Monthly Archives: July 2020

Just like in 2016, a faction of the Republican party has emerged to try to defeat Donald Trump in the upcoming presidential election.

But unlike the last presidential race, where the effort never truly took off, this time those rebel Republicans have formed better organized groups and some are even openly backing Trumps Democratic opponent, Joe Biden.

In 2016, as Trump steamrolled his way through the Republican primary, some Republican lawmakers and operatives tried to mount an effort to stop him. Elected officials and veterans of previous Republican administrations organized letters, endorsed Hillary Clinton, and a few set up meager outside groups to defeat Trump.

Thats happening again but there are differences. The outside groups are more numerous and better organized, and most importantly, Trump has a governing record on which Republicans can use to decide whether to support him or not.

I think its qualitatively different, said Republican operative Tim Miller, who co-founded one of the main anti-Trump organizations. A lot of people who opposed [Trump] did the whole, Oh, Hillarys also bad, and Trumps bad, and everybody can vote their conscience kind of thing.

Miller said that 2016s effort was far more of a pox on both your houses phenomenon versus 2020s organized effort to defeat him.

The latest prominent Republican anti-Trump organization made its debut in early July. Its a Super Pac called 43 Alumni for Biden, and aims to rally alumni of George W Bushs administration to support the Democrat.

The new Super Pac was co-founded by Kristopher Purcell, a former Bush administration official; John Farner, who worked in the commerce department during the Bush administration; and Karen Kirksey, another longtime Republican operative. Kirksey is the Super Pacs director.

Were truly a grassroots organization. Our goal is to do whatever we can to elect Joe Biden as president, said Farner.

The Super Pac is still in its early stages and isnt setting expectations on raising something like $20m. Rather, 43 Alumni for Biden is just focused on organizing.

After seeing three and a half years of chaos and incompetence and division, a lot of people have just been pushed to say, We have got to do something else, Purcell said. We may not be fully on board with the Democratic agenda, but this is a one-issue election. Are you for Donald Trump, or are you for America.

This is a one-issue election. Are you for Trump, or are you for America?

43 Alumni for Biden is new compared with two other larger anti-Republican groups.

The best-knownis the Lincoln Project, a political action committee founded in 2019 by Republican strategists who have long been critical of Trump.

The Lincoln Project has made a name for itself for its creative anti-Trump ads. It has also brought on veteran Republican strategists like Stu Stevens, a top adviser for now-Utah senator Mitt Romneys 2012 presidential campaign. George Conway, the husband of Trump adviser Kellyanne Conway, is also a co-founder of the group.

Unlike other anti-Trump groups, the Lincoln Project has weighed in to Senate races and has begun endorsing Senate candidates. It has backed the Montana governor, Steve Bullock, in his Senate bid against the sitting Republican Steve Daines.

Then theres Republican Voters Against Trump, a group led by Bill Kristol, a well-known neoconservative and former chief of staff to then vice-president Dan Quayle, and Republican consultants Sarah Longwell and Tim Miller.

That group is focused on organizing anti-Trump Republicans.

Lincoln is doing two things really well. One is narrative-setting, and just beating Trump over the head with hard-hitting attacks, Miller said. And theyre also working on Senate races, which were not doing. I think that, frankly, theyre bringing the sledgehammer and working on Senate races, and we are elevating these peer voices in a way to persuade voters.

A set of Republican national security officials has also emerged in opposition to Trump.

That group hasnt given itself a name yet, and includes the former Bush homeland security adviser Ken Wainstein, and John Bellinger III, who served in the state department. The group is looking to rally national security officials away from Trump either by supporting Biden or writing in someone else.

Even with all the organizing by these groups, theres still the persistent fact that swaths of former Republican officials and operatives methodically endorsed Hillary Clinton in 2016, and since then Trump has enjoyed sky-high approval ratings among the Republican party electorate.

But these groups say that was a result of Americans having not yet experienced a Trump presidency. They also say that the reason elected officials arent coming out to support Biden is because theyre worried about the blowback.

Colleen Graffey, part of the national security group of Republicans opposing Trump, said the reason some elected Republican officials arent coming out to oppose Trump publicly is because theyre scared.

Theyre worried theyre going to be primaried, Graffey said. Theyre worried theyre going to be tweeted, if that can be a weaponized verb.

Asked what his big fear is now, Farner said its that Republicans wont come out to vote at all.

My fear is that they will not come out and vote. And were here to say that its OK. Were putting ourselves out here too, Farner said. Its OK.

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'We've got to do something': Republican rebels come together to take on Trump - The Guardian

You see the convention go to another state and you know theyre going to reap the benefits, and we desperately needed that, said Elaine Wordsworth, whose husband, Steve Wordsworth, is a North Carolina businessman who has donated generously to Mr. Trumps re-election fund.

Indeed, when Jacksonville was selected as the host city for the convention in June, the news was seen by leaders there as a huge financial shot in the arm for a second-tier city that would never have been considered for such a role under normal circumstances. The average economic impact of hosting a convention for the local economy is about $200 million, and officials in Jacksonville initially estimated that even a hurried version of the Republican event would bring in at least half of that.

But now, many of the people involved in the process in Jacksonville are beginning to feel like the dog that caught the car. About 58 percent of registered voters in Duval County, which encompasses Jacksonville, say they are opposed to the city hosting the mass gathering, according to a new poll from the University of North Florida, which also showed that 71 percent of voters said they were at least somewhat concerned about transmission of coronavirus.

For Republican officials, untangling the financial knot from the Charlotte convention remains a work in progress. Given the contracts that had been signed and the many parties around the table including the local host committee, the R.N.C. and the city itself, among others concerns about potential legal action have figured into managing the fallout, several people connected to the process said.

Patrick Baker, Charlottes city attorney, said in an interview that the city itself had spent roughly $14 million preparing for the convention. Much of that went toward insurance and security costs, he said, and the city expected to be reimbursed in full through a federal grant from the Justice Department.

The focus of the City Council has been to make sure, at a minimum, that were made whole and not left holding the bag, Mr. Baker said.

The Charlotte program has been scaled back to the bare minimum. Only the 168 national committeemen are expected to visit Charlotte. While there, they will attend meetings at one hotel and then take a bus together to the airport, where they will board a chartered plane and fly to Jacksonville for the remainder of the convention, according to someone briefed on the plans.

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How the Republican Convention Created Money Woes in Two Cities - The New York Times

A Kansas newspaper whose publisher is a county Republican chairman posted a cartoon on its Facebook page likening an order from the states governor requiring people to wear masks in public to the round-up and murder of millions of Jews during the Holocaust.

The cartoon on the Anderson County Reviews Facebook page depicts Democratic governor Laura Kelly wearing a mask with a Jewish Star of David on it, next to people being loaded on to train cars. Its caption is: Lockdown Laura says: Put on your mask ... and step on to the cattle car.

The newspaper posted the cartoon on Friday, the day Kellys mask order took effect. It drew several hundred comments, many strongly critical.

Publisher Dane Hicks, who is also Anderson countys Republican party chairman, said he would answer questions once he could reach a computer. His newspaper is based in the county seat of Garnett, about 65 miles south-west of Kansas City. It has a circulation of about 2,100, according to the Kansas Press Association.

Kelly, who is Catholic, issued a statement saying: Mr Hicks decision to publish antisemitic imagery is deeply offensive and he should remove it immediately.

Kansas Senate minority leader Anthony Hensley, a Democrat, called the cartoon appalling and disgusting and said anyone connected to its posting should be fired.

Rabbi Moti Rieber, executive director of Kansas Interfaith Action, said most if not all comparisons of current events to the Holocaust are odious and said it was incoherent to equate the masks order, an action designed to save lives, with mass murder.

Finally, he said, putting the Star of David on Kellys mask was antisemitic because it implies nefarious Jews are behind her actions.

This thing is like the trifecta of garbage, Rieber said, calling on Republican leaders to repudiate the cartoon and Hicks.

Some Republicans have criticized Kellys order for infringing on personal liberties, though Kansas law allows counties to opt out and Anderson county has done so.

The governor issued the order because of a resurgence in coronavirus cases that increased the states total to nearly 16,000 as of Friday, when Kansas finished its worst two-week rise since the pandemic began. The state has reported 277 Covid-19-related deaths.

The number of infections is thought to be far higher because many people have not been tested, and studies suggest people can be infected without feeling sick.

State Republican chairman Mike Kuckelman was spending the Fourth of July in the Missouri Ozarks and did not immediately respond to a text seeking comment.

Hicks previously criticized Kelly in a blogpost for taking a one-size-fits-all approach to reopening what he called the states bureaucracy-hammered economy.

Kelly lifted statewide restrictions on businesses and public gatherings on 26 May, after weeks of criticism from the Republican-controlled state legislature. Some conservative lawmakers have accused her of being heavy handed and dictatorial.

Anderson county, with about 7,900 residents, is part of a conservative swath of eastern Kansas. Republicans outnumber Democrats two to one and Donald Trump carried it with nearly 73% of the vote in 2016.

The state health department has reported four coronavirus cases for Anderson county, all since 8 May. There have been no reported deaths there.

County commission chairman Jerry Howarter said of the more than 70 people who showed up to its meeting on the mask mandate on Friday, all but one opposed it. He said he had not seen the cartoon.

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Kansas paper published by Republican posts cartoon likening masks order to Holocaust - The Guardian

That's why it's perhaps surprising that Republican voters and lawmakers have been disagreeing with Trump quite a bit lately.

This follows what happened in North Carolina a little more than a week ago. Trump (and Trump chief of staff Mark Meadows) endorsed Lynda Bennett, but she didn't come close to winning. Instead, it was political newcomer Madison Cawthorn who earned the Republican nomination.

Any of these losses on their own wouldn't be noteworthy, and none of the winning candidates were anti-Trump. Still, it's quite unusual for an incumbent president to support three primary losers in about a three-week period. Just being pro-Trump is not enough to survive.

If nothing else, these defeats show a President who is perhaps not as in touch with his constituents as we might have believed.

Republican lawmakers, too, have shown a willingness to buck Trump a number of times over the past few weeks.

These rebukes of the President should not be seen as campaign-altering events for 2020. Trump still enjoys a lot of support from Republicans in and out of Washington.

For a President who will need to squeeze every bit possible out of the Republican base, any defections are damaging. There seems to be more of a willingness for Republicans to do that lately.

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Trump's on a losing streak with Republicans - CNN

Deeply conservative Oklahoma narrowly approved a ballot initiative Tuesday to expand Medicaid to nearly 200,000 low-income adults, the first state to do so in the midst of the coronavirus pandemic.

The vote to expand the Affordable Care Acts reach once again put voters, many of them conservative, at odds with Republican leaders, who have worked to block it or invalidate it. Five states Maine, Utah, Idaho, Nebraska, and now Oklahoma have used ballot initiatives to expand Medicaid after their Republican governors refused to do so.

Oklahoma pushed the G.O.P. over a notable threshold: Most congressional Republicans now represent Medicaid-expansion states. The vote also came at a striking moment, less than a week after the Trump administration asked the Supreme Court to overturn the entirety of Obamacare including Medicaid expansion.

What we saw last night was Medicaid expansion triumph over party and ideology, said Jonathan Schleifer, executive director of the Fairness Project, which has helped organize all the Medicaid votes. Oklahoma voted for Medicaid expansion even as Trump is doubling down on repeal.

Medicaid expansion could spread further into Republican-controlled states this year, as they weigh how to cover the many unemployed Americans expected to lose health insurance along with their jobs. Missouri voters will decide on a ballot initiative at the states August primary. If it passes, it will expand Obamacare coverage to 217,000 low-income people.

Some Wyoming legislators recently took a fresh look at the program, too, as they watched job losses mount. Ive voted against it about 10 times, never voted for it, said the states House speaker, Steve Harshman, a Republican. Now Im thinking of our work force. Were a mineral and oil kind of state. Thats a lot of able-bodied adults in a lot of industries who will probably need some coverage.

Mr. Harshman voted in May to have a legislative committee study the topic, but he does not expect any action until the bodys next session begins in January.

Medicaid expansion has proved an especially resilient part of the health care law, despite early challenges. The program, which provides coverage to Americans earning less than 133 percent of the federal poverty line (about $16,970 for an individual), was initially meant to serve all 50 states.

But in a 2012 ruling, the Supreme Court declared that states could decline to participate. The program began in 2014 with about half of the states, mostly run by Democratic governors.

That figure has grown to 37 states and the District of Columbia, as more Republican-controlled states have signed on. Many academic studies have found that the program increases enrollees access to medical care. A more limited body of research shows that the program also reduces mortality rates.

The program still faces threats, most significantly the Trump administration lawsuit to overturn the health law. The Department of Justice, alongside a coalition of 20 Republican-controlled states, submitted briefs to the Supreme Court last week arguing that the recent repeal of the individual mandate, which required all Americans to carry health coverage or pay a fine, made the entire law unconstitutional.

President Trump has found strong support in Oklahoma; he took 65 percent of the vote there in 2016 in a 36-point victory, and recently held a campaign rally in Tulsa, his first since the start of the pandemic.

Still, voters there broke with him on this issue, albeit by the margin of one percentage point. The ballot initiative drew 30,000 more voters than the states Senate primaries, suggesting that some Oklahomans came out specifically to support the insurance expansion.

Oklahoma is an awfully red state, said Adam Searing, an associate professor at Georgetown University who has tracked the states ballot effort. Its very conservative, very rural. To have it pass there is quite significant.

Oklahomas Republican leadership had opposed Medicaid expansion and initially offered more limited alternatives. Gov. Kevin Stitt outlined a program in January in which new low-income enrollees would pay modest premiums and be required to work to gain coverage.

He went on to veto that program, after the legislature secured its funding.

Oklahoma was also the first state to ask the Trump administration for permission to convert its Medicaid program to block grant funding, an idea strongly pushed by Mr. Trumps health appointees. The state would receive a lump-sum payment from the federal government to run the program with additional flexibility. Opponents of that proposal worry that such a funding formula could struggle to keep up with increased enrollment in an economic downturn.

Oklahoma submitted its application in April, and the Trump administration had not issued a decision before the Tuesday vote.

Oklahomas ballot initiative is notable in being the first to add the Medicaid expansion to the states Constitution. That will make it hard for Governor Stitt and the Republican-controlled legislature to tinker with or block the program, as other governors have sought to do in the wake of successful ballot initiatives. Most notably, when Paul LePage was governor of Maine, he declared he would go to jail before implementing the states Medicaid ballot initiative. The situation was resolved when a Democratic governor was elected and set up the coverage expansion.

In Oklahoma, ballot organizers can pursue either statutory or constitutional initiatives. The latter have more staying power but also require gathering twice as many signatures. Amber England, who led the ballot effort, felt the additional work was worth it.

If were going to ask people to get clipboards and pens, and gather signatures, we want to make the policy as strong as possible, she said. It was important that we protect Oklahomans access to health with the Constitution. We didnt want politicians to be able to take that right away.

Missouri will be the next state to vote on Medicaid expansion, in its Aug. 4 primary. The state is a party to the Trump administrations case against Obamacare. Gov. Michael Parson, a Republican, has publicly opposed that ballot initiative, which he argues is too costly in the midst of an economic downturn. Missouri would need to cover 10 percent of new Medicaid enrollees bills, with the federal government paying the other 90 percent.

I dont think its the time to be expanding anything in the state of Missouri right now, Mr. Parson told a local television station in early May. Theres absolutely not going to be any extra money whatsoever.

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Republican Leaders Want to End Obamacare. Their Voters Are Expanding It. - The New York Times

WASHINGTON (AP) In Republican circles -- with the notable exception of the man who leads the party -- the debate about masks is over: Its time to put one on.

As a surge of infections hammers the South and West, GOP officials are pushing back against the notion that masks are about politics, as President Donald Trump suggests, and telling Americans they can help save lives.

Sen. Lamar Alexander, a Tennessee Republican, on Tuesday bluntly called on Trump to start wearing a mask, at least some of the time, to set a good example.

Unfortunately, this simple, lifesaving practice has become part of a political debate that says: If youre for Trump, you dont wear a mask. If youre against Trump, you do, Alexander said.

Its a rare break for Republicans from Trump, who earlier this month told the Wall Street Journal that some people wear masks simply to show that they disapprove of him. And the Republican nudges for the public -- and the president -- to embrace mask-wearing are coming from all corners of Trumps party and even from friendly conservative media.

Both Vice President Mike Pence and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell in recent days have urged Americans to wear one when they are unable to maintain social distance. Sen. Mitt Romney, a Utah Republican, told reporters it would be very helpful for Trump to encourage mask usage.

Put on a mask -- its not complicated, McConnell, R-Ky., urged Americans during his weekly news conference Tuesday.

Last week, Republican Rep. Liz Cheney of Wyoming tweeted a photo of her father, former Vice President Dick Cheney, wearing a disposable mask and a cowboy hat. She included the message: Dick Cheney says WEAR A MASK #realmenwearmasks, a hashtag that echoed words spoken earlier by the Democratic House Speaker Nancy Pelosi.

Steve Doocy, co-host of a Trump friendly morning show Fox & Friends, said during an interview with House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy that he doesnt see any downside in the president being seen more often wearing it.

McCarthy, R-Calif., responded that, for the upcoming holiday, we could all show our patriotism with a red, white and blue mask.

Jacksonville, the Florida city where Trump is scheduled to accept his renomination as Republicans presidential candidate in August, announced a mask requirement for indoor public spaces this week. The presidents eldest son said the new requirements were no big deal.

You know, I dont think that its too complicated to wear a mask or wash your hands and follow basic hygiene protocols, Donald Trump Jr. told Fox Business on Tuesday.

Trump aides have defended the presidents refusal to wear a mask by noting that he is regularly tested for the coronavirus, as are his aides. Those outside the administration -- including White House visitors and members of the media who are in close proximity to him and Pence -- are also tested.

White House press secretary Kayleigh McEnany didnt directly address Republican calls for Trump to wear a mask in public more often, but noted that the president has said in the past he has no problem wearing one when necessary.

But even with safeguards, the virus has found its way into the White House. A top aide to Pence, as well as a military valet to Trump, in May tested positive for the virus.

Still, mask usage remains rare in the West Wing, said Rep. Brad Sherman, a California Democrat who attended an intelligence briefing at the White House on Tuesday with senior members of the presidents staff.

At the briefing, which he said included about eight White House staffers, only national security adviser Robert OBrien wore a mask, Sherman said. He added that no one in the secure briefing room was able to maintain 6 feet (1.8 meters) of social distancing, as recommended by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

I learned something major, and that is the White House is a mask-free zone, Sherman told The Associated Press. The president is consistent. Hes fine with people not wearing masks.

Polls show how the partisan divide on masks has seeped into public opinion.

The vast majority of Democrats think people in their community should wear a mask when they are near other people in public places at least most of the time, including 63% who say they should always, according to a Pew Research Center poll published in early June. Among Republicans, 29% say masks should be worn always, and 23% say they should be worn most of the time. Another 23% say masks should rarely or never be worn.

Trump has been caught on camera once wearing a mask. But Pence and members of the White House coronavirus task force frequently appear in public wearing masks.

If you want the return of college football this year, wear a face covering. If you want a chance at prom next spring, wear a face covering, Surgeon General Jerome Adams urged Americans.

Over the course of the crisis, the government has sent mixed messages on masks. As the first COVID-19 cases were identified on U.S. soil, top public health officials insisted masks should be reserved for front-line workers.

In early April, the CDC issued a recommendation that people wear cloth face coverings in public settings where other social distancing measures were difficult to maintain.

But Trump immediately undercut the CDC guidance by flatly stating that he wouldnt be following it, suggesting it would be unseemly for the commander in chief to wear one as he meets with heads of states.

Other world leaders, including Canadas Justin Trudeau and Frances Emmanuel Macron, have worn masks in public and urged their citizens to do the same when they cant maintain social distance

Lawrence Gostin, a public health expert at Georgetown University, says he worries Republican calls for wearing masks might be too late.

The public has received such mixed messages from the administration, Gostin said. I fear we may be stuck with coronavirus until it burns through the American population and leaves hundreds of thousands dead.

___

Associated Press writers Jill Colvin, Darlene Superville and Hannah Fingerhut in Washington contributed to this report.

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Republicans, with exception of Trump, now push mask-wearing - The Associated Press

The Republican Party is souring on experienced politicians. It is nominating and electing more and more congressional candidates who have not served in government. And experienced Republicans are more vulnerable than Democrats to challenges from populist outsiders.

Those are conclusions we reach after exploring data on how House candidates with and without prior office-holding experience fared in elections from 1990 to 2016, the most recent presidential election year. We hasten to say that we are not pioneers. The trends we found have been documented by other scholars, such as Sarah Treul and Rachel Porter in both an article and a research paper. We are especially grateful to Danielle Thomsen of the University of California, Irvine, who provided all of the data in this report.

Our dive into the data adds additional texture. It helps explain, we think, the increasingly insurgent, populist bent that the GOP was displaying well before Donald Trumps arrivaland will likely continue to display after he has left the scene.

Politics is a difficult job, and experience matters. It does not ensure competence, and it can breed complacency and corruption, but knowing the ropes in government, building political capital, and learning to navigate political cross-currents take time. For that reason, both partiestheir establishments and voters alikehave traditionally considered prior experience in office a plus when choosing candidates for Congress.

Still, there are lots of political newcomers entering House primaries. We find that 70% to 80% of primary candidates are what we will call inexperienced (or amateurs), meaning they lack prior experience in elective office. We contrast them with what we will call experienced candidates (or office-holders), candidates coming from other elective positions. (Thomsen uses Gary C. Jacobsons measure of candidate quality, indicating whether the candidate has ever held elective public office of any kind.) Over time, there has not been much change in the supply of newcomers in either party

But the demand for newcomers has been higher, in general, among Republicans than Democrats. As Figure 1 shows, amateurs have generally fared better against experienced candidates in Republican primaries than in Democratic primaries, especially during the period of the Republican revolution that swept the House into Republican hands in 1994. And in 2016, with a populist newcomer at the top of the ticket, Republican amateurs fared extraordinarily well, beating experienced nonincumbents in more than half of the primaries where they squared off.

Figure 1

The parties differential receptivity to amateurs flowed through to general elections (where, of course, the candidate pool reflects the results of the primaries). Figure 2 shows the number of Democratic newcomers to the House, including the shares with and without prior political experience. Except in 2006, a wave year for Democrats, office-holders commandingly dominate the Democratic freshman class. Democratic House leaders have been working with a steadily replenished supply of members with political chops.

Figure 2

Figure 3 shows Republican newcomers to the House. The Republican wave elections of 1994 and 2010 are very evident, bringing masses of new faces. Just as significant, Republicans almost always elected more amateurs than Democrats did, both in absolute numbers and as a proportion of each years freshman class.

Figure 3

Republicans predilection for amateurs grew especially pronounced the 2010s, when almost as many Republican freshmen were amateurs as office-holders; and in 2016, more than half of the GOP freshman class was inexperienced. Republican leaders thus found themselves working with a steady inflow of outsiders.

Political scientists have observed a growing gap in the characters of the two parties. The Democrats look more like a traditional coalitional party, promoting talent through its ranks and assembling support from its constellation of interest and identity groups. Republicans look more like an insurgent movement (as our Brookings colleague Thomas E. Mann and the American Enterprise Institutes Norman J. Ornstein argue), or an ideological movement (per Matt Grossman and David A. Hopkins), or elements of both. The data we presenttypical of a variety of indicia we looked atsupport their case. Among Republicans, both the supply of insurgent candidates and the demand for them is high and growing.

It is important to note that, in this century, insurgency has become a more common phenomenon in both parties. After spiking in the early 1990s, that rate was comparatively low, under 30 percent. But it soared in the most recent decade, to the point where half of House incumbents faced a primary challenge.

Within that general trend, however, the parties are again drifting apart. Figure 4 shows the likelihood that an incumbent in a battleground districtan incumbent where the margin in the most recent presidential race was 60-40 or closerwill face a primary challenge. These are the districts where party gatekeeping in primary matters most, because primary challenges could well cost the party the seat in the general election.

Figure 4

As the chart shows, in recent years Republicans have had much more difficulty than Democrats in preventing challenges to incumbents in battleground districts, and the gap has grown over time. In other words, Republicans have lost much of their ability to ward off primary bids by insurgents and outsiders in these key races. That may be because conservative activists have grown more extreme and insurgent, or because the party establishments have weakened, or, as we suspect, both.

Either way, the story all these data seem to tell is that a source of todays polarization is the Republican Partys base. Recent research by Ray La Raja and Zachary Albert likewise suggests that the Republican base is less willing to play ball with its party establishment than is the Democratic base.

All of which suggests that the Republican Party is growing more unruly and disruptiveharder to govern, and harder to govern with.

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How inexperienced candidates and primary challenges are making Republicans the protest party - Brookings Institution