North Korea now may be embarking on a new path, scrappingat least for the foreseeable futuretwenty-five years of denuclearization diplomacy under four US presidents. Thus, fears of renewed fire and fury and possible conflict on the Korean Peninsula are mounting.<\/p>\n
Despite tireless, good-faith efforts by US-North Korea Envoy Steve Biegun to entice Pyongyang back to the negotiating table, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has revealed his intentions, making a strategic choice: to turn North Korea into ade factonuclear weapons state, like Israel or Pakistan. Kim is rejecting economic, security, and political benefits offered for dismantling his weapon of mass destruction.<\/p>\n
Instead, he is showcasing new missiles and appears to prefer a muddle through scenario building his future on some $300-$400 million in Bitcoins from ransomware, cybertheft, and other illicit activities, enhanced economic ties to Russia and China, as UN sanctions erode, and his own resources.<\/p>\n
While a channel for dialogue can and should be maintained, this raises a new challenge for the United States of how to live withand containa nuclear North Korea. Deterrence has worked for sixty-five years and, as Kim is not suicidal, it endures, though conflict by miscalculation remains a risk. But imminent missile, and possibly nuclear, tests will heighten tensions and war fears.<\/p>\n
To keep Pyongyangs capabilities in perspective, this graphic, updated as developments warrant, shows that North Korea still has additional work to do before it has a reliable, operational ICBM that can reach the United States.<\/p>\n
The graphic below is interactive. Click the boxes to learn more about each step.<\/p>\n
Robert A. Manning is a resident senior fellow in the Atlantic Councils Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security. Follow him on Twitter @Rmanning4.<\/p>\n
Retired Lt. Gen. Patrick OReilly is a nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Councils Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n
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North Korea's Progress Towards an ICBM (In One Graphic) - The National Interest Online<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" North Korea now may be embarking on a new path, scrappingat least for the foreseeable futuretwenty-five years of denuclearization diplomacy under four US presidents. Thus, fears of renewed fire and fury and possible conflict on the Korean Peninsula are mounting. Continue reading