EDITOR, The Tribune<\/p>\n
Being a Philomath and in particular a Matholephile, I created a mathematic model for the Bahamass Coronavirus cases and death. This is not accurate but it gives a ball park figure. It is similar to predicting the weather; things could change but there is a high probability it will occur.<\/p>\n
The model predicts the following: March 2020, 10(1)= 10, April 2020, 9(2)= 81, May 2020, 4(3) = 64, June 2020, 4(4)= 256, July 2020, 4(5) = =1024, August 2020 3.5(6) = 1838, September 2020 3(7) = 2 187, October 2020, 2.65(8) = 2432, November 2020, 2.4(9) = 2.210 = 2 656, December 2020, 2.1(11) = 3 503, January 2021 2(12) = 4 096, February 2021, 1.9(13) = 4 205 March 2021, 1.8(14) = 3 748. Microbial growth goes through 4 stages: lag, growth, steady and decline, The COVID-19 should start to decline unless, there is a third wave due to an unforeseen agent(s).<\/p>\n
The Bahamas should have about 70 deaths by April 2021, using the current death rate of 1.6%. There should be between 4 000 to 4 500 cases of COVID-19 detected in the Bahamas within a year. Using the flu which infects 3% to 11% of a population annually, the Bahamas should have 11 814 to 43 319 cases of COVID-19. Since everyone is not tested, the number of cases detected will be much lower.<\/p>\n
Lockdown and quarantine will change the timeline but the final result will be similar. This is how virus and bacteria usually behave. I am making this model public to start the discussion on long-term projections.<\/p>\n
PS: numbers are raised to the power eg, 2 to the 12 power 1.8 to the 14 power (in brackets).<\/p>\n
BRIAN E PLUMMER<\/p>\n
Nassau,<\/p>\n
August 23, 2020.<\/p>\n
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Go here to see the original: <\/p>\n
All the virus secrets are revealed in the numbers - Bahamas Tribune<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" EDITOR, The Tribune Being a Philomath and in particular a Matholephile, I created a mathematic model for the Bahamass Coronavirus cases and death. This is not accurate but it gives a ball park figure Continue reading