Daily Archives: July 3, 2020

TORONTO -- A new study has determined that only 110 people are needed to help build a functioning and self-sustaining human colony on Mars.

The study, conducted by Prof. Jean-Marc Salotti of France's Bordeaux Institute National Polytechnique, found that this number of humans could be enough to create the tools and supplies needed to establish a civilization on the red planet.

"For survival on Mars, some assumptions are made for the organization of the settlers and engineering issue. The minimum number of settlers has been calculated and the result is 110 individuals," Salotti said in the study.

The study, published June 16 in the scientific journal Nature, found that having 110 people on Mars is the ideal number of people to use resources on the planet without depleting supplies.

Salotti came up with this figure using a mathematical model to determine "the feasibility of survival on another planet." According to the study, the model was based on the relation between the time requirements for implementing enterprises necessary for long-term survival and the available time of the settlers.

The study assumed that the number of resources the settlers could bring from Earth would be limited and survival on Mars would primarily rely on "available local resources," such as gas, liquid, or a mineral, in addition to human "production capacity."

"The minimum number of individuals for survival depends on their capacity to produce essential objects and consumables using local resources," Salotti said. "The initial state of the settlement is very important because large quantities of resources and modern tools may help a lot in developing industries and achieving a viable state."

Salotti explained that the settlers would have to live in an oxygen-filled dome where they would build their own agricultural industry to sustain life on the planet.

In order for the settlers to survive, the study said their capacity to work must be more than the amount of time required to build tools. Their survival would also depend on organization within the group, and their capacity to share, which would help settlers become more efficient in dividing up work, according to Salotti.

However, he cautioned that the small community would still come with risks.

The study reported that the civilization could collapse due to infertility, inbreeding, sudden deaths, accident, random events, fighting between individuals, lack of resources and loss of efficiency.

"This is especially true at the beginning of the settlement, as any accident could dramatically reduce the production capacity. In order to mitigate the risks, it will therefore be important to start with large amounts of resources and spare parts," Salotti said.

The study also accounted for possible situations where support from Earth may suddenly be cut off due to reasons such as war, or if the settlement declared independence and tried to survive as its own regime.

While the calculation is hypothetical, Salotti said the study marks the "first quantitative assessment of the minimum number of individuals for survival based on engineering constraints." He added that his work suggests that human habitation of a new planet may be easier than previously thought.

The study's findings coincide with SpaceX's current plans regarding human missions into space.

Earlier this month SpaceX became the first private company to send people into orbit as one of the first steps in U.S. tech billionaire Elon Musks goal to start a civilization on Mars.

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How many humans are needed to start a colony on Mars? - CTV News

So you want to colonize Mars, huh? Well Mars is a long ways away, and in order for a colony to function that far from Earthly support, things have to be thought out very carefully. Including how many people are needed to make it work.

A new study pegs the minimum number of settlers at 110.

The new study is titled Minimum Number of Settlers for Survival on Another Planet. The author is Jean-Marc Salotti, a Professor at Bordeaux Institut National Polytechnique. His paper is published in Nature: Scientific Reports.

Obviously, theres a lot to think about when it comes to having any kind of sustained presence on another planet. How will people organize themselves? What equipment will they bring? How will they extract in-situ resources? What kind of skills are needed?

These questions have been addressed before, of course, and in this report Salotti says that The use ofin situresources and different social organizations have been proposed, but there is still a poor understanding of the problems variables.

This study mostly focuses on one question: how many people will it take? Salotti writes: I show here that a mathematical model can be used to determine the minimum number of settlers and the way of life for survival on another planet, using Mars as the example.

A lot of thought has gone into colonizing Mars. SpaceX says their proposed interplanetary spacecraft could carry 100 people to Mars. Musk has talked about building a fleet of them, so that theres a constant flow of resources to Mars. But is that realistic? However, Salotti writes, this is an optimistic estimate of the capability, the feasibility of the reusability remains uncertain and the qualification of the vehicle for landing on Mars and relaunch from Mars could be very difficult and take several decades.

A similar dynamic hovers over other parts of the Mars colony discussion. Many researchers have thought about in-situ resource utilization, for instance. Gases could be extracted from the atmosphere, and minerals from the soil. In-situ resource extraction could provide organic compounds, iron, and even glass. Even if we grant the feasibility of these ideas, the complexity of the implementation is poorly understood and the number of items that would remain to be sent each year would still represent a tremendous challenge, writes Salotti.

The problem of a colony is bewilderingly complex.

Salotti worked on a mathematical model that he thinks could serve as a good starting point for thinking about a self-sustaining colony. Central to his idea is what he calls the sharing factor, which allows some reduction of time requirements per individual if, for example, the activity concerns the construction of an object that can be shared by several individuals.

The starting point of the settlement is critical to the rest of the work. What resources will be in place? If theres a large amount of resources and technological tools in the beginning, that will affect the rest of the calculations. But in some ways, the starting point might not be as critical, for two factors.

The complexity, expense, and feasibility of interplanetary travel is one. And the lifetime of the equipment that settlers start with is another. Every piece of equipment has a lifetime.

For the sake of simplicity, Salotti writes, it is assumed here that the initial amount of resources and tools sent from Earth will be rather limited and as a consequence will not have much impact on survival. In essence, building a model that relies on easy re-supply from Earth wouldnt be that helpful.

So, granting that the initial state of the colony is viable, Salotti moves on to two variables which will have a huge effect on survival:

What Salotti is working up to here is an equation. Things like resource availability and production capacity are variables in that equation.

But Salottis idea always circles back to the concept of the sharing factor.

Imagine an isolated individual in a colonizing situation on Mars. They would have to perform all task themselves. They would need to build and or maintain their own systems to acquire drinking water, oxygen, and to generate power. There wouldnt be enough time in each day. The burden on a single person would be enormous.

But in a larger colony, their technology for things like getting drinking water, oxygen, and for generating power is used by more people. That creates more demand, but it also spreads out the burden. The effort it takes to build and maintain all those systems is now spread out among more people. That, in essence, is Salottis sharing factor.

It gets better.

As the number of people increases, theres room for more specialization. Imagine a colony of only 10 people. How many of them would need to be able to repair and maintain the drinking water system? Or the oxygen system? Those systems cannot be allowed to fail, so there would be pressure for a large percent of those people to be able to operate and understand those systems.

Salotti writes: If each settler was completely isolated and no sharing was possible, each individual would have to perform all activities and the total time requirement would be obtained by a multiplication by the number of individuals.

But if there are one hundred people, how many people need to understand those systems? Not everyone. So that allows others to specialize in something else.

a greater number of individuals makes it possible to be more efficient through specialization and to implement other industries allowing the use of more efficient tools.

Salotti argues that this sharing factor can be calculated, and estimated with different mathematical functions. Math-interested people can check that part of the paper out for themselves.

There are some constraints and starting points for the sharing factor, of course. The sharing factor depends on the needs, the processes, the resources and environmental conditions, which may be different depending on the planet, Salotti writes.

This leads us to Salottis description of survival domains. Salotti outlines five domains that need to be considered in these calculations:

These are mostly self-explanatory, but human factors refers to things like raising and education children, and some amount of cultural activities like sports, games, perhaps music.

Now Salotti turns to Mars, the primary planet when it comes to this kind of futuristic figuring, and the planet that Salotti addresses in his paper.

Salotti doesnt start from scratch when it comes to Mars. Theres already been a lot of scientific thinking into building a sustained human presence on that planet. The specific utilization of Martian resources for life support, agriculture and industrial production has been studied in different workshops and published in reports and books, Salotti explains.

Obviously, this is a complex problem, and some assumptions have to be made in order to think about it. For any solution to have merit, those assumptions have to be honest. No place for science fiction here.

The basic assumption Salottti uses is that for whatever reason, the flow of supplies from Earth has been interrupted, and the colony must sustain itself. He borrows a scenario from a contest organized by the Mars Society, where participants were asked to define a realistic scenario for setting Mars.

Basically, Salottis equation comes down to time. How much time is required for survival vs. how much time is available. For Salotti, the effective number of people required to balance the time equation is 110 on Mars. It is based on the comparison between the required working time to fulfil all the needs for survival and the working time capacity of the individuals, he writes in the conclusion.

Naturally work of this nature makes some assumptions, which are spelled out in the paper. This is obviously a rough estimate with numerous assumptions and uncertainties, he writes. But that doesnt diminish its usefulness.

If theres ever going to be a human colony on Mars, at some point in the future, then we need to develop working models to guide our thinking and our planning. We have a lot of sci-fi talk, and flowery announcements from people with large Twitter followings, but thats not real work. To our knowledge, it is nevertheless the first quantitative assessment of the minimum number of individuals for survival based on engineering constraints, Salotti says.

Our method allows simple comparisons, opening the debate for the best strategy for survival and the best place to succeed, he concludes.

Let the debate begin.

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The Bare Minimum Number of Martian Settlers? 110 - Universe Today

Id rather be late to a great party than never go at all, and thats how I feel about becoming a fan ofThe Expanse four seasons into the shows run. The sprawling, dynamic, always-surprising series is the best science fiction currently on TVand its gorgeous complexity drives home how much efforts like the new Star Treks have dropped the ball.

The Expanseis based on a continuing series of novels by Daniel Abraham and Ty Franck, who write under the joint pen name James S.A. Corey and also work on the show. Set in the 24th century, humanity inhabits the colonized solar system and is on the knife-edge of war, factional violence, and struggles with brutal capitalism and labor exploitation. But its also very fun! I promise.

Showing up late toThe Expanseparty can be blamed partially on the fact that it takes a few episodes for the show to hit its stride. You start off being tossed into a chaotic space station, Ceres, where the Belter populationwho mine the resources that Earth and its former colony Mars gobble upis chafing under oppressive conditions. At first, The Expanse plays like a procedural drama in space, following weary space cop Joe Miller (Thomas Jane) on his increasingly obsessive quest to find the missing daughter of an influential man.

Theres a lot of exposition to set up the universe, and a lot of Belter Creole slang thrown about, and a ton of characters with different motivations introduced. Meanwhile, unfolding far away, the crew of an ice-hauling company stops to investigate a distress call. It turns out that these more distant characters will become the heart of the narrative, but it takes a while for them to arrive. I think I began The Expanse at minimum four times before deciding to stick with it. But on The Expanse, very little is as it seems, and it turns out not to be the show I thought it was at all. This emerges as rather a reoccurring theme: if you think you know whats about to happen onThe Expanse, you are wrong.

If you tried and never clicked with the series initial episodes, I urge you to reconsider. The Expanse is more than worth the time you put into it. Midway through the first season, it picks up speed, and it doesnt relent again. In a deft balancing act, The Expanse manages to juggle a breakneck pace with a variety of simultaneous storylines, meticulous world-building, and astonishing character development. In a universe populated by cunning and desperate people, its action is as clever, and it trusts the audience to follow along.

One of my favorite elements aboutThe Expanse is how expertly it demonstrates that morality exists in shades of grey and how often, in fact, morality is in the eye of the beholder. While there are bad characters for a stretch, meaning they conflict with our heroes agenda, no one is ever truly an evil villain in the superhero movie sense; no one cackles and twirls their mustache. People make horrendous choices and crushing policy decisions, but we usually come to see that from their perspective and experience, they feel justified. Everyone on The Expanse is fighting to survive and to see their loved ones persevere. No one is bad for the sake of being bad. And characters that were once in total opposition may eventually find themselves allies or even friends.

As a caveat, The Expanse is quite violent, and not a show Id recommend to watch with little kids. I lost track of the number of times people are shot in the headits a lot. Its not, however, ever overly gratuitous or gory. And watching its violence tempered with witand its thoughtfulness about the varied states of humanityhelped drive home what has felt so frustrating about other recent science fiction series on TV that have tried to follow in the space operatic tradition.

BothStar Trek: DiscoveryandPicard often felt watered-down to me, stories with cardboard characters who spout platitudes and engage in all-too-predictable storylines, even when they try to veer dark. Their lack of nuance, character, and world-building is head-scratching. Watching The Expanse makes you realize how much those shows do not trust their own audiences to take the leap into the unknown. If The Expanse is an oil painting, the new Star Treks seem drawn in crayon.

But for a science fiction series set hundreds of years in the future, The Expanse still remains mostly rooted in reality and all too possible. Its tech is not so over-the-top as to appear like magic to us. It extrapolates who we are and how that would play out in a more technologically advanced time; it draws from ideas already in motion. And so, much as would be the case if we could soar far into the cosmos tomorrow, humanity engages in war-mongering, arms-amassing, colonization, and exploitation of people and resources. Somehow the show manages to fit in commentary on difficult contemporary topics like refugees, terrorism, a failed welfare state, faltering veterans services, the media, elections, and more without being heavy-handed.

In one of its finest extrapolations, the shows considerable cast is hugely diverseas would be humanitys expansion in the future. The women are also depicted as strong, uncompromising, powerful, central, and vital: from Dominique Tippers brilliant lead Naomi Nagota to the showstopping Shohreh Aghdashloo as the most influential woman on Earth to Cara Gees sharp-as-nails Captain Drummer to Frankie Adams Martian Marine, who is quite possibly the most capably badass woman on television. And thats just the ladies in the main cast.

Watching The Expanse will make you question why we cant see this kind of diversity of representation in every cast in every kind of production. Youll also find guest roles and appearances from well-known faces like David Strathairn, Francois Chau, Jared Harris, Terry Chen, Burn Gorman, Simu Liu, Jay Hernandez, Elizabeth Mitchell, and many more.

The shows sciencesave when certain acts occur that alter the laws of physicsis also on point. Characters who grew up without Earths gravity suffer greatly when they step out onto a planet for the first time; the blue horizon, and the endless ocean, makes a visitor from bone-dry Mars to Earth dizzy. The limitations of space travel and spaceship maneuvering capabilities come into play. These are the sort of concerns and boundaries rarely seen and explored on speculative future-based television. But The Expanse dislikes hand-waving through any activity. Instead, the attention to so much detailin the plot, the scripts, the casting, the science, and the stunningly evocative set design and effectsmakes everything thats happening onscreen convincingly grounded. It also makes for excellent escapism. You really cant lose.

If I were to have any criticism of the show, it is that some of the events surrounding the protomoloculeits one truly out-there elementcan be confusing and exasperating. Sometimes you want to shake Steven Straits Captain James Holden by his well-intentioned shoulders and yell, Really? Really? At other times, theres almost too much of an adherence to slowly unraveling a plot pointfor example, weve heard hints about Amoss (Wes Chatham) disturbing childhood days in Baltimore for four seasons now without further exploration. But such deeply felt occasional frustration demonstrates how deeply engaged I became in a matter of days. And I trust, at this juncture, that The Expanseis making the choices it does for a reason.

While the troubling accusations surrounding actor Cas Anvar (who plays pilot Alex Kamal) have recently cast a pall, The Expanses engaged fandom has been vocal in its support of Anvars alleged victims.The Expanse fandom well espouses the passion and dynamism of its show. They famously went into overdrive in order to resurrect The Expanse when the series was canceled by SyFy after its third season, waging one of the most successful save the show efforts to date.

As Wired recounts, Fans of the show organized an unprecedented campaign of attention-grabbing stunts, hoping to persuade a streaming service to rescue the show. From flying a SaveThe Expanse banner over Amazon studios to sending a model of the ship Rocinante to the edge of space, fans rallying worked: Amazon picked upThe Expanse,where it will hopefully have a home for many years to come. Dont you want to know why fans dedication runs so deep?

With the fifth seasons filming already wrapped, this is the perfect time to binge The Expanse on Amazon Video. Ive never experienced a universe that feels so utterly familiar and so distantly alien at the same time, nor can I call to mind a science fiction series as compelling watchable in the last decade. Its like nothing that youve seen before, and I cant wait for you to visit.

(images: SyFy/Amazon Prime Video)

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'The Expanse' Is the Best Sci Fi on TV - The Mary Sue

With help from Bryan Bender

An industry coalition forms to fight FCCs Ligado decision.

A House panel wants the Pentagon to look at an expansive oversight post for space, nuclear and missile defense policy.

Blue Origin national teams lunar lander is still on track despite the pandemic.

WELCOME TO POLITICO SPACE, our must-read briefing on the policies and personalities shaping the new space age in Washington and beyond. Email us at [emailprotected], [emailprotected] or [emailprotected] with tips, pitches and feedback, and find us on Twitter at @jacqklimas, @bryandbender and @dave_brown24. And dont forget to check out POLITICO's astropolitics page for articles, Q&As, opinion and more.

A message from Northrop Grumman:

Space isnt just for exploring. Its an international proving ground and vital for national security. At Northrop Grumman, our work in intelligence, surveillance, communications, and early warning systems ensures America always has the ultimate high ground. Find out more about how were defining possible in space. Learn more

INDUSTRY GROUP FIGHTS TO PROTECT GPS: Five trade organizations are banding together to ensure the GPS signals their industries rely on remain safe in the wake of the FCCs April decision to allow Ligado Networks to operate in the portion of spectrum in close proximity to GPS signals. The Keep GPS Working Coalition was established on Tuesday to bring attention to the ruling, which some missed during the pandemic, said R.J. Karney, the director of congressional relations at the American Farm Bureau Federation.

We decided this coalition was needed to help elevate the issue and bring it back to the forefront because when the FCC order was announced in the height of quarantine and Covid response, it flew low under the radar, Karney told POLITICO in this weeks Q&A. I have spoken to other organizations that are starting to go beyond the issues just related to their Covid-19 response. Now they're able to turn their attention to some of these newer issues.

The groups top priority is supporting a bill that will hold Ligado Networks responsible for any GPS interference caused by its 5G network. The Recognizing and Ensuring Taxpayer Access to Infrastructure Necessary for GPS and Satellite Communications, or RETAIN Act, which is expected to be introduced by Sens. Jim Inhofe and Jack Reed, would shift that burden away from both users of GPS and companies which make equipment that uses the signals.

NEW PENTAGON SPACE POST? The House Armed Services Committees version of the National Defense Authorization Act directs the secretary of Defense to consider realigning nuclear deterrence, missile defense, and space policy under one assistant secretary in order to streamline deterrence policy development and to adequately inform acquisition of capabilities to support strategic deterrence, according to a copy of the chairmans mark obtained by our colleague Connor OBrien ahead of next weeks release.

The committee notes the benefit and importance of establishing an Assistant Secretary of Defense for policy with responsibility for space, nuclear deterrence and missile defense policy in order to realign policy on strategic deterrence, it says.

WHAT ELSE DOES HASC WANT? Air Force Magazine compiled a rundown of space initiatives in the House Armed Services Strategic Forces Subcommittees portion of the National Defense Authorization Act. Some requests made by lawmakers in the bill include:

A plan for how to use more commercial satellite communications capabilities due in March 2021 A report on deep space mission requirements for national security due by December A report due Nov. 1 on what roles the Space Force, U.S. Space Command, National Reconnaissance Office and National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency play in maneuvering assets in orbit A report due Oct. 30 on what progress the Pentagon has made to buy new military weather satellites

The House Armed Services Committee will mark up its version of the bill on Wednesday in a virtual session.

MOON MISSION PROGRESSES DESPITE PANDEMIC: One NASA contracting team vying to bring humans to the lunar surface says the coronavirus pandemic has not slowed them down, though some of the work has proceeded in unconventional locations like basements and patios.

The Blue Origin national team, which also includes Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman and Draper, has kept on track building its lunar lander, and employees told reporters Thursday that the work is providing inspiration in a dark time.

Its a new world to us. Its not something we have a lot of heritage in accommodating, said Seamus Tuohy, principal director of space systems at Draper, of working through a pandemic. It gives us a good reason to overcome whats been happening.

Theyre facing some familiar challenges working from home: a blurred line between work and home life. One of the things Ive really enjoyed is the geographical boundaries have disappeared with this ability to communicate, said Sally Richardson, program director for the human landing system at Northrop Grumman. It actually gives us more productivity and enables our workday to be that much longer.

INDUSTRY INTEL: Relativity to launch from West Coast: Relativity Space, a small launch company that 3D-prints its rockets, is building new launch facilities at Vandenberg Air Force Base in California, giving the company the ability to send payloads into orbit from both coasts.

The company on Wednesday announced it reached a Right of Entry Agreement with the 30th Space Wing to begin developing a launch pad to launch payloads to polar- and solar-synchronous orbits. Relativity also signed its first Vandenberg customer this week: Iridium Communications, the fifth customer overall, is expected to launch satellites on the companys Terran 1 rocket no earlier than 2023.

The company also has a launch facility at Cape Canaveral Launch Complex 16 in Florida and two test sites at NASAs Stennis Space Center in Mississippi.

NASA AWARDS NOAA CONTRACT: Ball Aerospace received a $96.9 million contract Thursday for NOAAs Space Weather Follow On-Lagrange 1 spacecraft, which will take measurements of phenomena like solar wind while it orbits the sun. The contract runs through March 31, 2025, and the spacecraft is expected to launch in 2024.

QUESTION OF THE WEEK: Congratulations to Ed LaCroix, a trustee of the National Association of Rocketry, for being the first to correctly answer that Sally Ride spent six days in space on her first mission.

This weeks question: The European Space Agencys Mars Express mission launched 17 years ago this month. How many months did it take the spacecraft to reach the Red Planet?

The first person to email [emailprotected] gets bragging rights and a shoutout in next weeks newsletter!

A message from Northrop Grumman:

Space isnt just for exploring. Its an international proving ground to show off the best of what America has to offer and it is vital for national security. Thats why Northrop Grumman is always pushing the boundaries in space, whether through reliable navigation systems or powerful, integrated C4ISR to give our warfighters the complete picture. Because building and maintaining the very best in intelligence, surveillance, communications, and early warning space systems is what gives America ultimate high ground and thats what we do best. Find out more about how were Defining Possible in space. Learn more

Satellites documented Covid-19s impact from space: The Verge

NASA names headquarters for first Black female engineer: The New York Times

SpaceX's maiden voyage for astronauts could return Aug. 2: Space.com

NASA is offering up to $20,000 for a better space toilet design: Business Insider

New study says 110 humans needed to start Mars colony: National Post

Elon Musk shares latest progress of Mars-bound Starship: The Independent

NASA's next Mars rover delayed again by 'contamination concern': Space.com

Griffin departure stirs questions about future of Space Development Agency: Space News

China reaches new milestone in space-based quantum communications: Scientific American

Mars mission would put China among space leaders: Science Magazine

Russia plans to take first tourist on space walk in 2023: Phys.org

Lisa Kudrow doesn't know why her Space Force character is in prison: Screen Rant

WEDNESDAY: The House Armed Services Committee marks up its version of the fiscal 2021 National Defense Authorization Act.

WEDNESDAY: Astronauts Chris Cassidy and Bob Behnken conduct a spacewalk outside the International Space Station thats expected to last up to seven hours.

WEDNESDAY: The astronauts and cosmonauts expected to launch to the International Space Station in October speak at a press conference.

THURSDAY: The Aerospace Corporation holds a virtual event on the future of commercial spaceflight with former NASA Administrator Charlie Bolden.

THURSDAY: The Secure World Foundation hosts a virtual event on space sustainability.

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Industry coalition forms to protect GPS - POLITICO - Politico