating it causes the release of endorphins in the brain. It also contains chemicals known to lift our mood such as phenylethylamine (a natural antidepressant) and tryptophan, which is linked to the production of serotonin, a neurotransmitter that produces feeling of happiness.

Wake up earlier. First, make sure youre sleeping seven to nine hours a night. Next, build a pleasant morning buffer into your day. You should enjoy your mornings, which is hard to do if youre running around trying to get out the door. An extra half an hour (or even 15 minutes) will give you some space and youll notice a shift in attitude right away.

Manage your stress. Get better at time management if youve got too much on your plate. Something as simple as a to-do list can give you a sense of control and order, and lets face it, it feels so good to cross things off the list.

Tidy up. When we think of self-care, cleaning house doesnt often make the list but it should. In 2016, a study out of the University of New Mexico found that clutter directly interfered with folks ability to feel pleasure in a room. On the flip side, a clean, organized space can increase productivity, boost confidence and imbue its occupants with a sense of control, accomplishment and clarity.

Start a meditation practice. Its easier than you think. Mindful.org suggests getting started this way:

Put down your phone. Unless youre keeping an online gratitude journal, that is. If you find yourself scrolling through social media, stop. A 2017 article in Forbes (and many subsequent studies) indicate that the more we use social media, the less happy we are. In fact, social media is known to increase anxiety, loneliness and depression.

Take a walk. A walk is good for your mood, your mind and your body. Tie your laces and go!

Avoid gossip. Fact: gossip may feel good in the moment, but really it causes stress. Its not helpful and it immerses both the teller and the listener in negativity.

Dont drink too much. When its been a rough day, an alcoholic beverage of choice can sound like just the ticket. Alcohol blunts our feelings, so if we feel bad it will make us feel less bad - BUT - it can also crank up feelings of anger and depression or make you feel aggressive.

Look at the stars. Researchers have found that there is a link between experiencing a sense of awe with feeling greater satisfaction and less stress.

Dont believe everything you think. In other words, challenge negative thoughts. Heres a technique: write down your negative thought. Maybe its something like I am having problems at school/work. I dont think Im very smart. Next, challenge that thought. Is there any evidence behind it? Am I misinterpreting the situation? What would someone else think if I told them my thoughts?

Read a story of adventure. Turns out you can reap the benefits of an awe-inspiring experience, like stargazing, by reading about one. Pick up a copy of Moby Dick, by Herman Melville; The Call of the Wild, by Jack London; or Wild, by Cheryl Strayed.

Hang out with happy people. Motivational coaches will tell you that you are an amalgam of the top five percent of the people you spend the most time with. Makes sense to hang with the happy crowd, then, doesnt it?

Be your own best friend. Treat yourself like you would a dear friend. When youre feeling sad or negative, ask yourself what advice youd give a friend feeling the same way.

Breathe. Controlled breathing is an ancient practice and science is beginning to understand that its benefits are real. Do it any time you need or want to: take a deep breath. Pause. Exhale slowly as you count to five. Repeat four more times. This low-key practice can help reduce feelings of anxiety, depression and more.

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22 Ways to Be a Little Bit Happier Every Day in 2022 - Integris

Well before the pandemic raised concerns around the health impacts of social distancing, isolation from others and feelings of loneliness have been shown to be contributing factors to higher rates of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in older adults.

Now, new research in older women in particular shows that isolation and loneliness are associated with an increased risk for a composite endpoint of major CVD, which includes heart disease, stroke, and death from cardiovascular disease.

The 8-year prospective cohort study, conducted from March2011 to March2019 in the United States, showed that social isolation and loneliness were associated with an increased risk for incident CVD in postmenopausal women by 8% and 5%, respectively, after adjustment for health behaviors and outcomes. For older women who experience high levels of both social isolation and loneliness, the increased risk was up to 27%.

Results of the study were published in the February issue of JAMA Network Open.

Several previous trials have indicated that social isolation and loneliness are prevalent among older adults, and are associated with CVD risk factors, such as elevated blood pressure, cholesterol levels, obesity, smoking, physical inactivity, and poor diet.

Given that women make up the majority of older adults in the United States, targeting postmenopausal women was a particular area of interest. For this analysis, the researchers focused on women 65 to 99years of age who had previously participated in the Women's Health Initiative Extension StudyII and had no history of myocardial infarction (MI), stroke, or coronary heart disease.

Over the duration of the study, information was gathered from 57,825 women with an average age of 79years. Participants responded to questionnaires designed to assess social isolation in 2011 or 2012, and then were sent a second questionnaire assessing loneliness and social support in 2014 or 2015. A total of 1599 CVD events occurred over 186,762 person-years of follow-up.

Results shows that social isolation and loneliness were tied to heightened CVD risk in this population, even after adjustment for behaviors that already affect cardiovascular health, such as smoking, poor diet, and sedentary lifestyle.

High vs low social isolation was associated with major CVD, with a hazard ratio of 1.18 (95%CI, 1.13- 1.23). The hazard ratio for high vs low loneliness was 1.14 (95%CI, 1.10- 1.18).

After additional adjustment for health behaviors and health status, those hazard ratios were 1.08 for social isolation (95%CI, 1.03- 1.12) and 1.05 for loneliness (95%CI, 1.01- 1.09).

"Women with both high social isolation and high loneliness scores had a 13.0% to 27.0% higher risk of incident CVD than did women with low social isolation and low loneliness scores," the authors report.

"This is a strong signal to us that there is some pathway that is causing higher levels of cardiovascular disease among people who are socially isolated and lonely," said coauthor John Bellettiere, PhD, MPH, assistant professor of epidemiology at the UCSanDiego Herbert Wertheim School of Public Health. "I think further epidemiological investigation will go into understanding what those pathways are [so] we might be able to come up with alternate solutions."

The fact that social isolation and loneliness were also distinct factors for increasing CVD risk in this population group was another key study finding. "In my mind, those two things are almost the same, [yet] there are a lot of people who have high levels of social isolation but they're not lonely," said Bellettiere. "Understanding the whole dynamic between the lack of relationship between these two constructs and that each of them are independently important in CVD in postmenopausal women was a surprise."

Interestingly, social support was not a significant effect modifier of these associations, they note.

"I always thought social support would buffer any type of loneliness or isolation, but as we tested in the study, I don't think it functions that way," says lead author Natalie Golaszewski, PhD, a post-doctoral scholar at the Herbert Wertheim School of Public Health and Human Longevity Science. She cautioned that this could be due to the fact that too few women who were assessed had low levels of social support to see a modifying effect.

"Those women who were socially isolated and lonely also had poor health behaviors and health outcomes, so it warrants more research around what is the relationship between feeling [this way] and your behaviors," says Golaszewski.

Kathryn Rexrode, MD, MPH, chief of the Division of Women's Health, Department of Medicine, Brigham and Women's Hospital, Boston, noted that having a more granular look at the factors that affected study participants such as race, economic status, and living conditions would have been beneficial in determining different interventions to reduce social isolation and loneliness.

"If I think about my own patients and their different living conditions, there is a dramatic difference if you're a senior in assisted living with a lot of social interaction compared to someone alone in an apartment with poor physical function," she said. "I think we have to look at structural issues, including financial resources, that might contribute to social isolation and loneliness."

Given that there is a very clear relation between social isolation, loneliness, and poor health outcomes, including cardiovascular disease, the next step would be to focus on developing ways to identify people who are at risk, Rexrode said. "I do think this study stresses the need to think about effective interventions to reduce social isolation and loneliness, especially with our aging population."

Researchers say measuring social isolation and loneliness as part of standard primary care practice could go a long way in identifying patients at risk. They suggest asking a few simple questions around living conditions or creating an index score to get a pulse on a patient's social connection.

The National Institute on Aging has also developed a Social Isolation and Loneliness Outreach Toolkit. "This toolkit includes a whole host of ideas for supporting older adults in reducing social isolation and lonelinessand there may be some interventions that resonate," said Bellettiere.

Beyond social supports, there is potential for future treatments that could help patients at risk, he said. "I believe if we can isolate some of the physiologic pathways, interventions specifically tailored to that pathway could be developed, potentially alternative mechanisms that might be able to shift the levers that are contributing to cardiovascular disease."

The study was supported by unrestricted grants from the NIA, HIH, and National Institute of Diabetes and Digestion and Kidney Diseases. Bellettiere reported receiving grants from the Tobacco-Related Disease Research Program (TRDRP) during the conduct of the study, and personal fees from Meta outside the submitted work. Disclosures for coauthors appear in the published study.

JAMA Netw Open. 2022;5:e2146461. Full text

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Staff photo by Clay SchuldtAfter 50 years with the Boy Scouts, Tom Henderson is retiring as a scout leader. During the Troop 25 pancakebreakfast, scouts from across Minnesota and across generations came to thank Henderson for his serviceto the scouts. Henderson poses with a family of scouts that were impacted by his service. Back Row L toR: Janet Samuelson, Jared Budenski, Tom Henderson and Jordan Budenski. Middle Row: Annika Samuelson,Jake Budenski and Jenna Andrews. Front Row L to R: Ronik Samuelson, Jacey Budesnki and Carter Andrews.

NEW ULM There was more than pancakes to celebrate Sunday at the New Ulm area Boy Scout Troop 25 annual Pancake Breakfast Sunday at Holy Trinity Cathedral. Scouts gathered as well to celebrate Tom Hendersons service to Scouting. Henderson is retiring from the Scouts after 50 years of volunteer service and leadership.

The annual pancake breakfast is the troops main fundraiser for the year. The profits cover the cost of programming and other activities for the scouts. The money covers a variety of odds and ends, including camping supplies. The average turnout for the pancake breakfast is between 700 and 800 people.

This years pancake breakfast was special because it was also a chance to honor long-time Troop Committee Chairman Tom Henderson, who has helped multiple generations of Scouts.

Throughout the pancake breakfast, dozens of current and former members of Scouting came to see Henderson and thank him for his service.

Hendersons time with the scouts is actually longer than 50 years. He originally joined Cub Scouts as a kid in Fairmont. As an adult, while living near Chaska, Henderson again joined the scouts as an assistant scoutmaster. After a year in a half, he moved to Brown County to become the Director of Human Services for the county.

Henderson said when he became director at 27 he was not sure if he would have time for the Scouts, but a month into moving to Brown County, he was contacted by the local Troop and asked to serve as a Troop assistant. Henderson agreed to join as an assistant, but upon arriving at an early campout, learned he was scoutmaster.

Few adults serve in the Boy Scouts for 50 years. Henderson said the secret to his longevity in the Scouts was the great help he received from other adults.

Henderson Sid there was a time in the late 1970s when it seemed like he was the only adult assisting with the local Troop, and he resigned. Henderson was asked to return with the promise there would be more adult assistance.

Ever since I came back Ive been surrounded by helpers, he said. Several parents and other available adults stepped up to keep the Troop going strong. With extra assistance, he said being in the Scouts became much more fun.

Henderson said his best memories with the Scouts were the campouts. He recently did the math and estimates at least two full years of his life were spent camping outdoors during various scout events.

Henderson received numerous awards and accolades for his service to the Scouts. His most prized award was being listed at one of the 10 Outstanding USA Scoutmasters in 1998. This was a national award. He was brought out to the National Adult Boy Scout of American Convention in San Diego, CA for the presentation.

Of the many things he taught the Scouts over the years, Henderson hoped to impart leadership skills, a sense of service and camaraderie among the boys.

He was very proud to see several of his former scouts move on to leadership positions and continue to give back to the community.

Henderson was also happy when Scouts became more comfortable communicating. He saw many shy scouts join the Troop and leave as chatterboxes.

You do learn to work together as a team, Henderson said.

Scoutmaster Dan Kotten said the thing he will miss most about Henderson is the wealth of knowledge he brought to the Scouts.

If you had a question, he always had the answer, Kotten said.

He will also be remembered by all the scouts who learn from him.

Kotten counted himself among those many scouts.

It was estimated Henderson was a leader of at least a thousand scouts in his tenure. Roughly 125 scouts achieved the rank of Eagle Scout under his supervision.

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IKEDA, Osaka -- A 33-year-old male wombat at Satsukiyama Zoo in this west Japan city has recently been certified as the oldest ever captive member of his species, and Guinness World Records sent certificates for a Feb. 11 ceremony at the zoo.

Wain the wombat is over 100 years old in human terms, the zoo said.

The average lifetime of wombats in captivity is 20 to 25 years. Although Wain, who turned 33 in January 2022, has cataract in one eye and his legs and back have weakened, he has won fans for his cutely clumsy but vigorous demeanor as he moves around every day. He is so friendly to humans that he approaches visitors when he sees them holding a camera, apparently because he has lived at the zoo for so long and has gotten used to being photographed.

The secret to Wain's longevity is eating well. The zoo said that his favorite foods are green grass and sweet potatoes, and he also eats special order rusks and almonds to boost his calorie intake.

Zookeeper Iori Matsumoto, 24, cited other keys to Wain's longevity, saying, "He's been kept in a calm, stress-free environment surrounded by nature, and being right next to his good female friend Yuki might have helped, too."

Wain was rescued from the pouch of his mother, who was hit by a car on Australia's Tasmania island in 1989, and was transferred to the city of Ikeda the following year. Currently, four of the six wombats in Japan are at Satsukiyama Zoo. One of them, named Fukumaru, has become a kind of mascot for the city, appearing on posters as part of its local revitalization efforts.

"We hope Wain will stay healthy and live even longer," said zoo vice head and keeper Taiki Endo, 33.

(Japanese original by Makiko Nagao, Student Newspapers Editorial Department)

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As the 2022 Winter Olympics in Beijing entered their second week, reports emerged of a controversy that symbolized a predicament threatening two of the globes biggest sporting events.

It had nothing to do with doping, dubious scoring, collusion or corruption. Rather, the Olympic flame that emblem of peace and solidarity ignited quadrennially in Greece by the suns rays had apparently been snuffed out.

In an echo of 2008, when a relay torch was rumored to have been extinguished during pro-Tibet protests in the buildup to the Beijing Summer Games, Chinese officials insisted the flame had in fact remained alight, and a snowstorm had merely affected visibility.

In truth, the Olympic flame has been flickering unsteadily for some time, its longevity jeopardized by waning interest and rising dissatisfaction.

U.S. cross-country skier Caitlin Patterson trains in Zhangjiakou, China, ahead of the Beijing Olympics. The Chinese capital was awarded the Games in a two-horse race with Almaty in Kazakhstan. | DOUG MILLS / THE NEW YORK TIMES

Fewer and fewer nations are bidding for either the Summer or Winter Games. Eight potential hosts dropped out of the race for this years event, leaving Beijing to battle it out with Almaty in Kazakhstan, another nation known for its state-muzzled media and human rights abuses that have led to bloody revolts in recent weeks.

The Summer Games have fared little better. Five of the seven cities bidding for the 2024 iteration withdrew their bids, essentially gifting the Games to Paris, whose sole remaining rival, Los Angeles, was compensated with the staging rights for 2028.

That arrangement was hastily engineered by the International Olympic Committee due to the paucity of alternatives, as was the case with the subsequent event in 2032, which was offered to Brisbane, Australia, as it was the only viable option.

The root of the problem is that few today can afford to host the Games. The first time an Olympics turned any notable profit was 1984, when commercialization in the form of broadcasting rights, private investment and sponsorship deals enabled Los Angeles to deliver a surplus of $215 million.

The National Ski Jumping Center in Zhangjiakou, China | HANNAH MCKAY / REUTERS

After civil unrest forced Tehrans dropout, Los Angeles was the only option then, too, an outcome of Montreal 1976 suffering losses of $1.5 billion debt that took almost three decades to pay off.

And while LAs success in the 1980s led to an increase in wannabe hosts, most wound up like the Canadian city, drowning in red ink. Athens in 2004 overspent to such a degree that it sent Greece into economic meltdown, while a dozen years later Rio de Janeiros deficit topped $2 billion the largest to date.

Hampered by the COVID-19 pandemic, not to mention a disapproving public, Tokyo 2020 looks set to trump that. When final data is released in April, revenues are expected to be around half the officially stated $13.6 billion costs.

There was meaning to the Olympics until about 20 or 30 years ago, but the model has aged badly, says Ryu Honma, author of 2021s The Deadly Sins of the Tokyo Olympics, in which he argues vested interests and other little-reported issues brought actual costs for Tokyo 2020 to around 3.5 trillion ($30.3 billion). Theres no value in it now, especially for democratic nations.

The snowboarding events at the 2022 Beijing Olympics attracted an international broadcast audience, but the tangible benefits to the host country have been limited. | DYLAN MARTINEZ / REUTERS

An increasingly skeptical public is demanding change, he says, adding that negative polls can very quickly dampen any enthusiasm a city might have for hosting the event.

Indeed, according to a study from the Johannes Gutenberg University Mainz in Germany, only one of the 13 bids that dropped out of the running for Games to be held between 2022 and 2028 enjoyed support in referendums.

The essence of that outdated model comes in the form of appeals to the public to make sacrifices on the pretext of advancement, namely economic growth, says Kosuke Tomita, a researcher at Nippon Sports Science University.

If the argument is convincing, residents have traditionally turned a blind eye to any collateral damage the stripping of protected highlands for the 1972 Winter Games in Sapporo, or the forced relocation of 200 Tokyo households to make way for the New National Stadium in 2020 being two domestic examples, he adds.

Kosuke Tomita, a researcher at Nippon Sports Science University, says the IOCs outdated model for hosting the Olympics appeals to the public to make sacrifices on the pretext of advancement, namely economic growth. | ROB GILHOOLY

But the public wont accept this pretext anymore, says Tomita, who has penned several studies and books about the Olympics. Voices have increasingly been rising against it.

So loud have those voices become, that it is now increasingly difficult to see what the future holds for the Games, if indeed they have one.

The International Olympic Committee desperately wants to reverse the trend among democratic nations, which are seen as trustworthy custodians not least of all during difficult times such as pandemics, Tomita says.

Yet, motivated perhaps by those countries flitting interest in staging the events, the IOC has increasingly turned its attention to nondemocratic states.

Some believe a systematic rotation of the Games around previous hosts with suitable existing infrastructure could help reduce the costs borne by a single nation in future. | DENIS BALIBOUSE / REUTERS

According to the Mainz University study, the IOC has sought to actively strengthen its ties with autocratic regimes because, in addition to the absence of any public dissent, or cost concerns, it provides Games organizers with an insurance policy for times when there is no potential host from a democratic nation.

Despite the opposition and detrimental effects on its brand image keeping good working relations with authoritarian governments helps the IOC to secure the future of its main revenue driver, the Olympic Games, thus providing for its own future, the study states.

Tomita agrees, saying a shift of focus provides the IOC with numerous options many, but not all of them, in nondemocratic countries. This is exemplified by other sports such as soccer, whose flagship competition, the FIFA World Cup, will be held in Qatar later this year.

The subject of the Olympics having issues or having reached some kind of limit is a viewpoint expressed largely by developed nations that have been central to carrying the modern Olympics since their inception, Tomita says. But, if you look a little more globally, the Arab states, Africa and Southeast Asia are home to nations that still have room for growth, and mega-events such as the Olympics can be a way to help elevate them in the world.

Chinas government has so far disclosed little about the costs associated with hosting the Games, but analysts expect it to be at least $3 billion. | MARKO DJURICA / REUTERS

A downside of such an approach, Tomita argues, is that it would likely result in the perpetuation of the current system, delaying the implementation of any meaningful measures to tackle lingering issues, such as economic costs, social displacement and green washing.

The situation has already forced the IOC to react, rolling out recommendations in 2018 that it says could save host nations hundreds of millions of dollars.

It is a fundamental rethinking of the organization of future Games, IOC chief Thomas Bach stated on the organizations website. This will lead to a new norm from the candidature for and the delivery of the Games through to their legacy.

At the heart of the new recommendations is the reuse of existing facilities, plus the introduction of an Olympic TV station, an idea perhaps prompted by the $2.9 billion that was reportedly pocketed by U.S. broadcaster NBCUniversal for its coverage of the 2016 Summer Games in Brazil.

The Tokyo Metropolitan Gymnasium during the womens singles table tennis competition at the postponed 2020 Tokyo Olympics in July 2021. Fans were barred from the venues due to concerns over the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. | ALEXANDRA GARCIA / THE NEW YORK TIMES

The IOC says it has already begun part of this process in China, with the repurposing of some facilities used in 2008, but author Honma questions the sincerity of such proposals.

Tokyo 2020 officials, he notes, reversed similar plans to reuse existing facilities in favor of building seven new ones. The move more than doubled the original budget, and left behind a little-wanted legacy that could continue to cost taxpayers for years to come, he says.

Before the 1964 Olympics, they built a shinkansen line, metropolitan expressways and made other improvements that benefited everyone, even today, and contributed significantly to Japans growth, Honma says. Tokyo 2020 left behind no such thing. Despite saying otherwise, they created seven new venues, all but one of which is predicted to be in deficit to the tune of billions of yen per year.

A trampolinist competes in front of an empty stadium at the 2020 Tokyo Olympics. | DOUG MILLS / THE NEW YORK TIMES

The oversized and difficult to repurpose New National Stadium alone will cost taxpayers 2 billion per annum, he says, adding such inconvenient truths have been little reported by Japans big five media outlets, all of which were among the 67 sponsors of the 2020 Games.

Critics of the Olympics have presented new ideas of their own, such as creating a permanent home for the event in Greece, which would serve both as a nod to its origins and a solution to the costly bidding wars that seem at odds with the Games underlying principle of global congregation.

Some believe a systematic rotation of the Games around previous hosts with suitable existing infrastructure could also provide an answer.

Others have even suggested spreading the economic burden of hosting the Olympics by holding the events in multiple locations every four years.

Seiko Hashimoto, president of the Tokyo 2020 organizing committee, does not believe that continuing to hold the Olympics the same way and on the same scale is sustainable in the future. | ROB GILHOOLY

Seiko Hashimoto, president of the Tokyo 2020 organizing committee, agrees that change is needed, but that some essential ingredients will need to remain to ensure survival.

I dont think that continuing to do things the same way and on the same scale is a guarantee for the future, says Hashimoto, a former cyclist and skater who took part in seven Summer and Winter Olympics between 1984 and 1996.

But I think it also depends on how the host city or country views the Olympics and Paralympics, she says. If you want to spend more and more money on them, you can do so exhaustively, but a different direction would be to simply put all of your efforts into the sports themselves.

This, she said, would bring the events closer to their pre-1984, pre-commercialization roots.

I think we are already starting to see a move back in that direction, she says.

The Chinese flag is raised during the opening ceremony of the 2022 Beijing Games. The Olympic flame has been flickering unsteadily for some time, its longevity jeopardized by waning interest and rising dissatisfaction. | BRIAN SNYDER / REUTERS

Hashimoto recently returned from a field trip to Beijing, where she was struck by how the buoyant atmosphere contrasted with Tokyo 2020. Both were hit by the coronavirus pandemic, though the latter will be better remembered by disgruntled protesters right up to the closing ceremony, she says.

There was none of that in Beijing no protests, no criticism about costs, she says.

This probably says more about the perils of dissent in China, where activists were reportedly rounded up by authorities in the buildup to the Games, undesirable social media accounts closed and athletes warned against commenting on the nations dreadful human rights record.

Yet, it might also offer an insight into what the future has in store for the Games an all-smiles event held by authoritarian nations far away from the host city, using snow that isnt real on protected mountains where millions of trees have been cleared and transplanted elsewhere. Then again, it might all just go virtual, with esports coming to the rescue.

No matter what the situation is, no matter what form (the Olympics) takes, I think that people essentially want to see the potential of humanity through sports, Hashimoto says. As long as this aspect continues to appeal, I think the Olympics will live on.

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Almost four years ago, Phil Mickelson was a linchpin in golfs bizarre dip into the waters of pay-per-view television.

The event, called The Match, was a head-to-head match play event against one-time rival Tiger Woods for a mega purse of $9 million ($A12.5m).

It was hardly The Rumble in the Jungle.

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The showdown was awkward and slow with long walks up fairways jarring proof that one vs one golf is not exactly a triumph for broadcast television.

There was a tackiness, too, such as Mickelson baiting Woods into a $A280,000 side bet that he would birdie the first hole, and a $A420,000 wager on closest-to-the-pin at the 13th.

The only winner in the end was Mickelson, who defeated Woods in darkness after four playoff holes, and lost only one of five side bets.

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Egotistical Mickelson facing backlash over $3bn golf revolt

Its an event worth revisiting this week after Mickelson completed a full-scale heel turn that would make even the most villainous of wrestling stars blush.

On Thursday, the proposed $2.9bn Saudi-backed Super Golf League was all but certain to take off, posing a existential threat to the established PGA and European Tours.

But in the space of one four-day tournament on Americas west coast, the Saudi plan has unravelled spectacularly.

The splinter league is still set to be launched, but it could be dead on arrival with the biggest names in golf recommitting to the PGA Tour.

To be seen alongside Mickelson now is to commit some sort of brand reputation suicide.

The turning point was comments made by Mickelson that have been slammed as morally bankrupt, and breathtakingly greedy.

In remarks to biographer Alan Shipnuck, that were made public via the Fire Pit Collective website on Thursday, Mickelson acknowledged Saudi Arabias appalling human rights record, and cited the 2018 murder of Washington Post journalist Jamal Khashoggi.

He nonetheless expressed his desire to potentially join the breakaway tour the Saudis are bankrolling, merely to gain leverage against the PGA Tour.

Theyre scary motherf-----s to get involved with, Mickelson is quoted as saying.

We know they killed Khashoggi and have a horrible record on human rights. They execute people over there for being gay.

Knowing all of this, why would I even consider it? Because this is a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to reshape how the PGA Tour operates.

The comments threaten to be a permanent stain on the legacy of the six-time major-winner.

Mickelsons golfing success long went hand-in-hand with his legendary appetite for gambling on-course.

The Match was the moment the two were married and, in a way, strangely celebrated.

But its clear at this stage in his career that Mickelson puts as much value on financial gain as he does winning and gamesmanship.

When Mickelson went on to clinch the 2021 PGA Championship from out of no where, there was a feeling that his legacy would be cemented in his longevity and major wins.

But his brazen willingness to associate with the Saudi regime in an attempt to strongarm the PGA Tour into making changes that would generate him greater wealth has, understandably, gone down like a lead balloon.

World No.8 Justin Thomas labelled Mickelsons comments as egotistical, while Rory McIlroy went a step further by calling them naive, selfish, egotistical, ignorant.

Meanwhile, Golf Channel analyst Eamon Lynch said: I cannot think of a more morally bankrupt statement that any public figure could make.

Lynch later doubled down in a scathing column for USA Today, in which he said that Mickelson had brought himself and the Super Golf League to the brink of ruin.

An old adage holds that if you wait by the riverbank long enough, the bodies of your enemies will eventually float by, Lynch wrote.

Thats as good a metaphor as any for how some golf industry executives must have felt in the wake of recent comments by Phil Mickelson that incinerated his reputation, alienated most every constituency in the game, exposed him to disciplinary action, and otherwise cast him in a light so unflatteringly amoral that even Greg Norman might hesitate to be seen in his company.

He added: If hes assembling an army to go over the top with him (to the SGL), it is starting to resemble more a mangy assortment of moth-eaten veterans than an elite fighting force.

The charlatan Tour members involved in this scheme Mickelson and Norman chief among them have never been more isolated from their peers, never more exposed in their heartless opportunism, and never more lacking in public support.

Columnist for The Washington Post Jennifer Rubin was also scathing in her assessment, saying that Mickelson showed a breathtaking greed and unabashed sustain for others suffering.

Mickelsons Faustian bargain with the Saudis brought on a furious reaction because his reasoning was patently amoral and because the stakes for him (a new golf tournament for already rich and successful golfers) are pathetically small, Rubin wrote, while arguing he is not alone while citing political examples.

Meanwhile, Sky Sports' golf expert Rich Beem wrote in his own column that Mickelsons stance was confusing and he stood to make enemies of his colleagues.

Beem said it was confusing that Mickelson would not attempt to gain support from fellow players to rally against the PGA Tours stronghold of media rights and instead negotiate with a rival league .

Why go about this in a completely roundabout way and make it so controversial? Beem wrote. It doesnt make sense to me.

When they hear all this from Phil I think they are thinking why is he saying all this?

And without educating them, Phil is separating himself from the PGA Tour.

He may have just done so irreparably.

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The heartless move that brought morally bankrupt golf legend to the brink of ruin - Fox Sports