Daily Archives: February 25, 2020

Bitcoin, along with the surging wider cryptocurrency market, has had an incredible start to the year.

The bitcoin price has rallied around 50% since January 1, with some smaller cryptocurrencies making surprise triple-digit percentage gains, and many bitcoin bulls think it still has further to gothough problems could be on the horizon.

Now, Changpeng Zhao, the widely-respected founder and chief executive of the world's biggest bitcoin and cryptocurrency exchange Binance, has broken his rule against market forecasting to predict "the bitcoin price will likely increase."

Binance's chief executive is feeling bullish on the bitcoin price ahead of bitcoin's upcoming ... [+] halving event, expected in May.

"I personally believe the halving has not been priced in," Changpeng Zhao, often known simply as CZ, told bitcoin, cryptocurrency and blockchain video news site BlockTV this week, adding he "doesn't usually give market predictions" because he will be wrong "50% of the time."

Bitcoin traders and investors have begun gearing up for the looming May bitcoin halving event, among other positive bitcoin developments expected this year, when the coin reward for mining new bitcoin blocks is scheduled to drop from 12.5 bitcoin to 6.25 bitcoincutting the supply of new bitcoin coming onto the market by half.

There have already been two bitcoin halvings since bitcoin launched in 2009, one in 2012 and another in 2016. Bitcoin halvings are scheduled to continue roughly once every four years until the maximum supply of 21 million bitcoins has been generated by the network, something that won't happen until well into the next century.

Whether the upcoming bitcoin halving has been "priced in" by the market has become a controversial issue among investors. Generally, in well-developed markets, equity, commodities and currencies are priced based on future expectationssuggesting that as bitcoin traders and investors are aware of the May halving, the price will have already made the gains related to it.

CZ disagrees, however, telling BlockTV: "The market is not efficient. Most people don't get information quickly. People need a lot of time to let concepts sink in and adjust."

Many are hoping the 2020 bitcoin halving will see a repeat of the last cut to supply. Bitcoin prices doubled in 2016 and soared 13-fold the following year.

However, CZ warned that "historic events do not predict future events, so don't take that too literally," but explained the bitcoin halving will mean "it costs miners almost double what it does now to produce one bitcoin. Psychologically, those miners won't be willing to sell below that price."

The bitcoin price has soared so far this year but has swung wildly in recent weeks, bouncing around ... [+] the psychological $10,000 per bitcoin mark.

"New bitcoin coming to market will be severely limited and at the same time we're seeing more users and traders coming in."

"Economic theory tells us that the bitcoin price will likely increase but this is just the theory and hard to predict," CZ said, adding he's feeling "pretty positive."

Meanwhile, the number of people searching Google for the term "bitcoin halving" has been steadily rising along with the bitcoin price.

Analysts at Arcane Research found last monththat an increase in searches could be a sign bitcoin's halving will recapture the wider public interest in bitcoin and crypto that catapulted the bitcoin price to around $20,000 in 2017.

Many other bitcoin and cryptocurrency market watchers share CZ's enthusiasm, though some think it could be other factors that push up the bitcoin price.

"I still think that bitcoin will hit $100,000 by end of December 2021," Anthony Pompliano, the cofounder of bitcoin and crypto investment group Morgan Creek Digital, said last month, pointing to bitcoin's "fixed supply" and "increasing demand" as the reason for bitcoin's performance.

Elsewhere, others are not so upbeatwith the the chief executive of China-based investment advisory group RockTree Capital last month forecasting we could see the bitcoin price dip.

Continued here:
Binance CEO Makes Rare Price PredictionSays This Is When To Buy Bitcoin - Forbes

What happens to your bitcoin after you die?

This is more than just a philosophical question: It could involve a substantial amount of currency.

The question of crypto and the Great Beyond is what prompted about 20 or so developers to get together in London recently to experiment with repurposing the current lightning protocol to send private messages as a dead man's button, a system that can't be censored and would keep your crypto safe for your heirs.

Lightning Labs infrastructure engineer Joost Jager has been exploring using lightning for messaging over the past year. At the Advancing Bitcoin conference in London, Jager hosted a workshop to explore building a dead man's button with lightning. The mission was to show that lightning can be used as messaging system as well as a payment network.

These buttons are not new. At the workshop, Jager noted Edward Snowden, the National Security Agency whistleblower, used one in case he died before journalists could reveal the contents of the documents he wanted to make public.

The goal of the workshop was to explore one of lightnings relatively new features, "keysend" (formerly known as spontaneous payments). Its so experimental it isn't even described in the lightning specifications yet. But it does offer a way to send data (called "custom records" in LND, the lightning implementation Jager works on) along with a transaction.

Heres how it might work: Imagine a user who wants to pass on a bitcoin (BTC) inheritance. That user would communicate with a "service," pushing a "button" that would send a message every week or so to signify that the user is still alive.

If the button isn't pressed one week, it is assumed the bitcoin user is dead or incapacitated and it's time for the bitcoin to be passed on, at which point the service automatically dispenses a "secret," which can be used to retrieve the crypto.

Beyond that, Jager thought some additional features should be added, even if they could make the program trickier to implement. The program should maintain the privacy of the sender and the receiver, he said, and should allow the sender to get proof the service still has the secret.

Developers split into small groups to think about how to build a service that would meet all of these and other goals. The workshop developers came up with some ideas, which Jager published to GitHub. He included a rough implementation, which puts several of the ideas into practice, though he said the code "is extremely limited and does not implement everything described."

This design isn't necessarily the best way forward, Jager said, but it's a proof of concept he hopes can inspire other implementations.

Imagination versus loss

Jager told CoinDesk the "primary" reason he chose the dead man's button for the workshop was it is complex enough of a use case that it can show off what lightning can do as a messaging system.

But he also thinks a dead man's button could be a real use case for lightning down the road.

"Many people try to arrange their crypto inheritance and need to make up their minds about who they trust. This could be an alternative, assuming that wrinkles are ironed out and the whole process is hidden underneath a user-friendly shell," he said. This is "unlikely to happen short term, but I hope people see the possibilities."

Lawyer Pamela Morgan, an expert on crypto inheritance and author of a book dedicated to helping people develop a plan to pass on their crypto, agrees with Jager the technology is far from ready. But she said she would not encourage users to put any money into any experimental dead man's button systems just yet.

"Dead man's switches are fun projects that excite our imaginations but fail to solve the complex and multidisciplinary challenges of crypto asset inheritance distribution. Relying on such solutions for something as important as inheritance is likely to cause catastrophic loss," she told CoinDesk.

However, she said the technology has promise. Since few crypto enthusiasts have any sort of a plan for what to do with their currencies after they are gone, she's happy to see people exploring ways to make crypto inheritance a more common practice.

"If adding a dead man's switch makes more people actually do inheritance planning for their bitcoin, then I'm all for it because so few people actually do anything," she told CoinDesk.

In the meantime, Jager is pressing on with beefing up lightning's messaging system to make it easier to send messages across the network.

Correction (Feb. 24, 22:52 UTC): This article has been updated to clarify the intent of the workshop.

The leader in blockchain news, CoinDesk is a media outlet that strives for the highest journalistic standards and abides by a strict set of editorial policies. CoinDesk is an independent operating subsidiary of Digital Currency Group, which invests in cryptocurrencies and blockchain startups.

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How to Protect Bitcoin for Your Heirs With the Push of a 'Dead Man's Button' - CoinDesk - Coindesk

Justin Sun, the founder and CEO of Tron (TRX), the 15th biggest cryptocurrency by market cap, is investing in a number of cryptos other than Bitcoin (BTC).

In a Feb. 23 interview with CNN, Tron CEO said that he is a long-term believer in cryptocurrencies and owns a stake in many altcoins, including the two largest coins after Bitcoin Ether (ETH) and XRP.

When asked whether Sun has its crypto portfolio diversified, the Tron CEO answered:

I own a lot of XRP and Ethereum, too. Im like a long-term believer of the crypto so I want all crypto assets to succeed. So thats why I own a lot of other different cryptos as well.

As a major believer in crypto, Sun is bullish on the price of cryptocurrencies and confident that cryptos like Bitcoin are the future of money. In the interview, Tron CEO predicted that Bitcoin will cross $100,000 mark in 2025, emphasizing that other cryptocurrencies will follow the trend.

Justin Suns $100,000 Bitcoin prediction in his own words:

I definitely believe Bitcoin will pass $100K in 2025. I believe we can achieve this price before 2025. At the same time, I think a lot of other crypto projects like Tron, Ethereum and XRP will also see bull market.

In line with his bullish stance on crypto, Trons Justin Sun claimed in the interview that he invests all of his money to crypto. However, Sun still converts his crypto in fiat currencies like the United States dollar. In the interview, Tron CEO said that he only withdraws crypto to fiat when he needs to spend money in his daily life.

The news comes about a month after Sun had his charity lunch with Berkshire Hathaway chairman and known Bitcoin critic Warren Buffett. On Jan. 23, Tron CEO met with Buffett to finally have a long-awaited luncheon after postponing the event for medical reasons previously in 2019.

In the latest interview, Tron CEO revealed that he didnt exactly try to convince the famous billionaire investor that crypto will massively surge in the coming years. Instead, Justin Sun was trying to explain some crypto potentials to Buffett as he wanted him to understand basic fundamentals of blockchain and crypto such as instant crypto transactions.

Tron CEO also outlined that Buffett was very open to new technologies like crypto and blockchain, noting that the the known investor accepted Bitcoin and TRX from him. However, Buffett has claimed that he doesnt own any cryptocurrency and doesnt plan to invest in any crypto in a Feb. 24 interview with CNBC. In the interview, the billionaire investor reiterated his negative stance on crypto, arguing that cryptos have zero value and dont produce anything.

In another CNBC interview in 2018, Buffet predicted that crypto will come to a bad ending, declaring that Bitcoin is "probably rat poison squared.

Cointelegraph reached out to the Tron team for additional comments on the matter and will update if we hear back.

See more here:
Tron CEO: Bitcoin to Break $100K in 2025 and Pull Up Other Coins - Cointelegraph

Bitcoin, cryptocurrencies, blockchain, decentralization, China's digital yuan, Facebook's librathe U.S. is understandably worried about the dominance of the almighty dollar.

Last year, U.S. president Donald Trump slammed bitcoin as based on "thin air," while his Treasury secretary Steven Mnuchin branded bitcoin a "national security threat."

Now, the U.S. has admitted bitcoin and cryptocurrency could undermine the dollar's status as the worlds reserve currencyand it wants to find out exactly how bad for the country, its economy, and security that could be.

The rise of bitcoin and cryptocurrencies has caused some to fear the dominance of the U.S. dollar ... [+] might be under threat.

"Many cryptocurrency enthusiasts predict that either a global cryptocurrency or a national digital currency could undermine the U.S. dollar," the U.S. Office of the Director of National Intelligence wrote in a job listing earlier this month, calling for two researchers to evaluate the impact of the U.S. dollar losing its status as the world reserve currency.

"If either of these scenarios or others come to pass, the U.S. would lose both its status in the world and its global authorities."

The two roles, looking for a postdoc Ph.D. graduate and a U.S. university or government laboratory employee research assistant, are with the U.S. Intelligence Community Postdoctoral Research Fellowship Program through the Department of Energys Oak Ridge Institute for Science and Technology.

Back in 2018, the Department of Energys Oak Ridge Institute for Science and Technology conducted research that found that the creation of new bitcoin, along with smaller cryptocurrencies ethereum, litecoin and monero, used more energy than mineral mining to produce the same market value.

The Department of Energys Oak Ridge Institute for Science and Technology did not respond to a request for comment.

"There are many advantages for U.S. national security to have the U.S. dollar as the world reserve currency," the job post, which has a deadline of the February 28, read, pointing to the combat of financial crimes, the prevention of terrorism and the development of weapons of mass destruction, the ability of the U.S. to sanction other countries, cause financial instability in global markets.

"The U.S. maintains international dominance in no small part due to its financial power and authorities."

Meanwhile, calls for the U.S. to begin development of a so-called digital dollar have been growing louder over recent months.

Christopher Giancarlo, former chairman of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, recently set up the Digital Dollar Foundation to work on the design and potential framework of a digital dollar.

The bitcoin price,which has failed to return to its all-time highs set in late 2017 despite it climbing around 50% since the beginning of the year, was given a substantial boost in the first half of last year by Facebook's plans for a bitcoin-like rival.

The bitcoin price has soared in recent years, making bitcoin easily the last decade's best ... [+] investment.

Many have long expected governments to eventually try to undermine bitcoin's network to halt its adoptionthough bitcoin's decentralized nature makes it remarkably resilient.

"We can win a major battle [with governments] in the arms race and gain a new territory of freedom for several years," bitcoin's mysterious creator Satoshi Nakamoto wrote in 2008. "Governments are good at cutting off the heads of a centrally controlled networks like Napster, but pure [peer-to-peer] networks like Gnutella and Tor seem to be holding their own."

Bitcoin now stands with these networks in resistance to government control.

Link:
The U.S. Is Very Worried About BitcoinAnd Its Finally Doing Something About It - Forbes

One of the earliest Bitcoin proponents is facing criticism for publicly endorsing an alternative crypto asset. Trace Mayer, who recommended people buy Bitcoin back in 2010, appeared on a recent YouTube interview talking very highly of Mimblewimble Coin.

Industry observers have taken issue with the fact that Mimblewimble Coin launched with a 50 percent pre-mine. Many in the crypto industry believe Mayers sudden endorsement of the recently-launched project is aimed at his own personal enrichment.

Investor, entrepreneur, and general advocate of freedom Trace Mayer was one of the first people to openly promote Bitcoin. According to the Bitcoin Knowledge podcast hosts website, he actually started in 2010, when the entire BTC market cap was less than $2 million.

As well as hosting his own podcast on Bitcoin, Mayer has appeared on countless YouTube channels to talk Bitcoin. Being involved with BTC from almost the very beginning, and him not using his credibility in the industry to promote questionable initial coin offerings during the 2017 bull market, earned Mayer the respect of many.

So too did his efforts at promoting Bitcoin as the ultimate asset by which to realise true monetary sovereignty. Starting in 2019, Mayer advocated an annual bank run of sorts on crypto asset exchange platforms on Bitcoins birthday. The idea behind proof-of-keys was to simultaneously promote self-custody of digital currencies, as well as to check on the solvency of the exchange platforms themselves.

Recently, Mayer appeared on yet another crypto-focused YouTube channel. Only this time, he didnt just champion Bitcoin.

The interview with World Alternative Mediaopened with questions about the Bitcoin halving and its likely impact on price. As you might expect from one of the most enduring Bitcoin advocates, Mayer thinks the supply shock will result in a higher Bitcoin price.

The Bitcoin Knowledge host then, seemingly out of nowhere, starts to laud more privacy-focused projects, in particular Mimblewimble Coin. He describes it as potentially more disruptive than Bitcoin:

. scalability increase, privacy, fungibility, anonymity, they think Bitcoins a problem? You can actually see whats happening on the Bitcoin blockchain.

Mayer makes a clear effort to promote Mimblewimble Coin in the above interview. Even after the presenter attempts to change the subject away from the relatively new altcoin, Mayer brings it up again.

He suggests that Bitcoin and Mimblewimble Coin are actually complimentary to one another, describing the pair as a two-headed dragon.

Mimblewimble itself is a privacy and scaling protocol that coins like Grin and Beam use. Many long-time Bitcoin proponents are interested in the technology since it may solve perceived issues with the leading crypto asset if implemented in the future.

Although it shares the name, many have dismissed Mimblewimble Coin as a scam. Those critical of it have drawn attention to major red flags within the projects whitepaper.

The chief of these, as highlighted in the below tweet, is a massive pre-mine of around 50 percent of the 20 million tokens that will exist. The rest of the supply will reportedly be released over time in the form of mining rewards.

The projects website gives little information as to the actual distribution of the pre-mined coins. It states only that 7.4 million are currently circulating.

NewsBTC could not confirm whether Mayer himself was an actual beneficiary of the pre-mine or otherwise. However, many of the industrys most prominent names believe the sudden shilling of Mimblewimble Coin is for Mayers own financial benefit. Some go as far as to suggest that Mayer himself is in someway connected with the project:

Some within the cryptocurrency industry confirm that Mayer promoted Mimblewimble Coin directly to them. Popular author and economics professor Saifedean Ammous replied to someone asking if he knew that Mayer had been attempting to pump the crypto asset:

Above, Ammous says that advised Mayer to keep his interests in the altcoin quiet. He says he warned him that public shilling of the pointless scam would result in the destruction of his reputation. If true, with hindsight, the advice was right on the money as per the criticism Mayer now faces.

Related Reading: Bitcoin Craters to $9,500 After Fakeout: Heres Why Its Time to Pay Attention

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The Knives are Out on Crypto Twitter as Bitcoin OG Turns into Altcoin Shill - newsBTC

Bitcoin struggled to stay above $9,750 and declined towards the $9,500 support against the US Dollar. BTC price could decline heavily if it settles below the key $9,500 support.

Recently, we saw a rejection in bitcoin near the $9,880 level against the US Dollar. BTC even started a downside extension from the $9,847 swing high and declined below the $9,750 support.

Besides, there was break below the $9,680 level and the 100 hourly simple moving average. It opened the doors for more losses and the price dropped towards the key $9,500 support area, where the bulls emerged.

A swing low is formed near $9,481 and the price is currently correcting higher. It surpassed the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent drop from the $9,841 high to $9,481 low.

However, there are many hurdles on the upside, starting with $9,640 and $9,680. More importantly, there is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near $9,640 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair.

Bitcoin Price

On the downside, the main support for bitcoin is near the $9,500 area. If there is a downside break and proper close below $9,500, the bears are likely to take over. In the mentioned case, there are chances of more losses towards the $9,200 and $9,050 support levels.

On the upside, the first key resistance is near the trend line and $9,640. The next one is near the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent drop from the $9,841 high to $9,481 low.

The main hurdle for bitcoin is near the $9,740 level and the 100 hourly simple moving average. Therefore, the bulls need to clear the trend line resistance and gain momentum above the 100 hourly simple moving average to start a fresh increase in the near term. If not, there is a risk of a sharp decline below $9,500.

Technical indicators:

Hourly MACD The MACD is slowly moving back into the bullish zone.

Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) The RSI for BTC/USD is currently correcting higher towards the 45 level.

Major Support Levels $9,500 followed by $9,200.

Major Resistance Levels $9,680, $9,740 and $9,880.

Link:
This Critical Bitcoin Short-Term Top is Sparking Big Correction Fears - newsBTC

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is once again poised to approve or reject a bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF), when Wilshire Phoenixs United States Bitcoin and Treasury Investment Trust meets a filing deadline Wednesday.

Wilshire Phoenix is the latest in a long line of companies hoping to secure SEC approval to list shares of a bitcoin-related ETF, and the only one that has an active application before the securities regulator. Such an instrument would allow retail investors to get exposure to the bitcoin market without what some see as the added difficulty of owning bitcoin itself, potentially boosting market participation by individuals wary of bitcoins stance as an unregulated investment.

While its chances are slim the SEC has yet to approve any bitcoin ETF applications for a multitude of stated reasons the company was filing updates to its proposal as recently as last week in efforts to bolster its application.

Wilshire managing partner William Herrmann told CoinDesk that he was optimistic about the filing, saying in a phone call last week that we wouldn't have filed it if we didn't think that it would be approved.

To boost its chances, the amended S-1 filed on Feb. 14 now includes an entire additional section on underwriters, though no specific entities are named. The filing also now includes Wilshire Phoenixs maximum share price ($2,500), a number of shares it intends to register initially (8,040) (though this number is likely to change when the actual shares are being offered) and a note on the trust's fees (68 basis points).

The firm filed the ETF application in mid-2019, with the regulator repeatedly postponing any decision, leading to the final Feb. 26 deadline.

In rejecting ETFs previously, the SEC has pointed to concerns about market manipulation, the bitcoin markets overall size and a need for surveillance-sharing agreements as some factors it considers.

Wilshire is attempting to address these concerns by composing its ETF with a basket that automatically rebalances itself between U.S. Treasury bonds and bitcoin in response to the cryptocurrencys volatility. As volatility goes up, the basket favors bonds, and vice versa.

Herrmann previously told CoinDesk that in his view, this automatic rebalancing reduces the risk to investors.

The SEC certainly appears to be paying attention to the filing. According to public documents, Commissioners Hester Peirce and Allison Herren Lee both met with representatives from Wilshire Phoenix, NYSE Arca and their law firms.

The Division of Trading and Markets met with representatives from the companies in January, as well as twice last year, to discuss the proposal. Still, the SECs thinking on the proposal remains opaque.

Wilshires Herrmann, reiterating a point often brought up in favor of bitcoin ETFs, told CoinDesk the product would allow a wider group of investors to safely access what is essentially a new asset class.

"We want to provide easy access to strategies that are often only limited to institutions or accredited investors, Herrmann said. Restraining who is able to invest in any product or strategy on the basis of socioeconomic status or for any reason is simply wrong. This leaves many exposed to sudden market volatility followed by likely losses due to lack of diversification.

The bitcoin ETF Wilshire has proposed is actually one in a larger family of such products. The company has also filed to issue a gold and Treasury-backed ETF.

Herrmann said he believes creating multiple investment strategies for consumers is a part of its overall strategy.

"We're confident we will have the bitcoin ETF soon, and the gold ETF won't be far behind. We are aiming to launch a lot more products as well, Herrmann said.

The leader in blockchain news, CoinDesk is a media outlet that strives for the highest journalistic standards and abides by a strict set of editorial policies. CoinDesk is an independent operating subsidiary of Digital Currency Group, which invests in cryptocurrencies and blockchain startups.

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SEC to Decide the Fate of Another Bitcoin ETF Proposal This Week - CoinDesk - CoinDesk

Bitcoin's (BTC) price volatility spiked in January and could further increase over the near term because whales have surfaced.

The cryptocurrencys annualized volatility grew roughly eight percentage points in January to a three-month high of 58.2 percent, according to Krakens monthly report.

Volatility rose as bitcoins price rallied from lows near $6,850 on Jan. 3 to a three-month high of $9,570 on Jan. 31. The cryptocurrency closed out January with 30 percent gains, registering its best January performance since 2013.

With the price rally, whales - those buyers of large numbers of coins - seem to have woken from their long slumber. The number of whale addresses ones with balances ranging from 1K BTC to 10k BTC ticked higher in the second half of January, as noted by Krakens researchers.

The number of whale addresses increased from 2,000 to 2,030, marking a transition to an accumulation phase from the wait and see phase seen in the last four months of 2019.

Historically, that transition has injected volatility into the bitcoin market. For instance, whales began accumulating coins in September 2018 and entered wait-and-watch mode in early 2019. Meanwhile, the annualized volatility bottomed out below 20 percent by mid-November and skyrocketed to 100 percent by the end of December.

On similar lines, the spike in price volatility in the second quarter of 2019 was preceded by accumulation by large wallets.

The peculiar behavior could be associated with whales having the resources to affect the market with large orders.

During the accumulation phase, whales eat into market liquidity, Ashish Singhal, co-founder and CEO of CRUXPay and CoinSwitch.co told CoinDesk. That affects the supply-demand ratio and causes volatility to re-enter the market.

Sudden price swings have been observed during whales accumulation period. The cryptocurrencys sharp rise from $4,100 to $5,100, seen on April 2, 2019, was reportedly caused by an order worth about $100 million spread across three exchanges.

Whale action has also led to big price sell-offs in the past; a bitcoin flash crash from $12,600 to $12,100 in less than 15 minutes on July 9, 2019, was triggered by a massive sell order of 6,500 BTC on cryptocurrency exchange Binance.

Singhal added that HODLers addresses with balances ranging from 10 BTC to 100 BTC also influence liquidity and volatility. According to historical data, volatility tends to rise once the 10 to 100 BTC cohort concludes accumulation.

As the growth in the number of addresses with 10 to 100 BTC topped out in November 2018, volatility kicked in and rose sharply from 20 percent to 100 percent. A similar divergence between the two metrics was seen during the four months to mid-July 2019.

Currently, the 10 to 100 BTC cohort is in the accumulation phase, having bottomed out in November. The number of addresses have increased from 135,000 to 137,500 over the past three months.

"Family offices, high-net-worth individuals and proprietary trading accounts have been building BTC positions continuously in the 10 to 100 range. It's a sign of growing adoption of bitcoin as an investment," Gabor Gurbacs, digital asset strategist/director at VanEck/MVIS, told CoinDesk.

If HODLers exit the accumulation phase and whales continue to snap up coins over the coming weeks, the demand supply-imbalance could worsen, resulting in a big jump in volatility.

The problem, however, is that it is difficult to predict how long these periods of accumulation for HODLers will last, said Connor Abendschein, crypto research analyst at Digital Assets Data.

The ongoing accumulation by HODLers could last at least for a few more weeks, with the cryptocurrency set to undergo mining reward halving in three months.

The rewards per block mined on bitcoins blockchain will be reduced from 12.5 BTC to 6.25 BTC at some point in May. Essentially, miners would have fewer bitcoins to sell after May, and that could lead to a supply deficit.

In the past, markets have priced in the impending supply cut by rallying to a new market cycle top (the highest point from the preceding bear market low) in the calendar year of reward halving, but on a date before the event.

Thus, if history were to repeat itself, bitcoin could rise above the June 2019 high of $13,880 before May. With such strong bullish expectations dominating the market sentiment, HODLers are unlikely to end accumulation anytime soon.

However, that does not necessarily mean volatility would crash, as whales are also likely to continue accumulating coins ahead of the reward halving.

If the whales shift to accumulating bitcoin while HODLers are still within their current phase, it would suggest an additional increase in demand for BTC at near the same as the mining supply is scheduled to be cut in half in early May, Abendschein told CoinDesk. This imbalance has the potential to not only see a spike in volatility, but also in price.

The leader in blockchain news, CoinDesk is a media outlet that strives for the highest journalistic standards and abides by a strict set of editorial policies. CoinDesk is an independent operating subsidiary of Digital Currency Group, which invests in cryptocurrencies and blockchain startups.

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On-Chain Activity Suggests Bitcoin Price Volatility Will Continue, Thanks to 'Whales' - Coindesk