Daily Archives: December 21, 2014

Amid increasing speculation that the ruble's collapse could shake Vladimir Putin's grip on power, the Russian president addressed his critics at his annual news conference. (Reuters)

MOSCOW A year ago, most Ukrainians didnt want to join NATO. U.S. tanks werent doing training exercises near the Russian border. And a dollar bought 33 rubles.

But after the most tumultuous stretch of President Vladimir Putins 15 years in power, Russia is confronting a new reality. Ukraine the part not held by rebels has turned firmly toward Europe. NATO troops are on alert in the Baltics, hard up against the Russian frontier. And the ruble has lost nearly half its value against the dollar, wiping away years of gains for the Russian middle class.

Putin has also won major victories, foremost among them the annexation of Ukraines Crimean Peninsula, an achievement he said would be inscribed in the annals of Russian history alongside the exploits of Catherine the Great. A frozen conflict in eastern Ukraine gives him leverage over the rest of that country. And his approval ratings are at record highs, a measure of how skillfully he has convinced people that he is confronting a West determined to declaw the powerful Russian bear.

Many of the developments of the past year run counter to Putins most important strategic goals, including furthering the prosperity that was crucial to consolidating power in his first years in office. Russia enters the new year on unsteady footing, as falling oil prices and tough Western sanctions threaten to cripple its economy. The ruble lost 20 percent of its value in just hours on Tuesday before rebounding .

But in a swaggering, year-end news conference last week, Putin showed little sign of distress. The West would have found another way to attack Russia, even without Crimea, he said. He promised the economy would be better than ever in two years. Divorced in 2013, he even announced he had found love.

Emerging markets across Asia are closing out 2014 on a bad note, as Russias ruble is crashing and investors are fleeing. (Reuters)

Despite the Russian leaders assurances that prosperity is around the corner, Kremlin advisers, diplomats and analysts say that no stability is in sight.

This is not the price we have to pay for Crimea, Putin said last week. This is actually the price we have to pay for our natural aspiration to preserve ourselves as a nation, as a civilization, as a state.

It is a steep price. One of Putins primary goals has been to fend off NATO, the Western defense alliance, which many Russians see as a threat to their security. NATOs 2004 expansion to the Baltic states and thus to Russias borders is a major thorn in Putins side. Kremlin advisers say he was convinced that Ukraine was the next target. That would have threatened the base used by Russias Black Sea fleet in Crimea.

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For Putin, a year of successes and failures on Ukraine, NATO and the West