Monthly Archives: June 2017

Americas European allies are campaigning to stop President Donald Trump from using national security grounds to slap restrictions on foreign steel imports.

Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross said Monday the administration is ready to take bold action to limit imports of steel, even though the Commerce Departments investigation into the supposed national-security risks from relying on imported steel is still ongoing.

Though the administration has touted the action, which could include tariffs or quotas or both, as a move to check Chinas abusive trade practices, NATO allies are concerned that theyll feel the pinch a lot more than Beijing.

According to a report in the Financial Times, German and Dutch military officials have been pressing Defense Secretary James Mattis to make the case that steel imports from NATO members like Germany and Belgium dont pose a threat to American national security. Reports indicate that Mattis has warned the White House against any rash action on steel.

Berlin is reportedly particularly concerned about a steel dispute could further widen the rift between Europe and the United States, already yawning after Washingtons withdrawal from the Paris accord and the U.S. Senates efforts to tighten sanctions against European firms that do certain kinds of business with Russia.

Chad Bown, a trade expert at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, says the Europeans have a point. In a recent study, he found that countries like Canada, Mexico, Japan, South Korea, and Germany not China are likely to suffer under Trumps new restrictions. Thats because imports of Chinese steel are already covered by existing trade remedies dating back to the turn of the century; almost 10 percent of Chinese goods imported into the United States are subject to some sort of trade restriction, Bown notes, up from 2 percent in 2001.

Photo credit: EMMANUEL DUNAND/Getty Images

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NATO Allies Press Trump To Stop Steel Crackdown - Foreign Policy (blog)

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NATO's Stronger Baltic Force Riles Russia Wall Street Journal (subscription) ADAZI, LatviaThe North Atlantic Treaty Organization said its deterrent force is fully in place in the Baltic area with the addition of a Canadian-led battle group in Latvia, enhancing deployments criticized by Russia. A ceremony on Monday, featuring ... Latvia welcomes NATO troopsXinhua NATO Has No Plans to Increase Baltics, Poland Troop Numbers - NATO ChiefSputnik International President Vejonis calls NATO Enhanced Forward Presence a historic affirmation of solidarityBaltic Times all 7 news articles »

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NATO's Stronger Baltic Force Riles Russia - Wall Street Journal (subscription)

Russia is planning a military exercise involving 100,000 soldiers after NATO simulated a mock defense from an invasion through the Baltic's

(VERO BEACH, FL) The upcoming drill, which has been held jointly with Belarus every four years starting in 1973, will begin in September and is nicknamed Exercise Zapad 2017.

During the 9th edition of this joint military exercise, a defense will be simulated by the Russian high command to repel a mock invasion of Belarus by NATO.

Historically the drill has involved a scenario where a full-scale conflict between the West and Russia has broken out, and previous iterations have even included simulated nuclear responses on European cities.

Ahead of this drill, Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges, Commander of all U.S. Army units in Europe (USAEUR), announced Friday that an additional 600 troops will be deployed across the Baltic States for the duration of Zagad 2017, bringing the number of NATO forces currently in Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland to approximately 5,100.

Hodges told Reuters that the Pentagon is worried about possible Russian aggression during the Zapad exercise.

"When (Russia) went into Crimea, that was against the backdrop of an exercise. When they went into Georgia, that was an exercise", Lt. Gen. Hodges said during a NATO exercise in Poland. "Their history is full of examples where they don't live up to any treaties ... They routinely violate those things.

"We are all working hard to be at the highest levels of readiness during exercises like this, Lt. Gen. Hodges said.

The exercise Lt. Gen. Hodges was in attendance for in Poland was part of a series of NATO operations including Saber Strike and Baltic Operations (BALTOPS), which run throughout June, and are aimed at deterring the alleged Russian Threat.

BALTOPS involves 55 aircraft, 50 ships and submarines, and 4000 troops from 14 different nations.

In Poland, the USAEUR commander was personally overseeing the Suwalki Gap exercise, which involved 1,500 U.S. and British troops simulating the defense of the strategically significant Suwalki Gap from a Russian invasion.

The Suwalki Gap is a 64 mile block of farm, wooded, and low-hill land on the border between Poland and Lithuania and touches the territorial lines of Russias Kaliningrad enclave.

A Russian seizure of the Suwalki Gap would effectively cut off Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania from the rest of Western Europe, meaning the regions defense is crucial to NATOs mission to protect the Baltics.

The gap is vulnerable because of the geography, Lt. Gen. Hodges told Reuters. It's not inevitable that there's going to be an attack, of course, but ... if that was closed, then you have three allies that are north that are potentially isolated from the rest of the alliance.

B-1B and B-52 bombers are included in the U.S. aircraft deployment roster for BALTOPS 2017, and according to Daily Signal correspondent Nolan Peterson, who has been embedded with the U.S. Air Force for the duration of the exercise, the Russians are keeping a close eye on these iconic bombers capable of carrying nuclear weaponry.

While onboard a U.S. Air Force KC-135 aerial refueling tanker on June 9th, Peterson witnessed two Russian Su-27 flanker fighter jets intercept a10-plane NATO formation compromised of two U.S. Air Force B-1B bombers, one USAF B-52H bomber, two German Eurofighter Typhoon fighters, two Polish F-16 fighters, two U.S. Air Force F-16s, and a U.S. Navy P-8 surveillance aircraft.

Its a game, Air Force Lt. Col. Kristofer Padilla, commander of 52nd Operations Group Detachment 1, told The Daily Signal afterward the incident, which occured in inside international airspace. They [the Russians] broke no rules.

Aside from BALTOPS, which began annually in 1972, and the Saber Strike exercises, NATO is also conducting Iron Wolf 2017, which is a 10-day joint military exercise currently being held in Lithuania involving 5,000 troops from nine different nations.

Russia has repeatedly denied the existence of any plans to attack the Baltic States, and denounced NATOs military buildup along its borders as a threat to national security.

In February, Russian President Vladimir Putin blamed NATO for provoking a conflict with Moscow and using its newly-declared official mission to deter Russia as a pretext.

Also in February, while speaking at the Munich Security Conference, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said that NATO's expansion has led to an unprecedented level of tension over the last 30 years in Europe.

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When the stealthy hi-tech F-35 fighter jet tears through Paris skies on its first ever acrobatic displays this week, the jet will also be sending a message: NATO allies, the United States is still on your side.

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USA TODAY Published 1:32 p.m. ET June 19, 2017 | Updated 4 hours ago

A Lockheed Martin F-35 jetfighter performs during a demonstration in Le Bourget on June 16, 2017, prior to the formal June 19 opening of the Paris Air Show.(Photo: ERIC PIERMONT, AFP/Getty Images)

LE BOURGET, France (AP) When the stealthy hi-tech F-35 fighter jet tears through Paris skies on its first ever acrobatic displays this week, the jet will also be sending a message: NATO allies, the United States is still on your side.

In an Associated Press interview at the opening Monday of the Paris Air Show, a senior F-35 Air Force administrator, Brigadier General Select Todd Canterbury, said the daily displays of the new jet are to showcase its abilities and "reassure (allies) that we are committed to NATO 100 percent and that we have got the capability to respond to any action necessary."

PARIS AIR SHOW ROUND-UP:See all the stories from the show

U.S. President Donald Trump has called NATO obsolete and excoriated European allies last month for not spending enough on their own defenses.

Canterbury, director of the Air Force F-35 Integration Office at the Pentagon, also spoke about recent problems that grounded F-35s at Luke Air Force Base in Arizona. Since May 2, F-35 pilots on five occasions reported symptoms of oxygen deprivation, he said.

Engineers, test pilots, medics and others experts are "digging into this problem 24 hours a day," to try to identify the cause, Canterbury said.

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Paris Air Show: F-35 fighter show is gesture to NATO allies, US says - USA TODAY

With NATO Summit Meetings taking place at roughly 18 months intervals, it would be too much to expect that every one of them will be brimming with significance. But the recent meeting of NATO Heads of State and Government on May 25th may come to be seen as significant for all the wrong reasons.

It appears to have been intended to be a moment when the strength of the trans-Atlantic alliance would be reconfirmed following the election of President Trump. But if solidarity was the name of the game, someone appears to have forgotten to inform the US President. Far from reinforcing cohesion, the Presidents public remarks in Brussels preceding the meeting were notable chiefly for the absence of any confirmation of the USs Article 5 commitment to the defence of its European allies, as well as the stress he placed on the failure of 23 out of 28 allies to meet the 2% of GDP target for defence spending. Chancellor Merkels comments in Berlin three days later that the times when we could totally rely on others are to some extent over, as I have experienced in the past few days, were telling.

Yet, curiously, the Presidents speech came less than a month after SACEUR, in testimony to a Senate committee, said that EUCOM had shifted from a posture of security cooperation and engagement to one of deterrence and defence, and only days before a request to increase the 2018 budget for the USs European Reassurance Initiative from $3.4Bn to $4.7Bn. Thus, at the same time as the President was casting doubt on the US commitment to the defence of Europe, on the ground the scale of the US commitment is increasing. The President could have used this fact to add to the moral pressure on the European allies to contribute more to defence, as well as adding to the deterrent effect of his remarks.

The two items on the agenda for the meeting were the fight against terrorism and burden sharing. These reflected President Trumps priorities, but the lack of emphasis on collective defence and deterrence was a missed opportunity to sustain the theme established at Wales and continued at Warsaw. The absence of a communiqu contributed to the impression that the brief meeting lacked substance and made it more difficult to gauge what progress had been made in implementing the commitments made at the previous two summits. Perhaps it was sensible not to ramp up the rhetoric on defence against threats from the East. Strong defence coupled with openness to dialogue is the right policy. But more should have been made of the progress in reinforcing the Alliances borders in order to enhance deterrence. And it was curious in the extreme that the Alliances leaders had nothing to say about the continuing stalemate in Ukraine.

At the concluding press conference, Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg stated that the meeting had been a powerful reminder of NATO solidarity and the importance of the common fight against terrorism. He described the agreement that NATO would become a full member of the Global Coalition to Defeat ISIS as a strong signal of NATOs commitment to fight global terrorism. Given that all 28 allies are already members of that coalition, it is difficult to see what practical effect this will have. The Secretary General highlighted the ability to take part in political deliberations, including on the coordination of training and capacity building. But, since the coalition includes many states which are not NATO members and is not being led by the Alliance, the practical impact of this initiative is likely to be extremely modest and could even be counterproductive if it has the effect of putting off other potential partners. Without knowing the detail of the increased contribution by the NATO AWACS force, it is difficult to assess its value, other than to acknowledge that any additional contribution is better than none.

The decision to develop annual national plans setting out how the member states intend to meet the 2014 investment pledge, deliver the military capabilities the Alliance requires and contribute to NATO missions sounds promising. We are told that the first set of reports are to be made by the end of this year, in time for NATO Defence Ministers to consider them in February 2018. It will be instructive to see how the new initiative fares. If it has the effect of driving the allies to meet the 2% target, it will have served a useful purpose. However, as the Secretary General acknowledged, it is not just a question of how much is spent but also how it is spent. If the new initiative adds bite to the existing annual capability planning cycle, it would be an added boon. NATOs defence planning processes are more shrouded in secrecy than is either necessary or useful. This restricts rational debate about how best to maximise military output on an Alliance-wide basis. The more transparency surrounding the new initiative, the more effective it is likely to be.

The overall effect of the meeting was to sharpen differences between the US and its European allies, rather than reinforce Alliance solidarity. Any modest benefit from the focus on counterterrorism was more than offset by the fresh impetus provided to speculation about the US commitment to Article 5. On the other hand, if the combination of President Trumps undiplomatic language and the development of annual plans on the 2% target galvanises the European allies to spend more and spend more effectively, some good will have come of the gathering.

The opinions articulated above represent the views of the author(s), and do not necessarily reflect the position of the European Leadership Network or any of its members. The ELN's aim is to encourage debates that will help develop Europe's capacity to address the pressing foreign, defence, and security challenges of our time.

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Assessing the NATO Heads of State and Government Meeting, 25 May 2017 - European Leadership Network

The former U.S. ambassador to NATO said the unpredictability of the Trump administration may open opportunities for opponents.

"This sort of unpredictability over the first five months of this administration possibly opens potential opportunities for opponents," Douglas Lute, former U.S. representative to NATO under President Obama, said in an interview on "This Week" Sunday. "Here, I think, Russia, in particular."

Asked by "This Week" co-anchor Martha Raddatz what Russian President Vladimir Putin thinks when he hears President Trump talk about Russia, Lute said Putin sees the chance to "crack the NATO alliance."

"I suspect he sees an opportunity to do what military force alone could never do, and that is crack the NATO alliance. If he can crack it politically or if he can provoke internal fissures inside the alliance, then Putin sees enormous opportunity to achieve a longstanding Russian goal," Lute said.

Lute added that Trumps failure during a speech in Brussels last month to reaffirm NATOs Article 5, which commits that an attack on one member of the alliance is an attack on all, will lead other members of NATO to hedge their bets.

They believe they cant rely on U.S. leadership as they have for the past 70 years, Lute said. We should think about what that 70 years has featured U.S. leadership, which has been the backbone of recovery from World War II all the way, seeing us all the way through the Cold War period. And then beyond the Cold War, seeing NATO as a stabilizing force outside NATO boundaries, so in the Balkans. And today, even today, in Afghanistan.

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Putin sees chance under Trump to 'crack the NATO alliance': Former ... - ABC News