Daily Archives: February 26, 2015

AMARI AIR BASE, Estonia NATO's newest members are nervous.

Troops are being trained up and reinforced. A new "spearhead force" is in the works. Fighter jets are scrambling. Military maneuvering is ramping up amid mounting concerns that Russian President Vladimir Putin will broaden his gaze beyond Crimea and Ukraine to the Baltic nations.

Valdis Dombrovskis, vice president of the European Commission, warned that Russia was redrawing the map of Europe by force. Britain's Defense Secretary Michael Fallon last week said there was a "real and present danger" Russia's president would seek to destabilize Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania all small NATO members with enough legitimate issues of disenfranchisement among their Russian minorities to make them prime potential targets for any Putin push.

Lithuania moved to reintroduce the military draft this week, days after its foreign minister warned Russia was "behaving aggressively" and posed a threat to countries beyond Ukraine.

NATO insists that it is ready to confront any threat. But with its new members airing more and more anxiety over aggressive moves from Moscow, the alliance is beefing up its deterrent capabilities. Its "Top Guns" have been put on notice, part of the alliance's around-the-clock Baltic Air Policing mission.

"They're normally quite heavily armed all sorts of missiles and so on"

The importance of attention to the aerial front line has been underscored by a dramatic uptick in Russian incursions into European airspace though analysts say the moves are mostly for intimidation.

"It's essentially a way of saber rattling," said Justin Bronk, an analyst at the London-based Royal United Services Institute. "It's pointing out how quickly Russia can get inside NATO airspace in those countries with powerful military aircraft and it's also, of course, a way for Russia to test NATO readiness and response levels."

Italy's Ambassador to Lithuania, Stefano Taliani, called the Russian airspace violations "a kind of war game," telling NBC News that NATO pilots "know the rules."

Still, he warned that "in the Baltic states, we must be ready."

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NATO's 'Top Guns' on Notice Amid Fears of Putin Push

Published February 26, 2015

ROME NATO's chief says the alliance is ready to advise Libya's government on defense and security issues, saying the deteriorating situation in the country is posing new security threats for Europe that require a more robust defense.

NATO secretary-general Jens Stoltenberg also told a news conference Thursday in Rome that the alliance plans to bolster its surveillance of the region by using drones based at the NATO base at Sigonella in Sicily, starting next year.

NATO helped enforce an arms embargo and a no-fly zone over Libya during the 2011 ouster of Moammar Gadhafi's regime. The mission ended in October 2011, and the security situation has since spiraled out of control with two separate governments and multiple armed groups, including some affiliated with the Islamic State.

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NATO ready to advise Libya on security, defense matters, eyes more drone use in region

Washington The top U.S. military commander in Europe said on Wednesday the situation in Ukraine was "getting worse every day" as government forces struggled against Russian-backed rebels, but he declined to say whether he favored supplying defensive weapons to Kiev.

Air Force General Philip Breedlove, the NATO supreme allied commander, said the U.S. military had a deep relationship with Ukraine even before the current conflict and had a good sense of what military assets it needed, including intelligence, communications and jamming and counter-battery.

"I've prepared my advice and passed it up through my chain of command and that is now in the process of being considered," Breedlove told Pentagon reporters during a briefing. He did not offer details of his recommendations.

Breedlove spoke amid signs that a French- and German-brokered truce may be beginning to take hold. Rebels initially spurned the ceasefire, but Reuters journalists in eastern Ukraine saw artillery being moved away from the front in some areas on Wednesday.

Asked whether providing additional military assistance to Ukraine would prompt Russian President Vladimir Putin to "up the ante," Breedlove indicated there was no way to predict.

"Let's examine what Mr. Putin has done already: Well over a thousand combat vehicles, Russian combat forces, some of their most sophisticated air defense, battalions of artillery. I would say that Mr. Putin has already set the ... ante very high."

Breedlove said no one could predict with any accuracy what Putin's reaction would be to tougher Western sanctions on Russia or providing Ukraine with military assistance. As a result, he said it was important to make the best judgment possible and find a way forward.

"What is clear is that right now it is not getting better, it is getting worse every day," he said.

Asked whether the situation was likely to worsen even if the U.S. and Western allies did nothing further, Breedlove said that was already happening.

"We have seen a steady escalation," he said, noting that when Russian forces initially went into eastern Ukraine they tried to conceal their presence and create "ambiguity to confuse whether they were actually in there."

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NATO commander: Ukraine crisis is 'getting worse every day' (+video)

The fighting in eastern Ukraine is getting worse every day and Western efforts to deter Russian intervention are having little effect, NATOs top military commander said Wednesday.

In appearances on Capitol Hill and at the Pentagon, Air Force Gen. Philip M. Breedlove, the commander of U.S. and NATO forces in Europe, gave a decidedly pessimistic account of the Ukrainian conflict. He also predicted that Russias success in destabilizing Ukraine would embolden President Vladimir Putin to sow divisions elsewhere as part of a strategy to weaken NATO politically and expand Moscows influence in the region.

With the Obama administration wrestling with the question of whether to respond more aggressively by providing arms to the Ukrainian government, Breedlove acknowledged that such a move would be a gamble. I cant tell you what is going on inside Mr. Putins head, he said, adding that U.S. officials are unsure whether sending arms to Kiev would cause Russia to back down, or escalate the war.

We have to be cognizant that if we arm the Ukrainians, it could cause positive results. It could cause negative results. But what were doing right now is not changing the results on the ground, he said during testimony before the House Armed Services Committee.

Later, during a press conference at the Pentagon, Breedlove said he has submitted formal recommendations to the White House, via his chain of command at the Pentagon, on what other measures Washington should take to push back against Moscow and its support for pro-Russian rebels in eastern Ukraine.

Although he declined to elaborate on his proposals, Breedlove said that in order to turn the tide in Ukraine, the United States and its NATO allies need to develop a more effective mix of diplomatic, military and economic tactics.

We dont want a war of grand proportions in Ukraine. We must find a diplomatic and political solution, he said. What is clear is that this is not getting better. It is getting worse every day.

Obama administration officials have said they are weighing a new round of economic sanctions against Russia as well as whether to send anti-tank missiles and other weaponry to Ukraine. Until now, Washington has limited its military assistance to non-lethal aid, such as body armor, night-vision goggles, radios and uniforms.

There is rising bipartisan support in Congress for the idea of arming the Ukrainians, with many lawmakers criticizing Obama for being too cautious. But some influential NATO allies, including Germany and France, have resisted the idea, arguing that it would only make matters worse.

We have to be absolutely straightforward to say that none of us knows what Mr. Putin will decide, Breedlove said. If we take action, many believe hell accelerate. If we take action, others believe it may raise the cost to him, and he might make another decision.

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NATO commander warns about deteriorating situation in Ukraine

Washington The top U.S. military commander in Europe said on Wednesday the situation in Ukraine was "getting worse every day" as government forces struggled against Russian-backed rebels, but he declined to say whether he favored supplying defensive weapons to Kiev.

Air Force General Philip Breedlove, the NATO supreme allied commander, said the U.S. military had a deep relationship with Ukraine even before the current conflict and had a good sense of what military assets it needed, including intelligence, communications and jamming and counter-battery.

"I've prepared my advice and passed it up through my chain of command and that is now in the process of being considered," Breedlove told Pentagon reporters during a briefing. He did not offer details of his recommendations.

Breedlove spoke amid signs that a French- and German-brokered truce may be beginning to take hold. Rebels initially spurned the ceasefire, but Reuters journalists in eastern Ukraine saw artillery being moved away from the front in some areas on Wednesday.

Asked whether providing additional military assistance to Ukraine would prompt Russian President Vladimir Putin to "up the ante," Breedlove indicated there was no way to predict.

"Let's examine what Mr. Putin has done already: Well over a thousand combat vehicles, Russian combat forces, some of their most sophisticated air defense, battalions of artillery. I would say that Mr. Putin has already set the ... ante very high."

Breedlove said no one could predict with any accuracy what Putin's reaction would be to tougher Western sanctions on Russia or providing Ukraine with military assistance. As a result, he said it was important to make the best judgment possible and find a way forward.

"What is clear is that right now it is not getting better, it is getting worse every day," he said.

Asked whether the situation was likely to worsen even if the U.S. and Western allies did nothing further, Breedlove said that was already happening.

"We have seen a steady escalation," he said, noting that when Russian forces initially went into eastern Ukraine they tried to conceal their presence and create "ambiguity to confuse whether they were actually in there."

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NATO commander: Ukraine crisis is 'getting worse every day'