Bitcoin (BTC) starts another week in a bullish mood as hurdles line up to shape price trajectory.<\/p>\n
Cointelegraph presents five factors determining where BTC\/USD may go in the coming days, and what traders should look out for.<\/p>\n
Stocks saw records last week with the S&P 500 hitting all-time highs. Despite a lower overall impact on Bitcoin, moves on macro markets are still more than capable of spilling over into cryptocurrency.<\/p>\n
Upward momentum continued on Monday, with stocks futures up but a sense of foreboding building about an upcoming speech from the United States Federal Reserve.<\/p>\n
Markets were waiting to hear news about inflation, which rumors previously suggested could target up to 4%.<\/p>\n
This would be a perfect storm for buoying safe havens, analysts said, in an environment which has already sent the U.S. dollar index to two-year lows and flooded the market with excess liquidity from quantitative easing.<\/p>\n
The news will come from Fed Chair Jerome Powell during its annual Economic Policy Symposium, held in Jackson Hole, Wyoming on Thursday.<\/p>\n
More clarity will no doubt be sought via this weeks Jackson Hole Symposium, Ben Emons of macro analysis firm Medley Global Advisors told Bloomberg on Monday.<\/p>\n
U.S. futures were meanwhile up on the day, while Asia set a bullish tone thanks to Washington reassuring on not blocking Chinese social media network WeChat shares in owner Tencent rose over 4% as a result.<\/p>\n
On short timeframes, Bitcoin was pleasing analysts as the week began. For Cointelegraph Markets analyst Michal van de Poppe, a run to lower levels was now less likely after BTC\/USD avoided a retest of levels below $11,500 on Sunday night.<\/p>\n
In a transaction analysis video on Sunday, van de Poppe added that in the event of a breakdown, the buy the dip level to look out for would nonetheless fall below $10,000.<\/p>\n
The real level Im watching for buy the dip levels if we do break out is between $9,600 and $9,900, he summarized.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n
BTC\/USD short-term analysis. Source: Michal van de Poppe\/ Twitter<\/p>\n
Concerns over a break below five figures had become less common among commentators, while Van de Poppe mostly discarded rumors of a pullback to below $8,000.<\/p>\n
The last time that Bitcoin traded below $10,000 was at the end of July.<\/p>\n
A mixed bag for Bitcoin fundamentals saw network difficulty adjust upwards 3% to hit new all-time highs, but hash rate trend lower.<\/p>\n
According to data from monitoring resource BTC.com, difficulty increased by 3.6% on Monday to hit 18.17 trillion.<\/p>\n
The new record suggests that miner participation in the network is stronger than ever, and competition is being reflected in how taxing it is to solve equations on the blockchain.<\/p>\n
The difficulty adjusts automatically and is an essential feature of Bitcoin as self-regulating hard money. Issuance remains fixed regardless of how high or low difficulty is.<\/p>\n
Meanwhile, the hash rate declined around 8% over the past seven days, estimates show, currently circling 119 exahashes per second (EH\/s).<\/p>\n<\/p>\n
Bitcoin 7-day average hash rate six-month chart. Source: Blockchain<\/p>\n
Given the imprecise nature of hash rate measurements, it is likely that the number will normalize after the difficulty adjustment, continuing a broad uptrend in place since just after Mays block subsidy halving cut miner revenues by 50% overnight.<\/p>\n
The spotlight could fall once again on crypto derivatives this week as the month draws to a close and settlements near.<\/p>\n
62,000 BTC ($730 million) worth of Bitcoin options will expire on Aug. 28, reminiscent of the end-of-month action from June.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n
Bitcoin options open interest expiry dates. Source: Skew<\/p>\n
Traditionally, settlement junctures exert downward pressure on BTC price, but as Cointelegraph reported, Junes near-$1 billion expiry turned out to be a non-event for the market.<\/p>\n
With every week that passes, however, futures reach a wider audience, evidenced by Grayscales record inflows in August.<\/p>\n
At the same time, on-chain analytics resource Skew reported record short positions for CME Groups Bitcoin futures, something it described as most likely due to the profitability of the so-called cash & carry trades.<\/p>\n
These are performed between the futures price and spot price of Bitcoin as a form of arbitrage.<\/p>\n
Bitcoin investor sentiment is extremely greedy and getting greedier.<\/p>\n
That was the conclusion from sentiment indicator the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, which on Monday remained firmly bearish on the overall market mood.<\/p>\n
As Cointelegraph reported last week, the Index almost hit record greed before a slight retracement, nonetheless rebounding toward its maximum 100\/100 over the weekend.<\/p>\n
The Index uses a basket of factors to measure whether the market is oversold or conversely due for a correction.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n
Crypto Fear & Greed Index as of Aug. 24. Source: Alternative.me<\/p>\n
In terms of volatility, using Bollinger Bands on BTC\/USD likewise hints that fresh price action is incoming, but whether it will be up or down remains uncertain.<\/p>\n
Last week, creator John Bollinger himself described the current Bitcoin rally as picture perfect.<\/p>\n
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Fed, futures and fundamentals: 5 things to watch in Bitcoin this week - Cointelegraph<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Bitcoin (BTC) starts another week in a bullish mood as hurdles line up to shape price trajectory. Continue reading