In Practical Artificial Intelligence Is Already Changing the World, I promised to write a follow-on article that discussed why Kevin Kelly (@kevin2kelly), the founding executive editor of Wired magazine, and Irving Wladawsky-Berger, a former IBM employee and strategic advisor to Citigroup, are optimistic about the future of artificial intelligence (AI). In that article I noted that some pundits believe that AI poses a grave threat to humanity while other pundits believe that AI systems are going to be tools that humans can use to improve conditions around them. I also wrote that it would be foolish to predict which school of thought is correct this early in the game. <\/p>\n
In the near-term, however, I predicted that those who believe that AI systems are tools to be used by humans are going to be proven correct. Irving Wladawsky-Berger is firmly in that camp and he believes that Kevin Kelly is as well. What should we expect from this new generation of AI machines and applications? asks Wladawsky-Berger. Are they basically the next generation of sophisticated tools enhancing our human capabilities, as was previously the case with electricity, cars, airplanes, computers and the Internet? Or are they radically different from our previous tools because they embody something as fundamentally human as intelligence? Kevin Kelly as am I is firmly in the AI-as-a-tool camp. [The Future of AI: An Ubiquitous, Invisible, Smart Utility, The Wall Street Journal, 21 November 2014]M <\/p>\n
Wladawsky-Berger bases his conclusion about Kevin Kellys beliefs about artificial intelligence (AI) from what Kelly wrote in an article in Wired Magazine. [The Three Breakthroughs That Have Finally Unleashed AI on the World, Wired, 27 October 2014] In that article, Kelly writes about IBMs Watson system and how it is transforming as it learns and about all of the good things that cognitive computing systems can do now and will do in the future. He continues: <\/p>\n
Amid all this activity, a picture of our AI future is coming into view, and it is not the HAL 9000 a discrete machine animated by a charismatic (yet potentially homicidal) humanlike consciousness or a Singularitan rapture of superintelligence. The AI on the horizon looks more like Amazon Web Services cheap, reliable, industrial-grade digital smartness running behind everything, and almost invisible except when it blinks off. This common utility will serve you as much IQ as you want but no more than you need. Like all utilities, AI will be supremely boring, even as it transforms the Internet, the global economy, and civilization. It will enliven inert objects, much as electricity did more than a century ago. Everything that we formerly electrified we will now cognitize. This new utilitarian AI will also augment us individually as people (deepening our memory, speeding our recognition) and collectively as a species. There is almost nothing we can think of that cannot be made new, different, or interesting by infusing it with some extra IQ. In fact, the business plans of the next 10,000 startups are easy to forecast: Take X and add AI. This is a big deal, and now its here. <\/p>\n
[ Related on Insights: Google and Elon Musk to Decide What Is Good for Humanity ] <\/p>\n
Unlike the dire warnings that have filled news outlets over the past year, Kellys view of the future of AI is not only optimistic its almost joyous. Wladawsky-Berger and Kelly are not alone in their optimism about AIs future. Timothy B. Lee (), senior editor at @voxdotcom, also believes that the up side of artificial intelligence will far outweigh the risks of developing it further. [Will artificial intelligence destroy humanity? Here are 5 reasons not to worry. Vox, 15 January 2015] Lee believes the naysayers overestimate the likelihood that well have computers as smart as human beings and exaggerate the danger that such computers would pose to the human race. In reality, the development of intelligent machines is likely to be a slow and gradual process, and computers with superhuman intelligence, if they ever exist, will need us at least as much as we need them. Even though Kelly is optimistic about the future of AI, he doesnt dismiss the cautions being raised about how its developed. He writes, As AIs develop, we might have to engineer ways to prevent consciousness in them our most premium AI services will be advertised as consciousness-free. Kellys big concern about AIs future is who will control the systems we use. He explains: <\/p>\n
Cloud-based AI will become an increasingly ingrained part of our everyday life. But it will come at a price. Cloud computing obeys the law of increasing returns, sometimes called the network effect, which holds that the value of a network increases much faster as it grows bigger. The bigger the network, the more attractive it is to new users, which makes it even bigger, and thus more attractive, and so on. A cloud that serves AI will obey the same law. The more people who use an AI, the smarter it gets. The smarter it gets, the more people use it. The more people that use it, the smarter it gets. Once a company enters this virtuous cycle, it tends to grow so big, so fast, that it overwhelms any upstart competitors. As a result, our AI future is likely to be ruled by an oligarchy of two or three large, general-purpose cloud-based commercial intelligences. <\/p>\n
That concern aside, Kelly believes that AI will help make humans smarter and more effective. He notes, for example, that AI chess programs have helped make human chess players much better. He adds, If AI can help humans become better chess players, it stands to reason that it can help us become better pilots, better doctors, better judges, better teachers. In other words, Kelly sees AI as tool that can help mankind get better not a threat that is going to destroy mankind. He continues: <\/p>\n
Most of the commercial work completed by AI will be done by special-purpose, narrowly focused software brains that can, for example, translate any language into any other language, but do little else. Drive a car, but not converse. Or recall every pixel of every video on YouTube but not anticipate your work routines. In the next 10 years, 99 percent of the artificial intelligence that you will interact with, directly or indirectly, will be nerdily autistic, supersmart specialists. In fact, this wont really be intelligence, at least not as weve come to think of it. Indeed, intelligence may be a liability especially if by intelligence we mean our peculiar self-awareness, all our frantic loops of introspection and messy currents of self-consciousness. <\/p>\n
I agree that with that assessment. Derrick Harris (), a senior writer at Gigaom, asserts that the fact of the matter is that artificial intelligence (at least the narrow kind) is here, is real, and is getting better. [Artificial intelligence is real now and its just getting started, Gigaom, 9 January 2015] He explains: <\/p>\n
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The Upside of Artificial Intelligence Development<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" In Practical Artificial Intelligence Is Already Changing the World, I promised to write a follow-on article that discussed why Kevin Kelly (@kevin2kelly), the founding executive editor of Wired magazine, and Irving Wladawsky-Berger, a former IBM employee and strategic advisor to Citigroup, are optimistic about the future of artificial intelligence (AI). In that article I noted that some pundits believe that AI poses a grave threat to humanity while other pundits believe that AI systems are going to be tools that humans can use to improve conditions around them. Continue reading