An article in Ladies Home Journal predicted 2001 a century earlier. Heres a video version:<\/p>\n
Futurism is a hit and miss business: Fast food is predicted (3:40) but so is the extinction of the horse (3:20). Apparently, the futurist, John Elfreth Watkins, Jr., did not foresee a future for horses in recreation and sports except for the rich.<\/p>\n
He predicted the internet and wireless communications in principle (5:57, 13:29): A husband sitting in the middle of the Atlantic will be able to converse with his wife sitting in her boudoir in Chicago. But, surprisingly, he did not see much of a commercial future for the airplane but rather favored dirigibles and electrified ships (8:20ff).<\/p>\n
He predicted high-speed trains but also electric sleighs for kids (17:16) Hmm. Did he not pause to think about concussion? No surprise, that idea never took off.<\/p>\n
When predicting the future, we all may tend to either underestimate the advances:<\/p>\n
The average American will live fifty years, as opposed to thirty-five<\/p>\n
US life expectancy was about 78.6 years in 2017, principally due to clean water, healthier living conditions, and emergency medicine.<\/p>\n
Or else we overestimate them:<\/p>\n
The trip to suburban home to office will require only a few minutes a penny will pay the fare Dreamin <\/p>\n
Commenters at YouTube offer some thoughts about what the 1901 futurist got right and wrong:<\/p>\n
giant guns will fire 25 miles or more Paris gun 13 years later could fire 81 miles.<\/p>\n
The whole well get rid of all the annoying flying bugs- thing showed that we clearly hadnt quite figured out the whole everything is connected aspect of the biosphere.<\/p>\n
and<\/p>\n
He predicted spy satellites in space before man had sent anything into space, granted he said theyd be balloons with cameras attached but they describe satellites<\/p>\n
2010 looks back on a 1909 prediction, in this case by Nicola Tesla (18561943) in Popular Mechanics:<\/p>\n
He wrote in the magazine that, one day it would be possible to transmit wireless messages all over the world.<\/p>\n
Tesla, who spent most of his adult life in America before his death in New York in 1943, imagined such a hand-held device would be simple to use and that, one day, everyone in the world would communicate to friends using it.<\/p>\n
This, he added, would usher in a new era of technology. <\/p>\n
Imagine. A handheld device<\/p>\n
2014 looks back on (roughly) 1914s predictions via French vintage postcards popular during the 1900 Worlds Fair and following:<\/p>\n
One thing you see in the cards is a tendency to assume some things wont change, even though they undoubtedly will. In one image, a couple flags down an aerotaxi. Thats futuristic enough, but the man is wearing spats and carrying a cane, while she has a parasol and an enormous hat with a feather. Did they really think transportation would undergo a revolution while fashion stayed frozen in time? In every one of these you see a mix of a futuristic concept with stuff that looks to us to be very old fashioned, [collector Ed] Fries said.<\/p>\n
At the same time, theres virtually no hint in the postcards of the truly transformative technologies of the last centurynamely personal computers and the internet. <\/p>\n
Heres one card (public domain) depicting an aerocab station as seen from 1900:<\/p>\n
Some of the jealously guarded cards are shown in this YouTube video.<\/p>\n
and<\/p>\n
2018 looks back on 1918s predictions:<\/p>\n
On January 6, 1918, the headline of an article in The Washington Times announced that the Automobile of Tomorrow Will Be Constructed Like a Moving Drawing Room. The author was writing about a prediction in Scientific American that described the car of the future. It would be water-tight and weather-proof, with sides made entirely of glass, and seats that could be moved anywhere in the vehicle. It would be decked out with power steering, brakes, heating, and a small control board for navigation. A finger lever would replace the steering wheel. Other designs imagined that cars would roll around on just three wheels, or on air-filled spheres to remove the need for shocks.<\/p>\n
So much is right; again, the parts that the futurist gets wrong likely stem from not envisioning practical issues like the increased hazard from smashed glass during a minor collision.<\/p>\n
The big disadvantage of making predictions for a century hence is that we probably wont get to find out if they come true.<\/p>\n
If you enjoyed this piece, you may also want to look at:<\/p>\n
Truth is not only stranger than fiction, it sometimes grows out of it. A senior editor at Wired told us a while back that science fiction writer H. G. Wellss 1914 tale, The World Set Free, formed part of the inspiration for the atomic bomb, exploded over Hiroshima in 1945.<\/p>\n
and<\/p>\n
Brilliant vision from a century ago foretells todays internet. In E. M. Forsters dystopia, people interact only through the Machine.<\/p>\n
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Original post: An article in Ladies Home Journal predicted 2001 a century earlier. Heres a video version: Futurism is a hit and miss business: Fast food is predicted (3:40) but so is the extinction of the horse (3:20). Apparently, the futurist, John Elfreth Watkins, Jr., did not foresee a future for horses in recreation and sports except for the rich. Continue reading
\nWhat Goes Right and Wrong When We Predict a High-Tech Future - Walter Bradley Center for Natural and Artificial Intelligence<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"