Another day, another round of all-time highs? <\/p>\n
The Federal Reserve and earnings-season winner Facebook easily could help deliver a trifecta of record closes like we had yesterday. <\/p>\n
Bulls apparently have scented a softening in the Feds stance on inflation, as they keep sniffing at the somewhat dovish handout from Janet Yellen & Co. <\/p>\n
But billionaire investor Howard Marks smells something rotten, going by his latest cautionary memo and that provides our call of the day. <\/p>\n
The Oaktree Capital co-chairman gives plenty of reasons to worry about markets right now. Some examples: the recent exuberance over cryptocurrencies, the cheering for FAANG stocks, and the warm embrace of passive investing (index funds and ETFs). <\/p>\n
They show the temperature of todays market to be elevated. Not a nonsensical bubble just high and therefore risky, he writes. <\/p>\n
Regarding bitcoin BTCUSD, +5.64% and its cryptocurrency rivals, Marks says theyre not real and perhaps even a pyramid scheme. <\/p>\n
Read: This is what it will take for bitcoin to become a legit currency <\/p>\n
Here, in Markss own words, are the red flags he lists near the end of his 23-page memo: <\/p>\n
Some of the highest equity valuations in history. <\/p>\n
The so-called complacency index at an all-time high. <\/p>\n
The elevation of a cant-lose group of stocks. [the FAANG names] <\/p>\n
The movement of more than a trillion dollars into value-agnostic investing. [indexing] <\/p>\n
The lowest yields in history on low-rated bonds and loans. <\/p>\n
Yields on emerging market debt that are lower still. <\/p>\n
The most fundraising in history for private equity. <\/p>\n
The biggest fund of all time raised for levered tech investing. [Softbanks fund] <\/p>\n
Billions in digital currencies whose value has multiplied dramatically. <\/p>\n
So what to do now? Many market participants dont have the option to not invest, Marks notes. Oaktree will continue to follow its move forward, but with caution mantra, he writes. <\/p>\n
His full lengthy memo (Ive cut what I could, Marks says) is available here and worth a read. <\/p>\n
Futures for the Dow YMU7, +0.46% , S&P 500 ESU7, -0.04% and Nasdaq-100 NQU7, -0.68% are higher, after the Dow DJIA, +0.39% , S&P SPX, -0.10% and Nasdaq Composite COMP, -0.63% each achieved an all-time closing high yesterday. <\/p>\n
The dollar DXY, +0.55% is adding to yesterdays loss, and analysts are blaming the fall on the Fed swtiching its language on inflation to running below its target from running somewhat below. <\/p>\n
Gold GCQ7, +0.73% is capitalizing on the dollars drop, while oil CLU7, +0.86% has been choppy, but staying up big for the week. Europe SXXP, -0.11% is mixed, after Asia closed with gains. <\/p>\n
See the Market Snapshot column for the latest action. <\/p>\n
The ICE U.S. Dollar Index is touching a fresh 13-month low this morning, stretching its year-to-date decline to 8.5%. <\/p>\n
An ETF that tracks the buck the PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund UUP, +0.37% is showing a similar 2017 drop. And its the only currency ETF in the red for the year in the chart above from Charlie Bilello, the Pension Partners chart slinger. <\/p>\n
Read more: Stocks are ignoring U.S. political uncertainty, but the dollar isnt <\/p>\n
And see: U.S. stocks could get a powerful tailwind from the weaker dollar <\/p>\n
$500 billion Facebooks FB, +2.92% market value might hit that milestone if this mornings earnings-fueled premarket gain holds. <\/p>\n
On Wednesday, Amazon AMZN, -0.65% joined the $500 billion club, a select group that includes Apple AAPL, -1.89% ,Google parent company Alphabet GOOG, -1.45% GOOGL, -1.33% and Microsoft MSFT, -1.20% . <\/p>\n
See: Facebook keeps warning about growth, but growth doesnt stop <\/p>\n
Some big institutional investors look set to steer clear of Snapchat parent Snap SNAP, +4.48% after FTSE Russell announced a key decision on its indexes. The index provider plans to exclude companies that basically dont give public shareholders a voice. <\/p>\n
Amazons secret skunkworks lab called 1492 is looking into electronic medical records and other opportunities in health care, says a CNBC report. <\/p>\n
Too hot for a slice? Nestle NESN, -0.97% says warm summer temperatures have weakened spending on pizza and other products. <\/p>\n
AstraZeneca AZN, -14.91% AZN, -15.41% is on track for a big down day after a closely watched clinical trial failed. <\/p>\n
In five years time, scandal-hit Libor should be no more. <\/p>\n
Earnings season remains in full swing. Companies on the docket before the open include Comcast CMCSA, +0.20% , Twitter TWTR, -14.13% , Verizon VZ, +7.68% , Southwest LUV, -4.96% , Dow Chemical DOW, +0.21% , P&G PG, +1.55% , UPS UPS, -4.01% and Mastercard MA, -1.57% . <\/p>\n
Amazon, Starbucks SBUX, +2.69% and Intel INTC, +0.63% are among the names due to report after the close. <\/p>\n
In terms of economic data, reports on jobless claims and durable goods are on tap before the open. <\/p>\n
Check out: MarketWatchs Economic Calendar <\/p>\n
Ive been saying for months we should start with what we agree on, and try to build up. The previous strategy was to start big and try to have the whole kitchen sink in there. Sen. Rand Paul (R., Ky.) is among those signaling support for a skinny repeal of Obamacare. <\/p>\n
Read: GOP senators win further support for skinny repeal of Obamacare <\/p>\n
And see: Heftier bill to repeal Obamacare fails in Senate <\/p>\n
A ride broke apart at Ohios state fair, killing one person and injuring seven others. <\/p>\n
The things each state really dislikes are random. For N.D., its tapas. <\/p>\n
Swedens government is in trouble over its handling of a huge data breach. <\/p>\n
Brits are having fun writing captions for new photos of their MPs. <\/p>\n
Need to Know starts early and is updated until the opening bell, but sign up here to get it delivered once to your email box. Be sure to check the Need to Know item. The emailed version will be sent out at about 7:30 a.m. Eastern. <\/p>\n
Or Follow MarketWatch on Twitter or Facebook. <\/p>\n
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Bitcoin isn't real, and markets are darn hot, warns Howard Marks - MarketWatch<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Another day, another round of all-time highs? The Federal Reserve and earnings-season winner Facebook easily could help deliver a trifecta of record closes like we had yesterday Continue reading