Establishing an international long-term sustainable lunar presence in partnership with the private sector remains the core focus in space exploration
For more than 50 years, our desire to explore space has led to new discoveries while providing a continuous stream of socioeconomic benefits here on Earth. Space exploration, moreover, has increasingly cemented itself as a field of high strategic importance for governments around the globe.
Fueled by these multiple factors, global government investment in space exploration has grown in the past decade driven by programs in leading countries and joined by an increasing number of actors. According to Euroconsults latest research, Prospects for Space Exploration 2nd Edition, global government investment in space exploration totaled nearly $20 billion in 2019, increasing at a 5% compound annual growth rate over the past five years. Thirty-one countries and space agencies lead this global investment with the United States accounting for 71% of it.
The strategic and geopolitical value of the Earths natural satellite plays an important role behind the rationale of heading back to the moon, and it is considered as a central piece toward future crewed Mars missions. Moreover, space agencies share the objective of creating a sustainable lunar market environment, with cost-sharing, risk-sharing, and partnering as key goals for this new wave of lunar exploration.
Leading space agencies also agree on the importance of maintaining a sustained presence in low Earth orbit. The International Space Station remains the worlds largest international cooperation program to date and the cornerstone for human spaceflight. Funding for the station is secured by all partners until at least 2024 and support has grown for extending operations to 2028 or 2030 in cooperation with the private sector. NASAs future vision for LEO includes a sustainable U.S.-led commercial human spaceflight marketplace. China, in the meantime, has ramped up investments to ensure the launch and completion of its LEO space station in the coming years. Meanwhile, astronomy and planetary missions to Mars and other destinations will continue expanding our scientific knowledge and technical capabilities.
To achieve these goals, global government investment for space exploration is forecast to increase to $30 billion by 2029. This forecast funding growth of about 50% over the coming decade reflects government support of large-scale, ambitious plans, which have started to materialize with the moon as a core focus.
Space exploration is not only attracting the interest of an increasing number of governments but also the private sector. From startups to large companies, players are seeking to exploit the commercial potential of space as human and robotic presence expands beyond Earth. The next decade promises numerous commercial exploration initiatives, significantly impacting the strategic planning of governments and their agenda for space exploration. New public-private contractual schemes are taking shape, reflecting the willingness from space agencies to act as both a strategic partner and a potential future customer of commercial services to achieve a sustainable model for space exploration. However, while enthusiasm for space exploration and the moon in particular is real, numerous missions remain uncertain due to a great number of external risk factors accentuated by the current global context.
The unprecedented context created by the COVID-19 pandemic is causing repercussions of varying degrees throughout the global economy. The precise impact of the current health and economic crisis are, as of today, still difficult to predict with exactitude. The space sector has already experienced the direct effects of the lockdown caused by the pandemic: Space missions operated by employees at home, science missions on standby, launches postponed, and manufacturing plans on hold are some of the examples that have challenged the daily activities of the space sector during the past months. However, as the world slowly returns to normal operations, it is expected that space activities will do so as well. We are experiencing, for instance, the excitement of NASAs Commercial Crew Program, including the first crewed launch to the International Space Station from the United States since 2011. This summer will also see the launch of notable planetary exploration missions if all proceeds as planned such as NASAs Mars 2020 Perseverance Rover and the United Arab Emirates Mars HOPE orbiter.
Nonetheless, the space sector is not immune to the global international context and will experience the ripple effect of the economic fallout. It remains uncertain how readjustments in investments or new allocations will fully develop, as countries around the world might experience higher pressure created by the current turmoil. The impact of the pandemic is anticipated to vary greatly among countries and space verticals. Space exploration activities are long-term in nature and often experience inherent delays. While the current crisis may accentuate further potential delays, it is unlikely to disrupt governments long-term objectives. Space exploration stands high on the space agenda of leading government space programs due to its ties with national strategic interests. Recent announcements such as NASAs contracts awarded to American companies for the development of the lunar human landing system are some of the examples that reaffirm governments ambitions in exploration despite current events. These milestones, nonetheless, are the result of the strategic planning and budget allocations that space agencies made over the past months.
The outlook for space exploration will also be largely influenced by the steps taken by the U.S. in the coming months, as the country remains to date the largest investor and a major driving force in defining the global strategy in space exploration. While the American moon-to-Mars exploration campaign has gained increased bipartisan support, the potential implications that a change of administration during the upcoming elections could have in exploration objectives remain debatable. Space exploration remains deeply tied to American politics as every new administration defines new objectives. The fact that lunar exploration has consolidated as a key strategic asset for many governments around the world, including China, might be a key factor for the U.S. to maintain a moon focus in its exploration strategy independent of a potential political change. However, even if the lunar objective prevails in the United States, questions would arise on the potential delays in programs (such as its moon 2024 objective or the lunar Gateway program), which could also be further stressed due to the economic downturn caused by the pandemic. A deferment of exploration projects could have a negative effect on the current momentum of exploration initiatives, with detrimental effects to international and private partners.
Within the private sector, the increase in private investment in the past decade has facilitated the emergence of new commercial exploration initiatives. Despite this increase, the total private funding in space exploration continues to be, to date, moderate and with investments concentrated only on a rather limited number of actors. Investors remain more reluctant to fund space exploration initiatives due to the inherent high risks and long-term vision of this field, a reluctance which may be further exacerbated by the current global context. The pandemic crisis might additionally accelerate preexisting fragile conditions of startups, challenging their survival. Support from the governments as a customer and a partner will continue to be (even more) critical to the success of commercial initiatives.
Despite the current global scene and the many challenges associated with it, the coming decade may well present opportunities for many. Global leading actors are expected to reinforce their position, while new entrants might face higher difficulties to enter an increasingly competitive field. International collaboration and public-private cooperation are expected to continue consolidating as an essential requisite in the public stakeholders exploration strategy and road map to achieve a sustainable model for space exploration moving forward.
Natalia Larrea is a principal advisor at Euroconsult and chief editor of the Prospects for Space Exploration research.
This article originally appeared in the June 15, 2020 issue of SpaceNews magazine.
Read the original post:
- Space | National Archives - January 5th, 2017 [January 5th, 2017]
- 50 Years of Presidential Visions for Space Exploration - January 30th, 2017 [January 30th, 2017]
- New 'Life' Trailer Brings Terrifying Thrills from Mars (Exclusive) - Space.com - February 7th, 2017 [February 7th, 2017]
- Obama gutted NASA. Here are 3 ways Trump can make space ... - Conservative Review - February 7th, 2017 [February 7th, 2017]
- Dassault Systemes sets eyes on space exploration, faster transport - Economic Times - February 7th, 2017 [February 7th, 2017]
- Cassini Captures Stunning View of Enceladus | Space Exploration ... - Sci-News.com - February 7th, 2017 [February 7th, 2017]
- Space Exploration: Astronauts' Brains Are Changed By Spaceflight, MRI-Based Study Reveals - International Business Times - February 7th, 2017 [February 7th, 2017]
- TeamIndus launches Moonshot Wheels to inspire Indian rural students about Space Exploration - International Business Times, India Edition - February 7th, 2017 [February 7th, 2017]
- Belarus invites Iran to cooperate in pharmaceutical industry, space exploration - Belarus News (BelTA) - February 8th, 2017 [February 8th, 2017]
- Cabinet briefed on India-Vietnam Framework Agreement on outer space exploration - Daily News & Analysis - February 9th, 2017 [February 9th, 2017]
- Legislation Would Require Strategic Plan for NASA Human Spaceflight - Space.com - February 9th, 2017 [February 9th, 2017]
- Trump's Vision of Space Exploration - The New American - February 10th, 2017 [February 10th, 2017]
- New NASA Leadership Inherits Rejuvenated Space Exploration Program - eNews Park Forest - February 10th, 2017 [February 10th, 2017]
- Outgoing NASA Team Leaves Its Successors With Robust Options for Space Exploration - Center For American Progress - February 11th, 2017 [February 11th, 2017]
- Space exploration brought to life for pupils - Norfolk Eastern Daily Press - February 11th, 2017 [February 11th, 2017]
- Mechs and greater space exploration are on the way in Starbound's ... - PCGamesN - February 12th, 2017 [February 12th, 2017]
- As US, Russia eye stagnant space budgets, India ramps up investment - Ars Technica - February 13th, 2017 [February 13th, 2017]
- Nuclear Reactors to Power Space Exploration - R & D Magazine - February 14th, 2017 [February 14th, 2017]
- NASA spends $2mn on 'advanced life support tech' for deep space travel - RT - February 15th, 2017 [February 15th, 2017]
- Space Exploration: Could A Habitable Planet Feature A Habitable Moon? - Forbes - February 16th, 2017 [February 16th, 2017]
- Turkmenistan Aims High as It Pledges Space Exploration - EurasiaNet - February 17th, 2017 [February 17th, 2017]
- Republicans Aim to Prioritize NASA Space Exploration Efforts Over Environmental Research - Independent Journal Review - February 18th, 2017 [February 18th, 2017]
- One huge step: Trump's plans to privatize 'low Earth orbit' and send NASA into deep space - Yahoo News - February 18th, 2017 [February 18th, 2017]
- How reusable rockets are paving the way for the next phase of space exploration - Mirror.co.uk - February 20th, 2017 [February 20th, 2017]
- NASA Funds 2 New Research Institutes to Help Humanity Explore Deep Space - Space.com - February 21st, 2017 [February 21st, 2017]
- Space Startups Are Booming in the Mojave Desert - Fortune - February 21st, 2017 [February 21st, 2017]
- Sen. Nelson Talks Space Exploration At Florida A&M University ... - WFSU - February 22nd, 2017 [February 22nd, 2017]
- DELINGPOLE: NASA to Stop Shilling for Big Green, Restart Exploring Space - Breitbart News - February 23rd, 2017 [February 23rd, 2017]
- Nuclear reactors to power space exploration - Los Alamos Monitor - February 23rd, 2017 [February 23rd, 2017]
- Space exploration programs must continue - The Eagle - February 23rd, 2017 [February 23rd, 2017]
- Editorial: Exploration can help us understand this planet - Loveland Reporter-Herald - February 24th, 2017 [February 24th, 2017]
- NASA selects new technologies for flight tests for future space exploration - Space Daily - February 24th, 2017 [February 24th, 2017]
- Why Does NASA Suddenly Want Humans On New Spacecraft's First Flight? - Vocativ - February 24th, 2017 [February 24th, 2017]
- NASA seeks university-level solutions for deep space human exploration challenges - Pulse Headlines - February 24th, 2017 [February 24th, 2017]
- Should Humans Leave Space Exploration To Robots? - Forbes - February 24th, 2017 [February 24th, 2017]
- Space Exploration - WGN Radio - February 25th, 2017 [February 25th, 2017]
- EDITORIAL: Jumping at space travel - Indiana Daily Student - February 27th, 2017 [February 27th, 2017]
- Why the 'ultimate wearables' lie in the future of space exploration - Wareable - February 28th, 2017 [February 28th, 2017]
- How to improve SA's space program - News24 - March 1st, 2017 [March 1st, 2017]
- Darlington power plant helps fuel NASA's space exploration - CTV News - March 1st, 2017 [March 1st, 2017]
- Donald Trump Will Call For a Return of Human Space Exploration - Inverse - March 1st, 2017 [March 1st, 2017]
- What Donald Trump Said About Space Travel During His Speech - Heavy.com - March 2nd, 2017 [March 2nd, 2017]
- Trump's call for human space exploration is hugely wasteful and pointless - Los Angeles Times - March 2nd, 2017 [March 2nd, 2017]
- What is the fascination with space exploration? - Grand Valley Lanthorn - March 2nd, 2017 [March 2nd, 2017]
- Teachers attend space exploration conference, bring back lessons out of this world - Arlington Times - March 4th, 2017 [March 4th, 2017]
- Reader applauds space exploration pioneers - Fairfaxtimes.com - March 4th, 2017 [March 4th, 2017]
- Jeff Bezos Expected to Unveil Further Plans for Private Space Exploration - Wall Street Journal (subscription) - March 6th, 2017 [March 6th, 2017]
- Your Cheat-Sheet Guide to the New Space Race - Slate Magazine - March 7th, 2017 [March 7th, 2017]
- Amazon chief to announce new space exploration plans - RT - March 7th, 2017 [March 7th, 2017]
- Amazon Chief Bezos Expected to Unveil Further Private Space Exploration Plans - Fox Business - March 7th, 2017 [March 7th, 2017]
- If India or China Beats the US to Mars, It Will Feel Like a Military Defeat - Slate Magazine - March 8th, 2017 [March 8th, 2017]
- When We Explore Space, We Go Together - Slate Magazine - March 8th, 2017 [March 8th, 2017]
- How Barack Obama ruined NASA space exploration - The Hill (blog) - March 9th, 2017 [March 9th, 2017]
- Future Tense Newsletter: Space Exploration Isn't Just About Scientific Discovery - Slate Magazine (blog) - March 9th, 2017 [March 9th, 2017]
- NASA Funds 133 Projects to Aid Deep Space Exploration - PC Magazine - March 9th, 2017 [March 9th, 2017]
- A Trinity professor will play a big role in space exploration - thejournal.ie - March 11th, 2017 [March 11th, 2017]
- Congress Passes Space Exploration Act, Targets Mars - America Now - March 11th, 2017 [March 11th, 2017]
- Russia Aims to Develop New Cooperation in Space Exploration - Sputnik International - April 8th, 2017 [April 8th, 2017]
- NASA Announces 2017 'Chroniclers,' Recognizing Those Who ... - SpaceCoastDaily.com - April 8th, 2017 [April 8th, 2017]
- The Pros And Cons Of Privatizing Space Exploration - Forbes - April 8th, 2017 [April 8th, 2017]
- Space Exploration Experts Look to Next Frontiers at Event - UMass Lowell - April 8th, 2017 [April 8th, 2017]
- CNSA boss outlines China's space exploration agenda - SpaceNews - SpaceNews - April 8th, 2017 [April 8th, 2017]
- These Are the Wildly Advanced Space Exploration Concepts Being ... - Gizmodo - April 8th, 2017 [April 8th, 2017]
- Cyprus Space Exploration Organisation - Wikipedia - April 8th, 2017 [April 8th, 2017]
- A Brief History of Space Exploration - The Aerospace Corporation - April 8th, 2017 [April 8th, 2017]
- Americans Like Spending Money on Space Exploration, Survey Finds - Inverse - June 6th, 2017 [June 6th, 2017]
- Launch of India's biggest rocket is a defining moment in space exploration - DailyO - June 6th, 2017 [June 6th, 2017]
- Space Matter: The Trouble with Spacesuits :: Science :: Features ... - Paste Magazine - June 6th, 2017 [June 6th, 2017]
- China willing to cooperate in peaceful space exploration: Xi - Space Daily - June 6th, 2017 [June 6th, 2017]
- Pence reiterates plans to reestablish the National Space Council - SpaceNews - June 7th, 2017 [June 7th, 2017]
- Space Exploration: Can Private Companies Operate in Space? - Law Street Media (blog) - June 7th, 2017 [June 7th, 2017]
- Space Exploration Game 'Outreach' Receives First Gameplay Trailer ... - Hardcore Gamer - June 7th, 2017 [June 7th, 2017]
- Will Space Exploration lead us to a Global Space Agency - Space Daily - June 7th, 2017 [June 7th, 2017]
- The Origami of Space Exploration - Scientific American (blog) - June 7th, 2017 [June 7th, 2017]
- Ocean vs Space: Exploration and the Quest to Inspire the Public - Marine Technology News - June 8th, 2017 [June 8th, 2017]
- A 3D-printed rocket engine just launched a new era of space exploration - The Independent - June 8th, 2017 [June 8th, 2017]
- Belarus' drive for peaceful space exploration underlined - Belarus News (BelTA) - June 8th, 2017 [June 8th, 2017]
- Here's why you should pay close attention to India's space program - Mashable - June 9th, 2017 [June 9th, 2017]
- China to provide more opportunities to private companies for space exploration - Space Daily - June 9th, 2017 [June 9th, 2017]
- Space exploration: The solutions to land scarcity - Real Estate Weekly - June 10th, 2017 [June 10th, 2017]