Kentucky Sen. Rand Pauls presidential campaign is less than a day old but already suffers from an identity crisis. Paul wants to win, but he can only do so if he is seen as more mainstream than his father, Ron Paul, who ran for president in 2008 and 2012. At the same time, Paul cant completely jettison the far-left and far-right positions that have made him a hero to the substantial number of Republican libertarians who made up his fathers base. <\/p>\n
In Pauls dream world, hell satisfy everyone. In the most likely real world, hell end up satisfying no one. <\/p>\n
The most obvious path for Paul to win the GOP nomination is to build on the 21 percent of the vote his father earned in Iowa in 2012, and the 23 percent Paul Sr. picked up in New Hampshire that year. In a divided primary field, that might not seem so difficult; 25 percent might be enough to win both states. And with wins in the first two contests, Paul might be able to ride the Big Mo to the nomination. <\/p>\n
But right now, Paul isnt anywhere close to where his father ended up in either state in 2012. Paul is polling at a little less than 9 percent in Iowa and nearly 11 percent in New Hampshire. Thats far closer to the percentage of the vote earned by Paul Sr. in both states during his 2008 bid for the presidency, which was far less relevant than his 2012 run. <\/p>\n
In fact, Paul is losing support across the board. While he was initially able to outpace his fathers 2012 success, his national numbers have been dropping over the last year. <\/p>\n<\/p>\n
Well see a lot of ups and downs in the 2016 campaign, but theres reason to read more into Pauls recent polling slide, as hes spent the last year trying to increase his appeal with the GOP establishment, particularly on foreign policy. <\/p>\n
When was the last time you heard Paul accused of being an isolationist? He used to advocate for cutting foreign aid to Israel, but now he offers pro-Israeli bill after pro-Israeli bill to cut off funding to the Palestinians. He once seemed to favor President Obamas diplomatic overtures to Iran, but he signed Sen. Tom Cottons letter aimed at hurting those negotiations. Paul was once reluctant to get involved in fighting the Islamic State, but he now wants more airstrikes. <\/p>\n
There really isnt good public data on the views of libertarian Republican voters, but interviews and internal polls suggest that Pauls evolution on foreign policy has been too successful in separating him from his father, and has eroded his libertarian credentials. Ron Pauls 2012 Iowa campaign chairman Drew Ivers would prefer if [Rand Paul] had a different strategy than meeting [mainstream Republicans] in the middle. Aaron Day of the libertarian Free State movement in New Hampshire sees less enthusiasm for Rand Paul than for his dad. <\/p>\n
To get to 25 percent in the two early states, Paul cant afford many libertarian defections in either. A recent internal Liberty Iowa poll showed that Paul was the choice of about two-thirds of Ron Pauls Iowa convention delegates. That may seem like a lot, but if Paul wins only 70 percent of his fathers backers that puts him at 15 percent of the vote in Iowa. Hed need to build on his dads support by 10 percentage points from one of the GOPs other wings. <\/p>\n
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