James M. Dorsey is an award-winning journalist and commentator on foreign affairs who has covered ethnic and religious conflict and terrorism across t
By scrapping the accord, Iran is likely to adopt a North Korean outlook: that nuclear military capability is central to its security.
As US President Donald Trump grapples with a set of bad options for responding to North Koreas rapidly expanding nuclear and ballistic missiles program, he risks creating a similar, potentially explosive dilemma in the Middle East with his efforts to tighten the screws on Iran, if not engineer an end to the nuclear agreement. In fact, Trumps apparent determination to either humiliate Iran with ever more invasive probes of universally-certified Iranian compliance with the agreement or ensure its abrogation could produce an even more dangerous crisis than the one he faces in East Asia.
Putting an end to the accordcould persuade Iran as did US policy under former President Barack Obama in the case of North Korea that a nuclear military capability is central to its security.
The risk in East Asia is a devastating military confrontation. In the words of US Republican Senator Lindsey Graham who warned, quoting Trump: If theres going to be a war to stop [North Korea], it will be over there.If thousands die, theyre going to die over there. Theyre not going to die over here.
The key difference between North Korea and Iran is not the specter of massive casualties in case of military action. It is the fact that in contrast to East Asia, where the pariah states nuclear proliferation has not prompted others in the region like South Korea and Japan to launch programs of their own, an Iranian return to an unsupervised nuclear program would likely accelerate an already dangerous arms race in the Middle East to include countries like Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates seeking a nuclear capability of their own. Even without the arms race, Israel the Middle Easts only, albeit undeclared, nuclear power threatened prior to the conclusion of the nuclear agreement to militarily take out Iranian facilities.
A termination of the agreement could also accelerate thinking in Riyadh and Washington about the utility of fostering unrest among Irans ethnic minorities in an attempt todestabilize the Islamic Republic and create an environment conducive to regime change. The strategy not only risks adding to conflict already wracking the Middle East, but further endangering stability in Pakistan.
Even without a covert effort to destabilize Tehran, Iranian leaders would likely see an end to the nuclear agreement as part of an effort to ultimately topple them a perception that would enhance the attractiveness of the North Korean model.
The risk is enhanced by another difference between the North Korean crisis and a potential one involving Iran. World powers agree that the North Korean program needs to be curbed but differ on how that can best be achieved. When it comes to Iran, however, the United States is likely to find itself out on a limb by itself. US partners in the agreement with Iran China, Russia, France, Germany and Britain believe Tehran is in full compliance and there is no justification for endangering an accord that prevents the Islamic Republic from developing a nuclear military capability for at least a decade. Similarly, Washingtons closest allies in the Gulf dread the prospect of escalated tensions with Iran.
Few countries have more to lose in such a scenario than Washingtons Gulf Arab allies, which is why they have urged the United States to rigorously enforce, but not scrap, the nuclear agreement As long as the JCPOA [Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action] is in force and being implemented, Iran will not become a nuclear power and there is therefore no need for a dangerous and unpredictable military confrontation. Without it, such a conflict, or the equally alarming and unacceptable emergence of Iran as a nuclear power, could become inevitable, saidHussein Ibish, a scholar at the Arab Gulf States Institute.
A litmus test of which way Trump will go looms large when the president,in October, must decide whether to certify to Congress for a third time that Iran is in compliance with the nuclear agreement. Indications suggest the president is looking for a way to either unilaterally abrogate the agreement or provoke Iran to walk away from it.
Trumps problem is that his unsupported view of the nuclear agreement is not an isolated issue, but fits a pattern that has alarmed Washingtons European and Asian allies as well as China and Russia. The pattern was established by his unilateral termination of US adherence to the Paris climate change accord; cancellation of the Trans-Pacific Partnership; cutting of funding to UN agencies; sowing of doubts about Americas commitment to the NATO principle that an attack on one is an attack on all; and an overall sense that he threatens security and stability by undermining the international order.
In July, Trump instructed White House aides to give him thearguments for withholding certificationlater this year. The Trump administration is also looking at pushing formore intrusive inspectionsof Iranian military sites that it deems suspicious, a move Iran has rejected and considers inflammatory. The president would likely argue that an Iranian refusal would amount to a violation of the agreement.
On the plus side, National Security Advisor H.R. McMasterfired two proponents of tougher action against Iran, Derek Harvey and Ezra Cohen-Watnick. Protgs of President Trumps strategic advisor and far-right ideologue, Steve Bannon, both Harvey and Cohen-Watnick were the two remaining hires of McMasters short-lived predecessor, General Michael Flynn, an anti-Iranian firebrand.
Concerned that new US sanctions imposed this month will scare off potential European investors, Iran, in a precursor of the kind of volatility that would be sparked by an end to the nuclear accord, said it wouldstrengthen the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) and its Al Quds Force. The target of US sanctions, the IRGC is the spearhead of growing Iranian influence across the Middle East with its involvement in Syria, Iraq, Lebanon and Yemen.
Trumps presidency could follow the same trajectory as the man he so often ridicules: George W. Bush that of a president who manufactured a crisis, ignited an endless conflict, and eroded Americas standing around the globe, warnedAmir Handjani in an article on the US effort to end the nuclear agreement.
The views expressed in this article are the authors own and do not necessarily reflect Fair Observers editorial policy.
Photo Credit: donfiore / Shutterstock.com
Join our community of more than 1,800 contributors to publish your perspective, share your narrative and shape the global discourse. Become a Fair Observer and help us make sense of the world.
Go here to read the rest:
- cloning | Definition, Process, & Types | Britannica - May 11th, 2020
- Cloning Fact Sheet | NHGRI - Genome.gov - May 11th, 2020
- A 'Star Wars' Fan Explained How the Palpatine Clone Was Teased Long Before 'The Rise of Skywalker' - Esquire - May 11th, 2020
- Coronavirus clone from Switzerland goes 'viral' - Innovation Origins - May 11th, 2020
- Chinas scientists accused of playing God by creating monstrous cloned apes and primates with human organs - The Sun - May 11th, 2020
- Hard Drive Cloning Software Market Research Growth by Manufacturers, Regions, Type and Application, Forecast Analysis to 2025 - Express Journal - May 11th, 2020
- Measuring the Impact: Demand for Disk Cloning Imaging Software Product Augmented by Global Outbreak of COVID-330 - 3rd Watch News - May 11th, 2020
- This self-cloning crayfish is scuttling into rivers and streams throughout Alberta - CBC.ca - April 29th, 2020
- Global Voice Cloning Market Professional Survey 2020 by Manufacturers, Regions, Types and Applications, Forecast to 2024 - Latest Herald - April 29th, 2020
- Bored of Zoom Meetings? Build a Digital Clone to Attend for You - Voicebot.ai - April 11th, 2020
- Scientists who cloned Dolly the sheep 'in talks over coronavirus treatment' - Metro.co.uk - April 11th, 2020
- Animal Crossing: New Horizons item cloning exploit lets devious players rake in the Bells - Eurogamer.net - March 24th, 2020
- Hard Drive Cloning Software Market Segmentation and Analysis by Recent Trends, Development and Growth by Regions to 2025 - Express Journal - March 24th, 2020
- I would clone my dog and Im not ashamed to admit it - The Guardian - March 5th, 2020
- 'Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker' Novelization Reveals Rey's Father is a Failed Palpatine Clone - /FILM - March 5th, 2020
- Send In The Clones - Escalon Times - March 5th, 2020
- Cheque cloning in Kochi: How north Indian racket scammed banks of Rs 2.6 cr - THE WEEK - March 5th, 2020
- Spy vs Spy: cloned phones, break-ins and rogue agents all in a days work at the State Security central - Daily Maverick - March 5th, 2020
- Phish Sends In The Clones As They Float Above MSG, Rescue Squad Saves Trey On NYE [Photos/Videos] - Live for Live Music - January 6th, 2020
- Using ETF clones to save on fees - InvestmentNews - January 6th, 2020
- Don't throw food in the trash in Vermont, or ask about salary history in New Jersey. Here are 7 state law changes for 2020 - USA TODAY - December 28th, 2019
- What a time to be alive: Reproductive breakthroughs of the 2010s that changed life as we know it - FOX 10 News Phoenix - December 28th, 2019
- The Mandalorian fans think episode 5 ending teases Boba Fettheres why - Polygon - December 13th, 2019
- DNA Embedded Into Everyday Objects Creates Perfect Clones of the Stanford Bunny - Nature World News - December 13th, 2019
- Dead dogs and cats cloned by grieving owners to have a piece of them back' - Daily Star - December 13th, 2019
- Huge Outlay on Voice Cloning Market Growth Analysis and Forecasting with Major Players are Baidu Inc, Google LLC, Lyrebird.ai, iSpeech AG, VivoText... - December 13th, 2019
- Master the art of face swapping with OpenCV and Python by Sylwek Brzczkowski, developer at TrustStamp - Packt Hub - December 13th, 2019
- In the digital age fraudsters dupe AIIMS of 12 crore by cloning cheques and signatures - National Herald - November 30th, 2019
- How The Mandalorian could unravel The Rise of Skywalkers biggest mysteries - Digital Trends - November 30th, 2019
- 'Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker': This 'Mandalorian' Baby Yoda Fan Theory Could Explain Everything - Showbiz Cheat Sheet - November 30th, 2019
- When The Mandalorian takes place and what it means for Baby Yoda - Polygon - November 23rd, 2019
- Behind the Mask: Theories and Analysis for Watchmen S1E5 - 25YearsLaterSite.com - November 23rd, 2019
- 'Star Wars 9' theory: 'Mandalorian' cloning could retcon Rey's origins - Inverse - November 17th, 2019
- 'Watchmen': How Lady Trieu May Connect to Ozymandias's Clone Factory - Decider - November 17th, 2019
- The Mandalorian: Did Dr. Pershings patch give away his intentions? - Dork Side of the Force - November 17th, 2019
- Star Wars Theory: The Mandalorians Baby Yoda Is A Clone - Screen Rant - November 17th, 2019
- Facebook on the Road to Copy Instagram: Popular Photos in the Making - Digital Information World - November 17th, 2019
- Rick and Morty: Operation Phoenix Is the Universe's Most Dangerous Weapon - CBR - Comic Book Resources - November 17th, 2019
- The Star Wars movies debrief: Attack Of The Clones recap, legacy and best bits - Den of Geek UK - November 14th, 2019
- INDIA Indian doctor: Medical innovation should not try to replace the Creator - AsiaNews - November 14th, 2019
- The Mandalorian Hints at the Return of Kamino Cloning | CBR - CBR - Comic Book Resources - November 14th, 2019
- Here's a The Mandalorian Clone Theory and What It Could Mean - /FILM - November 14th, 2019
- Voice Cloning Market Industry Insights, Top Trends, Drivers, Growth and Forecast to 2028 - Downey Magazine - November 14th, 2019
- Facebook Tried to Acquire Musical.ly For Six Months In 2016 - Digital Music News - November 14th, 2019
- Is tissue culture the future of growing cannabis? - Leafly - November 14th, 2019
- Browns Odell Beckham Jr. said it was his dream to be teammates with Tom Brady - The Boston Globe - October 24th, 2019
- Aliens Already Invaded Earth With Tiny Probes, New Study Claims - International Business Times - October 24th, 2019
- The future of tequila: How clones, bats and biodiversity will help agave survive - The Dallas Morning News - October 22nd, 2019
- Tom Brady and Bob Kraft get the last laugh with quarterbacks cameo in Netflix series - The Boston Globe - October 22nd, 2019
- Living With Yourself Finale Recap: Me, Myself, and You - Vulture - October 20th, 2019
- Muskegon-area Week 8 football picks: With 2 blockbusters, cloning is appealing - MLive.com - October 20th, 2019
- Eminem 'cloned' conspiracy explodes after rapper releases track 'exposing theory' - Daily Star - October 20th, 2019
- Apple Card user says they were a victim of fraud despite never using their physical card - iMore - October 20th, 2019
- Intact Genomics Awarded the Patent of Fungal Artificial Chromosome Technologies - Suburban Journals - September 26th, 2019
- 'Star Wars 9' theory explains Snoke, Rey, and Palps return all at once - Inverse - September 26th, 2019
- Number plate cloning how you could get stung - RACQ Live - August 25th, 2017
- Crooks cloning number plates to lump innocent drivers with fines - 9news.com.au - August 25th, 2017
- Three arrested in Uttarakhand for withdrawing Rs 37 lakh by cloning ... - The New Indian Express - August 25th, 2017
- Cloning Couture | Exploring the world of couture sewing - August 20th, 2017
- Cloning of debit, credit cards: Key accused held, search on for 4 ... - The Indian Express - August 20th, 2017
- Ghana national held for withdrawing money by cloning ATM cards - India Today - August 18th, 2017
- Physicists measure complementary properties using quantum clones - Phys.Org - August 16th, 2017
- Nigerian held for duping Delhiites by cloning cards at ATMs | Delhi ... - Times of India - August 16th, 2017
- Disgraced Korean scientist Hwang Woo-suk loses legal battle over mammoth cloning tech - The Korea Herald - August 15th, 2017
- 'Card cloning' device puts key card entry at risk - WTHR - August 15th, 2017
- Using 'tap and go' will protect against fraud through 'ghost' EFTPOS terminals, police say - ABC Online - August 15th, 2017
- CRISPR-Cleaned Piglets Have Been Cloned for Organ Donation - Big Think - August 15th, 2017
- Fast facts about cloning - WPSD Local 6: Your news, weather, and sports authority - WPSD Local 6 - August 13th, 2017
- China's cloning of genetically modified dogs for research raises concerns - SBS - August 13th, 2017
- Orphan Black is ending, but how far has human cloning come? - The Verge - August 11th, 2017
- Over 50 Nalasopara residents lose Rs 10 lakh to debit card cloning - Times of India - August 11th, 2017
- Scientists are Getting Closer To Using Pig Organs For Human Transplants - TIME - August 11th, 2017
- Porsche 911-Look Fiat 500 Is Like A Cloning Experiment Gone Wrong - Motor1.com - August 8th, 2017
- VACC warns of number-plate cloning scam, motorists left to prove innocence - CarAdvice - August 8th, 2017
- How to clone a hard drive or SSD - PC Gamer - August 8th, 2017
- A natural gas boom in the Adriatic has created teeming nurseries of self-cloning baby jellyfish - Quartz - August 6th, 2017
- Here's the list of some of the famous living creatures that were patented - Economic Times - August 6th, 2017
- Playing with Fire: Trump's Iran Policy Risks Cloning North Korea - International Policy Digest (press release) (blog) - August 5th, 2017
- That dream bike may not be the bargain you hoped for as the number plates may be cloned - Leicester Mercury - August 4th, 2017
- Cloning, Counterfeiting and Fraud in digital payments what to know to stay safe - Technology Zimbabwe - August 3rd, 2017