In orbit, a shooting war\u00a0would never\u00a0really\u00a0stop. <\/p>\n
A violent conflict in\u00a0Earth\u2019s orbit could make space far more dangerous for human use long after hostilities cooled, according to a\u00a0study\u00a0published on Friday in the journal of Defense and Peace Economics. <\/p>\n
The study found that a\u00a0shooting war that destroyed 250 satellites would fill Earth\u2019s orbit with more than 25 million pieces of deadly space debris. <\/p>\n
Each new fragment would be the size of a marble or larger (1 centimeter, or 0.4 inches), and would be rocketing along at more than 22,000 miles an hour. <\/p>\n
Such a conflict would increase the number of deadly space fragments that size \u2014\u00a0currently, there\u00a0about half a million\u00a0in Earth\u2019s orbit\u00a0\u2014 by a factor of more than 50. <\/p>\n
And every single fragment would create\u00a0a \u201cpotentially lethal\u201d threat to spacecraft, study coauthor Jos\u00e9 Luis Torres of the University of Malaga wrote. <\/p>\n
Those risks aren\u2019t reserved\u00a0to\u00a0a full-scale war, the scientists noted. <\/p>\n
Every satellite destruction could result in more than 100,000 new pieces of such high-speed shrapnel, the researchers found \u2014 which could take as long as 1,000 years to burn up in the\u00a0Earth\u2019s atmosphere. <\/p>\n
That means a\u00a0conflict\u00a0in the planet\u2019s orbit\u00a0would raise the chance of the dreaded\u00a0Kessler Syndrome: an unintended cascade of space-based destruction which\u00a0would\u00a0severely limit \u2014 or even close off \u2014 human use of\u00a0the\u00a0orbit. <\/p>\n
That\u2019s a situation dramatized in Alfonso Caron\u2019s 2013 science-fiction film Gravity,\u00a0Space.com\u00a0noted \u2014 and it\u2019s one that the theory\u2019s proponent says is already underway. <\/p>\n
\u201cThe cascade process can be more\u00a0accurately thought of as continuous and as already started,\u201d former NASA scientist Don Kessler\u00a0explained\u00a0about the theory that bears his name. <\/p>\n
In such a situation, \u201ceach collision or explosion in orbit slowly results in\u00a0an increase in the frequency of future collisions,\u201d Kessler added. <\/p>\n
In Gravity, Cuaron depicts the syndrome as a row of falling orbital dominos\u00a0set off by\u00a0a blown-up spy satellite\u00a0releasing\u00a0a cloud of high-speed debris. <\/p>\n
That cloud blows up more satellites, creating an ever-growing cloud that eventually takes out the International Space Station itself. <\/p>\n
Kessler himself never envisioned the syndrome\u00a0as a short-term event\u00a0but\u00a0rather\u00a0as a gradual process in which human-caused debris would become \u2014 by a process of exponential growth \u2014 a bigger threat to space-based activity than meteorites. <\/p>\n
But Kessler also\u00a0published his seminal 1978 work\u00a0detailing the potential phenomenon\u00a0decades before China carried out the first anti-satellite missile test in 2007, which Russia followed\u00a0with its own test\u00a0in 2021. <\/p>\n
The U.S., meanwhile,\u00a0has banned the practice \u2014 in part, perhaps, because of the risk of blowback. <\/p>\n
Such anti-satellite missile tests \u201cdramatically increase the probability that the Kessler syndrome will occur,\u201d the scientists wrote. <\/p>\n
While space is infinite for practical purposes, the parts most useful to human civilization are decidedly limited.\u00a0 <\/p>\n
The more than 8,000 satellites we rely on for science, navigation and communications are all within about 22,000 miles of the earth\u2019s surface \u2014 with 90 percent within about 3,000 miles. <\/p>\n
That makes space analogous to the ocean: an immense whole accessible only through a far more congested \u2014 and contested \u2014 fringe of usable coastline. <\/p>\n
And like\u00a0the geopolitics of\u00a0coastal territories in contested seaways \u2014 notably the South and East China Sea \u2014\u00a0those\u00a0regarding\u00a0space have been heating up. <\/p>\n
The U.S. Space Force \u2014 the newest branch of the military \u2014 is preparing for conflicts\u00a0that spill over into space,\u00a0security news site Defense One reported\u00a0this week. <\/p>\n
That\u00a0preparation marks\u00a0a creeping shift away from the understanding written into the 1967 Outer Space Treaty. <\/p>\n
The\u00a0agreement bars \u201cthe establishment of military bases, installations and fortifications, the testing of any type of weapons and the conduct of military maneuvers on celestial bodies.\u201d <\/p>\n
While the treaty left some gray area \u2014 enough to allow space agency NASA\u00a0to draw from military officers and researchers\u00a0\u2014 even during the Cold War, space remained remarkably peaceful. <\/p>\n
Now tensions in Earth\u2019s orbit increasingly match those below. <\/p>\n
When first learning to pilot satellites in the years before China\u2019s anti-satellite test, \u201cI didn\u2019t really train against an adversary trying to destroy my satellite or deny its capabilities. That just wasn\u2019t required,\u201d Gen. Chance Saltzman, chief of space operations, told Defense One. <\/p>\n
But the Pentagon increasingly\u00a0appears\u00a0to view\u00a0space \u2014 home to the strategically vital communication, guidance and navigation systems that guide Earthbound weapons \u2014 as a logical extension of conflicts on the planet below. <\/p>\n
Under the Trump administration \u2014 which established the Space Force \u2014\u00a0the military\u2019s chief of space operations called for \u201can order of magnitude expansion of our ability to\u00a0protect and defend American interests\u00a0in cislunar space and beyond.\u201d <\/p>\n
The Pentagon has also invested in\u00a0a network of surveillance satellites\u00a0and is developing the technology to build potential bases for orbit around Earth and the moon.\u00a0Meanwhile, China and the Pentagon are attempting to find ways to destroy satellites \u2014 for aggression or maintenance \u2014 without leaving behind debris, an effort that may be motivated by the risk of Kessler syndrome. <\/p>\n
In 2021, one Chinese satellite \u2014 the\u00a0\u201cspace tug\u201d\u00a0SJ-21 \u2014 grabbed another defunct Chinese satellite in its robotic arms and pulled it a few hundred miles\u00a0into an unstable \u201csuper-graveyard drift orbit.\u201d <\/p>\n
In such a trajectory, the dead satellite will spiral into the Earth\u2019s gravity well until it burns up against the high friction of our atmosphere \u2014 leaving behind no orbital debris. <\/p>\n
Such technologies could imply a beginning of\u00a0\u201cgrappling\u201d-based space conflict, the commander of the U.S. space command told Congress in 2021. <\/p>\n
According to military contractor Northrop Grumman, a new generation of U.S. grapplers may be on the horizon \u2014 though\u00a0the contractor only listed civilian applications. <\/p>\n
The aerospace company is collaborating with the Naval Research Laboratory to deploy an \u201cautonomous\u201d robotic arm for spacecraft by 2025. <\/p>\n
The arm will be able to grab and manipulate spacecraft\u00a0\u201cthat were not designed to be grappled,\u201d\u00a0Bill Vincent, director of the Navy lab, told Breaking Defense. <\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
Excerpt from: In orbit, a shooting war\u00a0would never\u00a0really\u00a0stop. Continue reading
\nOrbital shooting war would risk ending the space age, scientists find - The Hill<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"