With just four months to go until May's Assembly election, everyone is trying to work out what the DUP's next move will be. <\/p>\n
It could be a captivating real-life chess game if it wasn't all so transparent.<\/p>\n
For a year now since Brexit's Northern Ireland Protocol came into force, the DUP has been in a bind. <\/p>\n
Dismal poll results helped prompt a messy leadership coup and a subsequent hardening of its anti-protocol rhetoric to try and reclaim support from unionist rivals.<\/p>\n
Sir Jeffrey Donaldson has since September been threatening to collapse the Stormont Executive if his party's demands over the protocol are not met. <\/p>\n
But the DUP leader has not acted on his warning, arguing that he was allowing space for talks between the UK and EU.<\/p>\n
In reality the party desperately wants a deal that it can sell as having achieved its vague aim of removing the Irish Sea border.<\/p>\n
It would then seek to claim the credit by arguing its threats brought about the concessions, hoping this would defuse the protocol debate before the election.<\/p>\n
However, UK-EU negotiations have slipped into the new year with no end in sight.<\/p>\n
That has left Sir Jeffrey with the only option of repeating his threats in an increasingly unconvincing manner.<\/p>\n
He said last week there will be \"major implications\" at Stormont if the UK government does not swiftly set a \"clear date\" for ending talks with Brussels. <\/p>\n
He has also been warning the British government not to press ahead with its pledge to introduce Irish language legislation unless it secures action on the protocol.<\/p>\n
Without any semblance of a deal the DUP can sell, the party is pushing itself closer towards the brink.<\/p>\n
But collapsing the Executive during the Covid-19 pandemic - when the Omicron variant is causing pressures on hospitals and schools - would be entirely unjustifiable for many voters. <\/p>\n
Significant legislation on issues including organ donation and climate change, which MLAs have been scrambling to pass before the current mandate ends, would also fall if Stormont goes down early.<\/p>\n
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Therefore the DUP has to come up with something else to save its blushes over so much bluffing.<\/p>\n
This is where the latest intervention from loyalist Jamie Bryson comes into play.<\/p>\n
He has threatened legal action, claiming that port checks required by the protocol are unlawful because they have not received Executive approval. <\/p>\n
A pre-action letter on behalf of a group he represents was sent to Agriculture Minister Edwin Poots, whose department oversees protocol-related checks at the ports. <\/p>\n
The DUP minister has since confirmed he intends bringing a paper to ministers before the end of January.<\/p>\n
This paper will not reach the Executive table, as Sinn Fin has already said it will block it from appearing on the agenda.<\/p>\n
If this happens, Mr Poots said it \"won't stop me carrying out my responsibilities which would be to stop the checks\".<\/p>\n
It is unclear whether the minister will indeed be able to order a halt to port checks, potentially placing the administration at odds with the UK government's legal duty to implement them.<\/p>\n
Another DUP tactic could be to reheat former leader Peter Robinson's in-out ministers protest from 2015 in response to claims of IRA involvement in a Belfast man's murder. <\/p>\n
Something like this would keep Stormont functioning while seeking to give the impression to unionist voters of a more hard-line response to the protocol.<\/p>\n
Mr Robinson has been back in the fold since Sir Jeffrey became leader, so many will speculate his hand in manoeuvres over the coming months.<\/p>\n
Another theory is that the DUP could be seeking to use its protocol objections as reasoning for refusing to re-form a power-sharing Executive after the election.<\/p>\n
With polling suggesting Sinn Fin could emerge as the largest party for the first time, unionism is tetchy about re-entering the Executive in second place.<\/p>\n
The many moving parts make events hard to predict. It will be a challenge for parties to hone their strategies in the battle for votes.<\/p>\n
But like any chess match, you can be sure the players in this game are always thinking several moves ahead.<\/p>\n
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Brendan Hughes: The DUP's election strategy over Brexit NI Protocol - Belfast Live<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" With just four months to go until May's Assembly election, everyone is trying to work out what the DUP's next move will be. It could be a captivating real-life chess game if it wasn't all so transparent. Continue reading