On the pernicious de-radicalization of the radical future

Over the past several years a good number of “futurists” and all-out naysayers have systematically worked to undermine and dismiss the potential for radical change to occur in the not-too-distant future. While I’ve always been more a fan of concepts than time-lines, there is little doubt in my mind that a number of disruptive technologies that have been predicted in the past few decades will eventually come to fruition.

But it’s suddenly become very fashionable to poo-poo or sweep-aside the pending impacts of such things as the looming robotics and manufacturing revolutions, the rise of super artificial intelligence, or the migration of humans to a postbiological form. My best guesses as to why include the arrogance of the now (i.e. “we currently live at the most special of times and things will never change too significantly”), distraction (i.e. “there are other more important issues that require our attention”), fear, denial, weak imaginations, and just plain ignorance.

Here’s a quick overview of what’s coming down the pipe—developments that will forever alter what we currently think of as normalcy and the human condition:

  • Artificial superintelligence: Recursively self-improving endowed with significantly , capacity, and reach; the end of human primacy on the planet; an and .
  • Molecular nanotechnology: Manufacturing and materials construction at the molecular scale; the complete re-thinking of engineering and manufacturing; the rise of (i.e. “replicators” or “fabricators”) and the ; the advent of ; the threat and promise of ; and a serious existential risk.
  • Robotics revolution:  and ; the grim potential for /terrorism and the rise of ; the unpredictable impacts of the convergence of robotics with artificial intelligence; robots that can self-replicate, swarm, assemble, create emergent effects, self-organize, and repair; a potential existential risk. 
  • The ongoing biotechnological revolution:  (i.e. cyborgs, genetically altered humans, postbiological beings), ; ; advanced psychopharmaceuticals; the ongoing diminishment of corporeal importance (including possible ) and extended personhood;  and .
  • The ongoing communications revolution: / (where human minds are interlinked with our communications technology and the internet).
  • The political and sociological impacts of these disruptive technologies: The demise of privacy and the rise of the surveillance state; . 
  • Megascale engineering: Assuming humanity will survive this far: The graduation of humanity to through the advent of such things as the ,  and ; the onset of , remedial ecology and the reworking of Earth’s entire ecosystem (including ); the permanent retiring of Darwinian processes on the planet. 
So, just keep on thinking that the future is going to be more of the same.


(1) expert systems
URL: http://www.sentientdevelopments.com/2011/06/hear-that-its-singularity-coming.html

(2) greater-than-human intelligence
URL: http://www.nickbostrom.com/superintelligence.html

(3) extinction
URL: http://www.nickbostrom.com/existential/risks.html

(4) risk
URL: http://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/Paperclip_maximizer

(5) potential existential paradigm changer
URL: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Friendly_artificial_intelligence

(6) molecular assemblers
URL: http://www.molecularassembler.com/

(7) end of scarcity
URL: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Post_scarcity

(8) molecular-scale robotics
URL: http://www-lmr.usc.edu/~lmr/publications/nanorobotics/

(9) self-replication
URL: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-replicating_machine

(10) Hyper-automation
URL: http://www.nature.com/scientificamerican/journal/v18/n1/full/scientificamerican0208-12sp.html

(11) massive unemployment
URL: http://www.wired.com/techbiz/media/news/2003/08/59882

(12) robotic warfare
URL: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Military_robot

(13) machine ethics
URL: http://moralmachines.blogspot.com/

(14) Enhanced and modified humans
URL: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transhumanism

(15) indefinite lifespans
URL: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indefinite_lifespan

(16) regenerative medicine
URL: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Regenerative_medicine

(17) mind transfers
URL: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uploaded_consciousness

(18) transgenics
URL: http://users.rcn.com/jkimball.ma.ultranet/BiologyPages/T/TransgenicAnimals.html

(19) animal enhancement
URL: http://www.sentientdevelopments.com/2011/07/ethics-of-animal-enhancement.html

(20) Noosphere
URL: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Noosphere

(21) global brain
URL: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_brain

(22) the further diminishment of civil liberties and the onset of neo-authoritarianism
URL: http://www.sentientdevelopments.com/2008/12/future-risks-and-challenge-to-democracy.html

(23) Kardashev I and Kardashev II civilizations
URL: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kardashev_scale

(24) Dyson Sphere
URL: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dyson_sphere

(25) Jupiter Brain
URL: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jupiter_brain#Jupiter_brain

(26) Matrioshka Brain
URL: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Matrioshka_brain

(27) technogainism
URL: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technogaianism

(28) weather control
URL: http://www.sentientdevelopments.com/2010/09/toth-fejel-politics-and-ethics-of.html

(29)
URL: http://feedads.g.doubleclick.net/~a/CnRsejzHmnMm0DYPfbtyv74EooI/0/da

(30)
URL: http://feedads.g.doubleclick.net/~a/CnRsejzHmnMm0DYPfbtyv74EooI/1/da

(31)
URL: http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/SentientDevelopments?a=FNSohDbh8sE:jJPGUkP_gKE:I9og5sOYxJI

(32)
URL: http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/SentientDevelopments?a=FNSohDbh8sE:jJPGUkP_gKE:qj6IDK7rITs

(33)
URL: http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/SentientDevelopments?a=FNSohDbh8sE:jJPGUkP_gKE:yIl2AUoC8zA

(34)
URL: http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/SentientDevelopments?a=FNSohDbh8sE:jJPGUkP_gKE:V_sGLiPBpWU

(35)
URL: http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/SentientDevelopments?a=FNSohDbh8sE:jJPGUkP_gKE:cGdyc7Q-1BI

(36)
URL: http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/SentientDevelopments?a=FNSohDbh8sE:jJPGUkP_gKE:F7zBnMyn0Lo

(37)
URL: http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/SentientDevelopments?a=FNSohDbh8sE:jJPGUkP_gKE:gIN9vFwOqvQ


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