Daily Archives: June 28, 2017

June 27, 2017 by Chris Gebhardt

As the mid-way point of 2017 arrives, both of NASAs Commercial Crew Program service providers are making significant progress toward the first uncrewed test flights of their Dragon and Starliner capsules. At their second quarter 2017 meeting, the Aerospace Safety Advisory Panel noted this progress while also discussing outstanding concerns regarding the program and vehicles as well as the positive steps being taken to address these matters.

Commercial Crew progress:

During last months NASA Aerospace Safety Advisory Panel (ASAP) second quarter meeting in Huntsville, Alabama, the panel noted the significant progress both Commercial Crew Transportation Capability (CCtCap) providers are making toward their first uncrewed demo flights.

Currently, SpaceX is on track to be the first to perform their uncrewed flight, known as SpX Demo-1, with Dr. Donald McErlean reporting to the ASAP that the flight continues to target a launch later this year.

Currently, both NASA and SpaceX hold that SpX Demo-1 will fly by the end of the year though L2 level KSC scheduling claims the mission has potentially slipped to March 2018.

Regardless, SpX Demo-1 will be followed under the current plan by Boeings uncrewed OFT (Orbital Flight Test) in mid-2018.

Notwithstanding the ultimate commencement of the Commercial Crew Program (CCP) flight operations, the ASAP noted its concern and recommendations regarding CCP provider System Engineering & Integration (SE&I) process and controls.

In her opening statement to the meeting, Dr. Patricia Sanders, ASAP Chair, noted the two recent mishaps of commercial launch vehicles.

While one of those two recent mishaps is obviously the AMOS-6 conflagration of the Falcon 9 during Static Fire last year, what the second one is in reference to is somewhat nebulous as mishap is not a word usually applied to situations that do not result in the loss of a vehicle.

Nonetheless, Dr. Sanders statement referenced both CCP providers, potentially pointing toward last years close call with the Atlas V during the OA-6 Cygnus launch or perhaps this years hydraulic issues as the second of the two recent mishaps.

Specifically, Dr. Sanders noted that In the case of two recent mishaps on commercial launch vehicles, the Panel believes that the underlying root causes could be traced to escapes on systems engineering and integration (SE&I) processes and controls, states the minutes from the second quarter ASAP meeting.

To this end, the ASAPs previously put forward a recommendation at a meeting in first quarter 2017 that NASA require the commercial crew providers to produce verifiable evidence of the practice of rigorous, disciplined, and sustained SE&I principles in support of NASA certification and operation of commercial crew transportation services to the International Space Station (ISS).

Based on the wording of the CCtCap contracts, both providers are allowed to utilize their corporate policies rather than NASA-traditional SE&I processes; however, the contracts also stipulate that NASA will confirm through documentation, requirements verification, and deliverables that both companys have adhered to SE&I principles.

Nonetheless, the ASAP remains concerned.

According to the minutes of Dr. Sanders remarks, the ASAP remains concerned that no amount of insight or oversight by the CCP can ensure that the appropriate level of engineering discipline and control is employed unless the providers have internalized the need for it and made it an inherent part of their corporate culture.

While each provider was not mentioned by name, the minutes reflect that one provider has a history of employing rigorous SE&I practices. However, they need to continue to ensure that these controls are not employed blindly but with an awareness of the rationale for doing so.

The other provider has placed a value on agility and rapid problem solving with beneficial results. They are also showing signs of evolving to reconcile their approach with the benefits and need for discipline and control.

However, they need to ensure that the evolution reflects an inherent desire to adopt the tenets of systems engineering.

Dr. Sanders opening statement closed with a reminder of an already-established ASAP recommendation that Regardless of the methodology employed, both providers need to demonstrate that the proper controls are in place to ensure hardware is properly qualified, hazards are identified and appropriately mitigated, and the system is employed within the constraints of that qualification.

As the meeting progressed (which covered a wide-range of NASA-related programs), Dr. McErlean presented a dedicated Commercial Crew Program briefing.

A large portion of this section, unsurprisingly, focused on the LOC (Loss Of Crew) gap between what Dragon and Starliner are independently capable of providing v. what the CCtCap contracts require of them.

As previously reported by NASASpaceflight.com, the CCtCap contracts establish a minimum baseline requirement that Dragon and Starliner each meet a LOC criteria of 1 in 270 meaning for every 270 flights, only one would result in an LOC event.

Currently, there is a gap in what the data analysis shows both Starliner and Dragon are capable of providing and that 1 in 270 requirement.

While NASA has rightly not made the current LOC number for each vehicle public (as both providers are still working on this requirement), Kathy Lueders, NASAs CCP manager, stated earlier this year to the NASA Advisory Council that I will tell you that we are having a hard time getting to 1 in 270. But were not done yet.

While it might seem arbitrary, the 1 in 270 number is actually linked directly to the Space Shuttle.

At the end of the Shuttle Program in 2011, NASA determined the Shuttle to have an actual LOC number based on all 135 flights of 1 in 65.

This number was used as an initial benchmark by NASA, which decided that all U.S. crew vehicles commercial or government from 2011 onward should meet a safety factor 10 times that of Shuttle, or an LOC requirement of 1 in 650.

That was quickly determined to be completely unfeasible by all parties involved, and a new obtainable benchmark of 1 in 270 was set.

However, after NASA set this requirement and signed the CCtCap contracts with SpaceX and Boeing, more stringent MMOD (Micro Meteoroid Orbiting Debris) protection requirements were imposed on everyone (NASA included).

This new MMOD requirement has made it challenging to reach the 1 in 270 LOC benchmark.

At the NAC meeting in March, Ms. Lueders stated that SpaceX and Boeing were still updating MMOD protection and a few other critical areas including looking at operational controls, and when we get through all that well be in a better place to talk about our final LOC projection.

At the ASAP meeting, Dr. McErlean reminded the panel that the LOC contract requirements were a recommendation of the ASAP and that the panel remains happy it was included because the requirement appeared to drive systemic behavior by both providers in making their systems substantially safer than they might have been without such an incentive and [that both providers] have achieved considerable progress from their initial LOC estimates.

However, Dr. McErlean noted that the threshold values [are] acknowledged to be challenging, and both providers are still striving to meet that precise number.

From here, a discussion that NASA might have to accept the risk and/or that waivers might have to be processed if the LOC requirement cant be met took center stage.

According to the ASAP meeting minutes, Dr. McErlean said that While these LOC numbers were known to be challenging, and both providers have been working toward meeting the challenge, it is conceivable that in both cases the number may not be met.

However, Dr. McErlean cautioned the ASAP and NASA about rushing to judgement on the current and whatever the final LOC number for each vehicle is.

The ASAP is on record agreeing with the Program that one must be judicious in how one applies these statistical estimates. In the case of LOC, the numbers themselves depend very heavily on the orbital debris model used to develop the risk to the system [as] orbital debris is a driving factor in determining the potential for LOC.

The orbital debris models have been used and validated to some degree, but they are not perfect.

One must be wary of being too pernicious in the application of a specific number and must look at whether the providers have expended the necessary efforts and engineering activity to make the systems as safe as they can and still perform the mission.

To that last point, Dr. McErlean reported that both providers indeed expended the necessary efforts and engineering activity to make the systems as safe as they can.

Importantly, too, Dr. McErlean noted that there was no evidence that spending more money on closing the LOC gap for both providers could [make] their systems considerably safer.

The ASAP at large concurred with this finding and noted their pleasure at the progress made in closing the LOC gap for both Dragon and Starliner.

However, the panel did discuss the possible necessity for NASA to do a formal risk acceptance of the variance from the requirement.

To this point, the ASAP discussed a recommendation of how NASA would do this including the need for a formal and complete presentation of the alternatives and the consequences as well as the rationale for the path that [is] ultimately chosen for risk acceptance before any such rationale is signed off on by the appropriate authority.

In this case, Mr. John Frost noted that that authority is likely at the highest levels of NASA.

Importantly, though, the ASAP meeting wasnt just focused on the panels concerns. Considerable time was dedicated to a discussion and review of the progress both providers continue to make and where each provider is in terms of schedule milestones for their first uncrewed demo flights.

Presently, Boeing is moving through software release for Starliner, and the Starliner STA (Structural Test Article) is progressing through its test regime.

Meanwhile, the first Starliner spacecraft the one that will fly the OFT mission next year has undergone initial power activation, and the builds for Starliner spacecrafts two and three are progressing inside Boeings Commercial Crew and Cargo Processing Facility at the Kennedy Space Center.

For SpaceX, Dragon has completed its first pressurized space suit test and final assembly of the craft for SpX Demo-1 has begun all while SLC-39A at Kennedy is undergoing final acceptance testing ahead of the upcoming installation of the Crew Access Arm onto the pads Fix Service Structure tower.

Moreover, the new, full-thrust (Block 5) Merlin 1D engines are in developmental hot fire testing at McGregor, and NASA has received the detailed CDR (Critical Design Review) of the engine for crew mission certification.

Finally, the ASAP noted that Both providers have completed parachute testing for landings and are moving into production and qualification.

Moreover, SpaceX and Boeing have implemented solutions to several issues flagged by NASA toward the end of last year, and very few new issues have been identified to date.

(Images: NASA, L2 Shuttle and L2 artist Nathan Koga The full gallery of Nathans (SpaceX Dragon to MCT, SLS, Commercial Crew and more) L2 images can be *found here*)

Excerpt from:

Commercial Crew providers making significant progress toward first flights - NASASpaceflight.com

A Ford Fusion navigates an autonomous testing site in Ann Arbor, Mich. Photo credit: FORD

ANN ARBOR -- Codrin Cionca's left hand grasps the roof-mounted grab handle while his right hand rests on his leg. Cionca, a Ford engineer working on the company's autonomous vehicles, puts the Fusion's transmission into L, which powers up the car's self-driving electronics. Then he moves his feet off the pedals.

We're ready to roll.

Mcity, located on the campus of the University of Michigan, is a test course for autonomous light vehicles with many of the traffic features of urban driving. There are roundabouts, traffic lights and stop signs, pedestrian crosswalks and other types of infrastructure that self-driving cars will someday have to interact with.

Of course, Ford wouldn't have invited reporters to ride along as observers if its fleet of autonomous Fusions couldn't flawlessly pilot themselves around Mcity. So, while I was not surprised the cars didn't swerve off the road, hit a pedestrian crossing the street or veer into the bicyclist ahead of us, I was impressed with how smoothly the car worked and how quickly it sensed and adjusted to its surroundings.

Engineers have long known they could build self-driving cars -- even before cars had cameras and computers and other high-tech gear.

They've been installing the building blocks for modern autonomous vehicles since the 1980s, starting with antilock brakes, traction control, electric power steering, drive-by-wire, adaptive cruise control, cameras, etc.

Now, as engineers tie these components together, along with lidar, radar and high-definition mapping, the car is basically becoming a thinking machine that is aware of its place in the world.

The Fusion test drive, for me at least, conveyed that the mechanical bits won't be the hard part. It'll be the computers and software that gets all the components to play nicely together that will be the toughest hurdle to overcome. Think of it this way: Imagine you are at a dinner table where everyone speaks a different language. That's what engineers are facing as they try to make dozens of different technologies work as a system.

When you consider the billions of dollars automakers and suppliers are investing in automated driving technology, you expect to see the fast progress that is being made.

I tested a Land Rover recently that basically drove itself short distances off the road using a technology called "platooning," where the vehicle communicates with the one ahead of it. So, even if the lines in the road are not clearly visible and vehicles don't communicate with buildings and traffic lights, self-driving cars, using high-definition mapping and other technologies, can still function safely in certain situations.

I believe it's going to be many years, decades perhaps, until self-driving cars integrate safely onto the nation's roads and transport passengers 100 percent safely 100 percent of the time. It's not because the technology won't be ready. It's already here, and it works today in places like Mcity

As we approach a roundabout, the Fusion slows itself smoothly, then enters and executes the turn, remaining in its lane, and then exits. No easy feat. But a roundabout is a perfect example of the difficulty engineers face as they develop self-driving technology.

"Roundabouts are considered to be very challenging for automated vehicle technology," says Helen Kourous, a Ford engineer. "They are very unstructured. No two are alike. You can find many different configurations. Human drivers can sometimes get confused in them," she says.

In geofenced areas, such as the parking lot at Walt Disney World, a gated community, or a college campus, Level 5 self-driving vehicles make perfect sense, and they will work. I can see Level 3 vehicles in a few years where vehicles can drive themselves on highways but must hand off to the human driver if they can't figure out a situation. And that's about really all we can expect in the next 25 years.

I don't expect in my lifetime to ever ride on a public road in a Level 5 car, you know, sitting in the back seat reading Automotive News as the vehicle whisks me to work.

See more here:

Progress on the road to autonomy - Automotive News (subscription) (blog)

HARRISBURG Gov. Wolf said Tuesday that state budget talks are going well. The evidence, however, has yet to be seen.

Pennsylvanias new fiscal year starts Saturday, and legislators have yet to say how they will fill a gaping shortfall for the fiscal year that ends Friday and raise the money to balance next years budget. Nor have they indicated what theyll approve in the way of spending on schools, social services, prisons, and the other business of state government.

Even the budget discussions have been particularly out of view.

ButWolf told reporters Tuesday afternoon that work is on track.

Im pleased with the progress were making, he said, adding, Things are really moving, but I think theyre moving in the right way, the way the democratic process is supposed to proceed.

The governor said negotiators still are talking about exactly how much the state will spend next year, and he sounded less than enthusiastic about two proposals for the state to increase revenues. Of the House-approved plan to expand gambling, including through the introduction of video-gaming terminals in bars, he said, I think it needs some work. On taxing drinks in bars at their retail rather than wholesale prices, he said:I havent seen exactly what the proposal is, but the general idea doesnt give me a warm and fuzzy feeling.

Earlier in the day, House Majority Leader Dave Reed (R., Indiana) said negotiators were still working to reach agreement on the main spending bill as well as on gambling expansion. And he indicated that House Republicans would look unfavorably upon a gambling bill that did not include video-gaming terminals, which face Senate opposition.

We sent a lot of revenue proposals over to the Senate over the last couple months, Reed said.Gaming with VGTs was one of them. Sent a lot of liquor proposals over to the Senate as well. Were certainly not going to rubber-stamp a revenue package that isnt at least respectful of the proposals we sent over.

Last July, the Assembly approved bills to pay for the annual spending plan nearly two weeks into the fiscal year. The governor let it lapse into lawby neither signing nor vetoing them.

Wolf said he did not know what he will do if legislators send him a budget bill Friday deadline day without the accompanying revenue package to pay for it or code bills to enact it. He said he would have to see what the circumstances were, and noted:I think the Senate is going to adjourn for at least a day for a wedding of one of its members.

Jennifer Kocher, spokeswoman for Senate Majority Leader Jake Corman (R., Centre), said that while Sen. Wayne Langerholc (R., Cambria) will be getting married Saturday, that is not why the Senate wont be in the building. Kocher said the Senate plans to finish the budget by Friday, and if that doesnt happen,well be at a breaking point where we can come back the following week.

Our schedule at this point has nothing to do with the availability of Sen. Langerholc, she said.

She criticized Wolfs mention of the upcoming nuptials.

It was not appropriate for the governor to bring up a members personal life in the middle of a press gaggle, she said.

Published: June 27, 2017 9:56 PM EDT

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Wolf sees budget 'progress;' evidence wanting - Philly.com

WHITEFISH After a year of working to bring diverse interests to the table to find better ways to manage forest and rangelands across the West, Gov. Steve Bullock said progress had been made but more needs to be done.

Bullock presented a report Tuesday on his National Forest and Rangeland Management Initiative at the Western Governors' Association meeting in Whitefish.

Im confident this initiative will inspire further commitment among western governors and our partners to continue working together, in a bipartisan way and on a collaborative basis, to promote the health and resilience of our forests and rangelands, Bullock said.

During a discussion Tuesday, the governors in attendance and other stakeholders said they were pleased with the progress to date. Governors have hosted workshops across the West in the last 12 months to begin the work of developing the initiative.

Forest Service Chief Tom Tidwell said the idea of sharing stewardship and working across ownership boundaries with states and counties is vital.

The clear and unanimous agreement of what it will take to get things done on the ground is the most striking part'' of the report of the first year of the initiative, Tidwell said.

He said the Forest Service, for example, needs to adapt its National Environmental Policy Act process to accomplish the work thats needed today.

Were looking for ways to take on these larger landscapes and to be able to do the analysis so that were looking at not a few 1,000 acres, but more like tens of thousands to hundreds of thousands of acres, Tidwell said. Thats what its going to take to really make the change on the landscape.

Mark Brinkmeyer, the chair of the Idaho Forest Group, said timber companies cant work without some certainty.

Increasing the scale of forest management is important, Brinkmeyer said. Partnerships and collaboratives are important. Through the collaboratives, our company has made significant investments, but they dont work unless we have certainty because they are subject to litigation.

The rules around collaboratives are that people around the table make decisions, come up with a plan and its implemented, he said. However, if someone is not at the table they can bring litigation and the issue stops. We lost several million acres and several million feet of timber this year due to litigation. That issue needs to be addressed and addressed now.

Lynn Scarlett of The Nature Conservancy said that group embraces the Western Governors Association initiative of partnership, integrated science and landscape stewardship.

The Nature Conservancy owns over 100,000 acres of land in Montana and more throughout the country. Scarlett said those lands are actively managed and have helped keep some family-owned mills in Montana operating by delivering tens of millions of board feet to the market.

Scarlett said the efforts outlined by the initiative are promising, but not durable without reliable funding.

Current federal funding levels are out-of-sync with the needs arising from catastrophic wildfire, she said. Six western states have had their most destructive wildfires in the last six years. Filling funding gaps by borrowing from other programs, including fuels treatment programs and actions that advance collaborative conservation, makes it difficult to make a long term difference on the landscape.

In 1990, 16 percent of the Forest Services budget went to fire suppression. Today, that number nears 60 percent.

Scarlett said the conservancy supports the Wildfire Disaster Funding Act, but beyond that, it supports a comprehensive solution that covers fire operations and reduces risks of catastrophic fire. It also supports a suite of programs for collaborative conservation and the science that ensures its effectiveness.

Tidwell said hes been talking for the past eight years about the need to restore anywhere between 65 million to 83 million acres of national forest. Each year, the Forest Service treats only about four million acres.

Were way behind the eight ball on this, Tidwell said.

Tidwell likens the tens of millions of acres that need restoration to deferred maintenance.

The longer it takes for us to get out there and really, truly accelerate the pace and scale, were just passing that on to the next generation, he said. I think we have the social advocacy today for us to be able to get more work done.

"Its going to take all of us. Its going to take the federal entities working together. Its going to take the states, counties and NGOs to actually be able to move forward.

Bullock believes the initiative is a good way to make that happen.

Read the original here:

Bullock says western states are making progress in better managing ... - Helena Independent Record