In 1963, in the depths of the Cold War, all of the futurists in the world could probably assemble in a largish conference room and still have space for an overhead projector. Half a century later, it would take a small stadium to hold all of the people who use the title in some form. The world of futures is a broad church today populated by everyone from author and inventor Ray Kurzweil and hisobsessive focus on the singularitytoKanye West with his future-esque fashionfetishes. While its been a relatively quiet profession for a long time, suddenly it seems like futurists are all around, feeding a growing appetite for all things strange, metallic, and digital. <\/p>\n
Why, and why now? <\/p>\n
Full disclosure:I do this for a living, having been given the title of futurist by an employer a decade ago. My practice hasnt been atypical of working futurists, formally using foresight and research to help big brand names, governments, and nonprofits navigate complexity. With a daily menu that can veer from the topicsdu jour(drones,algorithms gone wild,3D printing,augmented reality, andsmart cities) to long-running classics such asaging populations,green energyorfood sustainability, futurists work is seldom boring and often puts them face-to-face with the unusual, the atemporal, and the downright weird. While the world of the futurist used to be much farther removed from the general public, perhaps only appearing through an interest in science fiction, it now jumps off the front page of the broadsheets. <\/p>\n
There are different flavors of futurists. There is the professional, consulting kind, many of whom trained in a formal university or professional program, and use structured methods and tools to help large organizations make sense of trends and develop strategies. There are the self-proclaimed futurists who are enthusiasts of a specific area such as technology, food, health, culture and so on, who dedicate themselves to furthering a favored future (here I would place Kurzweil and kin). Then, there are the broader masses of folk who like the idea of the future, and speak about leading others there, or just surround themselves in the trappings of all that is shiny and future-esque. <\/p>\n
Superdensity is now <\/p>\n
One could argue,as I have before, that we are in a pretty future-dense moment, with a number of major global issues, from climate change to energy to health to media and communication all very obviously teetering on the edge of massive change. With major natural, social and economic systems facing perturbations, and with the global economy so closely intertwined,we feel the rattle from these shocksin ways we didnt decades ago. Global systems, and real-time awareness, create effects on a worldwide scale. Anuclear accident in one country, can cause a rethink of energy policya continent away, even before the trace radiation spreads.Risks tracked by groups like the World Economic Forumappear to be multiplying; evenCambridge University has recently set up a center for the study of existential risks <\/p>\n
Short of world wars and oil embargoes, we havent until recently sensed every shake or shudder in another part of the world. But when a new smartphone or piece of code released in one country this morning can be in the hands of another by tonight, orsupply chains are disrupted quickly by unexpected events, or a biological innovation can be knocked off quickly bysemi-pros working in a closet, not only do business and governments look for advice, but societies also seek some kind of orientation. <\/p>\n
Its possible that these volatile times have encouraged more people to identify as futurists, or as future-minded.The usual professional training groundsa handful of universities, corporations with internal future research teams, and specialist agenciesarent producing markedly more futurists these days than they have in the past decade (though several newuniversity programshave joined a few of theoldergraduatedegree programs). There are probably fewer than 100 new graduates from these programs a year, and many dont go on to punditry, but work within companies. However, the market is calling for expert opinions at a far higher rate as the velocity and intensity of the new increases. The boom in tech blogs and major media microsites focusing solely on the future has put more focus on finding people who are on the front lines of making these futures happen, or dealing with their consequencesengineers, social scientists, designers, coders, ethicists, etc., as well as generalist pundits. <\/p>\n
From future to recent past, quickly Science fiction writer Bruce Sterling determined that parts of future promised in the 1960s, 70s, and 80s has now reached a present state. For Sterling, this has meant spending more timechronicling that weird present, andcounseling those fashioning the next phaseas a design critic and mentor. <\/p>\n
Big brands have also entered the fray, taking advantage of the lack of a coherent narrative about the future to do what I call strategic bending.These companiesposition themselvesas creators of The Future in high-budget marketing of the kind we now see around cars, mobile phones, and defense systems.Because so much of their business is wrapped up in the sales of so-called ecosystems of complementary products and services (think iEverything), they need the average person to see their brands way as the path into to the future. <\/p>\n
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Everyone Is A Futurist Now<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" In 1963, in the depths of the Cold War, all of the futurists in the world could probably assemble in a largish conference room and still have space for an overhead projector. Half a century later, it would take a small stadium to hold all of the people who use the title in some form. The world of futures is a broad church today populated by everyone from author and inventor Ray Kurzweil and hisobsessive focus on the singularitytoKanye West with his future-esque fashionfetishes. Continue reading