Monthly Archives: September 2021

One of the many quotes attributed to Napoleon Bonaparte that he probably never said, was that he preferred his generals lucky, rather than able. When its a matter of life and death, give me lucky generals, hes reputed to have pleaded.

Its a view that New Zealand prime minister Jacinda Ardern echoed this week when she announced that Auckland home to about a third of all New Zealanders was moving out of the strict level 4 lockdown to level 3. Replace generals with policy and you get a pretty accurate sense of cabinets big call this week. In a country that has essentially tattooed go hard, go early on to one collective arm and stay home, stay safe on to the other, the decision to let about 300,000 people go back to their places of work when Aucklands still getting 15-30 cases a day in the community is a turning point in the governments approach to this pandemic. Both in public health terms and politically. A year ago, public opinion wouldnt have worn such faith in lucky generals. But that was a year ago.

Some have declared cabinets decision the end of New Zealands elimination strategy. Some ignoring the evidence of just 27 dead and our distinctly not overwhelmed hospital wards claim its proof elimination and lockdowns havent worked.

Others, including Ardern and her cabinet colleagues, insist level 3 is still all about elimination. But the language has undeniably changed. The strictly evidence-led approach of the past 18 months is muted and this week the language of luck has stuck out like one of Napoleons bicorne hats.

In truth New Zealands ridden its luck a lot this pandemic. The failure to properly test border staff, people escaping MIQs but never spreading the disease, the slow initial vaccine rollout that side-lined GPs, dithering on salvia testing and purpose-built quarantine centres yeah, luck has always been part of the story, alongside getting the big calls right. But this is different.

This week just about every epidemiologist has used the words calculated risk and epidemiologist Michael Baker said flat out, its a gamble. Covid-19 response minister Chris Hipkins was reduced to insisting that, Weve still got a very good shot at getting down to zero [community cases].

Betting our biggest city on a good shot is quite the shift. For all that the government says that elimination remains the goal, basic maths suggests this weeks decision has lengthened the odds of achieving that.

Political leaders are always making deals between today and tomorrow. Protect superannuation now, risk less for our children. Cut taxes in the hope of fiscal stimulus now but lower the nations savings. And on it goes. For 18 months Labour has banked public health, saving lives like taxes. Now though, the government is for the first time toying with the public health equivalent of loosening the purse-strings. Choosing the now over whats to come. Risking their legacy as Covid beaters for the sake of Aucklands short-term mental and economic health. Backing the lucky generals over the able.

Its a big move for Ardern. Not least because amid the polarising adoration and fury she inspires, the prime minister is by instinct and training a conservative. Stubbornly cautious. So why this calculated risk? Why bet on luck?

In part, she must feel confident from her data that the number of community cases wont blow out. A surge in the next two weeks and talk of a return to level 4 would be devastating for all. And in one sense she may well feel shes not so much increasing the risk as replacing lockdowns with vaccinations as her key Covid-busting tool; moving her public health chips from black to red.

Yet, even if the government data is better than the public knows, its a greater political risk than shes taken previously in this pandemic. So, why?

For a start, there was a growing political cost in staying at level 4. Having initially spoken of a short and sharp lockdown and built expectations in the past fortnight of a move down levels, she had painted herself into something of a corner. And as much of the rest of the world puts lockdowns behind them, our continued reliance on them could undermine our reputation as global winners in the Covid stakes. And hers.

Whats more, you dont need a focus group or even a trip to the pub to know that the mood in this country is changing. The governments short-lived plan to open up after Christmas has been thrown into all kinds of doubt by Delta. People are grasping in the dark for whats next.

Frustration in Auckland has been rising and cabinet would have known it was at risk of losing the crowd; theres no point imposing level 4 when you know people are going to change their behaviour regardless. Part of good public health management is knowing how much people can take, and Auckland was cracking.

Dont forget, elections are still won and lost in Auckland. Labour recovered in the provinces at the last election and over-performed in rural areas. But Ardern knows she cant hold those numbers and Auckland will be key to another term.

Labour will be wary of the fact voters dont always reward heroic wartime leaders, once that crisis has faded. They look for new skills for new times. Just ask Winston Churchill. And while Ardern may have the good fortune of facing the worst opposition since, well, her own partys woeful efforts through most of the 2010s, she knows such luck and opposition leader Judith Collins wont last for ever.

So while New Zealanders wont truly know whether or not weve abandoned our elimination strategy for another week or two and much will depend on Aucklanders choices during that time (not to mention the weather this weekend), theres no doubt the public mood is changing.

So Ardern looks to have decided that if shes going to gamble, it may as well be on the behaviour of New Zealanders as the behaviour of the Delta variant.

See original here:

Once Covid world-beaters, the mood in New Zealand is changing and Jacinda Ardern knows it - The Guardian

Pool/Getty Images

Questions have been raised over Jacinda Ardern's Covid-19 response, and what's next for the country.

OPINION: In August 2017, I had a piece published on Stuff Nation about how the 'Jacinda effect' wasthe best thing to happen to New Zealandat the time.

Back then, and even now today, I standby what I wrote at that time.

During that era, I was so supportive of Jacinda Ardern.I joined up to the Labour Party and made a very smalldonation towards their 2017 election campaign.

We all know what happened next.

As a supporterfor the past four years, Ive received emails fromArdernasking me to chip into the Labour campaign at various times, and to follow up on key announcements the Labour Party makes.

READ MORE:* Covid-19: Level 1 still a way off for the rest of New Zealand, experts say* Covid-19: New Auckland cases will stop rest of country moving to alert level 1* Covid-19: Education Minister Chris Hipkins says school holidays won't be moved in Auckland

Afterthedecision that, for at least another week, Auckland wasto remain at level 4 and the rest of the country at level 2, an email from Arderncame through at 10.37pm the same day.

The subject line was: Three Things.

Basically, in the email, the cabinet decision was justified in three ways, based on what this is all about;saving lives.

But this time, and it is hard for me to admit, I just wasnt buying what was being said.

Out of frustration and concern, I replied to Ardernat 11.17pm.

This is what I said:

Hi there.

I have, up until now, been a supporter of Ardern and the Labour Government and am not one to speak up. However, my position is wavering and I worry that you are out of touch with what many New Zealanders are seeing and feeling right now.

So here are three things from me:

1. It was and is naive to think we can stamp out this virus. Why werent we fully vaccinating monthsago and building a hospital to cater to people with Covid in the future? A vaccine is not going to be a magic bullet.People will still get Covidwhen vaccinated.Where are we going to put them all when we loosen the rules/borders? Our hospitalsseem to be struggling enough as it is and will not cope with more cases of Covid-19. And why oh why do we still have all of our MIQ facilities in downtown Auckland?

2. You need to help people see and understand the long term goal. Many can notsee a way out at the moment. But first, you need to know what that is, and Im not sure this is known anymore? What are we working towards, what is the plan? As above, people get vaccinated, but then what happens when we still get Covid? What about the economy, jobs, businesses?Do you think theyll all just bounce back?

3. Your decisions now are changing the trajectory of our country forever. I am worried, a lot of people are worried. We are losing faith in your plan, asmany of us dont know what it is anymore. This going in and out of level 4seems not sustainable and, quite frankly, some of the things we are having to do dont make sense.

Thelack of strategic and long term thinking seeminglygoing on is unnerving.

It appears this cant be about just saving lives. Lives and livelihoods are going to be lost because of this path we now find ourselves on.

You seem to beignoring what was obvious from the beginning;our health systemappears woefully inept.

I know you and the team may be tired and exhausted, it must be hard to think clearly now.

Please consider getting more experts in from overseas. Its ok to pivot and change tack if you need to, please dont make this about egos.

Please do whats right.Build hospitals, get ready for Covidto come because we arent going to beat it.

And believe me, I hope I am wrong.

I can only hope that in another four years time I am writing an opinion piece saying that I was.

Because, perhaps unlike some people at the top, I dont mind putting my hand up and admitting that maybe I got it wrong.

Read the rest here:

I believed in the 'Jacinda effect,' now Covid-19 has made me critical - Stuff.co.nz

The Pakistan Cricket Board (PCB) was humiliated once again on Friday when New Zealand Cricket (NZC) opted to cancel their bilateral series against the country owing to security concerns. This occurred minutes before the first ODI match in Rawalpindi was scheduled to begin. The PCB later issued a statement claiming that Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan had spoken to his New Zealand counterpart Jacinda Ardern, but she declined to heed his appeal, citing the same security concerns raised by her government and NZC security on the ground in Pakistan.

Pakistan's Interior Minister Sheikh Rashid Ahmed has revealed the conversation between their Prime Minister and Jacinda Ardern. According to the New Zealand Herald, Prime Minister Imran Khan assured Ardern of security arrangements in Rawalpindi, even guaranteeing that there would be no security issues. Ardern, on the other hand, refused to accept Imran Khan's request, claiming that the problem isn't the threat but that they have genuine information that their team may come under an attack if they leave the hotel. Ahmed claimed that NZC security informed the local authorities about the alleged threat on Friday, and when they were enquired further to reveal more details, they "did not have any".

A three-match ODI series followed by five T20Is was scheduled between New Zealand and Pakistan. This was the first visit to Pakistan by a New Zealand cricket squad in almost 18 years. The last time the Kiwis visited Pakistan was for a bilateral Test series in 2003, but the tour was cut short due to a blast outside the New Zealand team hotel. The visiting Sri Lanka squad was targeted by terrorists on their way to the ground for a match in 2009, dealing a significant blow to Pakistan cricket, following which international cricket in the country stopped for years as teams ceased to visit due to security concerns.

International cricket had just begun to return to Pakistan, but the current turbulence in the region following the Taliban's takeover of Afghanistan has renewed fears about Pakistan's ability to conduct events in the country safely. Following New Zealand Cricket's decision to cancel its bilateral series with Pakistan, England and Australia are likely to cancel theirs as well.

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'PM Jacinda Ardern had genuine information that NZ team may face attack in Pak': Report - Republic World

Overseas New Zealanders who are now trying to return home are facing a queue of tens of thousands of people as the country reopens bookings to cross the border.

New Zealand's borders have been strictly controlled since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic only citizens, permanent residents and a handful of essential workers can enter.

Also, all of them must make a booking to spend two weeks in government-controlled quarantine (MIQ). The demand for these spaces has been increasing drastically.

As per reports by the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment 31,800 people were in the queue on Monday, and 5,364 of them secured vouchers for rooms.

The vouchers were released at 9am and all were gone within two and a half hours.

Also read |New fissure opens in Canary Islands volcano

The joint head of MIQ, Megan Main, in a statement said, "I know many thousands of people missed out on vouchers in todays release."

She added, "I want to reassure people that there are still several thousand vouchers still to be released through to the end of the year. They will get other chances. There will be another large release of a few thousand vouchers early next week and there may also be another smaller one later this week.New Zealand struggles to battle the Delta variant outbreak.

A level 4 lockdown has managed to reduce daily case numbers to about 11-24 a day but has not yet eliminated community transmission completely.

Meanwhile, on Monday, Prime minister Jacinda Ardern announced that Auckland, the centre of the outbreak, would move out of its level 4 lockdown into level 3 restrictions.

This will allow socially distanced services like takeaway food, at midnight on Tuesday.

The rest of the country is at level 2, no longer in lockdown, but with some restrictions on gathering size and mask-wearing.

New Zealand reported 14 new cases on Tuesday.

There are now 1,085 cases in the outbreak, 790 of which have recovered.

Original post:

Frustration for New Zealand returnees as COVID-19 quarantine waiting list hits 30,000 - WION

Reuters reports that the aim of the summit is to deliver progress on 17 sustainable development goals, created by the United Nations in 2015 as a wide-ranging "to-do" list including ending hunger and poverty, achieving gender equality and taking action on climate change.

Guterres told the summit - held virtually because of the coronavirus pandemic on the sidelines of the annual high-level UN General Assembly - that food systems need to support the health and well-being of all people, protect the planet and support prosperity.

We need to re-think how we see and value food not simply as a commodity to be traded, but as a right that every person shares.

"As a global community, we need to shift our approach on agricultural subsidies, and employment support for workers," he said. "And we need to re-think how we see and value food not simply as a commodity to be traded, but as a right that every person shares."

After remaining virtually unchanged for five years, world hunger and malnutrition rose last year by around 118 million people to 768 million, with most of the increase likely caused by the pandemic, according to a UN report.

On internationally traded markets, world food prices were up 33.9% year-on-year in June, according to the UN food agency's price index, which measures a basket of cereals, oilseeds, dairy products, meat and sugar.

"We must grow food where the environment supports it best and where emissions efficiency is greatest, while minimizing the barriers to trade and efficient distribution," New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern told the summit.

US President Joe Biden said on 21 September that Washington would spend $10 billion to end hunger and invest in food systems at home and abroad. US officials said half of that money would fund Feed the Future over the next five years, a US initiative that aims to reduce poverty, hunger, and malnutrition.

The World Bank Group, International Food Policy Research Institute and the Food & Land Use Coalition introduced a roadmap at the summit that aims to show how capital can be shifted from a high-carbon, unequal, extractive food system and into models that add value for people, planet and the economy.

They said the roadmap could unlock $4.5 trillion in new business opportunities every year by 2030 and ensure a more sustainable food system.

The summit also saw farming organizations across the globe seek to make contributions to food security. In a joint declaration signed by EU farming union Copa and Cogeca and other key producer organizations, farmers made commitments outlining how their efforts will shore up the global food system.

Farming groups also stressed the need to actively collaborate with policymakers to ensure that all stakeholders can partake in a sustainable food future.

The joint declaration underlines the commitment of primary producers to continue their efforts in producing enough nutritious food for a growing population while improving the sustainability of their production. They also commit to working hard to preserve habitats while contributing to social vitality and job creation in rural areas.

The declaration calls on EU members and other key stakeholders to reward farmers efforts to produce food while respecting planetary boundaries and biodiversity. It also calls on governments to facilitate the access to technologies, knowledge and financial resources that will help farmers achieve the objectives of the Food Systems Summit. Farming groups also stressed the need to actively collaborate with policymakers to ensure that all stakeholders can partake in a sustainable food future.

Read more about this story here.

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UN Food Systems Summit looks for recipe to tackle global food dysfunction - The Pig Site

By Geoffrey Miller for the Democracy Project.

Opinion - China's level of anger at the new Aukus defence pact between Australia, the UK and the US was only to be expected.

France's was not, and Paris's dramatic recall of its ambassadors to Canberra and Washington at the weekend may be just the start of the impact.

Photo: AFP

Even in New Zealand, policymakers will be feeling more than a little miffed - despite Jacinda Ardern stressing that everything was fine.

When quizzed about Aukus, Ardern said "we weren't approached but nor would I expect us to be" and emphasised the "strong relationships" with all three Aukus members.

But perhaps deliberately, the New Zealand Prime Minister also revealed that she had only been informed of the deal by the night before.

While the US suspended its obligations to New Zealand under the Anzus alliance in 1986, the arrangement has never been formally terminated.

Australia remains New Zealand's only formal ally.

After talks with Ardern in May, Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison went to great lengths to emphasise harmony between Canberra and Wellington.

He warned that there would be others who "seek to divide us" and "undermine Australia and New Zealand's security by trying to create points of difference that are not there".

The leaders' joint statement reinforced the supposed unity: "The Australia-New Zealand relationship is unique in its closeness; we are partners and allies, and we share a relationship of family, of whnau."

Of course, the bonhomie between Ardern and Morrison in May was to a degree exaggerated.

The meeting followed a month of debate over the level of New Zealand's commitment to the Five Eyes - a period which had culminated in an Australian TV programme asking whether New Zealand was becoming 'New Xi-Land'.

Fast-forward four months and it turns out that the Australia-New Zealand divide was real after all.

Shortly after his trip to New Zealand to meet Jacinda Ardern, Scott Morrison headed to Cornwall for the G7 and hatched the Aukus plan with Boris Johnson and Joe Biden.

New Zealand was not even worth a courtesy phone call - at least until the very last minute.

Moreover, Aukus means that nuclear technology will soon be arriving on New Zealand's doorstep.

For New Zealand - which declared itself a nuclear-free zone in 1987 - this should be more than a little concerning.

On Thursday, Ardern stated the obvious - that New Zealand's legislation meant the nuclear-powered submarines would not be allowed in its waters.

But otherwise, Wellington will not be protesting very loudly about Aukus.

There is zero chance that New Zealand will recall its diplomatic representatives to Canberra or Washington.

That's because New Zealand is poised to be the big winner of the Aukus partnership.

Trade is a big factor - but it's not the only one.

The day after the Aukus announcement, the EU released its long-awaited Indo-Pacific strategy.

The strategy explicitly prioritises the need to sign free trade deals with Australia, Indonesia and New Zealand.

But France's fury means that Australia's agreement is now almost certainly going to be delayed.

When asked about the deal, France's European affairs minister Clment Beaune said "I don't see how we can trust our Australian partners".

And Arnaud Danjean, a senior Member of the European Parliament - which would have to ratify any agreement - tweeted "Considering how they behave with a European ally that was the most committed to build a lasting, strategic partnership in Indo-Pacific, Australians can expect more than a delay in concluding the Free Trade Agreement with EU!"

It might be easy to write all this off as short-term sabre-rattling.

But the apoplectic language used by France's foreign minister Jean-Yves Le Drian - who called Australia's cancellation of its $AU90 billion submarine deal a "stab in the back" - coupled with France's recall of its ambassadors to Canberra and Washington shows that Paris is deadly serious.

Moreover, Brexit means that France and Germany - the EU's traditional two powerhouses - are now firmly back in the bloc's driving seat.

Indeed, the impact of Brexit and the ensuing rivalry with the United Kingdom is a major motivator behind the EU's sudden surge of interest in the Indo-Pacific.

If France wants to stop the EU's free trade deal with Australia - or heavily delay it - it can and will.

In fact, the move would recall French President Charles de Gaulle's own repeated vetoing of Britain's applications to join the then European Economic Community in the 1960s.

If Australia is punished and the EU seeks to reward the countries that have not blotted their copybooks, Indonesia and New Zealand could turn out to be major beneficiaries.

Jacinda Ardern's very good working relationship with Emmanuel Macron - cemented by the pair's co-chairing of the Christchurch Call - will not hurt either.

But trade is just the start.

Aukus has effectively formalised a new hierarchy when it comes to countries' views of China. Essentially, a new 'premier league' of hawks has been created.

For now, this consists of the Aukus members - Australia, the UK and the US - but in time, both India and Japan may align themselves with Aukus - even if more informally.

Both countries are already members of the reinvigorated 'Quad' grouping that also includes both the US and Australia.

The Quad will hold its first face-to-face leaders' meeting in Washington on Friday.

Below the hawks, a second division includes the EU, Canada and New Zealand, as well as potentially some Southeast Asian countries.

This grouping is not oblivious to the challenges presented by China, but generally prefers to take a less confrontational approach.

Its preferred modus operandi emphasises partnerships, engagement and dialogue (including behind the scenes) - combined with a more limited show of force when needed.

Formalising and developing these methods is essentially what the EU's new Indo-Pacific strategy is all about.

By design, Aukus is and will remain a very exclusive club.

The constant pressure put on New Zealand over the past year to sign up to the US position on China may start to diminish as a result.

Instead, New Zealand can start to work more closely with the more like-minded countries that are more closely aligned with its views.

In the EU, Germany will also play a major role.

The imminent departure of Angela Merkel - with whom Jacinda Ardern has been on friendly terms - will not necessarily hurt New Zealand's cause.

In fact, if this Sunday's German elections put the Social Democrats (SPD) and Greens back into government for the first time since 2005 - as polling suggests is likely - relations may only improve further.

Ardern's personal star power and her past role as president of the International Union of Socialist Youth mean she would be welcomed particularly by the SPD.

Exactly what a more coordinated, non-Aukus approach towards China might involve remains to be seen.

But it is worth thinking about.

* Geoffrey Miller is the Democracy Project's international analyst and writes on current New Zealand foreign policy and related geopolitical issues. He has lived in Germany and the Middle East and is a fluent speaker of German and Arabic.

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Geoffrey Miller: New Zealand could be the big winner of Aukus fallout - RNZ