Monthly Archives: April 2021

Did Russia's GRU military intelligence service pay the Taliban bounties to kill American military personnel in Afghanistan? It's unclear. The intelligence community has given neither former President Donald Trump or President Joe Biden a high confidence assessment that such incidents occurred. But that's not the end of the story.

For the CIA in particular, this is very much an open matter.

Primarily responsible for the collection of human intelligence, the CIA has moderate confidence that a compartmentalized unit of the GRU did indeed pay bounties for the explicit purpose of killing Americans. I'm led to believe that the CIA's basis for this assessment has five key foundations.

First, information gathered from detainee interviews and related U.S. military operations in Afghanistan.

Second, detected financial flows between the GRU, its intermediaries, and Taliban officers.

Third, highly sensitive and reliable reporting from agents (human sources) inside and outside of the Taliban network (some of this reporting is so sensitive that the CIA delayed sharing it with America's closest foreign partners).

Fourth, assessment of the GRU's established covert actions in Afghanistan. It has previously been established with high confidence, for example, that the GRU has supported active combat Taliban elements with funding, explicitly anti-U.S. tactical guidance, and weaponry.

Fifth, Vladimir Putin's particular ideological animus for the United States and historic animus over 1980s U.S. actions against the Soviet Union in Afghanistan. At least under its current chief, Igor Kostyukov, the GRU is a near-perfect physical manifestation of this anti-Americanism (in the coming days, I will report on another case of the GRU's exceptionally aggressive anti-U.S. activity).

In contrast, both the National Security Agency and the Defense Intelligence Agency, despite sharing the CIA's concerns over Russia's intelligence activity in Afghanistan, lack the independent intelligence reporting to corroborate the CIA's bounty assessment. The NSA is particularly relevant as pertaining to the intelligence community assessments previously given to Trump, and now, to Biden.

The NSA casts a wide net in terms of signal (phones, cyber, computers, etc.) intelligence collection targeting the Russian government. Were the bounties story legitimate, the NSA believes it would have intercepted, or at least detected, communications relating to such bounties. An important point to note here is that the NSA believes this, in spite of known Russian efforts to disrupt and misinform NSA collection activities. On the most sensitive Russian intelligence operations (as any bounties payments for American bodies would obviously be), Russian operatives take great pains to avoid communication not simply with Moscow but also with their relevant embassy stations. They do so not simply to avoid being caught but to avoid being caught up in the NSA's exceptionally capable metadata mining and profiling software. From Putin on down, Russian officials also regularly share fictions on encrypted lines they believe the NSA may have penetrated.

Top line: I understand that the NSA does not currently have evidence of GRU officers credibly talking about paying the Taliban to kill Americans. Nor does the NSA have more tangential data-based evidence, such as detection of burner cellphones used by compartmentalized GRU officers in proximity to burner cellphones used by Taliban officers responsible for U.S.-targeting efforts (this contrasts, for example, with the NSA's dead-to-rights evidence against the Russian FSB in the aftermath of its bungled August 2020 assassination attempt against Alexei Navalny).

This separation between the CIA and NSA is important. To guard against groupthink and confirmation bias (see weapons of mass destruction, circa 2003), the NSA must base its intelligence assessments on its own collection activities, not on what it wants to find.

This leaves the bounties story as an open case that lacks the evidence to justify presidential-level policy responses.

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Inside the CIA and NSA disagreement over Russian bounties story - Washington Examiner

At a glance.

NSA along with the FBI and Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency published a Cybersecurity Advisory warning that Russias Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR), also known as Cozy Bear, is actively exploiting five vulnerabilities in US and allies networks. The agencies urge immediate investigation and remediation, cautioning that Cozys favorite techniques include exploiting public-facing applications, leveraging external remote services, compromising supply chains, using valid accounts, exploiting software for credential access, and forging web credentials.

Meanwhile, the Biden Administration is preparing to formally attribute Holiday Bears supply chain gambit to the SVR, then in response to the campaign and other recent Russian misbehavior, expel ten diplomats and broaden financial sanctions via executive order, according to the Wall Street Journal. The order will strengthen current bans on trading in Russian government debt by barring U.S. financial institutions from buying new bonds directly from Russias central bank, finance ministry and the countrys massive sovereign-wealth fund after June 14. The announcement of this and other sanctions was made this morning from the White House.

Daniel Castro, Vice President of the Information Technology and Innovation Foundation, offered some early industry reaction to the measures announced today. He gives it generally favorable reviews:

"Today the United States hit reset on the nations cybersecurity policy. Bidens job is to make Putin and others realize the Trump era is over and there is a new sheriff in town. With todays announcement, hes off to a good start. The question is now whether the United States and its allies can consistently impose significant and proportionate costs on nations that engage in or support cyberattacks that undermine global security.

"The actions announced today will position the United States and its allies to be more prepared for future attacks. A key part of this strategy is better attribution to reliably identify the source of attacks. But it remains to be seen whether better attribution will cause Russia or China to change tactics. Put simply, a name and shame approach wont work on the shameless, and both Russia and China have brazenly engaged in state-backed cyberattacks in recent years.

"The Biden administration should hope for the best but prepare for the worst, including deploying offensive countermeasures to respond to future incidents of state-backed cyberattacks and expanding its investment in defensive cybersecurity technologies and capabilities."

FCW clarifies that NSA Director Nakasone is not, in his words at the Senate Intelligence Committee hearing on the Intelligence Communitys Annual Threat Assessment, seeking legal authorities either for NSA or for US Cyber Command in response to Cozy Bears gambol. Nakasone did not make clear, however, what remedy he is seeking to the oft-touted blind spots in domestic networks, though he did reiterate that private sector incentives stymie information sharing. FCW notes that the Directors responses seemed to frustrate lawmakers, who for months have pressedfor direct and expedient answers on how to prevent another intrusion.

Nextgovs impression was that improved public-private partnership was indeed the recommended solution. While lending support to breach notification regulation, Senator Wyden (Democrat of Oregon) countered that Federal agencies have work of their own to do first, since the intrusion also went undetected on fully visible Government networks.

The World Economic Forum and Deloitte bring us a report intended to establish cyber standards for the aviation sector. Pathways Towards a Cyber Resilient Aviation Industry suggests the following global, domestic, and organizational strategies:

The document marks aviations crucial role in vaccine transport and the accompanying risk of targeted cyberattacks.

National Defense addresses common CMMC questions. The Industrial Association cleared up the following: Vendors should feel free to ignore the word pilot. It refers to all CMMC contracts through 2026. Theres no public record of pathfinder contracts or scheduled assessments of Third Party Assessor Organizations. Processing time for Level Three compliance will hang on factors like size and present compliance.

Current contracts are not affected, only new or amended ones. Just one assessment is needed per organization. Compliance could be very expensive, and who should cover the costs is hotly debated. There are worries that the new requirements will be impossible for some organizations. Theres concern that vendors wont have time to review CMMC rules with subcontractors. Its not clear what will happen if subcontractors cant comply.

CMMC does cover foreign vendors, but any suppliers of commercial-off-the-shelf goods that manage no controlled unclassified information (CUI) neednt apply. CUI standards are less rigorous than those for confidential information. What counts as CUI is unclear: some think it must originate from the Government, others, that it can be developed down the line.

Reuters reports that the Cyberspace Administration of China has set up a tip line for residents to report online posts disparaging the CCP in the run up to the partys one hundredth anniversary this summer. Casting anyone who distorts history, insults leaders and heroes, or rejects the excellence of advanced socialist culture as historical nihilists, the regulator encouraged the public to actively play their part in supervising societyand enthusiastically report harmful information. Beijing typically ramps up censorship in advance of national occasions; critics risk jail time.

Link:
Shame on you, Cozy Bear. Domestic surveillance authority. Aviation cyber resilience. Working with CMMC. Beijing doesn't like "historical...

Walter Pincusis a contributing senior national security columnist for The Cipher Brief. He spent forty years at The Washington Post, writing on topics from nuclear weapons to politics.

OPINION Last week, the Senate and House Intelligence Committees each held their Worldwide Threats hearings with Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines, CIA Director William Burns, FBI Director Christopher Wray, NSA Director Gen. Paul Nakasone, and DIA Director Lt. Gen. Scott Berrier there to answer members questions.

More than one past DNI and CIA Director has complained privately to me that Intelligence Committee public sessions are, and should be, forums to discuss serious issues, but that they are more often used by members for political purposes or to air an individual legislators personal gripes. The closed, classified sessions that always follow the open ones Im told were most of the time focused on serious problems, since there were no reporters or TV cameras present.

Last weeks sessions should have been the time for members to take up issues raised in the National Intelligence Councils Global Trends 2040, and several Senate and House members did, especially on climate change.

But several Republicans, including Ranking Member Rep. Devin Nunes (R-Calif.), made it appear that the greatest threats to the American people come from the FBI, the CIA and the NSA.

Nunes started off by attacking the committee press release that announced the hearing, which said the Trump administration refused to participate in open hearings because President Trump allegedly did not want intelligence agency directors contradicting his views of rival, foreign nations. The real reason Trump officials did not want to participate is that for years the committees Democrats hijacked our open hearings to advance conspiracy theories on the Trump administration being filled with Russian agents who colluded with Putin, and the 2016 election, among many other issues, said Nunes.

Addressing the IC leaders seated before him, Nunes said, I hope you plan on spending a reasonable amount of time in upcoming years on activities other than investigating conservatives and spying on Republican presidential campaigns.

That pretty much set the pattern for many of the Republican members who followed.

Nunes also questioned Gen. Nakasone on why Michael Ellis, a last-minute Trump appointee to be NSA General Counsel, had been put on administrative leave while the Defense Department investigated his getting the job and possible misuse of classified information. The Ellis matter was picked up 15 minutes later by Rep. Michael Turner (R-Ohio), and a third time one hour later by Rep. Trent Kelly (R-Miss.). On Friday, Ellis resigned from NSA, writing that there was no sign that NSA will attempt to resolve his issues.

Rep. Kelly also used his time to accuse the CIA of spying on Congress. He introduced a John Solomon story from Just the News put out the morning of the hearing. It began:Imaad Zuberi, a major Democratic fundraiser facing 12 years in prison, has filed an extraordinary complaint with the CIAs chief watchdog [CIA Inspector General] alleging he witnessed flagrant problems, abuses, violations of law while working as an asset for U.S. intelligence, according to documents and interviews. Avril Haines told the committee she knew nothing about it. CIA Director Burns said he just heard about it that morning and that it was being investigated.

Some 20 minutes later, Rep. Chris Stewart (R-Utah) asked DNI Haines, Do you think the CIA should be spying on American citizens? She said no, and both CIA Director Burns and NSA Director Nakasone agreed. Stewart then stated, Its very clear the IC has no authority to turn your tools or your resources on American citizens. Stewart then referred to the four-page DNI report on domestic terrorism that Nunes had mentioned earlier, and argued that it represented collecting intelligence against Americans.

When Haines pointed out the National Counter Terrorism Center, a part of the DNI, has legal authority to receive domestic and foreign intelligence, analyze and produce such reports for policymakers, Stewart responded, I think the American people should be scared to death of this.

Rep. Brad Wenstrup (R-Ohio) raised with FBI Director Christopher Wray the June 14, 2017, shooters attack on some 24 GOP Congressmen preparing for the annual baseball game at a field in Alexandria, Va. Wenstrup said, That event concerns me just as much as the January event here at the Capitol. The Congressman, who was one of the members at the practice that day, described the shooter, James Thomas Hodgkinson, as anti-Trump and a Bernie Sanders supporter who had spent months planning the attack.

Closing his five minutes, Wenstrup said he had adored and trusted the FBI based on growing up watching the TV program on the Bureau starring Efrem Zimbalist Jr. He then lectured Wray saying, You had the opportunity to clear the FBI reputation and establish trust with the American people. Instead, I am concerted it seems further degraded, and I would ask what do you intend to do about it the reputation of the FBI and the mistrust the American people have.

The House public hearings purpose was to cast light on present and future worldwide threats to the United States, for the benefit of the legislators and the American public. It went far afield, and in its way showed that this small part of the democratic process is not delivering the way it should.

Read more expert-driven national security opinions, perspectives analysis in The Cipher Brief

Read the rest here:
Congress' Failure to Inform on Worldwide Threats - The Cipher Brief

KANPUR: The Kanpur Nagar police will invoke the provisions of stringent National Security Act (NSA) against three persons arrested while carrying 265 Remdesivir injection vials on Thursday. The state government has instructed police to act tough against people who are black-marketing Covid-19 medicines, said a senior official at the city police commissionerate.

KANPUR: The Kanpur Nagar police will invoke the provisions of stringent National Security Act (NSA) against three persons arrested while carrying 265 Remdesivir injection vials on Thursday. The state government has instructed police to act tough against people who are black-marketing Covid-19 medicines, said a senior official at the city police commissionerate.

Its a crime against humanity and we will invoke NSA against the three persons arrested with Remdesivir injections on Thursday, police commissioner Asim Arun told TOI on Friday and added that no illegal activity would be tolerated in this time of crisis and would invite strictest punishment.

He said that the state government was fully committed to facilitating easy availability of vials and other Covid-related medicines to its people. Meanwhile, the STF sources said that their sleuths have been trying to crack the nexus to curb black- marketing of Covid vials. There were inputs that of the 265 Remdesivir injection vials were supposed to be supplied to local medicine dealers, besides Haryana resident Sachin Kumar.

We are zeroing in on the local pharma distributors, and expecting an early breakthrough. It also came to fore that the injections were sent to Kanpur local Mohan Soni by one Apoorva Mukherjee of West Bengal, who is associated with a pharma company. As Mohan was supposed to take back his Rs one lakh from Apoorva, the latter instead had sent him vials against the cash, the senior police official added.

To recall, the Kanpur unit of Special Task Force (STF) had on Thursday arrested three people with 265 Remdesivir injections meant for sale in blackmarket. Ramdesivir is a key medicine, used in the treatment of coronavirus. Taking advantage of the shortage, some people have been selling the medication at high prices. DCP South Raveena Tyagi had stated that one Prashant Shukla of Naubastas Pashupati Nagar and Baktauri Purwa resident Mohan Soni were initially arrested.

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