Friday NBA Predictions, Picks & Betting Odds (Nov. 29): Can the Lakers Slow the Wizards Offense? – The Action Network

Posted: November 30, 2019 at 10:19 am

This NBA season, Im trying something new. Im going to write a daily piece that highlights everything bettors and DFS players need to know for that nights slate. For more on what to expect, read the inaugural piece.

On Wednesday I finished 3-6 for -2.9 units. While I dont want to get sucked into the past, I think its worth reviewing things each day.

The best way to do that is to look at closing line value (CLV), which is just measuring whether the line you bet moved for or against you by closing.

It ended up being a pretty mediocre day for CLV, although it looked better at times. The Rockets were up at -8 for the entire day but got bet down at the last minute to -7. The Jazz moved from +1.5 to a pickem or even favored after it was announced Rudy Gobert was playing, but late action pushed it back.

Anyway, the only game I lost value against the closing line was in the Lakers-Pelicans game, which moved down a half point.

Overall, it was a frustrating night. I think my process was right on my main writeup of Rockets-Heat with impending Miami regression and Jimmy Butler out, but I was apparently wrong about the Jazz, which I bet pretty hard. I have been expecting more from this Jazz team all season.

They havent been crazy disappointing or anything; theyre still above .500 and look to make the playoffs. But there are some concerning things about this team. The defense has been just fine better than expected even but the offense has been a problem. Its not really shooting; theyre 13th in eFG% while 20th in offensive efficiency overall.

The main issues have been turnovers and their shot profile, the latter of which is most concerning. Theres some data that suggests while shooting numbers are especially volatile early in the season (and in small samples anytime), a teams shot profile is a fairly sticky thing. After a month or so, if a team is taking mid-rangers at a high rate or getting to the rim a bunch, thats likely to stay the same for the season.

That makes sense: Shot profiles mostly come from personnel and scheme, which dont change unless theres a major injury or coaching change, whereas on-courtperformance can be very luck-based.

And the Jazz have been weird:

Maybe that reverts once players get more used to each other adding in any primary ball-handler (Mike Conley in this case) is a shock to a system but maybe it doesnt.

And if it doesnt, it potentially lowers their ceiling long-term, even if they still remain fine in the regular season and push toward the playoffs. It also potentially makes them more vulnerable on a night-to-night basis, especially if they get down.

I know it might get old to hear about shot profiles, analytics and the Moreyball movement in basketball constantly, but its a defining part of the current NBA zeitgeist for a reason. Math is important. And when youre consistently taking non-optimal shots, you are not the best version of yourself.

Anyway, enough about the Jazz and Wednesdays games. Lets get to todays huge 12-game slate (were skipping the Celtics-Nets early game) and find some angles.

Note: For updates, see the chat at the bottom of this post.

YTD Record:

Lets run through a couple angles Im eyeing.

What a way to start off the post-Thanksgiving holiday: betting on the New York Knickerbockers.

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Friday NBA Predictions, Picks & Betting Odds (Nov. 29): Can the Lakers Slow the Wizards Offense? - The Action Network

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