Monthly Archives: June 2017

Don Winslow Artfully Demolishes the War on Drugs – Daily Beast

Posted: June 17, 2017 at 2:34 pm

Do not let author Don Winslow get started on Attorney General Jeff Sessions. Beauregard, Winslow practically sneers, referring to the AG by his very Confederate-sounding middle name, wants to take us back to the good old days, when we were throwing two million people into prison. He thinks the war on drugs was a good idea, and that we were winning. But drugs are more plentiful, powerful, and cheaper than ever before. If thats victory, I would hate to see defeat.

Winslow is, of course, referring to Sessions recent order that all federal prosecutors pursue the strictest possible sentences, including for non-violent drug offenders. Winslow sees this as a return to a failed policy of mass incarceration, and hes one writer who knows what hes talking about. The critically acclaimed authors most famous worksThe Power of the Dog, Savages, and The Cartelare centered on drugs and drug policy. His new novel, The Force, is also drug-centered, examining corruption in the New York Police Department and featuring a crooked cop named Denny Malone who, along with his partners, steals millions of dollars worth of heroin after a major bust. Think of it as a cross between a hard-core New York tale by Richard Price and the classic 1981 Sidney Lumet film Prince of the City.

Its that readable, and that bleak.

Ive always wanted to write a New York cop book, says Winslow, 63, who was born in the city and raised in Rhode Island but whose best known books are set in California (where he now lives) and Mexico. Back when I was living in New Yorkwhere he worked for a chain of movie theaters, and as a private investigatorI would see classic crime films like Serpico, Prince of the City, and The French Connection, and theyre part of the reason I became a crime writer. So after I finished The Cartel [set mostly in Mexico, and soon to be filmed by Ridley Scott], I wanted to get back to New York.

The Force is so awash in corruption, from the lowest beat cop to the mayors office, that it seems hyper-unreal. But Winslow insists what hes writing about is the real deal, that every 20 years or so there is a major corruption scandal in the NYPD. He points to a recent bribes-to-obtain-gun-licenses probe involving crooked cops and prosecutors, but adds that its not just the NYPD, its Chicago, the LAPD, Baltimore. One of the points I was trying to make in the book, we always talk about cops being corrupt, but what about lawyers, judges, the mayors office? Its not worse in New York, its just largereverything is larger in New York.

Winslow is no hard-core cop hater. In fact, researching and writing The Force, which took several years, helped him sympathize with the extremely tough job the police have to do, and the harsh conditions they have to deal with.

The thing that surprised me a little bit about cops, he says, is how deeply they feel what they do. You tend to think they get jaded, and they do, and they come across as stoic, but when you talk to them about cases and stories, the work has an impact on them. When you watch TV shows, you see them joking about victimsand that happensbut when they talk about certain victims and crimes they have more empathy than you would be led to believe. I talked to veteran cops who sat there with tears streaming down their faces talking about their cases.

In fact, the cops in The Force, no matter how corrupt, believe they are fighting the good fight, taking down drug dealers, gangbangers, and murderers by any means necessary. Malone, who considers himself the king of Manhattan North, heads an elite squad of detectives given unrestricted authority to rid their area of human scum. The parallels with the Daniel Ciello character (played by Treat Williams) in Prince of the City are unmistakable, including the ultimate fall from gracepressed by the Feds, both men wind up informing on their partners.

Winslow says that if nothing else, his book shows how complicated a cops life can be, how complicated issues of right and wrong can be. This guy Malone gets himself into a trap where he has no good choices. Who do you betray?

But back to Jeff Sessions and Winslows other bte noire, The Wall. Winslow has long argued that the only way to break the cartels is to legalize all drugs, and has even written about it for The Daily Beast. He has said the drug war is unwinnable, that there is no end in sight. And the Trump administrations attempts to build a barrier across our southern border, accompanied by a hardline prosecutorial stance, have not changed his mind.

Trump and these guys claim to be businessmen, he says, but they dont understand economics. Lets assume you could build a wall, and it could be a deterrent, but it does not affect demand. Anything you do to make the supply more difficult, raises the supplies and raises the profits. Thats just basic high school economics.

Winslow believes that whatever gets builtThere will be something and they will call it a wall, he saysis a fantasy. Certain parts of the terrain make wall building impractical; some of the wall would have to pass through privately owned lands, which invites endless lawsuits; and part of the wall would have to pass through territory owned on both sides of the border by the Tohono Oodham tribe, creating even more legal issues.

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Besides, says Winslow, any wall would actually have huge gates, and they are called San Diego, El Paso, and Laredo. Most of the drugs come in by trucks, and everyone knows this, but it would be impossible to minutely inspect every truck crossing the borderover 2 million annually in Laredo alone.

So whats the end game? You have to wait it out, says Winslow. Towards the end of the Obama administration, they started to get realistic about drug and prison policies. Now we are going back to the old days, but I think there are people who are rational on this topic. Its an issue where right and left meet, but its a generational thing also. I think its a matter of waiting for some people to become extinct. Because they never change.

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Don Winslow Artfully Demolishes the War on Drugs - Daily Beast

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Gambling on a younger clientele – NewsTimes – Danbury News Times

Posted: at 2:33 pm

Photo: Carol Kaliff / Hearst Connecticut Media

Andy Uhl, left, of Granby, and Natarhj Gosavi, of Simsbury have lunch at Bobby V's Restaurant and Sports Bar in Windsor Locks, Wednesday, June 14, 2017.

Andy Uhl, left, of Granby, and Natarhj Gosavi, of Simsbury have lunch at Bobby V's Restaurant and Sports Bar in Windsor Locks, Wednesday, June 14, 2017.

Patrons watch races and place bets in the Bradley Teletheater in Windsor Locks Wednesday, June 14, 2017.

Patrons watch races and place bets in the Bradley Teletheater in Windsor Locks Wednesday, June 14, 2017.

Rich Mastrangelo of Springfield, Mass., left, and Cliff Lane of East Windsor, follow the horse races at the Turf Club Restaurant At The Bradley Teletheater in Windsor Locks Wednesday, June 14, 2017.

Rich Mastrangelo of Springfield, Mass., left, and Cliff Lane of East Windsor, follow the horse races at the Turf Club Restaurant At The Bradley Teletheater in Windsor Locks Wednesday, June 14, 2017.

Patrons watch races and place bets in the Bradley Teletheater in Windsor Locks Wednesday, June 14, 2017.

Patrons watch races and place bets in the Bradley Teletheater in Windsor Locks Wednesday, June 14, 2017.

Patrons of the Bradley Teletheater in Windsor Locks, head to the teller window to place bets, Wednesday, June 14, 2017.

Patrons of the Bradley Teletheater in Windsor Locks, head to the teller window to place bets, Wednesday, June 14, 2017.

Bobby V's Restaurant and Sports Bar in Windsor Locks has an age restriction in the betting area. Photo Wednesday, June 14, 2017

Bobby V's Restaurant and Sports Bar in Windsor Locks has an age restriction in the betting area. Photo Wednesday, June 14, 2017

Wagering terminals are available to patrons of Bobby V's Restaurant and Sports Bar in Windsor Locks, Wednesday, June 14, 2017.

Wagering terminals are available to patrons of Bobby V's Restaurant and Sports Bar in Windsor Locks, Wednesday, June 14, 2017.

Patrons sit at the bar at Bobby V's Restaurant and Sports Bar in Windsor Locks ,Wednesday, June 14, 2017

Patrons sit at the bar at Bobby V's Restaurant and Sports Bar in Windsor Locks ,Wednesday, June 14, 2017

Patrons visit the Bradley Teletheater in Windsor Locks, Wednesday, June 14, 2017.

Patrons visit the Bradley Teletheater in Windsor Locks, Wednesday, June 14, 2017.

Rich Mastrangelo of Springfield, Mass., studies statistics on upcoming horse races at the Turf Club in Windsor Locks Wednesday, June 14, 2017.

Rich Mastrangelo of Springfield, Mass., studies statistics on upcoming horse races at the Turf Club in Windsor Locks Wednesday, June 14, 2017.

Patrons watch races and place bets in the Bradley Teletheater in Windsor Locks Wednesday, June 14, 2017.

Patrons watch races and place bets in the Bradley Teletheater in Windsor Locks Wednesday, June 14, 2017.

Rich Mastrangelo of Springfield, Mass., studies statistics on upcoming horse races at the Turf Club in Windsor Locks Wednesday, June 14, 2017.

Rich Mastrangelo of Springfield, Mass., studies statistics on upcoming horse races at the Turf Club in Windsor Locks Wednesday, June 14, 2017.

Patrons watch races and place bets in the Bradley Teletheater in Windsor Locks Wednesday, June 14, 2017.

Patrons watch races and place bets in the Bradley Teletheater in Windsor Locks Wednesday, June 14, 2017.

Bobby V's Restaurant and Sports Bar in Windsor Locks includes an OTB Teletheater. Photo Wed., June 14, 2017.

Bobby V's Restaurant and Sports Bar in Windsor Locks includes an OTB Teletheater. Photo Wed., June 14, 2017.

Bobby V's Restaurant and Sports Bar in Windsor Locks, Wednesday, June 14, 2017

Bobby V's Restaurant and Sports Bar in Windsor Locks, Wednesday, June 14, 2017

Gambling on a younger clientele

WINDSOR LOCKS - In 1946, a baker told a young Nick Chaclas not to get too interested in the horses.

This week, Chaclas was in his favorite betting carrel at the OTB Teletheater near Bradley International Airport, cheering with a pumping fist as the horses at Belmont Park cleared the final turn.

Then the 91-year-old World War II Navy veteran let out an expletive and turned away from the monitor.

What happened?

Nothing happened, Chaclas said with a laugh about his losing bet. He just died.

Chaclas didnt heed the bakers advice.

No, I didnt, did I? a smiling Chaclas said. I dont win too often, I can tell you, but I have been playing for 71 years and I havent got sick of it yet.

If Chaclas sounds like the quintessential off-track-betting patron, perhaps he is. But hes not the future of OTB.

Instead, the future of off-track betting in Connecticut is the new sports bar restaurant and OTB facility that opened Friday on Stamfords Atlantic Street - and a similar concept planned for downtown Danbury: a multi-generation place with upscale food, craft beers, scores of televised sports and off-track betting mixed in.

Not too many places have done what we have done to make OTB an entertainment destination, where you combine all these things in one property, says Ted Taylor, the president of Sportech Venues, which holds the exclusive OTB license in Connecticut.

Sportech, which has 16 OTB facilities statewide, believes it has found a growth formula in an industry that has been slow to engage the younger generation. The London-based company processes $13 billion in bets in 30 countries annually, and has recently invested $10 million to improve its facilities in Connecticut.

The wagering is just a piece of our overall DNA; we are evolving into food and beverage operator with wagering in our venues, said Paul Dionne, Sportechs director of marketing. We are not trying to hide it: If we are going to continue to do positive business in Connecticut, we need to be more than just horse-racing.

The state Legislature apparently agrees. Earlier this month, both houses passed legislation giving Sportech six more OTB licenses, for a total of 24.

The legislation, which is yet to be signed by the governor, is part of the changing gaming landscape in a state that is struggling with a $5 billion budget deficit over the next two years.

The state gets a 1.9 percent cut of every bet made at a Sportech OTB, or about $6 million annually. Local government gets its own 1.6 percent cut of every bet.

Stamford stands to get about $200,000 annually from the new Bobby Vs Restaurant & Sports Bar. In Danbury, where plans to open a similar venue have been set back by a lawsuit and a technical error during the approval process, the citys estimated annual share is $100,000.

The Danbury restaurant owner who has agreed to let Sportech spend $750,000 to transform his Ives Street eatery into a sports bar and wagering venue said the downtown entertainment district needs places that will attract crowds.

I had concerns initially about what type of concept this is, and how it is going to help the downtown, and what my average customer is going to look like coming in, said Tom Devine, owner of Two Steps Downtown Grille. I visited a couple of the Sportech facilities that are now high-end sports bars with gaming components, and the one in Stamford blew me away.

Stamford was built on the model developed in Windsor Locks - involving a partnership with former New York Mets manager Bobby Valentine and his restaurant business.

The Stamford venue boasts 200 high-definition screens, a family-friendly Bobby Vs restaurant on the first floor, and a 21-and-older sports bar and wagering venue on the second floor.

Taylor would not say where Sportech is looking to locate six more OTB venues in Connecticut. His priority is bringing the Danbury venue online first, he said.

Taylor added that the company is likely to invest first in existing venues such as Norwalk, where the food and drinks selection is limited to vending machines.

Betting on the future

The gaming landscape is changing. Nowhere is that clearer than in Windsor Locks, at the 38,000-square-foot facility where Sportech spent $4.5 million to create a Bobby Vs Restaurant and Sports Bar.

The restaurant portion of the building is a modern sports bar with 80 televisions and two dozen craft beers on tap. The dcor is bright. Middle-aged couples talk casually over cheeseburgers and salads.

The Teletheater portion of the building has a much older feel. Shaped like an auditorium with stadium-style seating, this is the part of the building where most of the betting happens. It has a 125 betting carrels - cubicle-like stations with monitors where men spread their race sheets for the best bets.

The wall they face is filled with large monitors featuring horse races, greyhound races, and a few jai alai matches. In the back of the Teletheater are a handful of tellers who take bets, although plenty of men use the betting machines beneath the race screens.

I am a handicapper par excellence, says Cliff Lane, 82, a retired salesman from East Windsor.

Hes kidding. He used to be a good handicapper.

You cant handicap these horses anymore - its impossible, Lane says with smile. What you have to do is bet the jockeys and the trainers.

So how is he doing so far?

The races havent started, so we are doing great, Lane says. We are in the hole about $30 counting programs and lunch.

Lane and his friend are among the retirees who make up the base of the sport.

This is the OTB old guard.

We look at this and we realize this cant be the future of our business, Dionne said during a recent tour of Windsor Locks. We want to bring better things than just a venue only for wagering.

The Danbury wager

Sportechs plans in Danbury are modest compared to those for Windsor Locks and Stamford, but the proposal has been set back by opposition and a technical error in the application.

Plans call for the conversion of Devines first floor into a restaurant and sports bar, with a separate entrance and an elevator to the 21-and-over second floor, where there will be a second bar and an off-track betting section.

Up to 20 betting carrels are planned in an atrium on the second floor, along with betting machines, a counter with two tellers, and restaurant seating for at least 80 people.

Some people may say that from a religious point of view, they are against gambling, and you cant argue too much with that, said Devine, who would lease the betting venue to Sportech. But when people talk about safety and you look at the scope of this project and the players that are involved, it just doesnt make sense.

Devine received approval from the citys Zoning Commission for the Sportech partnership. That cleared the way for him to seek final approval from the City Council.

But a businesswoman who just opened a caf downtown sued to overturn the zoning decision, arguing in part that there were technical errors in the application.

Specifically, Devines request for a zoning variance was not filed with Danburys clerk in advance of the public hearing as required. That means Devine will have to reapply for approval, a process that he has already begun.

This block has seen 55 places come and go in the time we have been here, Devine said. We need more draws to the downtown. A sports bar would do that.

rryser@newstimes.com; 203-731-3342

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Gambling on a younger clientele - NewsTimes - Danbury News Times

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NFL reaches settlement with charity over gambling policy – USA TODAY

Posted: at 2:33 pm

A nonprofit whose charity event was forced to relocate by the NFL recently asked a judge to demand league commissioner Roger Goodell explain the league's gambling policy.(Photo: Paul Beaty, AP)

The NFL has reached a settlement with a youth charity that sued the league for fraud over how the league enforced its gambling policy at a casino near Las Vegas in 2015.

Terms of the settlement were not disclosed. But the agreement to closethe federal court case comesabout a week after the charity asked a federal judge to compel NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell to testify under oath about the leagues gambling policy.

It also comes just a few days after USA TODAY Sports reported on the prospect of Goodells testimony as the league finds itself in an increasingly conflicted position about casinos and gambling.

All I am at liberty to say is that the case has settled, Julie Pettit, an attorney for the charity, told USA TODAY Sports Friday.

The Sept. 25 trial date for the case was terminated on Friday as a result. The NFL declined comment.

The charity, Strikes for Kids, sued the league last year, saying it was misled by the league and lost revenue after being forced to relocate a bowling event for kids in 2015. More than 100 boys and girls were invited to the event at a bowling alley that was to feature more than 25 NFL players as the star attraction.

The problem was the location, according to the NFL. The event originally was to take place at a 72-lane bowling alley inside the Sunset Station hotel and casino. Before the event took place, an NFL lawyer notified the charity that this would violate the leagues gambling policy, which forbids players and personnel from making promotional appearances at casinos.

In response, the charity moved to the Brooklyn Bowl, a bowling alley with only 16 lanes available but physically not located inside a casino building. The NFL said this location was OK even though it was still part of the LINQ casino promenade near the Las Vegas strip.

To push its case, the charity wanted to question Goodell about why one casino-related bowling alley was OK but the other was not. It said it lost money and sponsors because it was forced to move to a smaller venue.

There's only one person that can tell us what's the difference between the non-approved venue and the approved venue (Goodell), Pettit told a federal magistrate judge last month. And he's this Oz behind the curtain, this person that the NFL will not allow us to talk to. And everyone points their finger at him, saying he's the only one that can make that determination.

The magistrate judge denied the charitys request to force Goodell to testify, but the charity filed objections to that decision last week and tried again with a different judge a decision that was pending until the settlement.

It was the latest legal entanglement the NFL found itself in over its gambling policy. Even after the league recently approved the relocation of the Oakland Raiders to the casino capital of Las Vegas, the policy shows the league is still invested in the notion that casinos are forbidden places for its players and personnel.

In 2015, Pettits firm also sued the league on behalf of a fantasy football company affiliated with former Dallas Cowboys quarterback Tony Romo. In that case, the company was set to a stage a fantasy football event at a convention facility that was not inside a casino but was near one, the Venetian, and owned by a casino company, the Las Vegas Sands.

Citing its gambling policy, the NFL essentially forbid Romo and others from appearing at this event, forcing its cancellation.

The NFL said it had the right to do so under its collective bargaining agreement with players. A judge in Texas agreed last year and threw the case out. But the company appealed, and that case is still pending.

In another case, outside of court, the league recently confirmed it was still reviewing a decision about what to do about players appearing at an arm-wrestling event at a Las Vegas casino in April.

While the leagues gambling policy prohibits players and personnel from making promotional appearances at casinos, teams are allowed to accept limited advertising from certain casinos. The Arizona Cardinals also recently has had discussions with a casino company, Gila River Gaming Enterprises, about the possibility of the company buying naming rights to the teams stadium.

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NFL reaches settlement with charity over gambling policy - USA TODAY

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Stop Gambling On A 7.66% Yield When The 7.51% Offers Less Risk – Seeking Alpha

Posted: at 2:33 pm

Subscribers to the Mortgage REIT Forum received early access to this report.

Capstead Mortgage Corporation (NYSE:CMO) is overvalued. While I believe the preferred shares are a great bargain, the same cannot be said about the common stock. CMO trades extremely close to the lowest dividend yield on record and at a much higher-than-normal price-to-book ratio. While management is excellent, the team is facing macroeconomic problems. There is very little management can do to combat these problems. It isn't a matter of skill; it is a matter of the yield curve. As CMO faces these challenges, despite all the problems, the stock rallies back toward the highest levels seen in years. This is a case of high risk and limited reward.

The Dividend Yield

This might seem incredibly simplistic compared to much of my analysis, but sometimes the truth is staring us in the face. We need only to recognize it and accept it. The following chart shows the price and dividend yield over the last few years:

I had a buy rating on the common shares and established a position at the point identified by the green line. The rating was shared with subscribers first, but I brought out the public strong buy rating on October 24th, 2016. At the time, my analysis was focused heavily on the discount to book value. CMO was severely out of favor with analysts and investors. The premise for their bearishness was the collapsing net interest spreads. Ironically, that is precisely the argument I am making today.

The price is back to where it was about two years ago, when it started a fierce decline. The dividend yield on the other hand is only 8.33%, much lower than it was before. When we see the same price with a lower dividend yield, it reflects a lower dividend rate. CMO has been forced to cut its dividend due to the impact of both expected prepayments and actual prepayments.

Yields, Spreads, and Amortization

In the future, I want to put together a little series diving through the fundamentals of how CMO works. I think many investors today don't fully understand the mREIT. In the following slide, from its Q1 2017 presentation, I'm highlighting the yield on assets, the financing spreads, and the amortization. Don't worry; I'll explain each of those. For investors who want to access older presentations, use the index of presentations.

Here we go:

The most recent data is on the left and the oldest data is on the right. In the green, you can see the yield on all interest-earning assets was 1.67%. This is the highest level reported since Q1 2016. If it were a mere 3 basis points higher, it would be higher than any seen in the last two years.

On the third line down, you can see the finance spread. That is the yield on assets minus the cost of borrowing. That is trending higher because the Federal Reserve is raising the rate on short-term borrowings by offering to pay banks more interest on excess reserves. Those are payments made to banks to compensate them for not doing their job (lending money). When the Federal Reserve raises the short-term rate, the mortgage REITs must pay a higher rate to remain competitive.

So why hasn't the cost risen faster? Simple. CMO hedges out a material portion of its exposure.

So that leaves investors wondering: If CMO hedged part of its exposure to rising rates, why is there a problem?

The problem is that spread of .68 (from line 3) is not sustainable. The strength of the spread actually comes from the red box. That is the impact of premium amortization on the spreads. CMO is buying adjustable rate mortgages and paying more than par value for them. That is perfectly normal. Because it pays more than par value, say $102.50 for a mortgage with a balance of $100.00, it has to recognize the cost of that extra $2.50 over the life of the loan. If CMO didn't have to recognize that expense, the yield on assets would be 2.60%. That is shown one line above the red box. In the first quarter, CMO reported the lowest value of the last four quarters for this expense. It was reducing asset yields from 2.60% to 1.67%. This is referred to as 93 basis points. In the prior three quarters this ran 105, 106, and 96 basis points respectively.

I am convinced this expense will increase materially for Q2, Q3, and probably Q4 of 2017 compared to the values reported for Q1 2017.

Why Will Amortization Charges Increase?

The problem comes down to how quickly prepayments are coming in. We are entering a period where prepayments should be elevated. You're probably aware that short-term rates are increasing, right? How many homeowners do you recall talking to who are completely clueless about short-term rates increasing? At this point, I think it is fairly common knowledge.

That makes it less appealing to have an adjustable-rate mortgage. Homeowners who currently have those loans outstanding have an incentive to refinance into a fixed-rate mortgage. When that happens, the owner of the adjustable rate (such as CMO) is forced to eat the loss on paying more than $100 for the loan and then getting the $100 from the homeowner.

The yield curve is exceptionally flat right now. The rates on new fixed-rate mortgages are heavily correlated to the medium duration Treasury securities such as the 10-year Treasury. Consequently, homeowners with adjustable-rate mortgages should be receiving calls from their banks or credit unions offering to help them refinance into a new loan. It is in the banks' best interest to do that, because after they make the new loan, they can spin around and sell it off for somewhere around $102 to $105 per $100 on the loan. The buyer of the loan has to amortize that premium over time, but for the bank, it is immediate profits.

Therefore, I expect prepayments to increase. When the prepayments increase, I expect amortization charges to increase. Even though the gross asset yield, last seen at 2.6% should continue to climb, I expect the higher amortization charges to offset a material part of that growth. Consequently, I don't believe the "yield on all interest-earning assets" will increase much beyond 1.67% on average (remember, this is the green box at the top of the chart).

Because the higher amortization expenses should keep a lid on the yield on all interest-earning assets, even a slow growth in the cost of financing should be enough to eat into the net interest spread. Over the last year, the cost of financing increased 12 basis points. I think that is a reasonable projection for the next 12 months as well. Without the hedges, this could easily be 25 to 50 basis points.

If we see asset yields running roughly flat at 1.67% due to higher amortization charges offsetting growth in the gross yields, a 12 basis point increase in the cost of financing would chop their spread from .68 to .56. That would be a 17% decline in the net interest spread income, assuming the leverage remains steady.

What happens when that spread gets compressed? Dividends get chopped:

Rating on CMO's Common Stock = Sell

I see the potential pressure on the net interest spread as a major consideration for investors going into CMO. I was able to find value despite the issues when the yield curve was steeper and the company traded around $9.30 rather than $10.98. Now we are looking at a scenario where amortization expenses are more likely to go higher and net interest spreads are more likely to be compressed. Despite these challenges, the stock rallied significantly. This is a great time for investors to be harvesting gains. I know the ex-dividend date is almost here and some investors may feel inclined to hold on. Perhaps the market will ignore these problems for months longer, but I wouldn't want to play that game. There is far too much downside risk. I view CMO as a clear sell at this point.

Alternative

My concerns about CMO extend to other mortgage REITs in the same space. The adjustable-rate mortgages can be a great investment strategy, but they suffer when the yield curve flattens out and prepayments rise due to homeowners refinancing. As an alternative, I suggest (and own) shares of CMO-E. CMO-E is an excellent yield investment. Unlike CMO, there are no dividend reductions on CMO-E. When the yield curve flattens and net interest spreads decline, it doesn't impact CMO-E. The dividend yield on CMO-E is running about 7.6%, which is right around where it normally trades. Note: CMO-E traded up since I published this for subscribers. The stripped yield is now 7.5%.

An investor going from CMO to CMO-E would usually have to give up at least a couple hundred basis points in dividend yield. With CMO only yielding 7.65% and very little chance of an increase, the spread between the two is much smaller. If we use "current yield", which ignores dividend accrual, the yields would be 7.65% on the common and 7.36% (rather than 7.5%) on the preferred shares. This is a spread of only 29 basis points. It is easily the smallest spread I've seen between the common and preferred shares for CMO at any point.

Investors deciding between the two should consider the price volatility as one measure of risk. The following Google chart demonstrates it quite clearly:

Conclusion

Is the extra volatility in price worth it for an extra 29 basis points of yield? Is it worth the risk that dividends could still get pressured by amortization expenses while the Federal Reserve drives up the cost of borrowing on short-term loans? Picking winners on a consistent basis relies on finding less volatile opportunities where prices are steady and yields are high. At this point, the yield spread is exceptionally small and the price risk built into CMO is exceptionally high.

Want SMS alerts when I find an actionable opportunity? They are a free service for subscribers to The Mortgage REIT Forum. This is your opportunity to lock in prices at $330 per year before the next price increase on July 1st, 2017. These preferred shares are offering high yields and dramatically lower volatility than investing in the common shares.

Disclosure: I am/we are long CMO-E.

I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Additional disclosure: No financial advice.

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Stop Gambling On A 7.66% Yield When The 7.51% Offers Less Risk - Seeking Alpha

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City Council to loosen Casper gambling restrictions to aid pet shelter – Casper Star-Tribune Online

Posted: at 2:33 pm

A small Casper pet shelter prevailed this week in its quest to loosen restrictions on the gambling it uses to fund its operations, sparking a debate at Tuesdays City Council meeting on whether local government should be in the business of regulating morals.

For several years, the Pet Ring Foundation has raised money from a handful of gambling machines at a storefront along East Second Street.

But when executive director Preston Pilant tried to switch machine vendors, he learned that city zoning barred gambling at his shop because it was within 300 feet of a church.

Pilant said he had consulted with the police and City Attorneys Office before starting the gambling operation but hadnt thought to check with the zoning office.

We completely shut down, Pilant told Council.

That was a problem because the shelter was largely funded by the gaming revenue.

So Pilant approached Council earlier this year to ask that the city change the zoning rule barring gambling near churches. City staff began working on a solution, and on Tuesday, City Planner Craig Collins presented Council with five options:

reduce the current 300-foot distance restriction;

measure from building to building rather than from property lines;

eliminate the distance-based restriction on gambling in the C-2 zoning district, which Pilants operation is located in;

or remove the distance restriction on gambling in every zoning district.

Council members were largely sympathetic to Pilants plight.

Its a stupid law, said Councilman Shawn Johnson.

Councilwoman Amanda Huckabay defended Pilants work and said his shelter provided an essential service to Casperites.

Preston is a little bit psycho about animals, but he has helped out so many low-income and homeless people in this community, she said. If they have no place to keep their animal, Preston will take them in.

Collins also spoke against the current regulation, which bars gambling within 300 feet of both churches and schools, as measured from property line to property line.

He said the purpose of zoning was to ensure the buildings and activities in different neighborhoods were compatible.

Its not to make sure people are doing moral things on their property, Collins said. Im always hesitant to regulate moral issues because not everybodys morals are the same.

Councilman Dallas Laird said the fact that the Pet Rings gambling operation was active for years before the zoning issue shut them down was evidence that it posed no harm to the community.

This is probably going on all over and it doesnt matter, Laird said.

Lairds main concern was that Pilant had an old school bus, painted black, parked next to the shop. Pilant said it was intended to serve as a mobile spay-and-neuter clinic but that funds never emerged. He said the bus would be removed soon and offered it to Laird for free. Laird declined.

Pilant was unable to be reached for comment regarding what kind of gambling machines he would be using and when the operation most recently shut down.

Council agreed to eliminate the distance restriction in the C-2 zoning district and allow gambling in those areas without a special permit. Members will still need to vote on that decision at a future meeting.

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Belgium tightens the reigns on gambling advertising – World Casino Directory

Posted: at 2:33 pm

Measures which would tighten restrictions on gambling advertising in Belgium are being called for by the countrys Justice Minister, Koen Geens.

The Belgium Gaming Commission (BGC) fully supports the proposed measures which would effectively ban gambling ads on TV before 8pm and completely block them during live sporting events in the country in Western Europe, according to Belgian news website nieuwsblad.be.

Going one step further, gambling advertisements that are permitted, but have been deemed to promote excessive gambling activity, will also be removed say BGC officials. However, what exactly defines excessive has yet to be decided.

Spokeswoman for the BGC, Marjolein De Paepe, reportedly told the Belgian news website, We already have the authority for it, but as long as there are no clear rules about what may or may not, we can hardly exert it.

Under the new proposals, banners that appear on screen during televised games and during half-time commercials would be banned. Also included would be the mandatory implementation of problem gambling warnings in marketing materials of operators as well as fines levied against operators found to be in breach of the new regulations.

Online gambling is now legal in over 20 countries and has been legal in Belgium since 2002. The regulation of the countrys online gambling market launched about six years ago. Under the 2009 Gambling Act, a company wishing to provide an online gambling service in Belgium must also possess a license for a land-based, brick-and-motor operation. And last year, legislation that makes online gambling services taxable under value added tax (VAT) laws was launched by Belgiums finance ministry.

According to the Gambling Insider report, figures recently published by the Belgian Association of Gaming Operators (BAGO) indicate that internationally licensed gambling sites are only utilized by 15 percent of Belgians. A number BAGO believes will increase by 35 percent if the newly proposed restrictions are imposed on Belgian licensed operators.

The new proposals were reportedly welcomed by Belgian Member of Parliament, Peter De Decker, who said, For tobacco advertising there are already strict rules and there are ethical standards around alcohol. So something had to happen around gambling. We must not be blind to the fact that more is being cast or for the misery that causes it to people who are hard at all.

Belgium tightens the reigns on gambling advertising was last modified: June 17th, 2017 by K Morrison

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Concern rises over video gambling at ‘stop-and-go’ stores – Philly.com – Philly.com

Posted: at 2:33 pm

HARRISBURG Walk in. Buy a shot of whiskey from the clerk behind the plexiglass window; maybe two. Then hit up the gambling machine in the corner.

This is what Democratic state representatives from Philadelphia fear will be the future in countless nuisance establishments across the city known as stop-and-gos if a sweeping gambling expansion bill approved by the House this month is allowed to stand.

The controversial legislation would, among other changes, allow up to 40,000 so-called video gaming terminals (VGTs) essentially slot machines statewide in bars, restaurants, and other stores with a license to sell liquor.

In Philadelphia, that means that the hundreds of neighborhood stores that for years have caused problems ranging from loitering and public drunkenness to other crimes would be able to apply for one of the licenses to install the terminals.

Stop-and-gos are deteriorating the city of Philadelphia, Rep. Stephen Kinsey (D., Phila.), said during last weeks debate on the House floor on the gambling expansion bill. This bill will give them slot machines and games. We should not, and cannot, support this shots-and-slots legislation.

The legislation is now back in the Senate, where support for VGTs is tepid at best. Still, the state is facing a more than $1 billion shortfall entering the fiscal year that begins July 1 and legislators only have a few more weeks to figure out ways to raise new dollars to make up for it. Gambling expansion, and VGTs in particular, has been touted as a money-maker, setting the stage for tense negotiations on the issue in the weeks to come.

But the problem of stop-and-go stores is particularly acute in Philadelphia, whose legislators almost all Democrats are in the minority and do not have a good seat at the negotiating table.

Stop-and-gos are small convenience stores, delis, or gas stations with liquor licenses though many dont technically meet the seating and food sales requirements to have one. They sell a variety of alcoholic beverages, including single shots of liquor.

They are scattered all over the city. In some neighborhoods, they have become a magnet for crime.

But because they hold a liquor license, they would be eligible under the gambling expansion bill to apply for a license to set up VGTs.

This week, several Philadelphia representatives proposed legislation to crack down on stop-and-go stores and prevent them from obtaining VGTs if the gambling bill passes the Senate.The legislation would impose heavy standards and oversight for stop-and-gos, enforcing often-ignored seating, food sales, and food preparation mandates required for liquor licenses.

For some, its personal.

A stop-and-go establishment is right next door to my district office that is currently operating after being cited for various violations, said Rep. Christopher Rabb (D., Phila.), a cosponsor of the bill. Its owner is neither a resident of my district or the city, and has no known ties to the local business or civic community.

Rabb and his staff find themselves performing janitorial duties just to keep the sidewalks clean by his district office on the 7200 block of Germantown Avenue.

The business regularly has intoxicated customers, loiterers and panhandlers, and serves dozens of unaccompanied minors from Henry Houston School every weekday afternoon, said Rabb, adding: VGTs in businesses such as these that prey on historically marginalized communities would make them commercial super-predators.

The anti-nuisance bill that Rabb and other Philadelphia legislators are pushing was approved unanimously in the House Liquor Control Committee last week and is on its way to the full House.

No Pennsylvanian should be held hostage by nuisance businesses, decreased quality of life, and the increased crime associated with them, said Rep. Joanna McClinton (D., Phila.), one of the representatives cosponsoring the bill.

Even proponents of the gambling expansion bill in the House who are supportive of VGTs agree with Philadelphia lawmakers that stop-and-go convenience stores shouldnt be able to have them.

Rep. Mark Mustio (R., Allegheny) said the gambling-expansion bill that passed the House takes pains to address the problem of stop-and-go stores. Among other things, the measure would require small establishments serving liquor a definition that fits most stop-and-go stores to be inspected by a liquor control officer before getting a VGT license.

We tried to address the issue in the bill, said Mustio.

Rep. Mike Sturla (D., Lancaster), who supports the expansion, said the bill includes $3 million a year specifically to increase liquor-law enforcement in Philadelphia.

Sturla also suggested the possibility of punishing suppliers if they supplied alcohol to establishments that clearly didnt comply with the liquor codes.

Despite these provisions, Philadelphia legislators still oppose allowing stop-and-go establishments to introduce another potential problem.

We need to have the stop-and-go issue addressed, not give these nuisance businesses an added source of income and potentially increase the amount of crime associated with them, said McClinton.

Contact Logan Hullinger atl.r.hullinger@gmail.comor(814) 319-5159.

Published: June 16, 2017 9:37 PM EDT

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Should we worry about a euthanasia market-takeover? – BioEdge

Posted: at 2:33 pm

There is endless debate about the ethics of euthanasia. Yet even if one sets aside principled objections to the procedure, there are still contextual risks to introducing new medical interventions into a medical market-economy. We can never set aside the risk of a market takeover.

Writing in ABC Religion and Ethics this week, Daniel Fleming from St. Vincents Health Australia explores the risks of market forces undermining attempts to regulate euthanasia once it is introduced in a jurisdiction. Citing sources from Harvard philosopher Michael Sandel to Slovenian intellectual Slavoj Zizek, Fleming argues that once medical procedures are introduced into a particular social context, they face the threat of being governed by the ideology of that social context. And for free market economies, the ideology is capitalism:

Fleming continues:

These are uncomfortable considerations, but as the author observes, its a discussion that legislations considering euthanasia need to have.

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Stolen vehicles in Pueblo contribute to higher insurance rates – Pueblo Chieftain

Posted: at 2:32 pm

Auto theft is often thought of as a victimless crime, but in reality everyone is a victim when vehicles are stolen, because people ultimately pay for it through higher insurance rates.

Earlier this month, Bloomberg News published a story identifying the top 10 cities in the United States with the highest per-capita rate of vehicle thefts in 2016. Pueblo was second on the list, which used the National Insurance Crime Bureau report as its source.

"The bottom line is that auto theft going up in Pueblo does contribute ultimately to what we pay in car insurance and higher rates," said Carol Walker, a spokeswoman for the Rocky Mountain Insurance Information Association.

Walker said stolen vehicles are one of the factors that can contribute to higher insurance rates.

"When you think of your car insurance, there are different coverages. Comprehensive coverage is what covers you if your car is stolen," Walker said.

"However, at the same time it also covers you for hail and flooding. So, unfortunately, the state also is ranked second in the nation for hail insurance claims, and Southern Colorado has been hit very hard."

Walker said the spike in auto theft across the state adds up to about $100 million in value of property.

"So there is a dollar value unfortunately to stolen vehicles. Of course there also is a public safety concern to see Pueblo ranked second on a list like that. At the same time, we all pay for it," Walker said.

Walker said the state is on a collision course with what people are paying for car insurance and seeing it spike so dramatically.

"It's Mother Nature unleashing hail year after year and auto theft going up 50 percent, and it's also that cars are more expensive to repair than they were before because of all the technology," she said.

"We are also at a very litigious lawsuit environment where it is very easy to sue insurance companies, and so insurance companies at this point are really trying to keep up with those high costs to pay claims and those increased claims."

Pueblo had a rate of approximately 900 auto thefts per 100,000 residents, according to Bloomberg.

Walker said while the state is seeing auto theft increasing, there are resources being put toward preventing it.

She is a part of the Colorado Auto Theft Prevention Authority; Pueblo is part of the southern task force.

"Every insurance company is required to collect a dollar on every insured vehicle every year, and it goes into the Colorado Auto Theft Prevention Authority. It's a granting authority that is set up to combat auto theft through the state Legislature," Walker said.

"That money goes toward multijurisdictional task forces. So law enforcement efforts increase to combat auto theft. There is also prevention and education training."

One of those preventions is to not leave keys in your automobile. Walker said comprehensive insurance still covers vehicle owners in those situations, but it is highly encouraged not to do it.

Pueblo reached a record for auto theft reports in 2016, recording 1,216 -- which equates to roughly three a day and about 102 a month. That number marked a 35 percent increase from 2015, when there were 899 auto thefts reported. Through May 31, there had been 463 auto thefts in Pueblo.

"Auto theft is part of the drug crime increase and the homicide increase, because usually there is a stolen vehicle involved with those other crimes," Walker said.

Pueblo police have said that the majority of auto thefts in Pueblo consist of individuals stealing cars across town and using them for a variety of reasons, including to transport crime suspects or drugs.

Walker said the state is always looking at trends in an effort to determine why auto theft is on the rise.

"One of the biggest things we are seeing is the relationships to other crimes," she said.

"From an insurance perspective, what they are looking at is claim trends. They are looking at not just one year, but over a period of time."

Walker said insurance companies analyze what they are paying out in claims, "Whether those are stolen vehicles, whether those are hail claims or whether those are increased car crashes. Unfortunately, CDOT is also reporting that fatalities are up 24 percent over a two-year period.

"It really is the perfect storm and, unfortunately, auto theft is a part of that."

anthonym@chieftain.com

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Kiwanis Club honors students for following the Golden Rule | Local … – Chippewa Herald

Posted: at 2:30 pm

McDonell Central Catholic High School student Samuel Zwickel and Chippewa Falls High School student Tim Wollman were recently honored as May Golden Rule Students by the Chippewa Falls Kiwanis Club.

In honor of their recognition, Kiwanis Club of Chippewa Falls donated $25 to the charity of the students choice.

Zwickel, son of Thomas and Susan, selected the Boy Scouts of America Chippewa Valley Council. Wollman, son of Michael Wollman and Aimee Wollman Nesseth, chose the World Wildlife Foundation.

Throughout the year, the Chippewa Falls Kiwanis Club chooses seniors from Chippewa Falls Senior High School and McDonell Area Catholic Schools, nominated by the respective schools teaches and staff, using specific criteria including, among others:

respect for all nationalities, race, ages and gender

would be willing to stand up for the rights of others

active in doing community service

taking responsibility for ones own actions

The Chippewa Falls chapter meets on Wednesdays at noon at Avalon Hotel and Conference Center. For more information about the Kiwanis Club of Chippewa Falls, visit http://www.chippewafallskiwanis.org.

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