Monthly Archives: September 2021

Judith Collins bizarre attack on Siouxsie Wiles is something youd expect from a troll on the internet, rather than a leader in waiting, argues Toby Manhire.

Its the hardest job in politics, or so the platitude goes. Leader of the opposition. Whod want that? Jacinda Ardern got it right, maybe: take the gig 10 minutes before closing time.

But however thankless, ill-resourced and exhausting it might be to lead Her Majestys Loyal Opposition, its certainly not trivial. In a democracy, especially one in the midst of a crisis that has delivered extreme limitations on freedoms, however broad the support for those limitations might be, we need and deserve the scrutiny of opposition.

For that reason, I was personally in support of Judith Collins decision to travel to Wellington to, you know, lead the opposition to the government amid another destabilising Covid outbreak. She should be there, questioning the government response. Speaking directly to the press gallery, which in turn disseminates that critique to the public. Articulating an alternative perspective.

Especially given the return of the 1pm show, during which the prime minister or her deputies have such lengthy and high-rating screen-time, its not complicated: there is no more essential service than that delivered by the leader of the opposition.

Among her or his other tasks, the leader of the opposition presents to voters an alternative. Here, in this time when so many of us face pressure on our medical, emotional, social and financial health, is another vision. What do you think?

Well, here was the alternative presented today. According to reporting by Newshub, Judith Collins appeared on Zoom before a National-aligned Pacific New Zealand group. She was asked about a story by Cameron Slater, best known for running the now-defunct attack blog Whale Oil, which included a video of Siouxsie Wiles, the microbiologist, science communicator and a key contributor to The Spinoff. The video showed Wiles sitting on an Auckland beach with another person, one Slaters own enquiries revealed was in her bubble. The pair are without masks but a long way from any others. Wiles bubble-friend goes for a brief swim. Wiles does not.

Collins assessment? I think shes a big, fat hypocrite, actually. Just in case you thought that might be a loose sprinkler of words, rather than a deliberate, nasty, and precisely chosen phrase, she said it again:

I watched that video, and I thought: big, fat hypocrite.

Ladies and gentlemen, this is your leader of the opposition.

Briefly, about that video: Slater posted it on his Whale Oil 2.0 website hoping to embarrass Wiles. Enquiries placed to The Spinoff alleged that the person alongside her was a Spinoff staff member. You can hear him licking his lips.

In fact Wiles was with a friend and colleague who lives alone, and has joined her bubble. That friend (who has contributed a handful of pieces to The Spinoff over the years but is neither a journalist nor an employee) made a mistake in going for a short swim in level four. As Wiles has acknowledged, her friend should not have done that. The pair cycled to the beach, which is clearly within the rules.

Wiles should not be beyond criticism. Shes said she regrets not stopping her friend from swimming. Argue around the edges of how far people can cycle from home by all means. But as far as Collins response is concerned, the question is whether thats what you want to hear from someone auditioning for the role of prime minister.

Let me also say this: Im biased. Ive worked with Siouxsie for many years now as an editor. I admire her immensely her work as a microbiologist; her rare ability to express complex ideas in a way the less scientifically minded of us can grasp; her astounding work ethic, and accompanying lack of interest in personal gain; and her ability to carry on in the face of wave after wave of harassment and bullying.

Eighteen months and one day ago, Siouxsies first collaboration with my friend and colleague Toby Morris was published on The Spinoff. Its been a privilege to watch the pair of them work. Both have worked 100 hour weeks, much more than once, because theyre weird, and because they give a shit.

Theyve created work that has been viewed by hundreds of millions of people around the world. Because Siouxsie insisted from the start that the work should be released under a creative commons licence, its been translated into dozens of languages. Its been repackaged and shared by public health authorities in the UK, Australia, Argentina, the Czech Republic, and a heap of other places. One of my favourites: a version of the break the chain animation, popped up in a campaign on Berlin bus-stops. The WHO used the pair for much of last year as key parts of its communication strategy.

What a body of work. Siouxsie Wiles legacy is immense. Judith Collins legacy? You tell me. Or, a better thought experiment: try to imagine her as the prime minister, leading the country in the face of a crisis.

I thought Judith Collins, under plenty of pressure, did a good job in her closing speech at the National Party conference the other day. I watched it from the mezzanine, and called it confident and assured. She was really good last Sunday on Q+A. She looked like someone who might even lead a party that would lead the country. She looked like a worthy successor to John Key and Bill English.

Sadly that was an aberration. The norm is the baffling shouting down the webcam at Indira Stewart on the countrys most viewed breakfast television programme. The norm is the tin-eared hollering into a near empty House of Representatives. Shes now drawing attention to the work of a discredited, malevolent, dirt-throwing attack blogger, which had been roundly ignored by credible media until that point. Worse maybe than all of that, as far as the expediencies of politics are concerned, she has proven herself completely unpredictable.

The National Party caucus is not short of talent. While Collins was hurling poison across the benches on the day the house resumed last week, Chris Bishop (recently demoted by Collins) opened his speech by celebrating the increased rates of vaccination and praising essential workers. Dr Shane Reti has been a conscience and critic on issues including the failure to fully include GPs in the Covid response. Erica Stanford has led the charge on the important, unsexy work of families split apart by the Covid immigration rules.

Simon Bridges was judged to have cocked up the National response in the first outbreak, but watch his performance on the epidemic response committee in 2020: there was a leader. Louise Upston has been asking timely and important questions about the wage subsidy. Matt Doocey has done a heap of mahi on mental health, and is asking hard, important questions on a sector where the government, in my view, has let us down really badly. Gerry Brownlee started a podcast, and its pretty good!

Maybe Collins is the hardest job in politics, and maybe thats because we find out who you are.

Janet Wilson, an experienced, smart and measured former journalist and communications expert, worked loyally and stoically alongside Collins through the agony of the last election campaign. So appalled has she been by the National leaders performance she recently described her as Muldoonist, as paranoid, leading a party floundering, saddled with endless entitleditis and on a path to irrelevance.

Senior members of John Keys slick ninth floor team talk privately, but with striking candour, and more than a little despair, about the state of the leadership today. And who can blame them? Key and Bill English and others must weep at the sight of a years-long project to cement National as the sensible voice of a modern middle New Zealand collapsing a little further with each spring-loaded outburst from Collins.

You can understand why National MPs might shrink from the idea of another destabilising leadership change. You can understand why those who see themselves as potential leaders might have been calculating that it would be best to wait until after the next election.

But when the door is unhinged so far from its frame that its flown to another dimension, when your reputation as a party is so rapidly corroding, when your leader appears glued to the dirty politics poison of years past, when your leader is indistinguishable from a pseudonymous Twitter account ending in six random digits, when the country remains in a serious crisis that demands serious people, were fast arriving at a point where National demanding anything but change at the top is not just foolish, its irresponsible.

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Read more from the original source:

New Zealand urgently needs a serious opposition leader - The Spinoff

3:38am, 10 September 2021

Danny Care has approved of the new World 12s competition scheduled to launch next year in the belief it could be the spark needed to improve rugby as a spectacle. Former England scrum-half Care was an influential figure as Harlequins lit up the Gallagher Premiership last season with a thrilling attacking style that swept them all the way to the title.

Just weeks after Quins had stormed Twickenham in swashbuckling fashion, the British and Irish Lions fought out a dreary three-Test series against South Africa that was a hard watch even for purists. It is hoped that the World 12s, a competition that has similarities to crickets Indian Premier League, will attract new fans by having fewer players on the pitch twelve on each side using adapted laws designed to speed up play in games that last only 30 minutes.

Taking place in August and September, the hope is that top players from across the world enticed by large salaries will be auctioned to appear for eight privately funded franchises. It must first overcome several major stumbling blocks but while the response of governing bodies has so far been lukewarm, Care believes it could be the shake-up the sport needs.

Matt Dawson and Mike Brown on their favourite rugby memories

I can see issues with it, like player release, clubs and unions not wanting players to go and play it, but I do see the sport needing change, Care said when representing Harlequins at the virtual 2021/22 Premiership launch. If you watch the majority of international Test matches at the moment, if New Zealand and France arent playing then it doesnt really excite me, Ill be honest with you.

If there are any ways of trying to change that and inspire kids to pick up a rugby ball then Im all for it. I tried to get my son to watch the Lions tour and he was like what is this? Id like to think our club tries to play in a way that inspires kids to play. I know international rugby is very different to club rugby and they say you cant play like that in international rugby. Why not? Why cant you? You can if your coaches let you play like that. Maybe the 12s thing is an opportunity for coaches to look at that and think maybe we could play more of an expansive game. Its certainly something Id want to watch and maybe get involved in if I make the auction!

Exeter boss Rob Baxter fears the competition will put players and clubs in a difficult position and the problems surrounding player release are the biggest hurdle it faces. Care, however, insists players would welcome the opportunity to earn more money. If we have all the best English players playing in England for the majority of the year, the English team is going to be better, added Care, the seasoned 34-year-old Harlequins half-back.

Let them do that, but also allow them to go and earn a bit of money. Lets be honest, not many players earn enough to not have to go and work the day after they retire. Were very lucky to do what we do but its not cricket, certainly not football, so if we can bring more money into the sport and attract more who want to play it then its only a good thing for the game.

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Original post:

'If New Zealand and France aren't playing it doesn't excite me' - RugbyPass

Herald journalists have been following Covid-19 and its impact on the world since it emerged in Wuhan in 2019. Experts in their fields, Derek Cheng, Jamie Morton and Liam Dann have been keeping New Zealand informed about the pandemic from a political, scientific and economic point of view. Now, as we battle an outbreak of the Delta variant in our community they offer their expert opinion on what this means for the future of NZ.

How long will we be in lockdown?

Auckland won't move out of level 4 until the Government can be confident there are no infectious people in the community spreading Delta from bubble to bubble.They could be essential workers, supermarket-goers or simply rule-breakers. They could beundetected cases linked to mystery ones. In a best-case scenario, the number of infectious cases in the community could fall to zero this coming week, leading to level 3, and then level 2 after another week of no sign of cases who aren't already isolating. The worst-case scenario is that this number not only rises after movement in the community, but an essential worker also takes the virus beyond Auckland's boundary. If the outbreak flares up,Auckland would need to stay in lockdown until vaccination coverage starts to flatten the curve - which might not be until the end of the year.

Will life go back to normal when we come out?

Things will be Delta-tweaked, as we've already seen with tighter restrictions on gatherings and more mask-wearing at level 2. This accounts for the possibility of airborne transmission from fleeting encounters. Level 1 may be able to stay as it is now - with maximum freedom, but now with mandatory record-keeping - but the trade-off would be tighter border restrictions to minimise the number of Delta cases coming into the country.Lockdowns may still be used, but as more of us get vaccinated, they won't be needed as much as they are now.

Can we still eliminate Covid - or are we going to have to learn to live with it?

It's hard to say what next year will be like, but pursuing elimination for now at least gives us a choice. It's also the best thing to do while we remain so unvaccinated.Once vaccination coverage is sufficient for the borders to start reopening, however, the virus will come into our communities and - as we do now - we will rely on rapid testing, tracing and case isolation, and even localised lockdowns to minimise its spread. We may still be able to quickly stamp out any incursion into the community. We may also not need to if vaccines and Covid treatment have evolved to a point where we can live with it without hospitals being overrun or people dying needlessly.

Is vaccination the answer?

It's not the only answer but it's certainly the loudest. It minimises the chances of catching the virus, and if you do, it minimises the chances of death or severe illness. Countries we like to compare ourselves to have had vaccination rates plateau at around 53 (US) to 68 per cent (Canada). Clearly, no one is going to get 100 per cent coverage, and even if they did, vaccines aren't 100 per cent effective so people would still get sick. Some public health measures and border restrictions are still needed.

When will we reopen our borders?

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The current outbreak doesn't necessarily push back the timeline of early next year. The Government's plan toreopen waspredicated on having everyone vaccinated who wants tobe, with enough coverage among certain groups. This will hopefully be achieved by the end of the year, regardless of whether we beat the current outbreak. But reopening was also predicated on starting from a position where the virus is eliminated, which would give us the best chance of continuing that strategy, should we choose to. If we're not thereas the clock ticks 2022, we may want to strive to return there - if possible. This would give us options on how to live in a Covid world that will be with us for some time, and which could still throw a more deadly variant our way. And that might mean a little longer in Fortress NZ.

How long will Auckland be in lockdown?

That partly depends on Aucklanders continuing to play their part under Level 4, and not giving the virus a chance to spread. Mathematically, there's the all-important "R" value, which is simply how many people are being infected by each positive case of Covid-19. Before lockdown, Delta's R, potent as it is, was sitting above six. When the number is high, the virus spreads faster. With the virus now having been starved for weeks, we can safely assume it's well below one. Perhaps even as low as 0.4, as current modelling shows. The Auckland-centred outbreak might now be eliminated within weeks, provided we keep the pressure on it. When will Auckland join the rest of the country at "Delta Level 2"? That depends on officials' appetite for risk - and with Delta, that tolerance level will be extremely low. It's also worth noting that more than 20 community cases during this outbreak haven't been epidemiologically linked - and that will make officials nervous. It only takes one rogue case to re-ignite an outbreak.

Will life go back to normal when we come out?

As we've already seen around the rest of New Zealand, life even at level 2 is much different than it used to be. It now means masking up in most public places - including supermarkets and shopping malls - and the measure is also recommended, but not required, in schools. Scanning and record-keeping are now required in a lot of settings. A bar or restaurant can't have more than 50 people seated at a time. Experts have gone as far as arguing that these busy venues shouldn't have even been allowed to open under the new level 2. When Auckland's lockdown finally lifts, it's likely that this is what people can expect. And at level 1, we might anticipate other tweaks that mean "normal" life in New Zealand won't be the same.

Can we still eliminate Covid - or are we going to have to learn to live with it?

In New Zealand, and for the time being, yes we can, as the response to this outbreak is showing. But that'll be increasingly tough in the age of Delta. A few quick reasons to stick with the strategy: it's given New Zealand a cumulative Covid-19 death rate nearly 250 times lower than the OECD average, and helped protect our economy. Going by GDP over the first five quarters of the pandemic, New Zealand's was the sixth-best performing in the 38-nation club. On top of that, it's kept our health system from being overloaded and spared Kiwis the long-term problems that follow infection. Epidemiologists say there's no reason our strategy can't hold against even Delta, so long as we go as hard as we can while we're still vaccinating. South Australia, Queensland, Taiwan, Hong Kong, China and Singapore have already proven it's possible. And going forward, as coverage rates rise, the strategy can be changed. It's a trump card that we shouldn't throw away - and we'd be foolish to go the way of other nations like the UK if we don't have to. In the longer term, and globally, however, worldwide eradication is probably next to impossible. That'll likely mean that the virus could become endemic here when we reopen - albeit with some protection from high vaccination rates, hopefully.

Is vaccination the answer?

It's part of the answer. Much has been said of Australia's 70 to 80 per cent vaccination threshold - a milestone at which politicians across the ditch have promised restrictions can begin to be lifted. It's a federal game-plan that states like New South Wales and Victoria are now having to embrace after Delta outbreaks have taken elimination off the table. But that won't mean there won't be other controls in place across Australia, or that it'll be like living in 2019. Here in New Zealand, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has repeatedly pushed the line that the Government will review the options once it has completed its vaccination drive. But again, it'll be unlikely this will spell complete freedom. Modelling studies tell us that achieving population immunity against Delta is unlikely, given this would require uptake among all Kiwis to be close to 100 per cent. Currently, the shot is only approved for people older than 12 - and willingness to get the vaccine among the population has been sitting at only 80 per cent.

When will we reopen our borders?

At this point, that's tough to say. As the Delta outbreak hit, the Government had already been in the process of opening a self-isolation trial for vaccinated travellers to prepare for a "phased resumption" of quarantine-free travel. It's worth noting that Sir David Skegg's group found that allowing more quarantine-free travel would raise the risk of Covid-19 entering the country again - and even with high vaccination levels, there'd still be some clusters of infection and occasional large outbreaks. By sticking with elimination, we might hope these could be stamped out without more lockdowns, and by public health and social measures such as mass testing, rapid tracing and isolation of contacts, as well as physical distancing and mask-wearing where appropriate. Simply throwing open our borders and letting the virus rip doesn't seem a good option, even in the long term. One modelling paper found that even if we vaccinated nine in 10 Kiwis, doing this led to more than 11,000 hospitalisations - and more than 1000 deaths - in only two years. So the most important question might not be when we reopen, but how.

How long will we be in lockdown?

Economics doesn't claim any special insight into this. It's ultimately a political call, underpinned by the science. What economists do is model outcomes for various scenarios. For most, the base case is still the optimistic one we're all hoping for - four weeks of level 4 for Auckland, followed by a couple at level 3. While level 2remains problematic for some specific sectors, it matters less at a macro-economic level. Sydney-based Capital Economics has modelled a scenario where we fail to eliminate and follow the Aussie path of lower-level lockdowns for longer (while we vaccinate). The good news is they still forecast the economy to hold up well.

Will life go back to normal when we come out?

Normal is a pretty fluid concept these days. Will we get back to the gym, meet friends for a beer and get back on the sidelines for kids' sport?Sure, New Zealand has already proved it can do that - through the past 18 months and through other epic events like the world wars. But the world isn't ever going back to the way it was in 2019.History doesn't work that way. When Covid finally fades from the front pages, the world will have emerged from an accelerated period of technological, social and political change.It will be a different place. But like everything, it will, eventually, feel normal.

Can we still eliminate Covid - or are we going to have to learn to live with it?

We are already learning to live with it. Thankfully we are learning to live with it at the borders or the fringes of the community. We're learning to live with it, without mass hospitalisations and deaths. Sooner or later, we'll have to tolerate it in the community. But for now, from a social and economic point of view, elimination provides a better outcome. Our borders have never closed to commerce and capital. That's allowed the economy to perform well even with the inflow of people restricted. No one wants to live this way indefinitely. But doing so for a bit longer will allow us to make choices about our risk appetite, as a nation.

Is vaccination the answer?

Yes, absolutely. But it isn't a silver bullet, or at least this version isn't. History tells us that humans will win this race. But it has really just begun - scientifically and logistically. We need the whole world vaccinated. And we need more effective vaccines. I'm optimistic about the latter, at least. Although only eight vaccines are approved for full use, more than 100 are in development, according to the New York Times. In New Zealand, getting vaccination rates above 80 per cent would be a game-changer. It would also be a world-beating effort. But that's okay, Kiwis love that kind of challenge.

When will we reopen our borders?

If we can hit those world-beating vaccination rates, I'm hopeful we'll still be able to follow the plan outlined by the PM pre-lockdown,without too much delay.This would mean a careful, targeted reopening through 2022. But we should be realistic about the timeframe for unrestricted travel. Air New Zealand's cautious strategy offers a good touchstone.It has deferred buying two Boeing 787s for up to four years and has not committed to capital expenditure beyond 2028. The airline is configuring for a lengthy period of partial reopening, along the lines of what we saw with the transtasman and Cook Island bubbles.

Originally posted here:

Where to from here? Herald Covid-19 experts on the future for NZ - New Zealand Herald