Getty Images \/ Dan Kitwood \/ Staff <\/p>\n
Prepare to complain about the weather even more than usual - the Met Office has predicted that a record amount of rain could fall each winter for the next decade. <\/p>\n
Its new supercomputer, from computer company Cray, has forecast a one in three chance of record-breaking rain falling every year in at least one region in England and Wales between October and March. <\/p>\n
The supercomputer simulated hundreds of winters based on the current climate to predict what the weather could look like for years to come. <\/p>\n
And the results are not looking sunny. Some of the predicted winters were more extreme than any we've seen, and analysis of these simulated events showed the risk of record monthly rainfall in winter was seven per cent for south east England. <\/p>\n
This chance increased to 34 per cent when other regions were included. <\/p>\n
\"We shouldn't be surprised if events like this occur,\" says Nick Dunstone, second author of the report. \"Some people think this is a crazy, new risk. It's not. If we'd had these simulations before the floods of January 2014 we could have expected them. Models like this aren't perfect, but they give better estimations than observations alone, which are now largely outdated due to the changing climate.\" <\/p>\n
Jim Dale, senior risk meteorologist at British Weather Services, says a prediction is only as good as its outcome, but that doesn't mean it should be taken lightly. <\/p>\n
\"The crux of this prediction is that the more heat that is in the atmosphere, the more vigorous the storms get as they hold and release more water, making a much wetter climate not just during winter,\" he says. <\/p>\n
\"Climate change predictions should be treated with caution rather than disregard or seen as a scare-tactics - we are already seeing the effects of melting icebergs,\" Dale continues. \"It's a crystal ball exercise, but preparation is key. We will see if the government reacts.\" <\/p>\n
The supercomputer, which was fully installed at the beginning of this year following a 97m government grant, is the largest supercomputer dedicated to weather and climate science in the world. <\/p>\n
The research was conducted for the National Flood Resilience Review, which asked the Met Office to look into the likelihood of extreme rainfall for the next ten years. <\/p>\n
This new research has been named the UNSEEN (UNprecedented Simulated Extremes using ENsembles) method because it predicts future events. <\/p>\n
As extreme flooding is relatively rare, simulations can provide data on 1,750 years of winters, whereas real observations can only do so for 35. <\/p>\n
If it's developed further, this prediction method could be used to assess the risk of heatwaves, droughts, and cold spells and could help the government, contingency planners and insurers prepare for future events. <\/p>\n
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Met Office supercomputer predicts 10 years of record rain in ... - Wired.co.uk<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Getty Images \/ Dan Kitwood \/ Staff Prepare to complain about the weather even more than usual - the Met Office has predicted that a record amount of rain could fall each winter for the next decade. Its new supercomputer, from computer company Cray, has forecast a one in three chance of record-breaking rain falling every year in at least one region in England and Wales between October and March. Continue reading