Ted Cruz, we argued in February, is the most underrated candidate in the 2016 field -- for the simple reason that he can make a strong play for solo ownership of theTea Party \"lane\" of the primary electorate. If Cruz can carve out enough consistent votes from that group to stick around a while, we argued, his overall support could snowball as other candidates drop out. Other candidates, the theory goes, are in other, more crowded lanes in which they could split up the vote: Jeb Bush in the moderate\/establishment lane along with a few others, Rick Santorum and Mike Huckabee in the Evangelical lane (which Cruz made a play for on Monday as well), etc. <\/p>\n
But how big are those lanes? And who's dominating in which lane? Let's say there are five lanes: <\/p>\n
We can dispatch with the last one first; there simply isn't a lot of reliable recent polling on the overlap of Republicans and libertarian philosophy. In 2013, the Public Religion Research Institute estimated that 22 percent of Americans are consistently or broadly libertarian, 43 percent of whom identify with Republicans. <\/p>\n
One can also estimate the width of the Libertarian lane by looking at who turned out in New Hampshire in 2012. According to exit polling, 31 percent of voters indicated that they were moderate on social issues and conservative on fiscal ones, fitting the general profile of a libertarian-leaning Republican. But that's New Hampshire, whichis arguably one of the most libertarian states in the country (\"Live Free or Die,\" etc.). <\/p>\n
In 2012, libertarian-Republican Ron Paul vacuumed up 10.7 percent of the overall primary vote, though some of that came after the nomination was settled. That mightbe the size of the electorate, but it also likely answers another question: Who can count on that support. Here's a hint: His last name rhymes with \"Paul\" ... in the sense that it is \"Paul.\" <\/p>\n
As for the other four, we can't talk about them without pointing out that our analogy has a rather large flaw. We develop these lanes as a rhetorical device, but the lines between the lanes are not clear. A certain percentage of the party identifies as a supporter of the Tea Party and is also evangelical. It is likely also Very Conservative. Where does that support lie? With that in mind, let's do our best to draw lines as clearly as possible. <\/p>\n
Tea Party. Since its emergence in 2010, the number of Americans that identify with the Tea Party has slipped downward, according to Gallup. But it's still robust within the Republican Party. In the 2012 primaries, Tea Party supporters averaged about 61 percent of the electorate in key states according to exit polls. In a poll from Quinnipiac University earlier this month, Tea Party supporters comprised a smaller part of the electorate, at 22 percent. <\/p>\n
(A note on the polling: Pollsters often weight polls according to turnout expectations, making this figure less reliable. Polls don't always get that right; actual turnout can vary from expectations, making the 2012 exits more reliable. We're including the one from Quinnipiac because it gauges current support.) <\/p>\n
Evangelicals. We looked at this on Monday in the wake of Cruz's announcement. Voters calling themselves Evangelical have been about 25 percent of the general electorate consistently since 2004 in exit polls. In key 2012 Republican primaries, the figure was higher, at nearly 50 percent. Among Quinnipiac respondents, the number was 38 percent. <\/p>\n
Moderate\/Establishment. In 2012 primary states, 33 percent of the Republican electorate called itself moderate or liberal. Among Quinnipiac respondents, moderate\/liberal Republicans were 34 percent of respondents. <\/p>\n
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Read the original here: <\/p>\n
The Fix: The 2016 GOP presidential race, broken down into 5 lanes<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Ted Cruz, we argued in February, is the most underrated candidate in the 2016 field -- for the simple reason that he can make a strong play for solo ownership of theTea Party \"lane\" of the primary electorate. Continue reading