by: Michael Buresh Updated: Aug 5, 2017 - 8:21 AM <\/p>\n
Aug. 5, 2017 - There remain two areas of interest\/concern: <\/p>\n
(1) SW Gulf of Mexico & Bay of Campeche - gradual tropical development possible through the weekend\/early next week. This can be a \"hot bed' this time of year & any development would primarily impact Mexico &\/or far South Texas. The tropical wave - 90L - currently over the Caribbean is moving steadily west\/northwest showing some signs at attempted organization as the shear gradually lessen the more west the wave goes. The European model continues to be the strongest taking a hurricane into Mexico well south of Brownsville, Texas while the GFS model holds off development a little longer longer resulting in a somewhat weaker system but hitting about the same area. The UKMET model shows little or no development keeping the low pressure farther south & therefore more over the land mass of Mexico & Central America. It would appear the window for greatest concern for a full fledged tropical cyclone hit south of Texas would be Tue.\/Wed. (if the storm develops). <\/p>\n
(2) Eastern & Central Atlantic where an active tropical wave ('99-L') has a good chance to develop into a tropical cyclone but is showing no signs of organization for the moment. The GFS model has been the most emphatic on this wave becoming a powerful hurricane & making a beeline west\/northwest underneath the strong Bermuda high over the Central\/Eastern Atlantic though has backed off on recent model runs (that's why one should never get too wrapped up in individual model cycles). The European model eventually dissipates a weak tropical cyclone... the UKMET model is generally somewhere inbetween. It's most likely the a faster\/stronger developing system would end up farther north (poleward) while a weaker system would go farther west largely steered by the low level trade winds. For the moment.... I favor a weaker system that ends up farther west - at least initially. The problem could be in the longer term when conditions might become more favoarable for stronger development (late next week\/next weekend - ish). <\/p>\n<\/p>\n<\/p>\n
'90L': <\/p>\n<\/p>\n
Another midsummer cold front is diving deep into the South, but this one will stall earlier than last week's front. <\/p>\n<\/p>\n<\/p>\n
Imagery below courtesy CIMMS continues shows the persistent stream of African Saharan dust (orange & red) breaking up a little but reorganizing off the NW coast of Africa: <\/p>\n<\/p>\n
Water vapor imagery shows moisure returning to Florida.... <\/p>\n<\/p>\n
Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic shows the strong Bermuda high remains anchored over the Central Atlantic... <\/p>\n<\/p>\n
Surface analysis of the Gulf: <\/p>\n<\/p>\n
Caribbean: <\/p>\n<\/p>\n
Wind shear analysis (red is stronger shear)... <\/p>\n<\/p>\n
The W. Pacific...... the broad eye of \"Noru\" will make a hit on Southern & Central Japan over the weekend perhaps as a Cat. 1 or 2 typhoon (could be cause for concern on wave '99L' now in the E. Atlantic using teleconnection): <\/p>\n<\/p>\n
\"Noru\": <\/p>\n<\/p>\n
2017 Cox Media Group. <\/p>\n
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Originally posted here:<\/p>\n
"Talking the Tropics With Mike": Caribbean wave trying to organize ... - ActionNewsJax.com<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" by: Michael Buresh Updated: Aug 5, 2017 - 8:21 AM Aug. 5, 2017 - There remain two areas of interest\/concern: (1) SW Gulf of Mexico & Bay of Campeche - gradual tropical development possible through the weekend\/early next week Continue reading