Monthly Archives: July 2017

Shares of CF Industries (NYSE:CF) have dropped substantially over the past two years. The drop in share price can be attributed mostly to fertilizer prices decreasing substantially and input costs slightly increasing. However, markets have over exaggerated this through in the fertilizer price cycle and have left CF Industry shares undervalued with a high and safe 4% dividend.

CF data by YCharts

CF Industries' Balance Sheet and Cash Flow Make its Dividend Safe

CF Industries has positioned itself very well to survive the trough in the fertilizer price cycle and will easily be able to meet their planned capital expenditures, interest expense, and current dividend. After examining their Q1 Earnings Release, as of March 31, 2017, they had roughly $1.3 billion in cash and cash equivalents. On June 15, 2017, CF told investors that they received an $815 million tax refund. Therefore, I estimate they have around $2 billion in cash and cash equivalents. CF's current ratio and cash ratio show that they are in an excellent liquidity position to meet their current obligations.

CF Cash Ratio (Annual) data by YCharts

CF's operating cash flow provided $627 million in cash over the last 12 months. The company expects to have $400-450 million in capital expenditures in 2017. The company distributed $128 million to its non-controlling interest last year. Assuming that this year they have the same in operating cash flow, distribute the same to the non-controlling interest, and pay the same amount in common dividends, I estimate the company will have a decrease in cash of approximately $206 million. This would leave them with around $1.8 billion in cash starting 2018.

One last thing to consider is their solvency. According to their most recent 10Q, CF has $800 million in debt coming due in 2018 which they plan to pay back completely with cash. The next debt coming due would be in 2020 which is shown below. This leaves CF Industries with plenty of cash to continue paying their dividend while waiting for fertilizer prices to rebound.

Source: CF Industries 2017 First Quarter Form 10Q

CF Industry Has Positioned Itself for a Fertilizer Price Rebound

As we approach the bottom of the fertilizer price cycle, CF has positioned itself nicely by greatly increasing its fertilizer production capacity. According to their CEO Tony Will in their 2016 full year earnings release, capacity has increased 25% year over year. As you can see on the website Farm Futures, the price of fertilizers CF industries sells have dropped significantly over the last 2 years. Fortunately, as one of the lowest cost producers with access to cheap American natural gas, CF Industries will thrive as higher cost producers go bankrupt or shut down. Also as capital intensive as the business is, the company can still claim tax losses through depreciation and amortization to supplement cash flow.

Valuation Based on Changing Fertilizer Prices

When considering that fertilizer prices have the ability to rebound substantially from their recent bottoms, it appears that CF may be quite undervalued. The company has leveraged capacity in a way that when prices do rebound they will profit massively. As low-cost producers are forced out of the market, eventually supply will decrease and prices will rebound. If prices increase back to their 2015 levels, CF will be trading at a forward P/E of only 4.89. See the table I created below.

Source: Jones, Brock "Expected Net Income of CF Industries Based on Increased Selling Price"

Conclusion

It appears that CF Industries is not likely to cut their dividend and can safely pay it. They have plenty of funds to meet upcoming debt obligations, pay for capital expenditures, and reward shareholders with their 4% dividend yield. Although fertilizer prices may not rebound quickly, when they do CF is positioned very nicely to profit from it and likely be valued much higher. CF Industries appears to be a stock you can hold onto for the long run.

Disclosure: I am/we are long CF.

I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Additional disclosure: I am long CF call options.

Read more here:

CF Industries Is A Bargain; Their High Dividend Is Safe - Seeking Alpha

Many of us with pre-existing conditions have been following the news about the future of healthcare in the United States. It really matters to us. Those of us with cystic fibrosis are heavily reliant on accessnot only to the best doctors, but also to all of the medications we need to stay healthy. This delicate balance to keep ourselves out of the hospital is why we find ourselves nervous about any change to our healthcare system.

Kate Marshall is an 18-year-old patient with CFfrom Maine who will attend Elon University in North Carolina this fall. She recently sharedan article she wrote titled Living with cystic fibrosis I worry about the AHCAon Seacoastonline.com.

Kate starts outby writing about her 18thbirthday, a major milestone for those of us living with cystic fibrosis.

Turning [18] just a few days ago was a major celebration in my life. This is not only because I have officially entered adulthood, but have reached this milestone birthday living with a genetic disease: cystic fibrosis.

For the first time, we see that half of the CF population is older than the age of 18. This advancement is a direct result of the scientific advancements and the introduction of new therapies.

However, despite the fight to make it to make it into adulthood, the threat of a sub-par healthcare system threatens this hard work. The CF community is complex, and all forms of comprehensive insurance and assistance are needed.

As Kate states in her article, The American Health Care Act is a serious threat to not only myself, but to all residents of Maine living with a chronic illness. It is vital to have accessibility to adequate health insurance that will not come with higher premiums. As written, the AHCA allows states to let insurers charge higher prices to people with pre-existing conditions. Additionally, proposed annual and lifetime benefit caps, reduced eligibility and lack of adequate funding for Medicaid will negatively impact the course of my disease and all those living with any chronic condition.

Cystic fibrosis is not easy to treat. It can require many medications and a variety of different equipment. Each of these necessary therapies can be incredibly expensive.

Kate and many in the cystic fibrosis community and the CF Foundation share the same concerns. What is currently proposed is inadequate, and will have severe consequences on much of the CF community.

Congress has a moral responsibility to pass a plan that will support everyone, beyond those considered healthy, Kate writes. Disease transcends political party and does not discriminate due to social or economic status. Then why is our current plan in jeopardy of being replaced by a plan that discriminates based upon all of these factors?

***

Note:CysticFibrosis NewsToday is strictly a news and information website about the disease. It does not provide medical advice, diagnosis, or treatment. This content is not intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis, or treatment. Always seek the advice of your physician or other qualified health provider with any questions you may have regarding a medical condition. Never disregard professional medical advice or delay in seeking it because of something you have read on this website. The opinions expressed in this column are not those ofCysticFibrosis NewsTodayor its parent company, BioNews Services, and are intended to spark discussion about issues pertaining to cystic fibrosis.

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Kate Marshall, 18, Expresses Concerns Over Healthcare Bill - Cystic Fibrosis News Today

Earnings Clues on Nuance Communications, Inc. (NUAN), CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF) Analyst's Predictions StockNewsJournal CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:CF), at its latest closing price of $29.49, it has a price-to-book ratio of 2.10, compared to an industry average at 4.38. A lower P/B ratio could mean that the stock is undervalued. This ratio also gives some idea of ... and more »

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Earnings Clues on Nuance Communications, Inc. (NUAN), CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF) Analyst's Predictions - StockNewsJournal

This article originally appeared on BikeRadar

Nairo Quintana (Movistar) stands 167cm high, just under 5'6", but you wouldn't know that by looking at certain parts of his bike.

Okay, so his size XS Canyon Ultimate CF SLX frame shows that the Colombian climber isn't nose-to-nose with Marcel Kittel.

But his 54t big ring, for at least some of the Tour de France stages, is bigger than that of German sprinter Andr 'the gorilla' Greipel, who uses a standard 53 these days.

Similarly, Quintana's 42cm bars are wider than the 40cm bars Greipel is using to squeeze out that last bit of aerodynamic advantage.

For a climber, you could make the argument that an open chest for unrestricted breathing is more important than a small aero advantage. Greipel's bike is set up for the final 150 meters of flat stages; Quintana's is set up for the steep mountains. In any event, most of the Movistar team uses 42cm bars.

On stage 13, Quintana went on the attack, finishing second on the day and gaining back some time on the yellow jersey. However, two days later, he lost more than four minutes to his main rivals and dropped out of the top 10. He now sits in 11th place some 6:16 behind the race leader Chris Froome.

Click through the gallery above for a closer look at Quintana's Canyon Ultimate CF SLX bike.

Complete bike specifications Frame: Canyon Ultimate CF SLX Fork: Canyon One One Four SLX Stem: Canyon alloy 110mm Handlebar: Canyon H32 Ergo CF 42cm Brakes: Campagnolo Super Record 11 Brake / shift levers: Campagnolo Super Record 11 EPS Front derailleur: Campagnolo Super Record 11 EPS Rear derailleur: Campagnolo Super Record 11 EPS Cassette: Campagnolo Super Record 11, 11-27t Chain: Campagnolo Super Record 11 Crankset: Campagnolo Super Record 11, 54/42t Power meter: Power2Max Pedals: Look Keo Blade Wheelset: Campagnolo Bora Ultra 35 front and 50 rear Tubulars: Continental Competition Pro LTD, 25mm Saddle: Fizik Antares Bottle cages: Elite Cannibal

Critical measurements Rider's height: 167cm / 5ft 6in Rider's weight: 58kg / 128lb) Saddle height: 69cm Tip of saddle to bar: 53cm Saddle-to-bar drop: 8cm

Continued here:

Nairo Quintana's Tour de France Canyon Ultimate CF SLX - Gallery - Cyclingnews.com

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8:15 p.m., Fox Sports Detroit, WXYT-FM (97.1): Zimmermann squares off with AL leader in wins.

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We look back at what the Tigers did on July 23, 1967, the day things got out of control in the city. Video by Kirkland Crawford/DFP Wochit

Tigers third baseman Nick Castellanos is congratulated by teammates in the dugout after hitting a two-run home run during the 2nd inning on Monday, July 17, 2017, in Kansas City, Mo.(Photo: Jamie Squire, Getty Images)

When: 8:15 p.m.

Where: Kauffman Stadium, Kansas City, Mo.

TV: Fox Sports Detroit.

Radio: WXYT-FM (97.1; other radio affiliates).

First-pitch weather forecast: Sunny, 92 degrees.

Probable starting pitchers: RHP Jordan Zimmermann (5-7, 5.87 ERA) vs. LHP Jason Vargas (12-3, 2.62 ERA).

This year's Tigers had their worst first half since that infamous group, led by Alan Trammell, 14 seasons ago. A (brief) look back. Video by Ryan Ford/DFP Wochit

Tigers lineup:

1. Ian Kinsler, 2B 2. Nick Castellanos, 3B 3. Justin Upton, LF 4. Miguel Cabrera, 1B 5. J.D. Martinez, RF 6. Victor Martinez, DH 7. Mikie Mahtook, CF 8. Alex Avila, C 9. Jose Iglesias, SS

Game notes: After notching a series win over the Blue Jays at Comerica Park on Sunday's walk-off win in 11 innings, the Tigers travel to sweltering Kansas City for a four-game set against the Royals. K.C. is in the middle of the AL Central Division standings and four games ahead of the Tigers. Zimmermann was smashed by the Indians in his last start, July 7 against Cleveland, allowing five earned runs on eight hits in just three innings. Vargas pitched in Tuesday's All-Star Game and leads the AL in wins.

More:

Talkin' Tigers podcast: Al Avila missed boat on firing Brad Ausmus

Chances of Tigers trading Michael Fulmer? 'Probably zero,' Avila says

Live updates: Latest Detroit Tigers, MLB trade rumors!

Twitter updates:

On mobile? Tap here for live updates.

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Game thread: Tigers beat Royals, 10-2 - Detroit Free Press

Recently the total amount of Reg CF (or Regulation Crowdfunding) issuers successfully funded topped $40 million. According to the data dashboard on NextGen Crowdfunding, total amount of investor commitments has now topped $46 million. The rule created by the JOBS Act that allows companies to raise up to $1.07 million kicked off in May of 2016 and is just over a year old. So how is Reg CF (Regulation Crowdfunding) fairing? Well that depends on who you ask but if you look at sector growth there are some encouraging signs.

Heading back to NextGen, if you look at the history of active campaigns as of today there NextGen tallies 125. The graph they present shows a solid recent incline.

, a full stack crowdfunding platform that lists issuers under Reg CF, Reg D and Reg A+, in a recent blog post, co-founder Howard Marks shares their Reg CF Index:

At the end of June 2017, companies have raisedover $47M in funding through Regulation Crowdfunding.The index has increased by 21%, beating the annualized compounded growth rate of 16%

There are now 29 FINRA approved Reg CF portals but the majority of the investment offers have occurred on just a few platforms. As it stands today, these are the top Reg CF portals for total raised during 2017 according to StartEngine as of June 30th:

If you jump back and look at most active platforms since the exemption became actionable the list changes a bit with NextSeed, a debt only platform, in the top four.

Out of the top ten issuers for 2017, 6 have hit$1 million (or a bit more as the SEC increased the exemption to $1.07M this year). Common stock is the most popular security followed by SAFEs and then Debt. As one may expect, most issuers are based in California followed by Texas and New York.

Is Regulation Crowdfunding picking up momentum? Yes, it appears to be doing just that but remember the industry is still quite young. So is Reg CF perfect? No, not at all. The crowdfunding exemption has a lot or regulatory requirements that act as a speed bump that probably pushed things too far. Additionally, the exemption has been arbitrarily capped at $1.07 million far too low for many companies seeking a Seed or Series A round. In the UK, an issuer may raise up to5 million (EU rules regarding a prospectus) and industry participants expect this amount to be doubled to 10 million in the near future.

But what is encouraging is that platforms are working hard to figure things out. They are experimenting and learning as to which issuers work best and how to close successful funding rounds.

Several months back one platform predicted Reg CF will top $100 million in total raised by the end of 2017. As it stands now, it looks like this prediction will come true.

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Is Momentum Increasing for Crowdfunding Under Reg CF? - Crowdfund Insider