Daily Archives: September 29, 2021

PANDAs Nick Hudson on the politics of Covid: We need to push back. This is not about a virus. – BizNews

Posted: September 29, 2021 at 7:23 am

A mere two years ago, the world painted in this article by Nick Hudson of PANDA would have been perceived to be so fictional that it could comfortably have read as a prologue to George Orwells masterpiece Nineteen Eighty-Four. Published in 1949, Nineteen Eighty-Four examined the role of truth and facts within politics and the ways in which they are manipulated. Aclassic literary example of political and dystopian fiction, the book centred on the consequences of totalitarianism, mass surveillance, and repressive regimentation of persons and behaviours within society. Today, our reality involves governments across the world implementing or seriously considering theimplementation of measures such as vaccine passports which are sold as a ticket to freedom, with the unfortunate downside thatthose without vaccine passportswill not be afforded these same freedoms. In the name of Zero Covid objectives, individual agency has been incrementally surrendered and dissenting voices have been silenced. How societies have managed to accept such radical regression is not hard to understand when one considers the ability of fear toincapacitate rational thinking. In this article, Nick Hudson looks at the forces at play which, he believes, are driving the world in the direction of centralist totalitarianism.

By Nick Hudson, PANDA

This is the fourth of a series of talks:

A false narrative about Covid has supported ineffective and highly destructive policies leading to the evisceration of individual rights, democracy and the rule of law in the name of a disease that presents negligible risk to most of the population. Virtually every element of the response has not been based on good science and the data prove that wherever you look.

The spectre has arisen of mandatory vaccination just yesterday called a conspiracy theory. The injections do not substantially hinder infection or transmission of the disease and present net harms to the young and the recovered, who represent the vast majority of the population and for whom the virus presents miniscule risk. They cannot eliminate Covid.

There is therefore no sound epidemiological or medical basis for mandating injections, even if violation of bodily integrity was not egregious, which it is, let alone not a violation of both the Nuremberg Code and the Siracusa Principles, which it is.

Our public health officials, most of whom sadly now carry water for pharmaceutical companies, justify mandates on the basis that the injections are safe and effective, ignoring the absence of long-term safety experience and unprecedented adverse event reports, featuring thrombotic events, heart inflammation and reproductive system irregularities. Even absent the latter, this is shamefullymaybe even scandalouslypoor logic. A banana could be called safe and effective, but that does not mean you should be forced to eat one at whatever interval for the rest of your life, especially when the only people telling you to do so are banana farmers.

This cultish behaviour was presaged by the Global Vaccine Action Plan, ratified by 194 governments back in 2012. In light of this plan, it is not surprising that in several countries mandates and vaccine ID or passport systems have been implemented, despite the lack of any logic for such measures. Some recognise natural immunity, for now, but that is beside the point. Such measures signify a very important thing.

A vision for our future is being implemented outside of any democratic scrutiny. And it is a dangerous vision.

At least three big forces are at play, driving in the direction of centralist totalitarianism. First there is the influence of China its propaganda, its infiltration, its influence and widespread fetishism in the West for its surveillance state.

Second, there is a drift to authoritarianism to a technocratic vision repeatedly referenced by political leaders, taking their cue from international organisations. We hear of Build Back Better, the New Normal, the New World Order, the 4th Industrial Revolution, and the Great Reset. This kind of talk long in the making re-emerged with the very first death in Italy, and has been a constant presence ever since. In France you already cant travel on a train without having your passport validated. We are on the cusp of having our behaviour and speech nudged by our vaccine passport, the aim of which is to bring about a tyrannical system of social credit scoring.

If the WEF has its way, by 2030 we are to eat bugs instead of meat, own nothing and be happy, have our identity read at checkpoints by heart rate scanners so that we dont have to take off our masks, not need vehicles as well never need to walk more than 15 minutes from our houses, connect to the internet only with government authorisation, benefit from a range of technological implants, and sacrifice bodily integrity to whatever injections authorities demand. Some say these are not goals, but predictions. Yet political agendas, as Marx showed us, are generally elucidated by way of predictions cast as inevitable outcomes to which the arc of history bends.

This techno-technocracy will apparently end not only viral pandemics, but all manner of perceived global threats, from climate change, gender-based violence, and toxic masculinity, to systemic racism, top soil erosion and other catastrophes du jour. A close working relationship between mega-corporations and a government of the global elite threaten to make it less important whom we elect at home than who is funded from abroad.

Our rights and liberties are in grave danger of being constrained in the interests of preserving the earths rights, as enshrined by the Terra Carta, squashing the Magna Carta back in its liberal box after eight centuries of escape.

Third, there is a background of financial unravelling, as decades of monetary mismanagement come home to roost, foreboding a financial crisis to make the last one look trivial. Central bankers are pushing for resolution by way of central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), which, in their programmable form, allow for unprecedented state control of transactions and hence society.

Covid measures are a first taste of what a detached class, truly enamoured of these ideas, would like to impose upon you and me. Permanently.

Weve just had our training wheels on.

Lockdowns and mandates arrived without precedent or any hint of due process, flagrantly disregarding time-honoured approaches to managing diseases with a wave of the hand. In the same way, the idea is that all of this should be imposed upon us without regard for our opinion. In this world, our opinions do not count.

The broad picture is one of an attempted concentration of power by powerful states and unaccountable organisations, segueing into the global level, of surveillance power in the mold of China. We can see clearly the ideology of centralism at work. Its bedecked in the language of top-down power and social engineering. A far-off political and corporate mandarinate aims to determine goals and trade-offs for you.

Centralism appeals to those who wield power. Events such as Brexit and Trumps election have made centralisers resentful of electoral democracy. But as a system for organising society at significant scale, centralism has an impressive failure rate think of the Soviet Union, Maoist China, Hitlers Third Reich. And the reasons for this are not too complicated.

At the most basic level is that most foundational of all subjects, epistemology the theory of knowledge. Anything we dont know about, every explanation we lack, is a manifestation of complexity by the standards of our times. In the face of this complexity, all knowledge creation is evolutionary. Nobody has the power to work it all out, so progress takes place by an endless cycle of very marginal conjecture and criticism. The analogy to biology is close. Whereas genes innovate by novel sexual combination and mutation, the evolution of knowledge, and hence of culture, occurs in a marketplace of ideas. Genetic evolution is tested over generations. Under the correct conditions, which only existed for brief periods in the ancient world, and for the last three hundred years in the West, knowledge creation can deliver swift and dramatic improvements in living standards. No sooner do we see a problem, than we solve it, even if somewhat imperfectly, and not always to everyones benefit. Those correct conditions are the ones which permit and protect innovation.

For most of human history the evolution of knowledge was prevented by political arrangements that centralised power and caused hierarchies to ossify. Unless their lives were upended by turmoil, people died in households that were largely indistinguishable from the ones they were born into. All challenges to such stasis were greeted by gruesome violence. The stasis was entrenched, dreary, devoid of creativity. Errors lingered. As the philosopher-physicist, David Deutsch, has proposed, the greatest evil is destruction of the means of error correction. Or to put it another way, its a big problem when we destroy our ability to discover and correct our mistakes.

It is only to would-be rulers and the chronically coddled that centralism holds any appeal. People who confuse their wealth and success with omniscience attract a following of bureaucrats and academics, who as a class are happily ignorant about the productive world of commerce and labour that pays their salaries, and which affords the distinct possibility that they will die in a house much better than the one they were born to.

In recent decades,the time-honoured technique of entitled technocrats has been rolled out before our very eyes. The pattern is that they fabricate or exaggerate a collection of problems to which only centralised, top-down, technocratic solutions are admitted. Maintain a steady flow of propaganda to stoke fear, and you can disrupt the cognitive capacity of entire populations, leading them to partake in wild goose chases. Manipulated into a state of mass psychosis, societies can be stultified into abandoning vital features of their worlds that enabled their flourishing.

A convergent political agenda is powerfully propagandised, causing an ideology to distil. Marx observed that the elites are the most important targets for propaganda. What the man in the street thinks is far less important than the beliefs and conduct of those who occupy the higher echelons of society. If agendas are to be advanced, elites must be kept onboard and well-disciplined. And elites are readily disciplined, through fear of smearing and being ostracised; excommunicated so to speak, like Galileo. By cajoling a sufficient mass of them, you can thus create the appearance that there is a consensus and air of inevitability, even if it only exists in an elite bubble.

The current of centralist ideology merges with another great stream. Postmodern critical theory has been ascendent as a dominant social philosophy. In place of realism it honours lived experience, turning away from rational analysis of the facts. Ideas must be assessed not by virtue of their correspondence with reality, but in hegemonic termsthrough the lens of discourse and power structures. The search for truth is irrelevant, because there is no truth. What counts is how much of a platform you have and how loudly your voice sounds. Opposing ideas are now greeted not with debate and engagement, but with censorship and deplatforming. People who disagree with you should not be given a platform. Speech acts are important, not because they disseminate ideas, but only insofar as they signal tribal allegiance.

This lays the ground for the emergence of the phenomena of political correctness, wokeness and virtue signalling. When they speak of following the science, what they mean is follow the narrative. Moral valence is interpreted only in terms of loyalty to the narrative. Disagreement constitutes violence. If I disagree with you, you will question my agenda, call me a bigot, call for me to be deplatformed, and demand curtailment of my speech.

The adoption of this philosophy of critical theory has been promoted by the Geneva organisations, embedding itself in the syllabi of educational establishments over the decades. The culture of debate and engagement is fast disappearing.

In the world of commerce and economics, it is held as an article of faith that capitalism is failing, and that we need to impose on corporate oppressors stakeholder governance, ESG scorecards, sustainability, best practice, inclusivity and inclusive growth. These word salads and hollow buzzwords trigger a deluge of pointless compliance bureaucracy. Little attention is given to how the items on the long checklist of desirable attributes are to be traded off, and the resulting best practice decisions are often comically nonsensical.

With a flick of the wrist we call forth Modern Monetary Theory, facilitating gratuitous spending, absolving governments from balancing their books, whether nominally or substantively, and enabling financial repression of staggering proportions.

The temptation of the centralisers to say this time is different is tied up with the false notion that being able to control something complex, like the human race, has to do with how much information you have about it. The idea goes that if we put enough sensors into the field, uploading data all the time on our new 5G networks, then we will be able to design and manage our world towards better outcomes.

But it is not for want of information that social engineering fails. It fails for want of explanations understanding. Given the rich complexity of the world, we cannot foresee the second-order effects of central planning, the unintended consequences, or articulate coherent objectives or trade-offs. The centralists demonstrated this most comprehensively with Covid. Not only were their models way out in terms of the burden of the disease, but the effects of their policies were not just smaller than they had projected, but entirely non-existent. In some cases they even worked in the wrong direction. So too it will go with any other aspect of our lives to which they turn their attention.

The political analog of all of this indeed perhaps a root of it all can be found in the Sustainable Development Goals and in the proliferation of rights charters, that have expanded from tightly defined negative rights aimed at protecting the individual from the state, into a dazzling array of positive rights that afford tyrannical bureaucrats a claim against citizens in the interests of promoting whatever social agendas they find convenient. Apparently well intentioned attempts to improve the world are quickly exploited in damaging and even criminal ways. The road to hell is paved with good intentions, but also haughty ones.

It was into these ideological waters of centralising arrogance that the notion of lockdowns and mandates as legitimate tools of public health were submerged, never to be subjected to challenge; instant axioms of woke dogma.

Lockdowns assault on lower income people, the young and small businesses amplified already pronounced injustices that had threatened economic collapse. The resource claims of retired people have long necessitated a default on those claims or progressive enslavement of the youth, or some combination of the two. Much of the West is insolvent in this sense. A story cloaked by the early noise of Covid was the perilous frailty of the US monetary system in March 2020, and unprecedented activity by the Federal Reserve, under the moniker Going Direct. In short, the US has both a solvency and a liquidity problem. It is hard to see how curtailment of quantitative easing will not provoke yet another market crash and banking crisis.

All of this threatens to topple many governments or at least provoke profound electoral shifts. What will rise from the ashes? Well, Illsay it again.A vision for our future is being implemented outside of any democratic scrutiny. And the vision is the global technocracy envisaged by centralists.If youve read some history or agree with even part of what Im saying, youll surely agree that any move in that direction needs to be fought energetically and with immense resolve.

Whats happening outside of the elite bubbles? They may not be alive to much of what Ive said so far, but on the street people are questioning large strata of people that do not participate in the elite consensus. While system-ensconced elites may believe that capitalism is failing, ordinary folk know that it is their governments and crony corporatists the centralisers that they need to be wary of. The sense of an emergent neo-feudalism is palpable, and they would concur with the sentiments of Shmuel Yosef Agnon:

The wise men do not partake in leading the world because they know there are even wiser men and wish the world to be led by them. Meanwhile, up jump the fools and evil men and come and take the world into their hands and lead the world according to their evil and stupid ways.

Who is the enemy? Facing an ideology and institutional capture so widespread, it is hard to work backwards through the propaganda to the source of the political agenda. This is a many-headed hydra. But the same names come up time and time again, corrupting our institutions of public health and medical science, channelling our media into a unison chorus, and corporate executives into unthinking subscription, and bribing both incumbent and opposition politicians into co-option or abeyance. The Gates, Open Society, Rockefeller, Blair and Clinton Foundations, and the WEF show up all the time but there is a long list of entities in whose cases it is difficult to tell whether they are primary actors, opportunists or simply part of the apparatus. The Geneva organisations; in the media space, Reuters, Associated Press, Project Syndicate and Publicis, and the creepily named censorship organisations, Trusted News Initiative and Coalition for Content Provenance and Authenticity.

We should not ignore significant propaganda disseminators Purpose, Global Action Plan, Common Purpose, One Young World and Global Citizens, and their various chapters and think tanks, preaching centralism behind a veil of virtue signalling and lofty ambitions. The world of Big Pharma and Big Tech, and large financial firms that effectively control them.

The array of actors doesnt constitute a shady conspiracy, but rather a broad, open ideological network. As perpetrators of the immense and destructive power-grab dressed up as the Covid policy response, this network must be fought on a broad front.

What can we do about this, faced with massively funded propaganda, rampant censorship, and elites befuddled by the manipulations of behavioural science?

We need to resist, to push back. This is not about a virus. Its about the battle between authoritarianism and real ground-up democracy, between centralism and localism. For people who have been terrorised by this bug, this is a difficult message to process. Its hard for them to accept that both the Covid outcome and the collateral damage would have been far better had we reacted like we did to the similar scale epidemics of the 50s and 60swhich is to say, by doing virtually nothing.

So we need to provide a unified alternative for people who have called bullshit on the whole narrative, even though they have had no platform to say they have done so. Mainstream media has buried the extent of such dissent, which comes largely from the people who actually kept society running during lockdowns. This last year witnessed the largest peaceful protests that have ever occurred, yet they have been downplayed as a few hundred antivaxxers who took to the streets. Religious groups are starting to get the picture, or at least to exhibit signs of internal conflict, as with the Catholic Church. We need to help them along by reminding them of the many who died to afford us valuable liberties.

We stand on the shoulders of giants. Should we now cower in the corner?

What kind of governance should we be aiming for? Many would veer to the other side of the spectrum, where we find the utopian dreams that are the opposite of the centralists those of the anarchists and radical libertarians. A more plausible way would be to consider the doctrine of subsidiarity the idea that sociopolitical issues should be dealt with at the most local level that is consistent with their resolution. This conceptualisation permits the diversity and decentralisation necessary to foster knowledge growth and economic growth, both of which we require to solve our real problems.It respects autonomy, thus limiting domination and injustice. It can appeal to civil liberty defenders from the non-authoritarian left, and to libertarians from the non-authoritarian right.

We need to shift the emphasis from Covid by highlighting the dystopian potential of centralists dreams, at the same time supporting people who are establishing decentralised platforms, whether in the domains of cryptocurrency or social media. We need to deploy these to create parallel societies, projecting a more attractive vision. We need to vote, if we ever do again, for political movements that genuinely push back. We need to demonstrate the courage and humanity that centralists never possess, and model the vigour and creativity that bureaucrats can only envy.

We need to become more vigilant, to tune our ears to the word salad. When we hear terms like sustainable, inclusive or best practice, we must not blindly accept the admonitions that follow them.

We need to have the courage to just say no, to insist that its time to move on. Courage is not the absence of fear. Courage consists of overcoming fear. Its up to every individual out there to overcome fear. We need to turn away from mainstream media and listen to dissenting voices. Were going to have to find a more realistic, humane way for the sake of society and our children. This is going to require great courage.

Doctor Who: What Does the Second Coming of Russell T. Davies Mean For the Show? – Den of Geek

Posted: at 7:23 am

Davies will also have to deal with even more hostility than initially faced in 2005. Theres a strange group within fandom who are hoping that the Woke agenda of Chibnalls approach will be gone when Davies returns, as if they have never read or watched anything hes written. They presumably dont remember the threads on Davies gay agenda on Outpost Gallifrey, or when the simple act of casting a black man in a recurring role in 2005 led to irate posts on right-wing forums. The political correctness gone mad buzzwords of yesteryear now mutated into complaints about woke nonsense. If youve read Davies novelisation of Rose its clear that his approach to Doctor Who now will result in headlines about polluting our childrens minds with ideas of tolerance, acceptance and compassion woke zealotry. Russell T. Davies isnt perfect, of course, but like Doctor Who itself, his storytelling is rarely without a political conscience.

One thing worth highlighting, raised initially by Alex Moreland on his blog, is that the show will be co-produced by Bad Wolf productions. This wont have raised many eyebrows as its assumed to be part of the package of bringing in producers Julie Gardner and Jane Tranter. However, as Moreland points out, changes to the BBC charter means it has to open up in-house properties to bids from external companies to produce them this is the start of that.

Either way, Doctor Who is no longer going to be produced entirely in-house by the BBC, and its possible that the same forces that complain about wokeness in the show have driven the organisation to this point. Beneath the decisions over who gets to run a television programme are reflections of the current political situation, the endless churn of Interesting Times. Given this, then, its possibly a case of damage limitation by the BBC: if they have to pick an external company to co-produce, at least Bad Wolf can be relied upon to treat the property with respect and Davies has fiercely defended the corporation in the past.

Davies appointment can be interpreted as a conservation measure, both in the wider sphere of politics and regarding the show itself. Fan talk (at least in the circles Im in) is dissatisfied with Doctor Who, seeing it as a show needing a rest or reinvention. Chibnalls departure felt like a chance to try someone new, with names like Sally Wainwright and Nida Manzoor mentioned alongside former writers like Jamie Mathieson and Sarah Dollard.

The least positive interpretation of RTDs return is that, for all its talk of diversity and inclusion, British television has failed to develop anyone new to a position where they could take over Doctor Who. Or even that they have done this, but then potentially ignored them for this role.

What we can be positive about, however, is that Russell T. Davies writing is better than ever. Januarys Its a Sin is widely considered his masterpiece, and hes clearly still fizzing with ideas and passion. He loves Doctor Who, hes hardly going to take this job just for the money. The hope is that this is a transitional period for the show, the passing from a period of uncertainty to an exciting, unknown future.

See the original post here:

Doctor Who: What Does the Second Coming of Russell T. Davies Mean For the Show? - Den of Geek

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Conceptions of God – Wikipedia

Posted: at 7:22 am

Specific religious views of a supreme being

Conceptions of God in monotheist, pantheist, and panentheist religions or of the supreme deity in henotheistic religions can extend to various levels of abstraction:

The first recordings that survive of monotheistic conceptions of God, borne out of henotheism and (mostly in Eastern religions) monism, are from the Hellenistic period. Of the many objects and entities that religions and other belief systems across the ages have labeled as divine, the one criterion they share is their acknowledgment as divine by a group or groups of human beings.

In his Metaphysics, Aristotle discusses the meaning of "being as being". Aristotle holds that "being" primarily refers to the Unmoved Movers, and assigned one of these to each movement in the heavens. Each Unmoved Mover continuously contemplates its own contemplation, and everything that fits the second meaning of "being" by having its source of motion in itself, i.e., moves because the knowledge of its Mover causes it to emulate this Mover (or should).

Aristotle's definition of God attributes perfection to this being, and, as a perfect being, it can only contemplate upon perfection and not on imperfection; otherwise perfection would not be one of his attributes. God, according to Aristotle, is in a state of "stasis" untouched by change and imperfection. The "unmoved mover" is very unlike the conception of God that one sees in most religions. It has been likened to a person who is playing dominos and pushes one of them over, so that every other domino in the set is pushed over as well, without the being having to do anything about it. Although, in the 18th century, the French educator Allan Kardec brought a very similar conception of God during his work of codifying Spiritism, this differs from the interpretation of God in most religions, where he is seen to be personally involved in his creation.

In the ancient Greek philosophical Hermetica, the ultimate reality is called by many names, such as God, Lord, Father, Mind (Nous), the Creator, the All, the One, etc.[1] However, peculiar to the Hermetic view of the divinity is that it is both the all (Greek: to pan) and the creator of the all: all created things pre-exist in God,[2] and God is the nature of the cosmos (being both the substance from which it proceeds and the governing principle which orders it),[3] yet the things themselves and the cosmos were all created by God. Thus, God creates itself,[4] and is both transcendent (as the creator of the cosmos) and immanent (as the created cosmos).[5] These ideas are closely related to the cosmo-theological views of the Stoics.[6]

The Abrahamic God in this sense is the conception of God that remains a common attribute of all three traditions. God is conceived of as eternal, omnipotent, omniscient and as the creator of the universe. God is further held to have the properties of holiness, justice, omnibenevolence and omnipresence. Proponents of Abrahamic faiths believe that God is also transcendent, meaning that he is outside space and outside time and therefore not subject to anything within his creation, but at the same time a personal God, involved, listening to prayer and reacting to the actions of his creatures.

In Judaism, God has been conceived in a variety of ways.[7] Traditionally, Judaism holds that YHWH, the God of Abraham, Isaac, and Jacob and the national god of the Israelites, delivered the Israelites from slavery in Egypt, and gave them the Law of Moses at biblical Mount Sinai as described in the Torah. According to the rationalist stream of Judaism articulated by Maimonides, which later came to dominate much of official traditional Jewish thought, God is understood as the absolute one, indivisible, and incomparable being who is the ultimate cause of all existence. Traditional interpretations of Judaism generally emphasize that God is personal yet also transcendent, while some modern interpretations of Judaism emphasize that God is a force or ideal.[8]

Jewish monotheism is a continuation of earlier Hebrew henotheism, the exclusive worship of the God of Israel (YHWH) as prescribed in the Torah and practiced at the Temple of Jerusalem. Strict monotheism emerges in Hellenistic Judaism and Rabbinical Judaism. Pronunciation of the proper name of the God of Israel came to be avoided in the Hellenistic era (Second Temple Judaism) and instead Jews refer to God as HaShem, meaning "the Name". In prayer and reading of scripture, the Tetragrammaton (YHWH) is substituted with Adonai ("my Lord").

Some[who?] Kabbalistic thinkers have held the belief that all of existence is itself a part of God, and that we as humanity are unaware of our own inherent godliness and are grappling to come to terms with it. The standing view in Hasidism currently, is that there is nothing in existence outside of God all being is within God, and yet all of existence cannot contain him. Regarding this, Solomon stated while dedicating the Temple, "But will God in truth dwell with mankind on the earth? Behold, the heaven and the heaven of heavens cannot contain You."[9]

Modern Jewish thinkers have constructed a wide variety of other ideas about God. Hermann Cohen believed that God should be identified with the "archetype of morality," an idea reminiscent of Plato's idea of the Good.[10] Mordecai Kaplan believed that God is the sum of all natural processes that allow man to become self-fulfilled.[11]

Within Christianity, the doctrine of the Trinity states that God is a single being that exists, simultaneously and eternally, as a perichoresis of three hypostases (i.e. persons; personae, prosopa): the Father (the Source, the Eternal Majesty); the Son (the eternal Logos ("Word"), manifest in human form as Jesus and thereafter as Christ); and the Holy Spirit (the Paraclete or advocate). Since the 4th Century AD, in both Eastern and Western Christianity, this doctrine has been stated as "One God in Three Persons", all three of whom, as distinct and co-eternal "persons" or "hypostases", share a single divine essence, being, or nature.

Following the First Council of Constantinople, the Son is described as eternally begotten by the Father ("begotten of his Father before all worlds"[12]). This generation does not imply a beginning for the Son or an inferior relationship with the Father. The Son is the perfect image of his Father, and is consubstantial with him. The Son returns that love, and that union between the two is the third person of the Trinity, the Holy Spirit. The Holy Spirit is consubstantial and co-equal with the Father and the Son. Thus, God contemplates and loves himself, enjoying infinite and perfect beatitude within himself. This relationship between the other two persons is called procession. Although the theology of the Trinity is accepted in most Christian churches, there are theological differences, notably between Catholic and Orthodox thought on the procession of the Holy Spirit (see filioque). Some Christian communions do not accept the Trinitarian doctrine, at least not in its traditional form. Notable groups include the Jehovah's Witnesses, Mormons, Christadelphians, Unitarians, Arians, and Adoptionists.

Within Christianity, Unitarianism is the view that God consists of only one person, the Father, instead of three persons as Trinitarianism states.[13] Unitarians believe that mainstream Christianity has been corrupted over history, and that it is not strictly monotheistic. There are different Unitarian views on Jesus, ranging from seeing him purely as a man who was chosen by God, to seeing him as a divine being, as the Son of God who had pre-existence.[14] Thus, Unitarianism is typically divided into two principal groups:

Even though the term "unitarian" did not first appear until the 17th century in reference to the Polish Brethren,[18][16] the basic tenets of Unitarianism go back to the time of Arius in the 4th century, an Alexandrian priest that taught the doctrine that only the Father was God, and that the Son had been created by the Father. Arians rejected the term "homoousios" (consubstantial) as a term describing the Father and Son, viewing such term as compromising the uniqueness and primacy of God,[19] and accused it of dividing the indivisible unit of the divine essence.[20] Unitarians trace their history back to the Apostolic Age, arguing, as do Trinitarians and Binitarians, that their Christology most closely reflects that of the early Christian community and Church Fathers.[21]

Binitarianism is the view within Christianity that there were originally two beings in the Godhead the Father and the Word that became the Son (Jesus the Christ).[citation needed] Binitarians normally believe that God is a family, currently consisting of the Father and the Son[citation needed]. Some binitarians[who?] believe that others will ultimately be born into that divine family. Hence, binitarians are nontrinitarian, but they are also not unitarian. Binitarians, like most unitarians and trinitarians, claim their views were held by the original New Testament Church. Unlike most unitarians and trinitarians who tend to identify themselves by those terms, binitarians normally do not refer to their belief in the duality of the Godhead, with the Son subordinate to the Father; they simply teach the Godhead in a manner that has been termed as binitarianism.

The word "binitarian" is typically used by scholars and theologians as a contrast to a trinitarian theology: a theology of "two" in God rather than a theology of "three", and although some critics[who?] prefer to use the term ditheist or dualist instead of binitarian, those terms suggests that God is not one, yet binitarians believe that God is one family. It is accurate to offer the judgment that most commonly when someone speaks of a Christian "binitarian" theology the "two" in God are the Father and the Son... A substantial amount of recent scholarship has been devoted to exploring the implications of the fact that Jesus was worshipped by those first Jewish Christians, since in Judaism "worship" was limited to the worship of God" (Barnes M. Early Christian Binitarianism: the Father and the Holy Spirit. Early Christian Binitarianism - as read at NAPS 2001). Much of this recent scholarship has been the result of the translations of the Nag Hammadi and other ancient manuscripts that were not available when older scholarly texts (such as Wilhelm Bousset's Kyrios Christos, 1913) were written.

In the Mormonism represented by most of Mormon communities, including The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints, "God" means Elohim (the Father), whereas "Godhead" means a council of three distinct entities; Elohim, Jehovah (the Son, or Jesus), and the Holy Spirit. The Father and Son have perfected, material bodies, while the Holy Spirit is a spirit and does not have a body. This conception differs from the traditional Christian Trinity; in Mormonism, the three persons are considered to be physically separate beings, or personages, but indistinguishable in will and purpose.[22] As such, the term "Godhead" differs from how it is used in traditional Christianity. This description of God represents the orthodoxy of The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints (LDS Church), established early in the 19th century. However, the Mormon concept of God has expanded since the faith's founding in the late 1820s.[citation needed]

Islam's most fundamental concept is a strict monotheism called tawd. God is described in the Surat al-Ikhlas as: "Say: He is God, the One; God, the Eternal, the Absolute; He begot no one, nor is He begotten; Nor is there to Him equivalent anyone."[23][24] Muslims deny the Christian doctrine of the Trinity and divinity of Jesus, comparing it to polytheism. In Islam, God is beyond all comprehension or equal and does not resemble any of his creations in any way. Thus, Muslims are not iconodules and are not expected to visualize God. The message of God is carried by angels to 124,000 messengers starting with Adam and concluding with Mohammad. God is described and referred in the Quran by certain names or attributes, the most common being Al-Rahman, meaning "Most Compassionate" and Al-Rahim, meaning "Most Merciful" (see Names of God in Islam).[25]

Muslims believe that creation of everything in the universe is brought into being by God's sheer command Be and so it is.[26][27] and that the purpose of existence is to please God, both by worship and by good deeds.[28][29] There are no intermediaries, such as clergy, to contact God: He is nearer to his creation than the jugular vein[30]

Allh (Arabic: Allh), without plural or gender is the divine name of the lord mentioned in the Quran, while "ilh" (Arabic: ellh) is the term used for a deity or a god in general.[31][32][33]

The Bah Faith believes in a single, imperishable God, the creator of all things, including all the creatures and forces in the universe.[34] In Bah belief, God is beyond space and time but is also described as "a personal God, unknowable, inaccessible, the source of all Revelation, eternal, omniscient, omnipresent and almighty."[35] Though inaccessible directly, God is nevertheless seen as conscious of creation, possessing a mind, will and purpose. Bahs believe that God expresses this will at all times and in many ways, including Manifestations, a series of divine "messengers" or "educators".[36] In expressing God's intent, these manifestations are seen to establish religion in the world. Bah teachings state that God is too great for humans to fully comprehend, nor to create a complete and accurate image.[37] Bah'u'llh often refers to God by titles, such as the "All-Powerful" or the "All-Loving".

Some Jewish, Christian and Muslim Medieval philosophers, including Moses Maimonides and Pseudo-Dionysius, as well as many sages of other religions, developed what is termed as apophatic theology or the Via Negativa, the idea that one cannot posit attributes to God and can only discuss what God is not. For example, we cannot say that God "exists" in the usual sense of the term, because that term is human defined and God's qualities such as existence may not be accurately characterized by it. What we can safely say is that it cannot be proven empirically or otherwise that God is existent, therefore God is not non-existent. Likewise God's "wisdom" is of a fundamentally different kind from limited human perception. So we cannot use the word "wise" to describe God, because this implies God is wise in the way we usually describe humans being wise. However we can safely say that God is not ignorant. We should not say that God is One, because we may not truly understand Gods nature, but we can state that there is no multiplicity in God's being. In the Quran, it is stated that God possess no quality of God's creation, which means that there cannot be a He or She used to describe God. To say that God is angered or feels any kind of emotion is a misunderstanding. Emotion is in common to all humans; it is what gives them their essence, though to feel love, anger, jealousy, or happiness clouds and misguides our judgment and may lead us to make a weak decision or do something unfair. Therefore, One who sees all and can feel all does not need any emotion to make a decision. God is beyond emotion and other human biases.

The reason that this theology was developed was because it was felt that ascribing positive characteristics to God would imply that God could be accurately described with terms that were used to describe human qualities and perceptions. As humans cannot truly comprehend what kind of wisdom an eternal transcendent being might have, or what infinity might be like, we cannot in fact know or characterize his true nature. It is beyond human ability and would only mislead people. The proponents of this theory often experienced meditation, which they viewed as the only effective way of having a personal relationship with God. It involved trying to reach beyond the words commonly used to describe him and his more ineffable characteristics, and to comprehend in a mystical manner the truths about him which could not be achieved through religious language. Thus many sages and saints of both monotheistic and other traditions described mystical trances, or raptures and stated they were unable to describe God or their visions fully.[citation needed]

Jainism does not support belief in a creator deity. According to Jain doctrine, the universe and its constituentssoul, matter, space, time, and principles of motionhave always existed. All the constituents and actions are governed by universal natural laws. It is not possible to create matter out of nothing and hence the sum total of matter in the universe remains the same (similar to law of conservation of mass). Jain text claims that the universe consists of Jiva (life force or souls) and Ajiva (lifeless objects). Similarly, the soul of each living being is unique and uncreated and has existed since beginningless time.[38]

The Jain theory of causation holds that a cause and its effect are always identical in nature and hence a conscious and immaterial entity like God cannot create a material entity like the universe. Furthermore, according to the Jain concept of divinity, any soul who destroys its karmas and desires, achieves liberation/Nirvana. A soul who destroys all its passions and desires has no desire to interfere in the working of the universe. Moral rewards and sufferings are not the work of a divine being, but a result of an innate moral order in the cosmos; a self-regulating mechanism whereby the individual reaps the fruits of his own actions through the workings of the karmas.

Through the ages, Jain philosophers have adamantly rejected and opposed the concept of creator and omnipotent God. This has resulted in Jainism being labeled as nastika darsana (atheist philosophy) by rival religious philosophies. The theme of non-creationism and absence of omnipotent God and divine grace runs strongly in all the philosophical dimensions of Jainism, including its cosmology, concepts of karma and moksa and its moral code of conduct. Jainism asserts a religious and virtuous life is possible without the idea of a creator god.[39]

The non-adherence[40] to the notion of a supreme God or a prime mover is seen as a key distinction between Buddhism and other religious views. In Buddhism, the sole aim of the spiritual practice is the complete alleviation of distress (dukkha) in samsara,[41][42] called nirvana. The Buddha neither denies nor accepts a creator,[43] denies endorsing any views on creation[44] and states that questions on the origin of the world are worthless.[45][46] Some teachers instruct students beginning Buddhist meditation that the notion of divinity is not incompatible with Buddhism,[47] but dogmatic beliefs in a supreme personal creator are considered a hindrance to the attainment of nirvana,[48] the highest goal of Buddhist practice.[49]

Despite this apparent non-theism, Buddhists consider veneration of the Noble Ones[50] very important[51] although the two main schools of Buddhism differ mildly in their reverential attitudes. While Theravada Buddhists view the Buddha as a human being who attained nirvana or arahanthood through human efforts,[52] Mahayana Buddhists consider him an embodiment of the cosmic dharmakaya (a notion of transcendent divinity), who was born for the benefit of others and not merely a human being.[53] In addition, some Mahayana Buddhists worship their chief Bodhisattva, Avalokiteshvara[54] and hope to embody him.[55]

Buddhists accept the existence of beings known as devas in higher realms, but they, like humans, are said to be suffering in samsara,[56] and not necessarily wiser than us. In fact, the Buddha is often portrayed as a teacher of the gods,[57] and superior to them.[58] Despite this, there are believed to be enlightened devas on the path of Buddhahood.

In Buddhism, the idea of the metaphysical absolute is deconstructed in the same way as of the idea of an enduring "self", but it is not necessarily denied. Reality is considered as dynamic, interactive and non-substantial, which implies rejection of brahman or of a divine substratum. A cosmic principle can be embodied in concepts such as the dharmakaya. Though there is a primordial Buddha (or, in Vajrayana, the Adi-Buddha, a representation of immanent enlightenment in nature), its representation as a creator is a symbol of the presence of a universal cyclical creation and dissolution of the cosmos and not of an actual personal being. An intelligent, metaphysical underlying basis, however, is not ruled out by Buddhism, although Buddhists are generally very careful to distinguish this idea from that of an independent creator God.[59]

In Hinduism, the concept of god is complex and depends on the particular tradition. The concept spans conceptions from absolute monism to henotheism, monotheism and polytheism. In the Vedic period monotheistic god concept culminated in the semi-abstract semi-personified form of creative soul dwelling in all god such as Vishvakarman, Purusha, and Prajapathy. In the majority of Vaishnavism traditions, he is Vishnu, and the text identifies this being as Krishna, sometimes referred as svayam bhagavan. The term isvara - from the root is, to have extraordinary power. Some traditional sankhya systems contrast purusha (devine, or souls) to prakriti (nature or energy), however the term for sovereign god, ishvara is mentioned six times in the Atharva Veda, and is central to many traditions.[60] As per Advaita Vedanta school of Hindu philosophy the notion of Brahman (the highest Universal Principle) is akin to that of god; except that unlike most other philosophies Advaita likens Brahman to atman (the true Self of an individual). For Sindhi Hindus, who are deeply influenced by Sikhism, God is seen as the omnipotent cultivation of all Hindu gods and goddesses.[clarification needed] In short, the soul paramatma of all gods and goddesses are the omnipresent Brahman and are enlightened beings.

Brahman is the eternal, unchanging, infinite, immanent, and transcendent reality which is the divine ground of all matter, energy, time, space, being and everything beyond in this Universe.[61][62] The nature of Brahman is described as transpersonal, personal and impersonal by different philosophical schools. The word Brahman is derived from the verb brh (Sanskrit: to grow), and connotes greatness and infinity.

Brahman is talked of at two levels (apara and para). He is the fountainhead of all concepts but he himself cannot be conceived. He is the universal conceiver, universal concept and all the means of concept. Apara-Brahman is the same Para Brahma but for human understanding thought of as universal mind cum universal intellect from which all human beings derive an iota as their mind, intellect etc.[citation needed]

Ishvara is a philosophical concept in Hinduism, meaning controller or the Supreme controller (i.e. God) in a monotheistic or the Supreme Being or as an Ishta-deva of monistic thought. Ishvara is a transcendent and immanent entity best described in the last chapter of the Shukla Yajur Veda Samhita, known as the Ishavasya Upanishad. It states "ishavasyam idam sarvam" which means whatever there is in this world is covered and filled with Ishvara. Ishvara not only creates the world, but then also enters into everything there is. In Saivite traditions, the term is used as part of the compound "Maheshvara" ("great lord") later as a name for Siva.

Lord Shiva is more often considered as first Hindu God. Mahadeva literally means "Highest of all god". Shiva is also known as Maheshvar, the great Lord, Mahadeva, the great God, Shambhu, Hara, Pinakadhrik, bearer of the axe and Mrityunjaya, conqueror of death. He is the spouse of Shakti, the goddess. He also is represented by Mahakala and Bhairava, the terrible, as well as many other forms including Rudra. Shiva is often pictured holding the damaru, an hour-glass shape drum, shown below with his trishula. His usual mantra is om namah shivaya.[63]

This must not be confused with the numerous devas. Deva may be roughly translated into English as deity, demigod or angel, and can describe any celestial being or thing that is of high excellence and thus is venerable. The word is cognate to Latin deus for "god". The misconception of 330 million devas is commonly objected to by Hindu scholars. The description of 33 koti (10 million, crore in Hindi) devas is a misunderstanding. The word koti in Sanskrit translates to 'type' and not '10 million'. So the actual translation is 33 types and not 330 million devas. Ishvara as a personal form of God is worshiped and not the 33 devas. The concept of 33 devas is perhaps related to the geometry of the universe.

Bhagavan literally means "possessing fortune, blessed, prosperous" (from the noun bhaga, meaning "fortune, wealth", cognate to Slavic bog "god"), and hence "illustrious, divine, venerable, holy", etc. In some traditions of Hinduism it is used to indicate the Supreme Being or Absolute Truth, but with specific reference to that Supreme Being as possessing a personality (a personal God).[citation needed] This personal feature indicated in Bhagavan differentiates its usage from other similar terms such as Brahman, the "Supreme Spirit" or "spirit", and thus, in this usage, Bhagavan is in many ways analogous to the general Christian and Islamic conception of God.

The Western Wisdom Teachings present the conception of The Absolute (unmanifested and unlimited "Boundless Being" or "Root of Existence", beyond the whole universe and beyond comprehension) from whom proceeds the Supreme Being at the dawn of manifestation: The One, the "Great Architect of the Universe". From the threefold Supreme Being proceed the "seven Great Logoi" who contain within themselves all the great hierarchies that differentiate more and more as they diffuse through the six lower Cosmic Planes. In the Highest World of the seventh (lowest) Cosmic Plane dwells the god of the solar systems in the universe. These great beings are also threefold in manifestation, like the Supreme Being; their three aspects are Will, Wisdom and Activity.

According these Rosicrucian teachings, in the beginning of a Day of Manifestation a certain collective Great Being, God, limits himself to a certain portion of space, in which he elects to create a solar system for the evolution of added self-consciousness. In God there are contained hosts of glorious hierarchies and lesser beings of every grade of intelligence and stage of consciousness, from omniscience to an unconsciousness deeper than that of the deepest trance condition.

During the current period of manifestation, these various grades of beings are working to acquire more experience than they possessed at the beginning of this period of existence. Those who, in previous manifestations, have attained to the highest degree of development work on those who have not yet evolved any consciousness. In the Solar system, God's Habitation, there are seven Worlds differentiated by God, within Himself, one after another. Mankind's evolutionary scheme is slowly carried through five of these Worlds in seven great Periods of manifestation, during which the evolving virgin spirit becomes first human and, then, a God.

Concepts about deity are diverse among UUs. Some have no belief in any gods (atheism); others believe in many gods (polytheism). Some believe the question of the existence of any god is most likely unascertainable or unknowable (agnosticism). Some believe God is a metaphor for a transcendent reality. Some believe in a female god (goddess), a passive god (Deism), an Abrahamic god, or a god manifested in nature or the universe (pantheism). Many UUs reject the idea of deities and instead speak of the "spirit of life" that binds all life on earth. UUs support each person's search for truth and meaning in concepts of spirituality. Historically, unitarianism and universalism were denominations within Christianity. Unitarianism referred to a belief about the nature of Jesus Christ that affirmed God as a singular entity and rejected the doctrine of the Trinity. Universalism referred to a theological belief that all persons will be reconciled to God because of divine love and mercy (Universal Salvation).[64]

The term for God in Sikhism is Waheguru. Guru Nanak describes God as nirankar (from the Sanskrit nirkr, meaning "formless"), akal (meaning "eternal") and alakh (from the Sanskrit alakya, meaning "invisible" or "unobserved"). Sikhism's principal scripture, the Guru Granth Sahib, starts with the figure "1", signifying the unity of God. Nanak's interpretation of God is that of a single, personal and transcendental creator with whom the devotee must develop a most intimate faith and relationship to achieve salvation. Sikhism advocates the belief in one god who is omnipresent (sarav vi'pak), whose qualities are infinite and who is without gender, a nature represented (especially in the Guru Granth Sahib) by the term Ek Onkar.

Nanak further emphasizes that a full understanding of God is beyond human beings, but that God is also not wholly unknowable. God is considered omnipresent in all creation and visible everywhere to the spiritually awakened. Nanak stresses that God must be seen by human beings from "the inward eye" or "heart" and that meditation must take place inwardly to achieve this enlightenment progressively; its rigorous application is what enables communication between God and human beings.

Sikhs believe in a single god that has existed from the beginning of time and will survive forever. God is genderless, fearless, formless, immutable, ineffable, self-sufficient, omnipotent and not subject to the cycle of birth and death.

God in Sikhism is depicted in three distinct aspects: God as deity; God in relation to creation; and God in relation to man. During a discourse with siddhas (wandering Hindu adepts), Nanak is asked where "the Transcendent God" was before creation. He replies: "To think of the Transcendent Lord in that state is to enter the realm of wonder. Even at that stage of sunn, he permeated all that void" (GG, 940).

According to Brahma Kumaris, God is the incorporeal soul with the maximum degree of spiritual qualities such as peace and love.[65][66]

Some comparatively new belief systems and books portray God as extraterrestrial life. Many of these theories hold that intelligent beings from another world have been visiting Earth for many thousands of years and have influenced the development of our religions. Some of these books posit that prophets or messiahs were sent to the human race in order to teach morality and encourage the development of civilization (see, for example, Rael and Zecharia Sitchin).

The spiritual teacher Meher Baba described God as infinite love: "God is not understood in His essence until He is also understood as Infinite Love. Divine Love is unlimited in essence and expression, because it is experienced by the soul through the soul itself. The sojourn of the soul is a thrilling divine romance in which the lover, who in the beginning is conscious of nothing but emptiness, frustration, superficiality and the gnawing chains of bondage, gradually attains an increasingly fuller and freer expression of love and ultimately disappears and merges in the Divine Beloved to realize the unity of the Lover and the Beloved in the supreme and eternal fact of God as Infinite Love."[67]

Anton LaVey, founder of the Church of Satan, espoused the view that "god" is a creation of man, rather than man being a creation of "god". In his book, The Satanic Bible, the Satanist's view of god is described as the Satanist's true "self"a projection of his or her own personalitynot an external deity. Satan is used as a representation of personal liberty and individualism. LaVey discusses this extensively in The Book of Lucifer, explaining that the gods worshipped by other religions are also projections of man's true self. He argues that man's unwillingness to accept his own ego has caused him to externalize these gods so as to avoid the feeling of narcissism that would accompany self-worship.

"If man insists on externalizing his true self in the form of "God," then why fear his true self, in fearing "God,"why praise his true self in praising "God,"why remain externalized from "God" in order to engage in ritual and religious ceremony in his name?Man needs ritual and dogma, but no law states that an externalized god is necessary in order to engage in ritual and ceremony performed in a god's name! Could it be that when he closes the gap between himself and his "God" he sees the demon of pride creeping forththat very embodiment of Lucifer appearing in his midst?"

Process theology is a school of thought influenced by the metaphysical process philosophy of Alfred North Whitehead (18611947), while open theism is a similar theological movement that began in the 1990s.

In both views, God is not omnipotent in the classical sense of a coercive being. Reality is not made up of material substances that endure through time, but serially-ordered events, which are experiential in nature. The universe is characterized by process and change carried out by the agents of free will. Self-determination characterizes everything in the universe, not just human beings. God and creatures co-create. God cannot force anything to happen, but rather only influence the exercise of this universal free will by offering possibilities. Process theology is compatible with panentheism, the concept that God contains the universe (pantheism) but also transcends it. God as the ultimate logician - God may be defined as the only entity, by definition, possessing the ability to reduce an infinite number of logical equations having an infinite number of variables and an infinite number of states to minimum form instantaneously.

A posthuman God is a hypothetical future entity descended from or created by humans, but possessing capabilities so radically exceeding those of present humans as to appear godlike. One common variation of this idea is the belief or aspiration that humans will create a God entity emerging from an artificial intelligence. Another variant is that humanity itself will evolve into a posthuman God.

The concept of a posthuman god has become common in science fiction. Science fiction author Arthur C. Clarke said in an interview, "It may be that our role on this planet is not to worship God, but to create him." Clarke's friend and colleague, the late Isaac Asimov, postulated in his story "The Last Question" a merger between humanity and machine intelligence that ultimately produces a deity capable of reversing entropy and subsequently initiates a new Creation trillions of years from the present era when the Universe is in the last stage of heat death. In Frank Herbert's science-fiction series Dune, a messianic figure is created after thousands of years of controlled breeding. The Culture series, by Iain M. Banks, represents a blend in which a transhuman society is guarded by godlike machine intelligences. A stronger example is posited in the novel Singularity Sky by Charles Stross, in which a future artificial intelligence is capable of changing events even in its own past, and takes strong measures to prevent any other entity from taking advantage of similar capabilities. Another example appears in the popular online novella The Metamorphosis of Prime Intellect in which an advanced artificial intelligence uses its own advanced quantum brain to resolve discrepancies in physics theories and develop a unified field theory which gives it absolute control over reality, in a take on philosophical digitalism.

The philosopher Michel Henry defines God from a phenomenological point of view. He says: "God is Life, he is the essence of Life, or, if we prefer, the essence of Life is God. Saying this we already know what is God the father the almighty, creator of heaven and earth, we know it not by the effect of a learning or of some knowledge, we dont know it by the thought, on the background of the truth of the world; we know it and we can know it only in and by the Life itself. We can know it only in God."[72]

This Life is not biological life defined by objective and exterior properties, nor an abstract and empty philosophical concept, but the absolute phenomenological life, a radically immanent life that possesses in it the power of showing itself in itself without distance, a life that reveals permanently itself.

Conceptions of God - Wikipedia

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AWAY: The Survival Series Glides Onto PC and Console Today – GLYFE Nation

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Story-based sugar glider adventure AWAY: The Survival Series is out now on PC and PlayStation 4|5.

Breaking Walls is proud to announce that its nature documentary-inspired narrative adventure about the life of a sugar glider, AWAY: The Survival Series, is available now on PC, PlayStation 4, and PlayStation 5 for $29.99. A physical edition will go on sale on October 1st in Europe and October 5th, 2021 in the USA through Perp Games.

AWAY: The Survival Series lets you star in your own personal nature documentary as you glide through the forest, sneak past predators, and hunt down your prey, all while a narrator describes your every move. Set in a distant future where nature has reclaimed the planet, AWAY is a narrative-driven survival adventure where you embody a tiny sugar glider embarking on a quest to save your family. Soar across misty chasms, leap from tree to tree, and climb to the top of the forest canopy as you journey across the posthuman wilderness!

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AWAY: The Survival Series Glides Onto PC and Console Today - GLYFE Nation

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Anthropogenic transitions from forested to human-dominated landscapes in southern Macaronesia – pnas.org

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Significance

Assessing the ecological consequences of human settlement can help preserve island forests and their ecosystem services, but to understand the legacy of these interactions requires datasets that span centuries. We used paleoecological data (e.g. fossil pollen) to show that prehuman Holocene forests were dynamic in response to climatic changes, and that human colonization led to increased incidence of fire, soil erosion, and grazing impacts in the Canary Islands and Cabo Verde. Humans have driven compositional convergence within the thermophilous woodland zone of Cabo Verde but in the Canary Islands relictual fragments of laurel forests persist. Our long-term view highlights the legacy of past human impacts and which tree species to restore and conserve in thermophilous woodlands within these biodiversity hotspots.

The extinction of iconic species such as the dodo and the deforestation of Easter Island are emblematic of the transformative impact of human colonization of many oceanic islands, especially those in the tropics and subtropics. Yet, the interaction of prehistoric and colonial-era colonists with the forests and forest resources they encountered can be complex, varies between islands, and remains poorly understood. Long-term ecological records (e.g., fossil pollen) provide the means to understand these human impacts in relation to natural change and variability pre- and postcolonization. Here we analyze paleoecological archives in forested landscapes of the Canary Islands and Cabo Verde, first colonized approximately 2,400 to 2,000 and 490 y ago, respectively. We demonstrate sensitivity to regional climate change prior to human colonization, followed by divergent but gradual impacts of early human settlement. These contrast with more rapid transformation in the colonial era, associated with significant increases in anthropogenic pressures. In the Canary Islands, at least two native tree taxa became extinct and lowland thermophilous woodlands were largely converted to agricultural land, yet relictual subtropical laurel forests persisted with limited incursion of nonnative species. In Cabo Verde, in contrast, thermophilous woodlands were depleted and substituted by open landscapes and introduced woodlands. Differences between these two archipelagos reflect the changing cultural practices and societal interactions with forests and illustrate the importance of long-term data series in understanding the human footprint on island ecosystems, information that will be critically important for current and future forest restoration and conservation management practices in these two biodiversity hotspots.

Human colonization of virtually the entirety of the tropics and subtropics was accomplished by the start of the Holocene (1, 2). However, remote oceanic islands provide the exceptions to this generalization, many having been first colonized in late prehistoric times (approximately in the last 3,000 y) or in the colonial era (post-1400 CE) (2). Humans have since transformed these systems, via habitat conversion, resource exploitation, hunting, and the introduction of nonnative species. Cases such as Easter Island exemplify a complete loss of preexisting forest cover (3), but often ecological cascades have had profound impacts within persisting forest communities. The loss of the dodo on Mauritius (4) and most of the land birds of Guam (5) (following the introduction of the brown tree snake) are emblematic. Moreover, the response of island forests to anthropogenic drivers varies greatly among islands: whereas forested areas on Hawaii contain many nonnative species (6), Canarian laurel forests are composed almost entirely of native species of trees and shrubs (7). Understanding the legacy of human impacts on these remote oceanic islands, and particularly on their forests, requires a combination of paleoecological and archaeological studies over timelines that incorporate both pre- and posthuman dynamics (8).

For prehistoric settlers, island forests provided vital ecosystem services such as food (fruits, animal prey), medicines, shelter, tools, timber, wood for hearths, and regulatory services, including water flow regulation and soil erosion protection. The forested landscapes also provided growing conditions suitable for agricultural conversion. While prehistoric island societies typically interacted and traded with other islands or regions, most land-use decisions were made locally (8, 9). Island forests were subjected to clearance by fire (9), increasing agricultural activities, accelerated soil erosion (10), and the introduction of species such as goats, pigs, and rats (11), which are often implicated in extinctions of native vertebrates (11, 12). Colonial-era first colonists, in contrast, frequently made land-use decisions focused on colonial trading networks, leading to aggressive, rapid acts of deforestation and land-use change, and generally involving accelerated rates of nonnative species introduction (13).

Here we present comparative paleoecological analyses of two oceanic archipelagos from the biogeographical region of Macaronesia (which comprises Cabo Verde, Canaries, Selvagens, Madeira, and Azores), namely 1) Cabo Verde, settled by the Portuguese in 1462 CE and the first tropical European colony, and 2) the subtropical Canary Islands, first settled by people from North Africa around 2,400 to 2,000 cal BP (14) and subsequently conquered by the Castilians over the course of the 15th century. In the early colonial period, both archipelagos were inextricably connected to the development and spread of agricultural, economic, and societal practices in the colonialization of the New World tropics (13) (SI Appendix). They thus provide ideal model systems (15, 16) through which to understand how humans have impacted forested landscapes through diverse stages of technological and cultural development (8, 1719).

Our analyses are based on five sequences from natural sediment deposits (volcanic calderas), representing two major ecosystem types (Fig. 1): first, thermophilous woodlands, thought to have originally spanned 100 to 600 meters above sea level (masl) in the Canaries and found from 500 to 1,500 masl in Cabo Verde, and second, laurel forest, which occurs from 500 to 600 m to 1,000 to 1,200 m in the Canary Islands but is absent from Cabo Verde (Fig. 2). To provide a comparative synthesis of the natural dynamics of these forested landscapes over time and how humans have changed them, we use multivariate analyses (ordination) to integrate paleoecological datasets of forest composition (fossil pollen), fire regimes (charcoal), erosion (sediment elemental composition and median grain size), soil organic content (loss on ignition), and herbivore introductions (spores of coprophilous fungi). Prior to human colonization, forest variability within the last 10 ka showed evidence of the ecosystems responding to regional climate change, whereas after human colonization there is evidence for increased incidence of fire, soil erosion, and the arrival of domesticated animals (goats, pigs). These latter changes are associated with a reduction in the forest cover in both archipelagos and compositional convergence within the thermophilous woodland zone of the Cabo Verde islands.

Maps of the Cabo Verde and the Canary Islands and photographs and elevation of the studied volcanic calderas. We use Anthropocene in an informal sense to indicate the period since human colonization, which differs island to island. (Lower) Chronological axes showing geological, climatic, and human milestones of the last 20 My in southern Macaronesia. See SI Appendix, Supplementary Text for references.

Distribution of woodland vegetation types in southern Macaronesia. (Left) Schematic elevational zonation. (Right) Remaining distribution of laurel forest and thermophilous woodlands in the Canary Islands based on ref. 43 and of introduced woodland in Cabo Verde based on ref. 44.

Paleoecological analyses of sediment deposits from five volcanic calderas from: La Gomera, Gran Canaria (Canary Islands), Santo Anto, So Nicolau, and Brava (Cabo Verde), within the past 10 ka reveal distinct differences in pre- and posthuman colonization landscape dynamics. Proxies for erosion, burning, and grazing show particularly prominent changes.

Sediment geochemistry for Laguna Grande (La Gomera, 1,250 masl) shows consistent values of SiO2, Fe2O3, Al2O3, and TiO2 from the base of the core (approximately 9,600 cal BP, [calibrated years before present], 95% CI [confidence interval], 10,900 to 8,700 cal BP; SI Appendix, Fig. S1), then slight declines coincident with the regional drying trend of the end of the African humid period, approximately 5,500 cal BP (SI Appendix, Fig. S2) until human colonization of the archipelago. Subsequently, values of Al2O3 and TiO2 decline further, yet SiO2 and Al2O3 values abruptly rise approximately 600 cal BP before declining again toward the present (SI Appendix, Fig. S2). A peak in Sporormiella coprophilous spores also occurs approximately 600 cal BP (Fig. 3). Macrocharcoal concentrations reach maximum values approximately 1,296 cal BP (95% CI 1,926 to 940 cal BP, Fig. 3 and SI Appendix, Fig. S3). At Valleseco (Gran Canaria, 870 masl), sediments show stable Fe2O3, Al2O3, and TiO2 content from 5,000 to 2,500 cal BP, and enrichment in SiO2 coinciding with peaks in macrocharcoal 2,260 cal BP (95% CI 2,517 to 2,063 cal BP) followed by the highest concentrations of Sporormiella spores in the record, approximately 2,031 cal BP (95% CI 2,364 to 1,951 cal BP). Due to soil removal for agricultural purposes the record has a top date of approximately 1,208 cal BP.

Longitudinal data series for key environmental proxies (normalized values 0 to 1) from five cores from the Canary Islands (Left) and Cabo Verde islands (Right). SiO2 (%) content and median grain size (MGS, in micrograms) are indicators of rates of erosion within the catchment. Charcoal refers to macrocharcoal concentration (number of fragments per cubic centimeter), a proxy for local fires; Sporormiella (% over pollen sum) refers to spores of these coprophilous fungi, which are indicators of the presence of herbivores. Loss on ignition (%) and organic matter content (%) are indicators of soil organic matter. Vertical bands indicate the best estimates of the timing of Prehistoric (green) and European colonial (gray) settlement (14, 19).

Sites recording pollen from thermophilous woodland taxa are located in Cova Galinha (Brava, 810 masl), Calderinha (So Nicolau, 1,000 masl), and Cova de Pal (Santo Anto, 1,150 masl). The Brava site shows episodes of increased Al and Si between 8,000 and 7,000 cal BP, and increases in median grain size approximately 4,000 cal BP (95% CI 4,326 to 3,838 cal BP; Fig. 3 and SI Appendix, Fig. S2). Increased charcoal concentrations and peaks in Sporormiella spores occurred after approximately 400 cal BP (95% CI 613 to 207 cal BP; Fig. 3). The So Nicolau site records increased median grain sizes and Ti % between 6,000 and 5,000 cal BP (SI Appendix, Fig. S2), and these erosion indicators steadily increased after 468 cal BP (95% CI 634 to 343 cal BP). The charcoal increases after approximately 600 cal BP in this site and is abundant until the present (Fig. 3). On Santo Anto the sediments show steady increases in Si, Al, Fe%, and median grain size between approximately 470 cal BP (95% CI 640 to 320 cal BP) and the present, also coinciding with increased macrocharcoal concentrations and peaks of coprophilous fungal spores (Fig. 3 and SI Appendix, Fig. S3).

Detrended correspondence analysis (DCA) of the fossil pollen records of the five sites revealed a gradient in the first axis from La Gomera laurel forest (right) to recent samples from the Cabo Verde thermophilous zone (left), with the second axis describing a gradient from prehuman colonization samples from Brava (low) to recent Gran Canaria samples (high) (Fig. 4A). In compositional terms, taxa from Canarian laurel forests such as Lauraceae, Morella, and Ericaceae have positive scores within DCA axis-1, while introduced taxa in Cabo Verde plot with negative scores (e.g., Eucalyptus, Opuntia, Persea americana, Zea mays; SI Appendix, Fig. S4). DCA axis-2 positive values feature taxa typical for Canarian open landscapes (Kleinia, Fabaceae, Rumex) and thermophilous woodland taxa (Rhamnaceae, Juniperus), while negative scores correspond to taxa typical of humid environments (Salix, Juncaceae) and native taxa from Cabo Verdean thermophilous woodlands (Dracaena draco, Urticaceae, Lotus) (SI Appendix, Fig. S4). The two Canarian data series show generally increasing values in axis-2 over time, whereas the Cabo Verde series converge within the Left quadrant of the DCA plot (low values in both axes).

Ordination plots of fossil pollen data from southern Macaronesia. Colored polygons differentiate samples from different islands. Arrows show the main trend of change from older to younger samples. (A) DCA. Stars show samples dated after human settlement; other symbols show prehuman settlement. (B) CCA for three Cabo Verde islands (Left) and two Canarian islands (Right). CCA shows associations between pollen percentages and four proxies of environmental change (thin blue arrows). See SI Appendix, Table S1 for correlation scores with axes 1 and 2. Coring site elevations are as per Fig. 1. Proxies are as per Fig. 3 and Materials and Methods.

Canonical correspondence analysis (CCA) for each archipelago separately permits testing of the associations between proxies of vegetation change and environmental change (Fig. 4B and SI Appendix, Table S1). For the Canary Islands, CCA axis-1 is negatively correlated with herbivores and soil organic matter and positively correlated with erosion variables, while axis-2 is negatively correlated with local fires. Samples dated between 2,500 cal BP and the present representing the thermophilous woodland of Gran Canaria, plot with fire and erosion. Samples dated between 800 cal BP and the present in the laurel forest of La Gomera have higher organic matter content (loss on ignition [LOI]) and herbivore presence (Fig. 4B and SI Appendix, Table S1). Conversely, the Cabo Verde plot shows correlation between CCA axis-1 and soil organic matter and herbivores, and axis-2 with erosion, and samples dated between 500 cal BP and the present are associated with herbivore presence, erosion, and local fires. Finally, samples from prehuman periods from So Nicolau and Santo Anto are associated with higher levels of organic matter (Fig. 4B and SI Appendix, Table S1).

The Canarian laurel forests and Canarian/Cabo Verdean thermophilous woodlands were compositionally dynamic before human arrival. Changing environmental conditions are associated with shifts in species abundance and probably in elevational distribution. For example, the environmental changes consequent upon the shift in the monsoonal circulation at the end of the African Humid Period (approximately 5,500 cal BP) (20, 21), illustrate the ecological effects of relatively abrupt regional change in Macaronesian forests. During this humid period, the continuous 10,000-y record of Laguna Grande (La Gomera) geochemical values are generally stable, indicating a lack of abrupt erosion events, but pollen data show changes in composition in response to the advent of drier climatic conditions (22). Around 5,500 y ago, decreases in the arboreal pollen from hygrophilous species such as the palm Phoenix canariensis and the willow Salix canariensis are evident, while pollen from the more drought tolerant and xerophilous Morella and Erica, taxa of woody heath, increases. These taxa characterize a landscape that has endured until the present day (22). The change also coincides with an acceleration in sediment accumulation rate and the occurrence of local fires, shown by an increase in macrocharcoal concentrations. Similarly, at Laguna de Valleseco (Gran Canaria) thermophilous woodland (Juniperus and P. canariensis) was dominant at approximately 4,500 cal BP (23). Subsequently, charcoal concentrations increased between approximately 4,000 and 3,000 cal BP, indicating increased fire incidence prior to human colonization. This shift in fire regime, likely due to increasing aridity, drove a decline in thermophilous elements and increases in herbaceous taxa.

Before human arrival in Cabo Verde 560 y ago, pollen data from So Nicolau indicate a landscape dominated by woodlands on the upper slopes of Monte Gordo, the highest peak of the island (1,200 masl). This woodland included Ficus (fig) trees, D. draco (dragon tree), and the shrub Euphorbia tuckeyana, with occasional acacia trees (Faidherbia albida) (24). These thermophilous woodlands were likely restricted to the highlands (25). In contrast, in Cova de Pal (Santo Anto), pollen data suggest a more open landscape, with tree species represented by Ficus, F. albida, Dichrostachys cinerea, and Sapotaceae (genus Sideroxylon). This is similar to Cova Galinha (Brava), which records the presence of the shrub Dodonaea viscosa, plus the trees Ficus and D. draco (26, 27). During the period before human arrival in Cabo Verde, soil geochemistry indicates episodes of sediment erosion related to intense precipitation episodes during the African humid period on So Nicolau (approximately 6,000 to 5,000 cal BP) (24) and Brava (approximately 8,000 to 7,000 cal BP) (27). Cabo Verdean prehuman landscapes also experienced fire events, as evidenced by discrete charcoal peaks in Santo Anto approximately 2,000 cal BP, and a prominent charcoal peak in So Nicolau approximately 600 cal BP (95% CI 790 to 480 cal BP) that may be natural or anthropogenic. Prior to human disturbance, natural fires, probably resulting from regionally drier conditions, may have been linked to scrub encroachment (24).

Laurel forests and thermophilous woodlands of the Canary Islands and Cabo Verde have undergone radically different regimes of human impact: two waves of human colonization in the Canary Islands, a precolonial indigenous settlement approximately 2,400 to 2,000 cal BP, followed by Castilian conquest after 1402 CE, and colonial settlement in Cabo Verde after 1460 CE. We found strong evidence of an increase in anthropogenic pressures (soil erosion, local fires, and grazing activity) linked to human arrival in all studied sites. Forests in both archipelagos displayed heterogeneous ecological responses to initial anthropogenic pressures (Fig. 3), as shown by two different trajectories over time within the multivariate analyses (Fig. 4): divergence for the Canarian laurel and thermophilous woodlands due mainly to differences in forest type, and convergence in Cabo Verde due to reduction of woodland cover and plant community homogenization related to the introduction of cultivars and invasive species.

The first use of Canarian forests by aboriginal settlers was probably related to livestock keeping (e.g., pigs), and the gathering of useful species for food (Arbutus, Canarina, Visnea), wood (Apollonias, Juniperus, Olea, Persea, Pinus), or fodder (Chamaecytisus, Teline) (7). These activities appeared to have had little impact on the forest. In La Gomeras laurel forest, for example, approximately 1,800 y ago, local fires and organic matter flux within the basin only showed discrete increases, and the laurel forest composition did not change significantly (Figs. 3 and 4). This may reflect initially small local human populations whose permanent dwellings were at lower elevation (28). Later, at approximately 750 cal BP (95% CI 830 to 700) sharp increases occur in indicators of herbivore presence (coprophilous fungi) probably representing introduced ovicaprids (Capra hircus, Ovis aries) and pigs (Sus domestica) (14) followed by higher organic matter flux. These two environmental variables, which are potentially linked, are identified as the main drivers of recent subtle laurel forest change.

In Gran Canarias thermophilous woodlands, significant local fires and soil erosion are the first evidence for the impact of aboriginal people. Between 2,640 and 2,250 cal BP, peaks in charcoal suggest that the first people colonizing the island used fires for land clearing; at this time there was an associated decline in trees and an expansion of herbaceous plants (23). Shortly after, soil erosion increased, possibly reflecting a change in sediment source and amount associated with the opening of the landscape (Fig. 3). CCA results support this scenario, linking fire and erosion as the most significant environmental drivers in the degradation of the thermophilous forests of Gran Canaria (Fig. 4). The presence of herbivores (evidenced by spores of coprophilous fungi) also increased sharply approximately 2,130 cal BP (95% CI 2,360 to 1,950 cal BP). This finding aligns with another paleoecological record from La Laguna (Tenerife), which shows the rapid decline of at least two tree taxa, oak (Quercus spp.) and hornbeam (Carpinus cf. betulus), most likely reflecting human transformation of the landscape on a large scale through burning and grazing (29). The Castilian arrival in the 15th century brought new impacts on vegetation related to tree-felling technology, wood demand, and the translocation of forest soils for improving agricultural land (19).

Within the thermophilous woodlands and open landscapes of Cabo Verde, the onset of anthropogenic pressures occurred after 1462 CE and the arrival of European Portuguese settlers (Fig. 3). In the studied woodlands and open landscapes, several driversfire, herbivory, and consequent soil erosionwere simultaneously associated with land-use change, as shown in the CCA (Fig. 4). Soil organic matter decreased after human settlement, indicating that soils lost some organic content, likely due to increased soil erosion, which diluted organic inputs into the sediment. Anthropogenic pressures, namely the exploitation of fig trees for wood and of dragon trees for medicine, are historically documented in So Nicolau and Santo Anto (the northern islands) (30); these practices appear to have severely depleted the thermophilous woodlands of Cabo Verde and led to a decrease in extent of woody taxa (26). These compounded human-driven impacts likely played a role in the socioecological crises that affected the archipelago between the 16th and early 20th centuries (31, 32), and consequent land abandonment could have created epicenters for the spread of introduced species. The pollen records show an increasing presence of pollen from introduced species after 500 cal BP, including herbaceous taxa such as Asystasia, Portulaca, Rosaceae, Centaurea, Commelina benghalensis, and taxa currently considered invasive species (or with potential of invasiveness) such as Lantana camara, Agavoidea, and Opuntia, as well as pollen from cultivated species such as Z. mays, Cerealia, Ipomoea batatas, and P. americana (24, 26, 27). L. camara is currently being targeted for action as its substantial and increasing biomass is flammable and generates a high wildfire risk (33). Thus, our analyses suggest that vegetation differences between islands have been diminished due to the impact of colonial activities such as woodland clearance and also by species introductions (Fig. 4). In sum, the legacy of 500 y of land use in Cabo Verde appears to be a trend toward biotic homogenization and the loss of landscape authenticity. If remaining woodland differences are not maintained and protected, then the biodiverse landscapes of the archipelago could decline even further.

Given that 2021 is the launch year of the United Nations International Decade of Restoration and Conservation (https://www.decadeonrestoration.org), the question of understanding past tree coverage and composition before initiating forest restoration projects is moving rapidly up the political agenda. To understand the former composition of forests requires datasets that span centuries, due to the time it takes trees to reach maturity. Our integrated paleoecological analyses provide an important comparative perspective to understanding contemporary (sub)tropical island forest status and a quantitative evidence-based guide to forest restoration (34). The evidence suggests that in the Canary Islands, thermophilous woodlands were heavily impacted since the first human settlement, while continued exploitation during the historical period has resulted in extreme reduction of its natural distribution and in poor condition for recovery, currently being the most threatened ecosystem of the Canaries (35). The laurel forest was comparatively less affected by first contact and subsequent anthropogenic pressures (indeed they have experienced a significant natural recovery in the last three decades) (7). In Cabo Verde, the story is different. Our analysis suggests that the degradation of the thermophilous woodlands through human pressures greatly surpassed their ability to recover naturally, especially in a context of rapid land use changes (agriculture, livestock, wood provisioning), soil erosion, fire occurrence, and the introduction of invasive species (e.g., Furcraea foetida, L. camara, Leucaena), all heightened by episodes of socioecological stress between 1550 and 1750 CE (32). Importantly, our findings show loss of biotic distinctiveness of the thermophilous woodlands of Cabo Verde, through a combination of decreasing endemics and the introduction of generalist species, generating biotic homogenization (36). This trend of forest convergence during the past 500 y suggests a generalized loss of landscape authenticity at archipelago level that may have had an impact on overall island forest biodiversity and resources. The most likely explanation for why thermophilous woodlands rather than laurel forests were more heavily impacted by human activities may be related to their geographical location. The thermophilous woodlands occupy the midelevations of the Canaries and the highlands in Cabo Verde. These are areas that were probably more suitable for human land use in each archipelago, as they feature fertile soils and water resources.

There is growing global interest in the restoration of degraded, damaged, or destroyed forest ecosystems to provide the goods and services that people value and benefit from (including sequestration of atmospheric CO2, water flow regulation, soil erosion protection, and important habitats for native forest biodiversity) (37, 38), and in this context the questions of which tree species to plant and where, are pressing. To answer these questions requires understanding of how and why forests changed from their preanthropogenic baselines (8). In biodiversity hotspots such as the Canary Islands and Cabo Verde, understanding legacies of past human impacts becomes even more critical, because planting fast growing nonnative species can lead to serious environmental degradation and biodiversity loss. This is a situation that is now common in many biodiverse areas of the world, often representing an attempt to sequester atmospheric CO2. Conservation managers may face a trade-off between rapid reforestation to provide particular ecosystem goods (e.g., to fight soil erosion) and the spread of invasive species that may ultimately endanger the endemic flora.

In both Cabo Verde and the Canary Islands, legislation and afforestation practices to address land degradation were put in place during the early mid-20th century (35, 39). In the Canaries, efforts were first focused on the recovery of pine forests, mainly planting Canarian pine but also using fast-growing nonnative tree species, including Pinus radiata and Eucalyptus. Early pine forest plantations pursued provision (source of wood) and regulation (soil erosion control) goals. Only in the last two decades has active restoration, focused on conservation aims, taken place in the laurel forest (e.g., Gran Canaria) (7) and thermophilous woodlands (e.g., Teno, Tenerife) (35). In Cabo Verde, plantations of fast-growing drought-resistant plant species were established, such as Prosopis juliflora, Eucalyptus, and Pinus canariensis. The result is that, currently, only a small fraction of the forested territory supports endemic and native woodlands that include woody species inhabiting the highlands such as D. draco, Ficus sycomorus, Ficus sur, D. viscosa, Sideroxylon marginata, F. albida, and D. cinerea in the midlands, and Tamarix senegalensis and Phoenix atlantica in the coastal areas (25). These native trees could be included in reforestation efforts, together with fruit-producing taxa such as Cabo Verdean native Ficus that could be beneficial for the local fauna. In addition, further research on the use of timber plantation development may help ascertain if the undesirable effects, such as inhibiting forest understory growth (39), can be outweighed by the potential benefits, such as soil protection.

Our results also show the importance of applying targeted restoration efforts toward the remaining thermophilous forest. In this context, where habitat loss and fragmentation are dominating the islands landscape and in the event of anthropogenic climate change (17), restoration practices may be especially challenging and conservationists might be required to implement complementary ex situ measures such as safeguarding thermophilous plant species in seed banks to preserve the genetic diversity (40). Therefore, enhancing seed banks in both the Canary Islands (e.g., the Canarian Botanical Garden Viera y Clavijo) and in Cabo Verde (e.g., Cabo Verde National Agricultural Research and Development Institute [INIDA]) should also be considered as a conservation priority. This long-term view has highlighted the amount of change that these island forests have undergone and the urgent need to preserve and restore the existing forest remnants, when possible, with extra efforts dedicated to the more seriously diminished communities of thermophilous woodlands in both archipelagos.

Our analyses comprise sediment records previously published and obtained within highland and midelevation volcanic calderas in five islands: La Gomera and Gran Canaria (Canary Islands) and Santo Anto, So Nicolau, and Brava (Cabo Verde). Sample collection was carried out through coring techniques of the former lakes and calderas of Laguna Grande (La Gomera), Laguna de Valleseco (Gran Canaria), and Cova de Pal (Santo Anto), and direct sampling from soil profiles was done in Calderinha (So Nicolau) and Cova Galinha (Brava) sites (Fig. 1).

We constructed age-depth models using the recently updated calibration curves (IntCal20) to convert radiocarbon dates into calibrated ages for all the island sequences using the R package rbacon (41). We used model boundaries in the Gran Canaria, Santo Anto, and So Nicolau records to allow for differential sedimentation rates in records with pronounced changes in accumulation of sediment (SI Appendix, Fig. S1). Bacon outputs are reported as calibrated years before present; with 1950 CE as zero by definition, and a confidence interval of 95% is used for interpretation (SI Appendix, Figs. S1 and S3).

We studied multiple indicators of plant biodiversity and environmental change in each site, including biotic proxies (fossil pollen, Sporormiella fungal spore, and charcoal particles) and abiotic proxies (granulometry and/or soil elemental composition). Proxy-specific information and details of coring sites, laboratory methods, and pollen sums are provided as follows: Laguna Grande (22), Laguna de Valleseco (23), Cova de Pal (26), Calderinha (24), and Cova Galinha (27). Rock Fusion X-ray fluorescence was used for the analysis of sediment geochemistry in the Canarian sites, providing oxide percentages (e.g., TiO2) and organic matter percentage values, and portable X-ray fluorescence (XRF) was used for analysis of Cabo Verde sites, providing elemental percentage data (e.g., Ti) (SI Appendix, Fig. S2).

For statistical analyses, percentage values of non-pollen palynomorphs over pollen sum (including unidentifiable grains in Cabo Verde sites), concentration values of macrocharcoal particles, size measurements of granulometry, and percentage values of XRF were normalized (values range between 0 and 1). We carried out DCA with the Vegan package in RStudio (R Core Team) using pollen percentage values to quantify palynological turnover (42). For CCA, we used the same software and normalized values of selected environmental variables. We chose samples from every environmental variable that shared depth values used in pollen analyses, and when sampling depth values did not coincide, we selected the closest neighboring samples. Thus, environmental variables represent roughly synchronous phenomena. We used 1) percentages of the spores of coprophilous fungi Sporormiella to represent herbivore presence in the local catchment, 2) loss-on-ignition percentage (Cabo Verde) and organic matter percentage (Canary Islands) as a proxy of soil organic content and organic matter flux within the basins, 3) macrocharcoal particle concentrations to represent local fire occurrence, and 4) median grain size (in micrometers) in the Cabo Verde sites and SiO2 percentages in the Canary Island sites as proxies for erosion (sediment run-off from caldera margins).

Pollen data for Laguna Grande (22), Laguna de Valleseco (23), Cova de Pal (26), and Calderinha (24), sites islands can be downloaded from ref. 8. Pollen data of Cova Galinha site (27) have been deposited in Neotoma Paleoecology Database (https://apps.neotomadb.org/explorer/?datasetid=48891). The rest of the data used in the paper are provided within the SI Appendix.

We thank the Spanish Ministry of the Environment and Rural and Marine Environs, Autonomous Organisation of National Parks (Project 003/2008); the Canarian Agency for Research, Innovation, and Information for Society and the European Regional Development Fund (Project SolSubC200801000053); the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation (CGL 2009-10939); and the Spanish Ministry of Education (EX2009-0669) for funding the paleoecological projects in the Canary Islands. We thank the University of Southampton for the Geography and the Environment +3 Postgraduate Research Scholarship awarded to A.C.-B. (2017 to 2020, WRJB1B), as well as the Royal Geographic Society with the Institute of British Geographers (2015, 2019 Research Grants grants), the Explorers Club (exploration grant 2018), the Quaternary Research Association (Chrono-14 award 2018), the Association for Environmental Archaeology (small research grant 2019), Natural Environment Research Council radiocarbon support grants (2018, 2019) for funding our teams paleoecological research in Cabo Verde. We thank Juli Caujap Castells and the Jardn Botnico Canario Viera y ClavijoUnidad asociada al Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Cientficas, for insights into the Cabo Verdean and Canarian seed banks, and two anonymous reviewers for their constructive suggestions to improve the manuscript.

Author contributions: A.C.-B., L.d.N., J.-M.F.-P., R.J.W., K.J.W., M.E., and S.N. designed research; A.C.-B., L.d.N., and S.N. performed research; A.C.-B. and S.N. analyzed data; and A.C.-B., L.d.N., J.-M.F.-P., R.J.W., K.J.W., M.E., and S.N. wrote the paper.

The authors declare no competing interest.

This article is a PNAS Direct Submission. P.R. is a guest editor invited by the Editorial Board.

This article contains supporting information online at https://www.pnas.org/lookup/suppl/doi:10.1073/pnas.2022215118/-/DCSupplemental.

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Anthropogenic transitions from forested to human-dominated landscapes in southern Macaronesia - pnas.org

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China tells NATO chief that allies should stay out of the Indo-Pacific – Yahoo News

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A senior Chinese envoy used an unprecedented conversation with the head of NATO to warn the trans-Atlantic alliance to stay out of the Indo-Pacific.

In recent years, some NATO members have sent ships and planes to the vicinity of China, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said in a call with NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, according to a Chinese summary. NATO should adhere to its original geographical positioning and play a constructive role in securing peaceful and stable regional development.

NATO has turned a wary eye toward China in recent years, as Beijing declared itself a near-Arctic power and forged a partnership with Russia that brought Chinese warships into the Baltic Sea in 2017. With U.S. lawmakers and officials sounding an alarm against Chinas use of economic maneuvers to gain strategic advantages in Europe, Stoltenberg has orchestrated an effort within NATO to consider the possibility of a new threat from a rising communist power even though it's rooted farther east than the Soviet Union in Moscow when the alliance first came together in 1949.

The Secretary General recalled that NATO does not see China as an adversary but called on China to uphold its international commitments and act responsibly in the international system, Stoltenberg said, according to a NATO-issued readout of the call. He raised NATOs concerns over Chinas coercive policies, expanding nuclear arsenal and lack of transparency on its military modernization.

US AND BRITISH NAVIES NEEDLE CHINA WITH SHOW OF FORCE

For most of its existence, NATO has focused on security within Europe and North America. Still, the U.S. invocation of the alliances collective defense pledge brought the bloc into Afghanistan for a two-decade conflict. Several of the leading NATO member states have significant geopolitical stakes in the Indo-Pacific. The United States has several key allies in the region from Australia to South Korea and Japan, for instance and important American territories. Likewise, France has substantial territorial holdings, and the U.S. and the United Kingdom have a particularly close alliance with the Australians.

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The secretary general urged China to engage meaningfully in dialogue, confidence-building, and transparency measures regarding its nuclear capabilities and doctrine, Stoltenberg said. He stressed that reciprocal transparency and dialogue on arms control would benefit both NATO and China.

NATO joined the U.S. in July to accuse a Chinese spy agency of responsibility for a series of really eye-opening cyberattacks, including one that targeted Microsoft Exchange. Beijing, on the other hand, can boast of close economic ties with key members of NATO and the European Union, such as Germany and Hungary.

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The two sides should look at each other rationally and objectively rather than listening to and believing in misinformation only and being confused by lies and rumors, the Chinese foreign minister argued. China has not been, and will not be, an adversary of NATO.

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NATO Secretary General welcomes cooperation with the International Energy Agency – NATO HQ

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NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg welcomed the Executive Director of the International Energy Agency (IEA) Dr Fatih Birol to NATO Headquarters on Tuesday (28 September 2021) to discuss topics of mutual interest to both organizations. These included climate change and security, energy security, and the clean energy transition, as well as strengthening cooperation between NATO and the IEA.

This year, both NATO and the IEA have taken major steps to address climate change. At the Summit in June, NATO leaders agreed the Alliances first Climate Change and Security Action Plan, incorporating climate change into the full spectrum of NATOs work. At the same time, the IEA took the lead in guiding the way forward on energy policies, which can lead to net zero carbon emissions.

The Secretary General welcomed the increasing cooperation between NATO and the IEA. The global transition to clean energy makes closer ties even more important.

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Kremlin says NATO expansion in Ukraine is a ‘red line’ for Putin – Reuters

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Servicemen attend the "RAPID TRIDENT-2021" military exercise at Ukraine's International Peacekeeping Security Centre near Yavoriv in the Lviv region, Ukraine September 24, 2021. REUTERS/Gleb Garanich/File Photo

MOSCOW, Sept 27 (Reuters) - The Kremlin warned on Monday that any expansion of NATO military infrastructure in Ukraine would cross one of President Vladimir Putin's "red lines", and Belarus said it had agreed to take action with Moscow to counter growing NATO activity.

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, a close Moscow ally, accused the United States of setting up training centres in Ukraine which he said amounted to military bases. He said he had discussed the issue with Putin.

"It's clear we need to react to this...(We) agreed that we need to take some kind of measures in response," Lukashenko was quoted as saying by the RIA news agency.

Ukraine began joint military exercises with U.S. and other NATO member troops last week, while Russia and Belarus held large-scale drills that alarmed the West. read more

Ukraine, which is not a NATO member, has long sought closer ties with the West and its militaries. It has had fraught relations with Russia since Moscow annexed the Crimea peninsula in 2014 and backed separatists fighting in Ukraine's east.

Russia staunchly opposes the idea of NATO membership for Ukraine. It alarmed Ukraine and the West earlier this year by building up military forces near Ukraine's borders.

Asked what joint actions Lukashenko had been referring to, the Kremlin said: "These are actions that ensure the security of the two of our states."

"President Putin has repeatedly noted the issue of the potential broadening of NATO infrastructure on Ukrainian territory, and (he) has said this would cross those red lines that he has spoken about before," the Kremlin said.

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba rejected the notion of a Russian "red line" outside of Russia's own borders, and said Kyiv had its own security to think about.

"Putin's 'red lines' are limited to Russia's borders," he tweeted. "On our side of the Ukrainian-Russian border we can figure out ourselves what to do in the interests of the Ukrainian people, as well as Ukraine's and Europe's security."

Reporting by Dmitry Antonov and Natalia Zinets; Writing by Tom Balmforth; editing by Andrew Osborn and Timothy Heritage

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France and Greece take first step towards EU force in NATO – EURACTIV

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PARIS | ATHENS

France and Greece have signed a landmark military agreement that provides mutual assistance in the event of one party coming under attack by a third country, even if the latter belongs to NATO. Politicians and analysts spoke to EURACTIV France and Greece, emphasising what this means for Europes strategic autonomy. Read more.

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EU PRESIDENCY

EU research ministers adopt resolutions on global approach to research, innovation.EU ministers responsible for research adopted on Tuesday (28 September) resolutions on a global approach to research and innovation, whose aim is to boost resilience and competitiveness of the EU, Slovenias minister of education, science and sports said after chairing a session of the Competitiveness Council. More.

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BERLIN

Bullmann: SPD electorate rejects coalition with conservatives.The electorate of Germanys Social Democrats (SPD) rejects potential collaboration with Christian Democrats (CDU-CSU) and prefers a progressive government looking at the future rather than a return to the austerity-driven past, EU lawmaker and senior SPD official Udo Bullmann told EURACTIV in an interview in Berlin. More.

German conservatives anxious to project internal cohesion. The historic loss of Germanys conservative union of CDU/CSU has put the party in second place behind Olaf Scholzs SPD. Down 9% relative to 2017, many party members have lost their seat in the Bundestag, which in turn has the party seething internally as it must elect a leader for its parliamentary faction. Read more.

Greens youth opposes Jamaica scenario. The Greens youthassociation said it was strongly against governing alongside the conservatives and the liberals in a Jamaica coalition, thus reducing the hopes the conservative union CDU/CSU had that it may continue to form a governing coalition. Read more.

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PARIS

French laboratory Sanofi stops development of its mRNA vaccine. Sanofi is dropping plans to develop its mRNA COVID-19 vaccine despite positive results in phases 1 and 2 because of Pfizer/BioNTech and Modernas dominance in the market, the French pharma corporation announced on Tuesday. Read more.

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VIENNA

Austria receives first tranche from EU recovery fund. Austria on Tuesday received its first portion of EU recovery funds worth 450 million of a 3.5 billion total to finance projects aimed at industry digitalisation and climate protection. Read more.

UK AND IRELAND

DUBLIN

Irish defence minister begins review of sexual abuse allegations in army. Irish Defence Minister Simon Coveney met with former military personnel on Tuesday after a documentary that aired earlier this month detailed decades of alleged sexual harassment, assault and bullying towards female members of the Defence Forces. Read more.

NORDICS AND BALTICS

HELSINKI

Finnish intelligence names Russia, China as main suspects of espionage. Finland is a continuous target of state-sponsored cyber espionage, with China and Russia being among the main suspects, according to the National Security Overview published by the Finnish Security and Intelligence Services (Supo). Read more.

VILNIUS

Lithuanian social democrats take lead in polls. The centre-left Lietuvos Socialdemokrat Partija (Social Democratic Party of Lithuania, LSDP) would better their position from last years heavy election defeat where the party received 9.6% of the vote to almost 30% if an election were held today, according to the latest poll for Lietuvos Rytas. Read more.

Lithuania wants EU to legalise migrant pushbacks. Lithuania has proposed changing the existing EU migration rules to legalise pushbacks of irregular migrants when an extreme situation is declared in a country, the Baltic News Service reported on Tuesday.

In such situations when theres an extreme situation and illegal migrants are being used as an instrument to put pressure on countries, countries have the right to make such decisions [like] the ones we have made in our national law, ie to prevent illegal entrance, Lithuanian Interior Minister Agn Bilotait said.

Yes, this measure should be legalised but, I want to stress, only under an extreme situation, the minister added when asked whether she meant migrants pushbacks on the border. (LRT.lt/en)

EUROPES SOUTH

ATHENS

Greece encourages SMEs mergers in Recovery Fund implementation.The Greek government will incentivise small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) that are hard-hit by the pandemic to merge to ensure financing from the Recovery Fund, Greek finance minister Christos Staikouras told EURACTIV Greece in an exclusive interview.

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ROME

Blah, blah, blah young climate activists call out governments for their climate inaction. Build back better. Blah, blah, blah. Green economy. Blah blah blah. Net-zero by 2050. Blah, blah, blah. This is all we hear from our so-called leaders. Words that sound great but so far have not led to action. Our hopes and ambitions drown in their empty promises, said Greta Thunberg during the opening sessions of the Youth4Climate event in Milan. The Italian government hosted the event, which welcomed 400 young climate activists ahead of the COP26 climate summit set to take place in late October in Glasgow. Read more.

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MADRID

Spanish government approves minimum wage increase. The Spanish government approved on Tuesday an increase of the minimum wage to 965 per month. This is in line with the recommendations made by the European Commission to reduce wage differences across the bloc. Read more.

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LISBON

Portugal: Possible political crises over state budget negotiation unthinkable. There is no political crisis scenario following a possible state budget rejection, Prime Minister Antnio Costa told journalists Tuesday. The response came following questions on whether the current political situation could make it more difficult for political forces such as the PCP, PEV and Left Bloc to make the state budget proposal for 2022 viable. Read more.

VISEGRAD

PRAGUE

Renew leadership turns blind eye to Babis behaviour. As Czech Prime Minister Andrej Babi (ANO, Renew) is stepping up his anti-EU rhetoric ahead of the elections in October, the Renew Europe leadership is turning a blind eye to his behaviour. Read more.

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WARSAW

Morawiecki government considers breaking up sincere cooperation principle. As the stalemate between the Polish government and the European Commission continues over the approval of the Polish recovery plans, there are signals from within the government of Mateusz Morawiecki that all retaliatory options against the Commissions inaction are on the table. Read more.

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BUDAPEST

Hungary lashes out at Ukraine over Russian gas. Foreign Minister Pter Szijjrt summoned the Ukrainian ambassador in Budapest on Tuesday over Kyivs decision to turn to the European Commission over the Hungarian-Russian gas deal, Telex reported. Read more.

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BRATISLAVA

President Caputova: Slovakia needs stability, leadership. Slovakia is a wounded country that is in desperate need of stability and clear leadership, said President Zuzana aputov in an address to the nation in her second state of the republic on Tuesday. She added that Slovakia needs peace based on truth and justice, but also on expertise and solidarity. Read more.

NEWS FROM THE BALKANS

SOFIA

Bulgarian presidential candidate accused of Russian espionage. The Russophiles for the Revival of the Fatherland party have nominated party chairman Nikolay Malinov, accused of spying for Russia, as their presidential candidate. Read more.

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BUCHAREST

Prime Minister Citus days may be numbered. Just a few days after being elected president of the largest centre-right party in Romania, Prime Minister Florin Citu had to make a getaway from a news conference, visibly unsettled by the questions journalists asked regarding the allies of his PNL party (EPP). Read more.

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ZAGREB

US-Adriatic Charter members to improve interoperability of armed forces. We seek to increase security in the region through close cooperation, meetings and participation in exercises. In this, we get a lot of assistance from the US European Command which, by organising exercises for the A5 members, increases interoperability, strengthens the armed forces of the member states and ultimately strengthens and stabilises the entire region, said Chief of the General Staff of the Croatian Armed Forces, Admiral Robert Hranj. He made the statement during a conference of the chiefs of staff of the armed forces of the US-Adriatic Charter (A5) member states which was held in Podstrana. (eljko Trkanjec | EURACTIV.hr)

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BELGRADE

Serbian defence minister: Army has not trespassed anywhere it should not be. The Serbian army has not trespassed anywhere where it should not be, said Defense Minister Nebojsa Stefanovi on Tuesday, adding that President Aleksandar Vui has given the order to heighten the alert of the Serbian army units across the Ground Safety Zone along the border with Kosovo. Read more.

In other news, Moscow is monitoring with concern the rising tensions in Kosovo which were provoked through the irresponsible actions of the Kosovo authorities, Russian Foreign Minister spokeswoman Maria Zaharova has said. Today it has become obvious that events are going from bad to worse, Zaharova said in a written statement posted on the Russian Foreign Ministrys website.

Zaharova said that the actions of Pristinas strategists had not been subjected to criticism by either Brussels or Washington. We stress yet again the NATO forces for Kosovo and Metohija and the EU mission have the necessary mandates to prevent lawlessness and hence bear full responsibility for protecting civilians, preserving peace and security, Zaharova said.

The Russian spokeswoman also said that it was time to apply energetic pressure on the administration in Pristina to withdraw police forces from northern Kosovo and prevent the situation from becoming an open conflict.(EURACTIV.rs | betabriefing.com)

AGENDA:

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[Edited by Sarantis Michalopoulos, Alexandra Brzozowski, Daniel Eck, Zoran Radosavljevic, Alice Taylor]

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France and Greece take first step towards EU force in NATO - EURACTIV

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AUKUS, a Reshuffle for International Security and the End of NATO? – Modern Diplomacy

Posted: at 7:20 am

Abstract: The nuclear news from North Korea remains clear and threatening. Ignoring both political warnings and legal prohibitions, Kim Jong Un has continued testing shorter range weapons that could imperil U.S. allies South Korea and Japan. In September, the North tested a new cruise missile it intends to arm with nuclear warheads and demonstrated a new system for firing ballistic missiles from trains. Kims escalatory launch from rail cars came just hours before the South reported its first test of a submarine-launched ballistic missile. Tackling such complexities, the following article by Professor Louis Ren Beres recommends issue-specific forms of dialectical thinking to US planners and policy-makers. His focused recommendations include a US policy shift in strategic objective from enemy denuclearization to mutual nuclear deterrence.

The worst does sometimes happen.-Friedrich Durrenmatt, Swiss Playwright

Pyongyangs recent missile tests reveal more than narrowly technical information about advanced military hardware. These tests reveal that Kim Jong Un has no intention to denuclearize. A reciprocal question now arises for the United States: What should Washington do in response?

To begin, there should be no resumption of incoherent and needlessly belligerent escalatory threats by an American president. There should be, instead, a conscious refinement of conceptual understandings. Before the United States can limit Pyongyangs determined capacity to expand ever-more aggressively with its nuclear weapons and ballistic missile programs, Washington will need to embrace much more deeply thoughtful ideas about military power and national security.[1]

What should this required embrace actually look like? First, President Joseph Biden will need to understand that even a tangible US superiority in delivery vehicles and nuclear firepower need not signify American safety or potential victory. Though not readily apparent, this presumed US advantage could encourage a false sense of national influence and a visceral pattern of strategic risk-taking.

Overall, there could be no minor nuclear crises. In essence, a nuclear confrontation with North Korea any nuclear confrontation could quickly spin out of control, leaving even the militarily superior nation with grievous losses or impairments.[2] What then?

The Intellectual Imperative

For the United States, the core policy obligations are plain. Going forward, proper reactions to North Korean nuclear expansion must be based exclusively upon Science and Reason. Rejecting the previous American presidents announced preference for attitude over preparation, Mr. Biden should restore this country to intellectually defensible foreign policies.

During the rancorous Trump Era, all proposed presidential solutions to North Korean nuclearization became crudely ad hominem (We fell in love, said Donald Trump about Kim Jong Un). At this point, to restore basic coherence to US-North Korean diplomacy, pertinent strategic policies will need to be based upon a more significant American appreciation of decision -making complexities. Inter alia, this appreciation should include an awareness of various multiple synergies.

What intersections should be included? In all synergistic intersections, the whole of any particular outcome must be greater than the sum of its parts. Additionally, among military planners, the term force multiplier is often used to communicate the same or similar principles.

There is more. For American planners, specificity and generality[3] will both be required. Comprehensive theories are necessary.[4] Always, the prevailing world order,[5] like the myriad individual human bodies who comprise it, will need to be recognized as a system. No discernible effects could be entirely isolated or singular.

Among the clarifying implications of this central metaphor, any more-or-less major conventional conflict in northeast Asia could heighten prospects of international conflicts elsewhere. This is the case whether such prospects would be immediate or incremental. These prospects could include a regional nuclear war. Significant risks of such a worst case scenario would be enlarged by American searches for no-longer plausible outcomes. An important example of such a mistaken search would be one that is directed toward victory.

Perils of Seeking Victory

There is good reason for identifying this example. Here, a cautionary observation about victory is persuasive, at least in part, because all core meanings of victory and defeat have changed dramatically.[6] Inter alia, these are no longer the meanings offered by Prussian military strategist Carl von Clausewitz classic On War (1832). At a little-examined metaphysical level, the ultimate victory for any human being or institutionalized collection of human beings must be victory over death.[7]

In most prospectively identifiable wars between nation-states, there are no longer any confirmable criteria of demarcation between victory and defeat. Even a victory on some actual field of battle might not in any calculable way reduce serious security threats to the American homeland or US allies. Such grave threats, whether foreseen or unforeseen, could include various sub-state aggressions (terrorism) and/or widening attacks upon regional or non-regional US allies.

Once it was acknowledged as a distinct foreign-policy objective, any declared US search for victory over North Korea could create a corrosively lethal escalatory dynamic with Pyongyang, one from which Washington could no longer expect any derivative military advantages. Such predictably injurious creations could take place in variously unanticipated increments or as an unexpected (bolt-from-the-blue) enemy aggression.[8] In the foreseeable worst case, an unwitting US forfeiture of escalation dominance would signify starkly irreversible American losses. These losses could include chaotic conditions that create tens or hundreds of thousands of prompt fatalities and much larger numbers of latent cancer deaths.

For US policy planners, a great deal of subject-matter specificity must soon be taken into close account. In a promisingly coherent post-Trump policy world where history and science regain proper pride of place,[9] a capable American president can finally acknowledge something too long disregarded. It is that because nation-states no longer declare wars or enter into binding war-termination agreements, the application of traditional criteria of war winning to interstate conflicts no longer make any legal sense.[10]

Even more important, the empty political rhetoric of victory carries no correspondingly objective assessment or evaluation. No one can ever really know whether a particular war has been won or lost. And if this ambiguity were not the case, the winning side might still remain substantially vulnerable to assorted enemy aggressions, whether state, sub-state or hybrid inflicted.

The Limits of Military Acumen, Rationality and Prediction

There is more. In the very complicated matters at hand, ascertainable benefits might not lie in any traditional forms of military expertise. A core question arises: Exactly how much applicable experience could American generals have garnered in starting, managing or ending a nuclear war? To what extent might the president and his senior commanders see only what they would want to see, including perhaps a seemingly gainful prospect of US military preemption?[11]

In these opaque nuclear times, selective perceptions could sometimes prove to be mistaken. In principle, even after sober consideration of retaliatory consequences, an American president might still discover tangible benefit in launching specific preemptive strikes against an already nuclear North Korea. This prospect arises at least in exceptionally residual circumstances.[12] Accordingly, there could exist certain definable crises where refraining from striking first would appear more costly than gainful (irrational). These would be crises that allow North Korea to implement certain severely-complicating protective measures.[13]

Whats the bottom line on US defensive first strikes against an already nuclear North Korea? It is that even such an American preemption could sometimes be rational, but only in utterly last resort strategic calculations.

How can America tap pertinent military expertise on such critical existential judgments? All things considered, it is reasonable to expect that the generals could have no adequate expectation of pertinent dialectics;[14] that is, about Pyongyangs selected response. Still, by no means does this candid expectation represent any ad hominem or gratuitous criticism of professional military planners. It is merely a dispassionate analytic reflection on the historical uniqueness of nuclear conflict.

There have been no nuclear wars; hence, there can be no experts on nuclear warfare.

This incontestable conclusion is most urgently compelling in regard to the myriad complexities of any two-power nuclear competition: (1) one where there would exist substantial asymmetries in relative military power position; and (2) one where the weaker (North Korean) side could maintain a verifiable potential to inflict unacceptably damaging first-strikes or reprisals upon the stronger American side.

Again, no truly reliable probability estimations can ever be undertaken in reference to unprecedented or sui generis situations. In science, authentic probability judgments must always be based upon a carefully calculated frequency of relevant past events.

There are other problems in seeking an ultimate victory over North Korea. Recalling the good old days, which extend into the twentieth-century, nation-states have generally had to defeat enemy armies before being able to wreak any wished-for destruction upon the adversarys cities and infrastructures. In those earlier times of more traditional doctrinal arrangements concerning war and peace, an individual countrys demonstrated capacity to win was necessarily prior to a sought-after capacity to destroy. An appropriate and well-known example to US military thinkers would be the case of Persia and Greece at the 480 BCE Battle of Thermopylae. Today, unlike what was purportedly the case at Thermopylae, a state neednt be able to defeat enemy armies in order to inflict calculably gainful harms. Even if the US were to win against North Korea in a war, that defeated adversary could still inflict vast harms upon American citizens, institutions and infrastructures.

At a minimum, such an enemy could enlist destructive proxy forces, such as bio-terrorist surrogates.

The Capacity to Deter is Distinct from the Capacity to Win

For President Biden and his counselors, there does remain some good news. The United States neednt be able to win a particular conflict in order to credibly threaten a significant foe like North Korea (deterrence) or to inflict retaliatory harms upon this enemy. What this good news means today is that the capacity to deter is no longer necessarily identical to the capacity to win. For the United States, the principal war-planning or war-deterring lesson of any such ongoing transformations now warrants serious study.

For the United States, the only prospective victory of immediate consequence is an intellectual victory. Conceptually, what matters most will be an American capacity to win bewilderingly complex struggles of mind over mind. Going forward, American planner must diligently work through variously dialectic forms of struggle with Pyongyang, not just enter into ad hoc or visceral contests of mind over matter.

There are also various relevant points of law to be considered.[15] This is because jurisprudencehas its own proper place in such bewildering strategic calculations. More specifically, in terms of applicable law, winning and losing may no longer mean much for successful strategic planning. This tangible devaluation of victory and defeat should also become more obvious with regard to Americas wars on terror. Now, after Afghanistan, pressing conflict issues will need to be examined within continuously transforming US military plans and objectives regarding not just North Korea but also Syria, Iraq, Yemen and assorted other places.

Regarding victory, he U.S. can never meaningfully win any upcoming wars with Al Qaeda, Hezbollah, ISIS-K, Taliban, etc. In part, this is the case because national leaders could never know for certain whether a presumptively zero-sum conflict with virulent sub-state or hybrid adversaries was actually over. On pertinent definitional matters, a hybrid enemy would refer to any adversary that combined state and sub-state elements in changing ratios of composition.

Operationally, winning and losing are now fully extraneous to Americas collective interests, or, in those foreseeable cases where victory might still be expressed as a high-priority national objective, fully harmful. Ironically, a narrowly static American orientation to winning against North Korea could sometime lead the United States toward huge and irreversible losses. Such loses would likely ensue from various critical American misjudgments on escalation dominance.

There is more. United States military planners could look usefully to The East. Long ago, famed Chinese strategist Sun-Tzu had reasoned simply: Subjugating the enemys army without fighting is the true pinnacle of excellence. To meet current US national security objectives vis--vis North Korea and other potential nuclear adversaries, this ancient Chinese military wisdom suggests that Washington now openly seek deterrence rather than victory. Any such necessary discontinuance should remain connected to the stringent requirements of maintaining optimal control over all necessary military escalations.

If, in the future, these requirements were somehow minimized or disregarded, a resultant regional conflict could have spillover implications for other nation-states and for other parts of the world. Different elements of chaos notwithstanding, world politics and world military processes are always expressive of an underlying system. This elucidating characterization must lie continuously at the core of any coherent US strategic doctrine.

Final Strategic Calculations

Before these systemic connections can be understood and assessed, however, US planners must realize that the complicated logic of strategic nuclear calculations demands a discrete and capably nuanced genre of decision-making. This would be a genre that calls for considerable intellectual refinement in extremis atomicum. As an example, casually expecting an American president to convincingly leverage Chinese and Russian sanctions on behalf of the United States would miss at least two vital and intersecting points: (1) the regime in Pyongyang will likely never back down on its overall plan for nuclearization, however severe sanctions might seemingly become; and (2) counting upon meaningful sanctions from Beijing or Moscow would become inherently problematic for the United States.

Both China and Russia remain substantially more worried about their traditional national enemy in Washington than about future dangers arising from Pyongyang.

Truth will out. In world politics, as in law,[16] truth is exculpatory. Like it or not, a nuclear North Korea is a fait accompli. Soon, President Biden will have to focus upon creating stable nuclear deterrence with North Korea (a) for the benefit of the United States; (b) for the benefit of Americas directly vulnerable allies in South Korea and Japan; and (c) for the benefit of its indirectly vulnerable allies elsewhere, including Israel in the still-dissembling Middle East.

However inconspicuous, these important allies remain integral components of the same organic world system; they can never be helpfully separated from the palpable consequences of American geopolitical posture.

The existence of `system in the world is at once obvious to every observer of nature, observed 20th century French Jesuit scholar, Pierre Teilhard de Chardin, no matter whom. Nowhere is this interrelatedness more obvious or more potentially consequential than in the continuing matter of a nuclear North Korea and US foreign policy decision-making. This urgent threat from Pyongyang will not subside or disappear on its own. Immediately, it must be Americas sober responsibility to better understand all relevant American security obligations as well as their derivative complications.

Nuclear Warfighting Scenarios

Should nuclear weapons ever be introduced into any future conflict between the United States and North Korea, actual instances of nuclear war-fighting could occur. This would be the case as long as: (a) US conventional first-strikes against North Korea would not destroy Pyongyangs second-strike nuclear capability; (b) US conventional retaliations for a North Korean conventional first-strike would not destroy Pyongyangs nuclear counter-retaliatory capability; (c) US preemptive nuclear strikes would not destroy Pyongyangs second-strike nuclear capability; and (d) US conventional retaliations for North Korean conventional first strikes would not destroy Pyongyangs nuclear counter-retaliatory capability.

Any US nuclear preemption would be potentially catastrophic and hence implausible. Reciprocally, assuming rationality, any North Korean nuclear preemption against the United States or its allies would be unlikely or altogether inconceivable. Can we reasonably and continuously assume North Korean rationality? Kim Jong Un has been steadily accelerating his testing of advanced nuclear missiles and supporting infrastructures. There is no persuasive basis to doubt that his vast commitment to nuclear weapons is in any manner reversible.

In January 2021, after describing the United States as our biggest enemy, Kim Jong Un called openly for more advanced nuclear weapons and infrastructures. At that time, during fully nine hours of blistering remarks at a party conference in Pyongyang, Kim summarized his countrys basic strategic posture: Our foreign political activities should be focused and redirected on subduing the United States, our biggest enemyNo matter who is in power in the US, the true nature of the US and its fundamental policies towards North Korea never change.

Now, capable strategic analysts guiding American president Joseph Bien should enhance their nuclear investigations by carefully identifying basic distinctions between intentional or deliberate nuclear war and unintentional or inadvertent nuclear war. The risks are apt to vary considerably, especially if rationality is also factored into the manty-sided calculation. Those American analysts who would remain too singularly focused upon a deliberate nuclear war scenario could all-too-casually underestimate a far more serious nuclear threat to the United States.

This means the increasingly credible threat of an unintentional or inadvertent nuclear war.

An additional conceptual distinction must be inserted into any US analytic scenario mix. This is the subtle but still important difference between an inadvertent nuclear war and an accidental nuclear war. Any accidental nuclear war would have to be inadvertent; conversely, however, there could be forms of inadvertent nuclear war that would not be accidental. Most critical, in this connection, would be significant errors in calculation committed by one or both sides that is, more-or-less reciprocal mistakes that lead directly and/or inexorably to nuclear conflict.

The most blatant example of such a mistake would concern assorted misjudgments of enemy intent or capacity that emerge during the course of any ongoing crisis escalation.

Wider Implications of Chaos

What about chaos? How would this indecipherable condition impact pertinent models of rational decision-making? Whether described in the Old Testament or in other evident sources of Western philosophy, chaos could become as much a source of human improvement as decline.[17] It is this prospectively positive side of chaos that is intended by Friedrich Nietzsches dense remark in Thus Spoke Zarathustra (1883): I tell you, ye have still chaos in you.

When expressed in aptly neutral tones, chaos represents that condition which prepares the world for all things, whether sacred or profane. It reveals that yawning gulf of emptiness where nothing is as yet, but where variously remaining civilizational opportunity can still originate. The 18th century German poet Friedrich Hlderlin observed: There is a desert sacred and chaotic, which stands at the roots of the things, and which prepares all things.

Insightfully, in the ancient pagan world, Greek philosophers thought of this desert as logos, a primal designation which indicates that chaos is anything but starkly random or without merit.

One core conclusion is beyond reasonable question. It is that the only rational use for American nuclear weapons in any forthcoming US-North Korea negotiation must be as diplomatic bargaining elements of interstate dissuasion/persuasion. Barring any sudden crisis initiated by North Korean nuclear strike a crisis that would immediately place the American president in extremis atomicum there could be absolutely no gainful use for such weapons as actual implements of war. If there could sometime arise a strategically rational justification for nuclear war-waging, one in which the expected benefits of nuclear weapons use would seemingly exceed expected costs, the planet as a whole could be imperiled, perhaps even irremediably.

Prima facie, there can be no credible guarantees that US-North Korean relations will not sometime descend into tangible nuclear conflict. The worst, warns Swiss playwright Friedrich Durrenmatt, does sometimes happen. For the United States, the best way to avoid any such irreversible folly with North Korea would be to reluctantly accept that belligerent country into the nuclear club, but still take intellect-based steps to ensure that it remains subject to American nuclear deterrence.

[1] What is the good of passing from one untenable position to another, asks Samuel Beckett philosophically in Endgame, of seeking justification always on the same plane? Thought the celebrated Irish playwright was certainly not thinking specifically about world politics or national security, his generalized query remains well-suited to this strategic inquiry. As competitive power-politics has never worked, why keep insisting upon it as a presumptively viable doctrine?

[2] For informed assessments of plausible consequences of nuclear war fighting, see, by this author: Louis Ren Beres, SURVIVING AMID CHAOS: ISRAELS NUCLEAR STRATEGY (London: Rowman and Littlefield, 2016/2018); Louis Ren Beres, APOCALYPSE: NUCLEAR CATASTROPHE IN WORLD POLITICS (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1980); Louis Ren Beres, MIMICKING SISYPHUS: AMERICAS COUNTERVAILING NUCLEAR STRATEGY (Lexington MA: Lexington Books, 1983); Louis Ren Beres, REASON AND REALPOLITIK: U S FOREIGN POLICY AND WORLD ORDER (Lexington MA; Lexington Books, 1984); and Louis Ren Beres, ed., SECURITY OR ARMAGEDDON: ISRAELS NUCLEAR STRATEGY (Lexington MA: Lexington Books, 1986).

[3] The need for generality notwithstanding, strategic thinkers should never lose sight of the human consequences of their abstractions. By definition, theory is a simplification, one purposely excluding from consideration those factors deemed unessential to analytic explanation. This indispensable exclusion comes at a cost, however, because it involves the palpable sacrifice of espirit de finesse or the individual human element of any catastrophe. Recalling the poet Goethes observation in Urfaust, the original Faust fragment: All theory, dear friend, is gray, and the golden tree of life is green. (Grau, theurer Freund, ist alle Theorie, Und grn des Lebens goldner Baum.)

[4] Theory is a net, observes German poet Novalis, and only those who cast, can catch. This apt metaphor was embraced by philosopher of science Karl Popper as the epigraph to his classic work on philosophy of science: The Logic of Scientific Discovery (1934).

[5] The term world order has its contemporary origins in a scholarly movement begun at the Yale Law School in the mid- and late 1960s and later adopted by the Politics Department at Princeton University in 1967-68. The present author was an early member of the Princeton-based World Order Models Project, and wrote several of the early books and articles in this once still-emergent academic genre.

[6]See by this writer, at The Hill: Louis Ren Beres: https://thehill.com/blogs/pundits-blog/the-military/347395-opinion-victory-in-afghanistan-has-no-serious-meaning

[7]Throughout history, notions of ultimate victory have been associated with personal immortality. To wit, in his posthumously published Lecture on Politics (1896), German historian Heinrich von Treitschke observed: Individual man sees in his own country the realization of his earthly immortality. Earlier, German philosopher Georg Friedrich Hegel opined, in his Philosophy of Right (1820), that the state represents the march of God in the world. The deification of Realpolitik, a transformation from mere principle of action to a sacred end in itself, drew its originating strength from the doctrine of sovereignty advanced in the sixteenth and seventeenth centuries. Initially conceived as a principle of internal order, this doctrine underwent a specific metamorphosis, whence it became the formal or justifying rationale for international anarchy that is, for the global state of nature. First established by Jean Bodin as a juristic concept in De Republica (1576), sovereignty came to be regarded as a power absolute and above the law. Understood in terms of modern international relations, this doctrine encouraged the notion that states lie above and beyond any form of legal regulation in their interactions with each other.

[8] See especially: RESOLUTION ON THE DEFINITION OF AGGRESSION, Dec. 14, 1974, U.N.G.A. Res. 3314 (XXIX), 29 U.N. GAOR, Supp. (No. 31) 142, U.N. Doc. A/9631, 1975, reprinted in 13 I.L.M. 710, 1974; and CHARTER OF THE UNITED NATIONS, Art. 51 Done at San Francisco, June 26, 1945. Entered into force for the United States, Oct. 24, 1945, 59 Stat. 1031, T.S. No. 993, Bevans 1153, 1976, Y.B.U.N. 1043.

[9] Intellect rots the brain shrieked Joseph Goebbels at a Nuremberg Germany rally in 1935. I love the poorly educated echoed American presidential candidate Donald Trump at a 2016 rally in the United States. Perhaps to authenticate his anti-intellectualism, Trump went on to propose household bleach as a Covid19 treatment, urge the use of nuclear weapons against hurricanes and praise American revolutionary armies in the 18th century for gaining control of all national airports.

[10] Under authoritative international law, which is generally a part of US law, the question of whether or not a state of war exists between states is ordinarily ambiguous. Traditionally, it was held that a formal declaration of war was necessary before any true state of war could be said to exist. Hugo Grotius divided wars into declared wars, which were legal, and undeclared wars, which were not. (See Hugo Grotius, The Law of War and Peace, Bk. III, Chas. III, IV, and XI.) By the start of the twentieth century, the position that war can obtain only after a conclusive declaration of war by one of the parties was codified by Hague Convention III. This treaty stipulated, inter alia, that hostilities must never commence without a previous and explicit warning in the form of a declaration of war or an ultimatum. (See Hague Convention III Relative to the Opening of Hostilities, 1907, 3 NRGT, 3 series, 437, article 1.) Currently, formal declarations of war could be tantamount to admissions of international criminality because of the express criminalization of aggression by authoritative international law. It could, therefore, represent a clear jurisprudential absurdity to tie any true state of war to prior declarations of belligerency. It follows, further, that a state of war may exist without any formal declarations, but only if there should exist an actual armed conflict between two or more states, and/or at least one of these affected states considers itself at war.

[11] As a legally permissible form of such a preemption, anticipatory self-defense is rooted in customary international law (see note immediately below), Customary international law is identified as an authoritative source of world legal norms at Art. 38 of the UNs Statute of the International Court of Justice. International law, an integral part of the legal system of all states in world politics, assumes a general obligation of states to supply benefits to one another and to avoid war wherever possible. This core assumption of jurisprudential solidarity is known formally as a peremptory or jus cogens expectation, that is, one that is not subject to any reasonable question. It can be found, inter alia, in Justinian, Corpus Juris Civilis, Hugo Grotius, The Law of War and Peace (1625) and Emmerich de Vattel, The Law of Nations or Principles of Natural Law (1758).

[12] In law, any such defensive first-strikes, if permissible, could be considered anticipatory self-defense. The normative origins of such defense liein customary international law, more precisely, in The Caroline, a case that concerned the unsuccessful rebellion of 1837 in Upper Canada against British rule. Following this case, the serious threat of armed attack has generally justified certain militarily defensive actions. In an exchange of diplomatic notes between the governments of the United States and Great Britain, then U.S. Secretary of State Daniel Webster outlined a framework for self-defense that did not require an antecedent attack. Here, the jurisprudential framework permitted a military response to a threat so long as the danger posed was instant, overwhelming, leaving no choice of means, and no moment for deliberation. See: Beth M. Polebaum, National Self-defense in International Law: An Emerging Standard for a Nuclear Age, 59 N.Y.U.L. Rev. 187, 190-91 (1984) (noting that the Caroline case had transformed the right of self-defense from an excuse for armed intervention into a legal doctrine). Still earlier, see: Hugo Grotius, Of the Causes of War, and First of Self-Defense, and Defense of Our Property, reprinted in 2 Classics of International Law, 168-75 (Carnegie Endowment Trust, 1925) (1625); and Emmerich de Vattel, The Right of Self-Protection and the Effects of the Sovereignty and Independence of Nations, reprinted in 3 Classics of International Law, 130 (Carnegie Endowment Trust, 1916) (1758). Also, Samuel Pufendorf, The Two Books on the Duty of Man and Citizen According to Natural Law, 32 (Frank Gardner Moore., tr., 1927 (1682).

[13]Designed to guard against any US preemption, these measures could involve the attachment of hair trigger launch mechanisms to nuclear weapon systems and/or the adoption of launch on warning policies, possibly coupled with pre-delegations of launch authority. This means, incrementally, that the US could find itself endangered by certain steps taken by Pyongyang to prevent a belligerent preemption. Optimally, the United States would do everything possible to prevent such steps, especially because of expanded risks of accidental or unauthorized attacks launched against its own or allied armaments/ populations. But if such steps were to become a fait accompli, Washington could still calculate correctly that a preemptive strike would be legal and cost-effective. This is because the expected enemy retaliation, however damaging, could still appear more tolerable than the expected consequences of enemy first-strikes strikes likely occasioned by the antecedent failure of anti-preemption protocols.

[14] Dialectic is Platos term for what science and philosophy do. It is rooted in the Greek word for conversation, and stipulates that only through conversation can one genuinely discover what each thing is (Republic 533b).

[15] Under international law, every use of forcemust be judged twice: once with regard to the underlying right to wage war (jus ad bellum) and once to the means used in conducting a war (jus in bello). Following the Kellogg-Briand Pact of 1928 and the United Nations Charter, there can be absolutely no right to aggressive war. However, the long-standing customary right of post-attack self-defense remains codified at Article 51 of the UN Charter. Similarly, subject to conformance, inter alia, with jus in bello criteria, certain instances of humanitarian intervention and collective security operations may also be consistent with jus ad bellum. The law of war, the rules of jus in bello, comprise: (1) laws on weapons; (2) laws on warfare; and (3) humanitarian rules. Codified primarily at The Hague and Geneva Conventions, these rules attempt to bring discrimination (aka distinction), proportionality and military necessity into belligerent calculations.

[16] International law is always part of the law of the United States. For early decisions on the US incorporation of authoritative international law by Chief Justice John Marshall, see: The Antelope, 23 U.S. (10 Wheat.) 66, 120 (1825); The Nereide, 13 U.S. (9 Cranch) 388, 423 (1815); Rose v. Himely, 8 U.S. (4 Cranch) 241, 277 (1808) and Murray v. The Schooner Charming Betsy, 6 U.S. (2 Cranch) 64, 118 (1804).

[17] Is it an end that draws near, inquires Karl Jaspers in Man in the Modern Age (1951) or a beginning.

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AUKUS, a Reshuffle for International Security and the End of NATO? - Modern Diplomacy

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