Daily Archives: July 5, 2020

Bitcoin (BTC) has failed to challenge the multi-year resistance of $10,500 since the beginning of June 2020. This extended period of chop will ultimately result in one of two inevitable outcomes.

Either a massive green candle to catch bears off guard or a period of profit-taking that will see the leading digital crypto-asset fall to sub $8K levels in the coming weeks.

But what signs can we look out for to determine which direction the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization will go?

Daily crypto market performance. Source: Coin360.com

Using the Moving Average Divergence Convergence (MACD) indicator, which on the weekly chart has historically proven to be an incredibly accurate indicator for buying and selling Bitcoin, you can see that the blue MACD line is starting to point down toward the orange signal line.

Whenever the weekly MACD does this, it signals to investors and traders to either sell or short. In the early history of Bitcoin, both bullish MACD crosses (when the blue MACD line crosses up through the orange signal line) and bearish MACD crosses (what were seeing now) were infrequent they would occur once a year maybe twice.

BTC/USD 1-week chart. Source: TradingView

However, in the last 18 months, they crossed nine times, thats once every two months on average since the beginning of the 2018 bear market.

The last time Bitcoin crossed bearish on the MACD there was a whopping 57% decline in the price of Bitcoin almost immediately after they crossed. So are we in store for yet another pullback? According to the Fibonacci levels, this could put downside targets anywhere between $7,916 and $3,850.

BTC/USD 1-day chart. Source: TradingView

On the daily chart, things are not much clearer. Its evident from the chart that $10,400 is the resistance and $8,800 is the support. How long this range continues is anyone's guess.

However, the last time Bitcoin broke through this level, the price soared by a further 32.2%, at which point $10,400 became support several times before eventually continuing its downtrend.

Right now, Bitcoin is dangerously close to the support level, which happens to be the 236 Fib. Losing this level opens up $7,900 as the first downside target.

Conversely, should the bulls take control and push past the $10,400 resistance level, the upside from the current price of $9,040 is a staggering 56%. Quite the trade if you can pull it off, but one that first needs to wait for confirmation, and this could take not weeks, but months to play out.

BTC/USD 1-hour RSI chart Source: TradingView

On a more positive note, the 1-hour relative strength index (RSI) indicator shows that buyers stepped in as it approached oversold territory around 31.40. Keep in mind, that anything below 30 is considered a strong buy signal.

However, on the higher time frames between the 12h and monthly charts, the RSI is very much in the middle, providing no clue as to which way the market is going to go. Either the bulls will take charge and push up BTC price 50% or the bears will drive the price down by an equal percentage.

There is quite literally nothing on the charts that can give an indication with the exception of the bearish MACD. However, sideways action can cause the MACD to cross if it lasts long enough.

ASIC producers market share. Source: BitMEX

In a recent report published on the Bitmex Blog entitled Battle for Asic Supremacy, you can see that the previous leaders in ASIC production such as Bitmain are losing their dominance. Having once occupied a 75% market share, new stars like MicroBT are fast becoming the new dominant force in this space.

But with mining rewards recently being halved, this particular industry looks somewhat like a financial black hole. For example, Canaans share prices tanked by nearly 50% shortly after a $90m IPO last year, and relative newcomers Ebang are seemingly desperate for cash after having their Hong Kong IPO rejected in 2018. Now, these firms are seeking a cash injection on United States soil after recently filing for a U.S.-based IPO in April 2020.

The unsurprising lack of financial interest in these companies will almost certainly be playing a role in the current price of Bitcoin.

The question this leaves me with is this: if no one is making any money from Bitcoin, what happens next? Is this a bullish or bearish thing? To me, the answer seems obvious, it comes across as very bearish.

BTC/USD 1-hour chart Source: TradingView

Using the current Fib levels on the hourly chart, the key levels to claim are the 618 at $9,420 and the 100% at $9,800. After $9,800, the last area of heavy resistance sits at $10,400.

Using the same chart and Fib levels, $8,800 is where the first level of support will be found. Losing this level at this stage of the game would open up the 382 on the daily chart, which sits around $7,600.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of @officiallykeith and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.

The rest is here:
Bitcoin Price Consolidating But What Happens if $9K Support Is Lost? - Cointelegraph

A recent report from ZUBR Research explains that by 2028, retail demand for bitcoin will exceed the new supply. The report highlights that in eight years as Bitcoins supply rate decreases retail size addresses [will] begin to eat up all the new supply alone. Even the next halving in 2024 could see retail accounting for acquiring 50% of the bitcoins in circulation.

Not too long ago, cryptocurrency proponents witnessed the Bitcoin (BTC) networks third halving, which cut the block reward by 50% on May 11, 2020. Just before the third BTC halving, the active supply issuance or inflation rate was around 3.8%.

Today that number is steadily dropping and at the time of publication, BTCs inflation rate is 3.51%. On June 29, a research report published by ZUBR Research details that in eight years, retail demand will outshine the rate of issuance by a long shot.

The study called Retail Investors Steady in Physical Bitcoin Snatch-Up explains how the BTC network has entered the next reward era. With 90% of all Bitcoins already mined, the remaining supply is estimated to take nearly 120 years to come to market, ZUBR wrote. This figure the remaining 10% taking another 120 years shows just how scarce the cryptocurrency already is.

In time one of the great burdens will be liquidity and physical Bitcoins become harder to come by. The researchers findings also indicate that Covid-19 gave crypto proponents a glimpse at some potential scenarios. ZUBR Research also discussed the question of whether Bitcoin is a better version of gold or not.

The study says that investors will have to weigh this decision as demand has moved in decline for gold further extending that gap available on the market during the Covid-19 crisis. No doubt, Bitcoin saw strong demand in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic. The demand was similarly witnessed for gold, the report highlights.

ZUBR researchers add:

There is a very critical difference to gold, however. Bitcoin supply constraints will not be a result caused by black swan events (such as the global COVID-19 lockdown that shut-in mines), but the permanent perpetual nature of the store-of-value cryptocurrency that is designed to cut off new supply.

The study notes that the researchers leveraged data from the analytics firm Chainalysis. ZUBR predicts that retail demand will continue to grow this year and by 2028 the demand will be far greater than issuance.

Just like with gold markets, the demand for bitcoin while remaining scarce could send the price of BTC sky high. The next halving will sill a lot of retail and investor demand but the fifth halving will see uncontrollable buying pressure.

Extrapolating future demand at this pace points to a very dramatic shift in 2028 when Bitcoins supply rate further decreases and these retail size addresses begin to eat up all the new supply alone, ZUBR estimates. By the time the next reward era comes around in 2024, retail could potentially account for eating up over 50% of the physical supply, the researchers added.

The paper concludes by stressing:

With retail [investors] gunning hard, these supply constraints might come sooner rather than later should growth in demand from smaller investors remain as steady as it has in the past half-decade.

What do you think about the theory that retail demand will outshine bitcoin issuance in eight years? Let us know what you think about this subject in the comments section below.

Image Credits: Shutterstock, Pixabay, Wiki Commons, ZUBR Research

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only. It is not a direct offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell, or a recommendation or endorsement of any products, services, or companies. Bitcoin.com does not provide investment, tax, legal, or accounting advice. Neither the company nor the author is responsible, directly or indirectly, for any damage or loss caused or alleged to be caused by or in connection with the use of or reliance on any content, goods or services mentioned in this article.

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Demand for Bitcoin Will See a Dramatic Shift in 8 Years - Retail Investors to Eat up Entire New Supply | Economics - Bitcoin News

Data analyzing in trading market. Working set for analyzing financial statistics and analyzing a ... [+] market data. Data analyzing from charts and graph to find out the result.

Earlier today, Pfizer PFE reported that its early stage Covid-19 vaccine trials have produced optimistic results. The news sent equities and bitcoin higher, while dropping gold beneath the psychological $1,800 level.

Despite the Pfizer-led reprieve for bitcoin, its price movements since the halving have largely been disappointing, especially amidst the Feds extraordinary actions, which have benefited store of value assets like gold, historically.

The main question floating around the crypto investment world is, Why isnt price rising? Three possible explanations have floated to the top.

In 2019, a group called PlusToken, systemically scammed numerous investors throughout China to the total of more than 200,000 bitcoin, or ~ $1.84 billion, at the time of writing. Since then, the scammers have meticulously liquidated their ill-gotten gains on several exchanges. Liquidations have created a consistent and strong selling pressure to bitcoin according to notable fund manager, Travis Kling.

More true today than it was 6 months ago. https://t.co/1UW8J84wEQ

— Travis Kling (@Travis_Kling) June 24, 2020

However, as seen by todays price action, the correlation between the S&P 500 and bitcoin has been rising steadily as Covid-19 cases spike in several states. The popular bitcoin analyst, PlanB, has stated recently that equity correlation is driving bitcoin, not scammers. He further notes that I think it is a silly narrative. In the old days if traditional markets moved without news or cause, it was always "the hedge funds.

#bitcoin is down, and so is S&P500 .. "U.S. Stocks Tumble With Virus Threatening Economy". Just like June 11 and just like the month March. This has nothing to do with "Whales", "futures manipulation", "Plustoken scammers" etc etc. pic.twitter.com/K4ggl110TT

— PlanB (@100trillionUSD) June 24, 2020

Finally, others surmise bitcoin is a free market asset and naturally oscillates, which make correlations unstable and temporary over time. Popular crypto trader, Scott Melker, notes I do think that bitcoin has benefited from a bull market (equities) - that's just logical...but that does not mean that those assets have been correlated. He further states that if you have to make a comparison, I think a naked eye on the DXY (US Dollar Index) vs BTC chart is more compelling...clear inverse correlation.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/FRt9y4Lu/

While each faction believes their conclusions are the leading driver of bitcoins tepid movement, no one knows for certain given the unverified price effect of scammer sales, and inconsistent correlations between both equities and US dollar index to bitcoin.

https://coinmetrics.io/correlation-charts/#assets=btc-dxy,btc-s&p

Pragmatism would suggest that some combination of the aforementioned elements are driving bitcoin. However, only after time has passed and looking in hindsight, will readers know the dominant factor.

Disclosure: The author owns bitcoin and ethereum.

Read more:
Equities Buoy Bitcoin, But Price Headwinds Are Unchanged - Forbes

(Photo Illustration by Igor Golovniov/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images)

The financial space was rocked by the news that German fintech group Wirecard filed for insolvency owing 3.5bn. Not only a financial failure but also a seemingly elaborate and sophisticated fraud, according to EY, the companys auditor for more than a decade.

Many companies using Wirecards service would have been struck by the news, and would have had to hit the panic buttons, including a few crypto companies using Wirecard for their own card payment systems.

Already a difficult operation to get right, crypto payment, and crypto payment cards are only starting to make their way into the mainstream but it is instances like this that really hinder their potential and growth. Bitcoin has had a few changes in designation over the years, and as it stands, making it a payment system is harder than it once was.

The major cryptocurrency has undergone a number of evolutions in its some 11 years of existence. The digital currency began life as a medium for exchange in transactions, and found its first use when 10,000 BTC was traded for two pizzas (those pizzas are now worth just shy of $100 million).

But, just like the value of those two pizzas has changed, so has the designation of Bitcoin. The digital asset is today seen far more like an investable asset. Bitcoin is spoken about in the same breath as stocks and commodities and is permeating the conversations of Paul Tudor Jones and the execs at CME, Fidelity and other corners of Wall Street.

However, this fluid flow of Bitcoins designation may well be seeing a shift back towards acting like A Peer-to-Peer Electronic Cash System, as it is labelled in its own whitepaper. Recent news from Visa, PayPal and Venmo have many looking towards Bitcoin (or that should be cryptocurrencies, blockchain and the entire token ecosystem) for its potential in payments.

PayPal isrumouredto be rolling out direct sales of cryptocurrency to its over 300 million users, while it is posting job vacancies for blockchain experts. Visa has also started working towards the cryptocurrency space with apatentfor its own type of cryptocurrency, not to mention its support of the Coinbase cryptodebit card as a Visa Principal Member.

If there is indeed a move towards Bitcoin and crypto taking a new role in the evolving payments system, then the clues will probably be in the application. One of the biggest applications, and the possible bridge to the next evolution of payments, is the oldest, new, technology cards.

But, as therecent news surrounding Wirecardshows, this road for crypto cards is not an easy one. Just getting a foot in the traditional card scene can be difficult for Crypto payments solutions providers but then there are the companies that provide the payments railways to also consider.

The little pieces of plastic that nearly everyone carries around in their wallets are seen as so normal and so standard that little thought is given to their journey. However, debit and credit cards can be seen as the original fintech, and the original digitalization of cash.

This is why they are probably all the first place to look for the next iteration of digital cash and that could be crypto. I have already mentioned that Visa is doing a lot of work regarding crypto payments and tokenization, but its chief competitor Mastercard is not letting this new wave slip by.

I spoke with Suman Hughes, Director of Communications at Mastercard about their thoughts on cryptocurrency cards and the incorporation of crypto as a new payments system.

We see potential in cryptocurrency, especially in stablecoins. We have observed how using an internal stablecoin and tokenized fiat can improve settlement. We are driving the development of new products, including viable digital currencies that are safe, stable, reliable, and compliant, Hughes told me.

We are working with governments to explore Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs), which brings physical cash into the modern digital age. CBDCs can enable financial inclusion, increase the efficiency of payments infrastructure and reduce informal economies.

Unsurprisingly, the interest in the potential of crypto for a major payments network like Mastercard revolves around its potential for a broader application. CBDCs are certainly on the rise, and could become a standard implemented by governments, rolled out through the likes of MasterCard and into the hands of the individuals.

But, there is also no getting away from the original crypto space and those who are looking to utilize their decentralized coins and cryptos in a payments method. Coinbase,Foldand other big crypto companies have partnered with Visa and the likes to roll out cards, but there are others trying to compete.

I spoke with the CEO of Crypto.com, Kris Marszalek, a company looking to pioneer the way in regards to personal crypto payments cards. He explained how it is not a straightforward process to compete with the legacy payments networks, even if it is with a brand new technology.

Its definitely challenging for a crypto startup to roll out a card product that is ready for prime time, he told me. It needs to work well with traditional financial and payment networks, which means we have to partner with established players.

That was a judgment call we made from day one. We focused on compliance, security and privacy as the foundation on which the company should be built. Were building a globally trusted financial institution thats in the process of securing licenses in all major jurisdictions.

But we are also building for the future. Payment is always about adoption, from both a merchant and user standpoint.

It is not only difficult entering the legacy system of payment with new financial technology like Bitcoin, there are also the hurdles that come with some of these traditional companies. TheWirecard newshas rocked the financial world and with Crypto.com reliant on this company for its cards, they too were struck hard.

The FCA in the UK effectively shut down Crypto.comscard activityin the UK and Europe to try and stem the damage from Wirecards collapse, and forced Crypto.coms hand in looking for a new card service provider.

"The FCA effectively shut down Wirecard UK, the issuer of our cards in Europe. Our EU/UK cards will stop working today. All customers will receive 100% credit back to their crypto wallets within 48 hours. Were moving the card program to a new vendor, Marszalek tweeted following the news.

The latest on this saga for Crypto.com is that the FCA, the U.K. watchdog, has allowed Wirecard Card Solutions, a Newcastle-based subsidiary of troubled German company Wirecard AG, to resume regulated activity meaning that the cards from Crypto.com have been reactivated in the UK and Europe.

These kinds of events, while mostly a one-off and rare, do represent the other issues that crypto faces in trying to enter the mainstream. Payment systems are usually taken as impenetrable and as a given, but there are hidden dangers that can hold back the advancement of this space.

That being said, the future of crypto seems laid out, and on top of that, its future as a payments system is becoming more and more probable.

There are certainly tangible changes in the crypto space when it comes to payments, and how these payments will be enacted and rolled out. But there is also a long way to go. However, as Marszalek explains, the digital asset bridge has already been built by cards.

By 2030, every single person on the planet will hold digital assets one way or another. Our mission is simply to accelerate the worlds transition to cryptocurrency. Familiar form factors, like a card, play a very important role in educating main street users.

Still, Hughes explained that there are still a number of things that need to be overcome in the crypto space for payments to be normalised with these assets.

We strongly believe that for digital currencies to become trusted payment instruments for consumers or businesses, it is essential that they offer stability, regulatory compliance and consumer protections, she added.

See original here:
Bitcoin As A Payment System Crypto Cards And The Rocky Road They Travel - Forbes

The share price of Bitcoin (BTC) mining firms Riot Blockchain and Hive Blockchain has produced enormous year-to-dategains, with stock in Riot nearly doubling while Hives has tripled over 2020 so far.

However, not all mining firms have fared well throughout the COVID-19 pandemic, with Canaans stock falling nearly 70% since early January, and both Hut 8 and DMG Blockchain seeing scant YTD gains despite experiencing significant volatility this year.

While Bitcoin is up more than 26% from roughly $7,200 to $9,100 since the start of the year, the leading cryptocurrencys gains have been dramatically overshadowed by a handful of firms mining it.

Hive Blockchain has seen a dramatic performance this year, rallying more than 420% from the start of 2020 until mid-February, from $0.066 to $0.345. The firms shares crashed back to $0.118 over the next month as immediate economic fallout from the coronavirus took effect. However, an expansion that led toHive doublingits mining capacity saw its stock rebound to test the $0.033 area by mid-May.

HIVE/CAD 2020 YTD: Google

The firms shares have since fallen back to $0.228.

After starting the year trading for $1.22, Riot Blockchain shares rallied to $1.60 by mid-Februarybefore crashing to $0.65 in roughly one month. However, Riot produced a strong recovery, gaining over 375% to trade for $3.10 on June 10. The firms shares have since retraced to $2.29.

RIOT/CAD 2020 YTD: Google

Riots recovery may have been boosted by announcements in May that its mining revenues had grown 70% in the first quarter year-on-year, itsplans to roughly double its hash rate after Bitcoins block reward halving, and the dismissal of pump-and-dump complaints against the firm.

Riot also expanded its total hash rate capability after establishing a hosting arrangement for its Antminer S17s with fellow mining firm Coinmint in April after facing disruptions resulting from COVID-19.

However, the gains enjoyed by Riot and Hive are certainly not indicative of all miners, with Canaan suffering huge losses over 2020 so far.

After starting the year at $6.02, Canaan shed over a quarter of its value by mid-Feb when a sudden spike pushed prices up to $8.04 in a single day. Canaans stock then plummeted to $2.81 in mid-March, before embarking on a steady recovery to retest $6 two months later.

RIOT/USD 2020 YTD: Google

Since May 14, Canaans price has crashed by more than two-thirds to currently trade for $1.82.

While the YTD performance for Hut 8 and DMG Blockchain are currently sitting at an approximate break-even, both firms have seen extreme volatility during 2020.

HUT/CAD 2020 YTD: Google

Both Riot and DMG produced sudden spikes of over 60% in February followed by crashes of at least 60% by mid-March and a recovery back to trade at early-Januarylevels.

DMGI/CAD 2020 YTD: Google

Read more:
Stock in Crypto Mining Firms Riot and Hive Massively Outperforms Bitcoin - Cointelegraph

Since the end of 2017, the conventional thinking was that well-heeled financial institutions would take the reins from retail investors, becoming the driving force and primary investor class in crypto.

But areportout last week from derivatives exchange ZUBR argues retail investors are not just here to stay, they could end up absorbing more than half of bitcoins daily fresh supply in as little as four years.

Youre readingFirst Mover, CoinDesks daily markets newsletter. Assembled by the CoinDesk Markets Team, First Mover starts your day with the most up-to-date sentiment around crypto markets, which of course never close, putting in context every wild swing in bitcoin and more. We follow the money so you dont have to. You cansubscribe here.

By the time the next reward [halving] era comes around in 2024, retail could potentially account for eating up over 50% of the physical supply, the report predicts.

Using data from analytics firm Chainalysis, ZUBR found the number of wallet accounts holding small whole balances, anywhere between 1 to 10 bitcoins sizes that suggest retail rather than institutional had risen rapidly.

Since bitcoin hit its all-time high at the end of 2017, the number of retail wallet holders more than doubled, reaching 215,000 by the start of June 2020.

In total, these entities hold over 500,000 bitcoin (~$4.6 billion), up over 100,000 since the start of 2019.

On average, 144 bitcoin blocks are mined every day. After the next halving in 2024, about 450 bitcoin will enter circulation each day. Assuming demand continues at its present trajectory over the next four years, ZUBR estimates the amount of new bitcoins demanded daily by retail investors could be at around 250 well over half the daily supply four years from now.

And thats only wallet addresses with whole numbers. Adding in wallets with fractional balances and daily demand could be even higher. ZUBR also excluded crypto held in exchange accounts from its study.

At the start of the year, approximately 1,800 new bitcoins entered into circulation each day. Since the block reward fell from 12.5 to 6.25 in mid-May, the daily bitcoin supply has dropped to just 900.

Assuming the same level of mining activity, daily supply will likely fall down to just 225 bitcoin by the end of the decade.

These supply pressures make a highly bullish case for bitcoin, said Jason Deane, analyst atQuantum Economics.

Bitcoin has a perfect supply curve, total (maximum) supply is always known, and it can only be lower due to lost coins, he told CoinDesk.

Although bitcoins total supply stands at around 21 million, the estimated number of coins believed to have been lost or otherwise irrecoverable ranges between 1.5 million, according toCoinMetrics, or even as high as 4 million, according toUnchained Capital. That puts even greater pressure on supply.

But the real variable is demand. Should this continue to increase, there will come a point when it will outpace supply, causing bitcoins price to rise.

A rising price might help burnish bitcoins credentials as a store of value asset; possibly creating a virtuous circle where price increases help bolster the store of value narrative which, in turn, leads to further price increases.

Indeed, going back to ZUBRs research, this virtuous circle may already be present.

Since the start of 2020, balances for retail-sized entities have grown continuously month on month. Despite unprecedented market volatility bitcoins price fell nearly 40% in March there has not yet been a month so far this year where the total amount of bitcoin held in retail-sized wallets has decreased.

Zooming out, there hasnt been a month of net decline since April 2019. Going out even further, there have only been five months since the mining of the genesis block, more than 11 years ago, where the monthly amount of retail balances of bitcoin have decreased, rather than grown.

This natural hodling mentality might suggest that retail investors, as an investor class, see bitcoin as a natural store of value, rather than a medium of exchange, and are, therefore, hoarding as much as they can, anticipating further price increases.

Indeed, events such as Black Thursday on March 12, which temporarily took the bitcoin price down below $5,000, might have been seen more as a unique buying opportunity, rather than an existential threat to the cryptocurrency.

In fact, some institutions and brokeragestold CoinDeskat the time they were offloading as much of their bitcoin as possible onto retail investors, some buying for the first time, who were buying up to two to three times as much as they were normally.

According to Deane, this should come as no surprise. If you assume that demand is going to continue rising, just as daily supply continues to fall, its reasonable that retail investors may be buying in anticipation of further price hikes.

The market may soon be at the point where instead of dealing in bitcoins, many small-time traders will instead be buying in satoshis, bitcoins smallest divisible unit at approximately 0.00000001 BTC (currently around 0.009 of a cent).

Obtaining a whole bitcoin will be very difficult in the future and most people will only deal in satoshi, which will almost certainly become the norm, especially for individuals, Deane said.

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Bitcoin watch

BTC: Price: $9,106 (BPI) | 24-Hr High: $9,190 | 24-Hr Low: $9,025

Trend:Bitcoins price bounce from lows below $8,850 seen over the weekend has run out of steam, and the cryptocurrency looks vulnerable to deeper declines.

At press time, bitcoin is trading near $9,100, having faced rejection around $9,200 during Sundays U.S. trading hours.

On the hourly chart, a bearish trendline connecting the June 22 and June 24 highs is still intact. Meanwhile, the relative strength index (RSI) has fallen back into bearish territory below 50. The MACD, too, has crossed into the negative territory.

The same indicators are also reporting bearish conditions on the daily and three-day charts.

In addition, the weekly chart shows signs of uptrend exhaustion: Bitcoin has been above a trendline connecting the June 2019 and February 2020 highs (yellow line) for six weeks. Even so, buyers are failing to step in.

As a result, a retest of the weekend low of $8,830 cannot be ruled out. A violation there would expose deeper support levels lined up at $8,630 (May 24 low) and $8,638 (50-week moving average).

On the higher side, immediate resistance is seen at $9,172, the hourly charts bearish trendline. Above that, the focus would shift to $9,344 (a lower high on the hourly chart). The overall bias would turn bullish only after a move above $10,000.

The leader in blockchain news, CoinDesk is a media outlet that strives for the highest journalistic standards and abides by a strict set of editorial policies. CoinDesk is an independent operating subsidiary of Digital Currency Group, which invests in cryptocurrencies and blockchain startups.

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First Mover: The Return of the Bitcoin Retail Investor (and Why Thats a Good Thing) - CoinDesk - CoinDesk

Benjamin Lawsky, then-superintendent of the New York State Department of Financial Services, speaks ... [+] during a Senate hearing in April 2015. Lawsky now works at a company with ties to what appears to be a new leader in institutional cryptocurrency investing.

New York Digital Investment Group (NYDIG) today disclosed, in an SEC filing that it closed a $190 million bitcoin fund. The NYDIG Institutional Bitcoin Fund LP, reports that it has 24 unnamed investors and is exempt under Rule 506(b) of the Regulation D safe harbor protections established in 2013.

Notably, another NYDIG investment called the Bitcoin Strategy Fund was advised by Stone Ridge Asset Management LLC, a $15 billion advisor whose regulatory affairs boss Ben Lawsky, created the BitLicense granted to NYDIG in November 2018, less than a year after he was hired. Stone Ridge co-founder Robert Gutmann is listed as the CEO of NYDIG Execution LLC in a 2018 statement from the New York Department of financial services.

While details of the new fund are a mystery, it is notable for another reason. Last month, NYDIG announced it had closed another, similarly named fund for $140 million. If the fund, called the NYDIG Bitcoin Yield Enhancement Fund LP is in fact a different financial instrument, NYDIG has quietly become one of the largest institutional investors in bitcoin in the United States, with a total of $330 million in bitcoin between the two funds. A representative of NYDIG declined to comment.

The matter is further complicated by a name change to the NYDIG Institutional Bitcoin Fund LP, updated today, which was previously called the NYDIG Institutional Digital Asset Fund LP. While weve been unable to confirm the $190 million NYDIG Institutional Bitcoin Fund LP updated today and the $140 million NYDIG Bitcoin Yield Enhancement Fund LP closed last month are in fact different, other evidence supports they are.

Namely, the Institutional Bitcoin Fund made its first sale on October 26, 2018, according to todays documents, and the Bitcoin Yield Enhancement Fund started selling just a week before it closed. A third fund for bitcoin futures, called the Bitcoin Strategy Fund, is currently listed on Stone Ridges site under the ticker symbol, BTCNX.

Either way, the presence of a new major player in the institutional investing in bitcoin space is notable. To date, institutional investing in cryptocurrency has been largely dominated by Barry Silberts Grayscale, which has $4.0 billion in assets under management, with another new player, 3iQ announcing a smaller, but still significant $48 million exchange-traded product listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange.

Editors note: This story has been updated to show that NYDIG was granted its BitLicense after hiring Lawsky,

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$190 Million Bitcoin Fund Tied To Former Sheriff Of Wall Street Solidifies Role As Institutional Leader - Forbes

Bitcoin will soar to $500,000 because the US will start a war with Iran and Venezuela of the hash-rate rather than the military variety and the first salvoes may soon be fired, according to crypto analyst and TV personality Max Keiser.

In the latest episode of RTs Keiser Report, he predictsthat the Iranian and Venezuelan regimes will force the Trump administration to reluctantly embrace the top crypto.

With Iran potentiallycontrolling3% of the Bitcoin hash rate (the speed at which a given mining machine operates) alreadyand Venezuela acceptingbitcoin payments, albeit only briefly, it may only be a matter of time before the Americans decide they need to fight for supremacy on the crypto battlefield.

Iran has already got 3% of global hash rate, so now I think Venezuela will get 3%-5% pretty quickly, says Keiser, who has been imploring his viewers to invest in bitcoin since it was just $1.

And then at some point America will say, Weve got to enter the 21st-century space race of mining bitcoin, and then theyll try to seek 20% of the hash rate, and then security goes up dramatically, and the price goes to $400,000, $500,000.

Keisays says bitcoin represents the reformation of free speech, something governments deny citizens by controlling the currency they use.

Bitcoin is the Mona Lisa of the 21st century: Its self-aware, it is observing us through the quantum mechanical aspects of technology, and its channeling the eyes of God, he says.

So, this is God looking at us through the protocol and trying to figure out, How do we fix this human species because theyve gone way off track due to central banking?

The sharp contrast between the current situation in the macro markets and the plight of many Americans, exemplified in the Black Lives Matter protests, supports Keisers argument, Cointelegraph points out.

The stock markets are seeing their best quarter since 2011 against a backdrop of violent civil unrestacross the country, mass unemployment and the systematic debasement of the US dollar.

At the same time, the Federal Reserve has taken ownership of huge chunks of the equity markets, equal to 30% of US gross domestic product.

Keiser is passionately critical of the fiat currency system, which he says is a mechanism governments use to effectively steal from their citizens by reducing spending power and amassing debt through unconstrained money printing.

Last week, Keiserurged angry protesters to abandon their retaliatory tactics in favor of simply opting out of the fiat system by converting their US dollars, which he calls fiat debt-coupons, into bitcoin essentially turning the crypto into a fiscal weapon.

He says: The truth is, if you want individual sovereignty, if you want justice, if you want uncensorable, unconfiscatable, indestructible wealth, theres only one way to go and thats bitcoin.

Forbes journalist Roger Huang last week expressed a similar view, citing Asian examples of crypto facilitating civil disobedience: In a world being swept by protest, some of that potential is manifesting itself now.

Chinese netizenshave used ethereumto make sure that messages that would otherwise be censored in online protest could live as long as possible, secured by a network of coordinating nodes.

He adds, In Hong Kong, cryptocurrency has helpedfinance the distribution of suppliesto protesters and when protesters sought to switch out from Hong Kong dollars to demonstrate their opposition to the erosion of fundamental rights, some of them thought of bitcoin as an alternative.

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When Indias Supreme Court overturned the banking restrictions for crypto exchanges back in March, everything changed.

Since then, Binance joined the Internet and Mobile Association of India (IAMAI), which played a key role in overturning the ban, and noted explosive growth via WazirX, the Indian exchange Binance acquired in 2019. A WazirX spokesperson told CoinDesk the exchange saw 150% more signups in many Indian cities from February to May 2020, which boosted local trading volumes by 66%.

The Supreme Courts positive verdict has surely helped in creating positivity around crypto in India, the spokesperson said.

As part of that broader sentiment shift, prominent Indian economist Subhash Chandra Garg argued a digital rupee will replace physical paper rupee as currency. As the former executive director of the World Bank and former Indian finance secretary, Garg argued both that bitcoin is a global currency and that India should create a Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) that citizens can use with digital wallets.

Even beyond India, entrepreneurs like London-based Pavel Matveev of Wirex Ltd. are eager to expand in India.

Last November we launched our product in eight countries across Southeast Asia, and we are hoping to launch in India this summer, Matveev said in a phone interview. The United Kingdom for example has a huge remittance flow from the U.K. to India. [Indian demand for crypto] may be exhilarated by the COVID-19 situation.

Beyond boosting exchanges and remittances, Matic Network co-founder Sandeep Nailwal said theres been an uptick in the usage of decentralized applications (dapps). Within the first month of rolling out an Ethereum scaling solution, Nailwal said his startup garnered roughly 60 dapps and is currently in the process of onboarding another 60.

Especially with crypto, people are able to play games and earn money out of it. Real money games are becoming more popular, he said during a video call. Were seeing a lot of applications [rely on us] because Ethereum is completely choked up.

Nailwal added there are more tech workers in India, with more than 1 billion people, than the entire populations of some countries. Especially in tech hubs like Bangalore, there are plenty of technically skilled people willing to overcome the UX challenges that hinder mainstream users. So far at least 15 of the dapps using Matic also hail from India, Nailwal said.

This may be the summer of Ethereum in India.

India crypto revival

You will start seeing a large number of Indian applications being used, proportionately, Nailwal said about the rise of Indias Silicon Valley, Bangalore.

While government blockchain projects explore issues like food distribution, Nailwal said he is participating in a monthlong ETHIndia virtual hackathon, along with a few hundred developers. The ETHIndia Community Telegram group has roughly 931 members.

Plus, the Trump administrations hostile approach to foreign worker visas may inspire some Indian workers to build their careers in Indias tech industry instead. As the global recession worsens, India is now home to millions of people with diaspora connections and the computer skills to use cryptocurrency.

Unocoin exchange co-founder Sunny Ray said, now that a few of the Indian industrys major legal battles were won in court, exchanges are coming back from the dead.

Banking is back, the company is profitable again in less than two months, were hiring people back, Ray said about Unocoin reopening and serving thousands of active monthly users again. In total, the exchange has roughly 400,000 users that completed the know-your-customer process. Now Indian traders are barely getting started. The local market is slowly ramping up.

Unocoin co-founder Sathvik Vishwanath said the broader economic crisis has reduced expendable income and made Indians more conservative as unemployment spreads. According to the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy, the unemployment rate last month was over 22%. Instead of pre-coiners flocking to crypto, Vishwanath expects this crisis could have a delayed impact of inspiring more crypto-novices and day traders that start treating crypto as an investment.

Quiet bulls

Tech-savvy users may increase their crypto holdings, Vishwanath said, because any Indian household with expendable wealth is now thinking about diversification.

Kashif Raza, a co-founder of the Indian news startup Crypto Kanoon, said, People are finding crypto as an attractive proposition for hedging their risks, but still it is a long way [to go]. In the meantime, gold is often seen as the best way for Indian families to custody their own wealth. Indeed, the Indian gold market is booming and prices reached record highs in June.

One thing is clear post-COVID-19, that in both [urban and rural communities] gold is a perfect hedge during the crisis. The gold price has risen exponentially, Raza said in an email. There are many exchanges that have observed a spike in new registrations on their platform during the lockdown in India.

BTC and ETH surge

So far, Raza said, Indians staying indoors are online searching for new avenues of investment, then finding crypto after gold. Indeed, Ashish Singhal, the Bangalore-based CEO of both the crypto wallet CRUXPay and the exchange Coinswitch.co, said hes up to a total of 25,000 users since the coronavirus crisis began. More than half of the Indian users are women, he said.

The main cryptocurrencies are bitcoin and ether, Singhal said during a call. Exchanges like us need to do a big push to educate users. A lot of people still believe cryptocurrency is banned in India.

Women from India, who generally own gold jewelry as part of their wealth, are more likely to work in the tech industry than women from the United Kingdom or the United States. Across genders, Singhal said hes seen a lot of enthusiasm, participation and activities around Ethereum.

Ethereum has its limits, but its an open platform to experiment, Singhal said. India is a very important market. Everyone understands that. We just need regulations to protect users, which will spark innovation.

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During the last seven days, the price of bitcoin has dropped 4.8% from a high of $9,700 on June 24, to a low of $8,965 on June 27. Since then the price has increased and the price per bitcoin is back above the $9k zone but much lower than before. The lower price has affected the profits of miners hashing away to find blocks on the network. Ever since they lost 50% of the block reward on May 11, gathering profits have been tough on miners with bitcoin prices at these levels.

Mining bitcoin is an extremely competitive industry and after the BTC reward halving on May 11, 2020, it has been much harder to mine the rare digital currency. At the time of publication, the price of a single BTC has been hovering between $9,050 to $9,250 during the last few days.

This has given the crypto asset an overall market valuation of between $165 billion to $170 billion during the course of the week. The price is over 4.8% lower than it was on June 24, when BTC prices were hovering around $9,700 last Wednesday.

Of course, the price of BTC directly affects miners and the tens of thousands of ASIC mining rigs housed in warehouses all around the world. An example of this trend is how the Bitmain Antminer S19 Pro (110TH/s) is the only profitable machine if a mining operation is paying $0.12 per kilowatt-hour (kWh).

With this electrical cost, the Antminer S19 Pro would only make $0.97 per day while a number of other miners would be mining at a loss. Now we all know that in places like China and other regions worldwide, those operations pay much less than $0.12 per kWh.

At todays BTC exchange rates and at a much lower rate of $0.04 per kWh, a much larger number of SHA256 miners would be profitable. At $0.04 per kWh, a total of 49 SHA256 ASIC mining rigs are profitable at todays spot market price.

The top five mining rigs making the most profit at the electrical rate of $0.04 per kWh, includes the Bitmain Antminer S19 Pro (110TH/s), Bitmain Antminer S19 (95TH/s), MicroBT Whatsminer M30S (86TH/s), Bitmain Antminer T19 (84TH/s), and the Bitmain Antminer S17+ (73TH/s).

The machines that are making the worst profits at $0.04 per kWh and BTCs current exchange rate include miners like the GMO miner B2 (24TH/s), Innosilicon T2 Turbo (24TH/s), Bitmain Antminer S9 SE (16TH/s), Bitfily Snow Panther B1+ (25.5TH/s), and the Canaan AvalonMiner 921 (20TH/s).

Miners who are mining BTC at a loss at $0.04 per kWh include Bitfily Snow Panther B1 (16TH/s), Aladdin Miner (16TH/s), and the Ebang Ebit E10 (18TH/s). ASIC mining rigs that offer terahash below the 20TH/s level are likely not making profits unless they are paying less than $0.04 per kWh. Many of these older generation mining rigs would need to pay around $0.01 per kWh or get electricity for free.

Just like the blockchain analytics provider Tradeblock wrote in a report back in February, the company said that it estimated the cost to mine BTC should be over $12,500 after the halving.

The [data] suggests that miners are likely expecting the price of bitcoin to rise to higher levels (above $12,000-15,000 per BTC) around the halving allowing them to continue to generate a profit, Tradeblock wrote at the time. Or they likely will look to reduce resources following the halving resulting in a hash rate decline as profitability falls, the company added.

The price of BTC has yet to keep the $10k zone for very long and every time it does its been pushed back down below the psychological region. If the price of BTC does in fact jump back to above $12,000-15,000 per BTC like Tradeblocks report suggested, miners of course, would do a whole lot better.

At $12,000-15,000 per bitcoin, older generation miners that process hashpower below the 20 terahash per second level would likely be turned right back on. Its likely that many older generation miners with low terahash outputs are sitting and waiting to do just that.

What do you think about the profitability of ASIC mining rigs at todays exchange rates? Let us know what you think in the comments section below.

Image Credits: Shutterstock, Pixabay, Wiki Commons, Asicminervalue.com

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Bitcoin's 5% Drop in Value Puts Pressure on BTC Mining Operations and Older ASIC Rigs - Bitcoin News