Daily Archives: July 8, 2017

By Kelly M. McFarland By Kelly M. McFarland July 6

President Trumps second foreign trip kicks off today in Warsaw the first leg of a trip that includes the G-20 Summit in Hamburg and a stop in Paris for Bastille Day. The trip comes in the wake of the turmoil from the presidents European trip to the G-7 meeting in May, with the additional drama of the first Trump-Putin bilateral meeting.

But for Trump and for the United States, the Warsaw stop will present a set of modern-day challenges with historical echoes. On the one hand, Trump probably will have his most favorable meetings in Poland. Warsaws right-wing government and anti-immigration stance, among other things, are more in line with his administrations anti-internationalist stance.

[This is what the gradual erosion of rule of law looks like in Poland]

On the other hand, Poland like much of Europe will also be looking for Trump to put European allies at ease, and make a strong U.S. commitment to NATOs Article 5 treaty. Poland, along with the NATO member states bordering Russia, is fearful of Russias recent aggression spreading westward.

Poland and Estonia are two of only five NATO members that meet the target of spending 2 percentof gross domestic producton defense, a commitment NATO members agreed to work toward after the 2014 Wales Summit. Three other nations in the region, Romania, Latvia and Lithuania, are set to join this list by next year.

Article 5 is the glue holding NATO together

What all of these countries want to hear is a firm statement on Article 5 of the NATO treaty which simply stipulates that an attack on one alliance nation is an attack on them all. This is the core of the NATO alliance, and U.S. adherence to Article 5 dominates alliance members calculations, especially in Eastern Europe. AlthoughTrump pledged U.S. adherence to Article 5 during a June news conference with the Romanian president, many in the alliance remain uncertain, given the presidents failure to make a public commitment during his speech to fellow NATO leaders in May.

[Trump isnt a huge fan of NATO. But his complaints are off target.]

Collective defense was the core of the NATO alliances formation and credibility in 1949, and it remains so. As a crucial first step in NATOs creation and a prerequisite as far as the United States was concerned Britain, France, Belgium, the Netherlands and Luxembourg proved that they could come together for collective defense in the 1948 Brussels Treaty. To solidify a credible deterrent to the Soviet Union, the defense pact needed to expand to include the United States.

The biggest hurdle for the Truman administration at the time was overcoming a historical antipathy against alliances to create the first entangling alliance since the 1778 treaty with France. Realizing what was at stake in the growing Cold War, the administration worked across the political aisle to get key Republicans on board, most notably Sen. Arthur Vandenberg (R-Mich). In short, Vandenberg crafted the requisite legislation that would allow the United States to bind itself to the progressive development of regional and other collective self-defense.

As NATO historian Stanley R. Sloan points out, Today, the collective defense commitment still endows the North Atlantic Treaty with special meaning. It is a potential deterrent against would-be enemies of the allies and a source of reassurance should future threats develop.

Historically, Poland could use some reassurance

Poland hasnt had the best of luck controlling its sovereignty over the past two centuries. It was partitioned between regional powers in the late 1700s and gained independence only in 1918. As we know from more recent history, that didnt last long.

The Nazi-Soviet Non-Aggression Pact of August 1939 divided Poland between Hitlers Germany and Stalins Soviet Union. On Sept. 1, 1939, the German invasion of Poland launched World War II. Berlin eventually reneged on the pact and invaded the Soviet Union in the summer of 1941. The Poles, especially Polish Jews, would suffer some of the worst atrocities of the war.

The Soviet Red Armys liberation of Poland in 1945 and the conclusion of World War II didnt give Warsaw much of a break. Stalin sought a sphere of influence in Eastern Europe to act as a buffer between himself and the West, the direction from which Russias adversaries had come twice in the past 30 years. Against American protests, the Soviets installed a Moscow-friendly communist government in Warsaw, ushering in close to 45 years of Soviet dominance. Warsaw would also become the namesake for the pro-Soviet alliance system the Warsaw Pact created in 1955 to become NATOs counterfoil.

NATOs front lines have shifted

During the Cold War, if a hot war between NATO and the Warsaw Pact was going to begin, the chances were it would begin in a divided Berlin. For more than40 years, the two sides stared at one anotheracross dividing lines with names such asCheckpoint Charlie and weathered a major crisis from 1958 to 1961. The Berlin Walls fall in 1989, Germanys unification and the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 ended the Cold War and nightmares of Soviet tanks crossing into Western Europe.

In the past 25 years, NATO expanded eastward to include former Warsaw Pact members such asPoland, as well as former Soviet states. As tensions with a resurgent Russia have risen, many of these states worry that, as in Ukraine and Crimea, the Russians will find a pretext to initiate a hybrid war in the region to regain lost influence and control. This is why such a large portion of Russias neighbors in Europe spend at least 2 percent of GDP on defense, or will by 2018.

[Trumps national security adviser wants to water down U.S. NATO commitments. Heres what that means.]

As the Monkey Cage has noted, NATO stepped up its involvement in Eastern Europe in response to Russias actions in Ukraine, including Obama administration-ordered troop increases in Poland and other Eastern European nations. Poland and its Baltic neighbors will be looking for Trump to give strong assurances in a major speech he will deliver in Poland. Mediareports after Trumps May speech at NATO headquarters note that it appears the president intentionally removed a sentence reaffirming U.S. adherence to Article 5.

According to national security adviser H.R. McMaster, the president will reiterate Americas commitment to NATOs common defense this week in Poland. Whether this is a formal adherence to Article 5, a common understanding of the threat Russia poses to the region, or continued backing of American forces in the Baltics and Poland remains to be seen.

Kelly M. McFarlandis a U.S. diplomatic historian and director of programs and research at Georgetown Universitys Institute for the Study of Diplomacy and an adjunct professor in the Walsh School of Foreign Service.

Continued here:
As Trump leaves for Europe, a question looms: Will he really commit to NATO once and for all? - Washington Post

Construction Mechanic 2nd Class Steven Montgomery, assigned to Naval Mobile Construction Battalion (NMCB) 1, directs an amphibious assault vehicle during exercise BALTOPS 17 in Putlos, Germany. US Navy Photo

ABOARD AMPHIBIOUS WARSHIP USS ARLINGTON BALTOPS 2017, now in its 45thyear as an annual naval exercise, took place during the first two weeks of June in a Baltic Sea region that continues to be tense with Russias continued assertiveness, which became apparent with the violent annexation of Crimea from Ukraine in 2014.

Some fifty ships and fifty aircraft, along with 4,000 personnel from, among others, the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany, the Netherlands, Denmark, Norway, and Estonia participated in the exercise that has shifted focus over the last few years towards preparing for high-end warfighting. And BALTOPS is not about a theoretical threat, but a rejuvenated Russian navy that is increasingly active and capable in the Baltic Sea, the North Atlantic, and the Black Sea, with activities ranging from stepped up submarine patrols to deployments to the Mediterranean where Russian surface ships and submarines have fired cruise missiles against targets ashore in Syria.

The growing Russian challenge at sea caused the then-commander of the US Sixth Fleet, Vice Adm. James Foggo, to pen a widely read article with the title The Fourth Battle of the Atlantic in 2016. To boot, in the Baltic Sea one is never too far from the coast, meaning that Russias land-based anti-ship missiles can target much of the regional maritime domain.

An assault amphibious vehicle drives across the beach in Ustka, Poland, during an amphibious landing demonstration during exercise BALTOPS 2017. US Navy Photo

The two-week exercise included a week of phased training and rehearsals on crucial elements of naval and amphibious warfighting, including mine hunting, air defense, anti-submarine warfare, and beach landings; all elements required for NATO to be able to fight through the anti-access/area-denial network that Russia is building in its Kaliningrad enclave in the southeast corner of the Baltic Sea and gain access across the sea to NATOs Baltic members, arguably the geographically most exposed members of the Alliance.

The second week of BALTOPS saw free play in a game scenario intended to simulate potential contingencies in the region sometime in the future.

Along with national contributions to BALTOPS the exercise also saw the participation of Standing NATO Maritime Group One (SNMG1), currently consisting of frigates and destroyers from Norway, Denmark, the Netherlands and Canada, along with the Standing NATO Mine Countermeasures Group One (SNMCMG1).

170614-N-PF515-003 USTKA, Poland (June 14, 2017) Polish sailors participate in an amphibious landing demonstration during exercise BALTOPS 2017. The premier annual maritime-focused exercise is conducted in the Baltic region and is one of the largest exercises in Northern Europe. (U.S. Navy photo by Chief Mass Communication Specialist America A. Henry/Released)

Both formations have led quiet existences during the post-Cold War era, and NATO has at times struggled to fully fill the maritime groups with rotational contributions from the allies. And while SNMG1 was originally intended to operate in Europes northern waters, it has been used for counter-piracy missions off the Horn of Africa and for presence in the Red Sea and around the coasts of Africa. Now, however, SNMG1 and SNMCMG1 are both back in northern waters, and with seemingly more allies willing to contribute ships and personnel to participate in the groups.

To reorient NATOs member navies back to high-end warfighting is no easy task, and will require reinvestment in capabilities, a change of mindset, and more exercises like BALTOPS that get increasingly more sophisticated during each iteration. BALTOPS 2017 specifically focused on the integration between maritime forces and air power, which included a B-52 and a B-1 along with Polish F-16s. This year, the majority of the BALTOPS exercise was also geographically focused in the southern Baltic Sea, with much of the naval action off the coast of Germany, and with amphibious landings in Poland and Latvia.

BALTOPS forms part of a broader effort to bolster NATOs ability to provide defense and deterrence at sea. Shortly after BALTOPS concluded the action moved to the North Atlantic off the coast of Iceland, where NATO member forces trained for anti-submarine warfare with ships, submarines, and maritime patrol aircraft in the exercise Dynamic Mongoose, with several of the ships that participated in BALTOPS present.

Vice Adm. Christopher Grady, commander of Naval Striking and Support Forces NATO, delivers remarks at a reception aboard the San Antonio-class amphibious transport dock ship USS Arlington (LPD-24) during exercise BALTOPS 2017. US Navy Photo

In mid-July NATO navies will kick off the exercise Sea Breeze 2017 in the Black Sea, which also will include ships from the Ukrainian navy. And beyond stepped up exercises such as BALTOPS, NATO is also considering its future role in the maritime domain at the strategic level. After much resistance within the Alliance there now seems to be movement towards a rewrite of the Alliance Maritime Strategy, first rolled out in 2011 in a very different security environment.

There are also active discussions about bringing back NATOs Atlantic Command; a maritime command structure disbanded after the end of the Cold War, but once again relevant in order for NATO to be able to better command and control operations in the broader North Atlantic and facilitate reinforcements from the United States to Europe across the sea. BALTOPS will return to the Baltic Sea next summer, for another turn of the wheel towards preparing NATOs navies for a fight in tight quarters.

Original post:
NATO and US Baltic Sea Exercises Highlight Ongoing Tensions with Russian Forces - USNI News

WASHINGTON U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson said on Friday he had chosen an envoy to lead U.S. diplomacy on the Ukraine crisis, adding that he had moved to fill the position at the urging of Russia's leader.

Former U.S. Ambassador to NATO Kurt Volker, a longtime diplomat, will be responsible for advancing U.S. interests as set out in the 2015 Minsk agreement to curb the conflict in Ukraine's Donbass region. He will accompany Tillerson to Kiev on Sunday, the State Department said.

Russia annexed Ukraine's Crimea region in 2014, and Kiev accuses it of backing pro-Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine, an allegation the Kremlin denies. The Minsk agreement called for a ceasefire in eastern Ukraine, the withdrawal of heavy weapons from the front line and constitutional reform to give eastern Ukraine more autonomy.

"At the request of President (Vladimir) Putin, the United States has appointed ... a special representative for Ukraine, Ambassador Kurt Volker," Tillerson told reporters after a meeting between Putin and U.S. President Donald Trump on the sidelines of the G20 summit in Hamburg, Germany.

Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko welcomed the choice, writing in a message on Twitter that it would help end what he called Russian aggression and restore Crimea to Ukraine.

"Important & timely move in the interests of ending Russian aggression and restoration of Ukraine's territorial integrity, including Crimea," Poroshenko tweeted.

Volker was a career diplomat who served as permanent representative to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization under Republican President George W. Bush and Democratic President Barack Obama. He is currently a foreign policy and national security expert at the McCain Institute for International Leadership at Arizona State University.

"Kurt's wealth of experience makes him uniquely qualified to move this conflict in the direction of peace," Tillerson said in a statement. "The United States remains fully committed to the objectives of the Minsk agreements, and I have complete confidence in Kurt to continue our efforts to achieve peace in Ukraine."

Julie Smith, a former Pentagon official who worked on European and NATO policy during the Obama administration, praised the choice of Volker as Ukraine envoy, but said she was puzzled at Tillerson's statement that he filled the position at Putin's request.

"So Ukraine didn't matter enough to this administration to have them appoint a special envoy in the first place?" said Smith, now a senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security. "It was a bizarre word choice."

(Reporting by Susan Heavey and Doina Chiacu in Washington and Jeff Mason in Hamburg; Editing by Bernard Orr and Jonathan Oatis)

HAMBURG In a meeting that ran longer than either side had planned, U.S. President Donald Trump and Russia's Vladimir Putin discussed alleged Russian meddling in the U.S. election on Friday but agreed to focus on better ties rather than litigating the past.

HAMBURG Leaders from the world's top economies meet to forge a consensus on trade and climate change on Saturday after setting their staff to work through the night to find agreements that eluded them on the first day of their summit.

Originally posted here:
US taps ex-envoy to NATO to resolve Ukraine crisis - Reuters

Ukraine is set to welcome Nato Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg on July 10th. The visit coincides with the 20th anniversary of the distinctive partnership between NATO and Ukraine and high ranked officials hope it will provide an opportunity to discuss Ukraines prospects of joining the Alliance.

In an exclusive interview for Euronews, the Head of the Ukrainian Parliament Andriy Parubiy stressed that in June Ukrainian MPs adopted a draft law that sets membership of the Alliance as a priority for the country. On the July 6th, the bill was signed by Petro Poroshenko. Now Ukraine needs to step-up its reforms to comply with NATO standards

The Ukrainian army is becoming one of the most powerful armies in the region, he explains. Moreover, the army has real combat experience, the experience of modern warfare which means the Ukrainian army is capable of defending not only the Ukrainian border, but also the eastern border of NATO, and the eastern border of the entire free world.

But experts are not so optimistic about prospects of joining Nato. Oleksandr Sushko, Research Director of the Institute for Euro-Atlantic ooperation, says even receiving a Membership Action Plan is a long-term outlook for Ukraine mainly because of the ongoing military conflict with Russia.

Although there is no direct ban on the accession of a belligerent country, there is a logic which means granting NATO membership to a country must add stability and security to the Alliance and the world as a whole,,explains Oleksandr Sushko. There is a large group of NATO members who would not like to increase tensions in relations with Russia. And it is clear that any move towards Ukraines accession will mean additional tension.

In February, President Poroshenko said he would put Nato membership to a referendum. Recent polls show strong support for membership among Ukrainians.

If a NATO membership referendum was held this year, almost 70% of voters would say yes according to recent surveys. What is remarkable is that since 2012 the number of the North Atlantic Alliance supporters has tripled in the country. The main reason for this is the armed conflict in Ukrainian Donbass. says Euronews journalist Maria Korenyuk.

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NATO Secretary General to visit Ukraine - euronews