GPT-5 might arrive this summer as a materially better update to ChatGPT – Ars Technica

When OpenAI launched its GPT-4 AI model a year ago, it created a wave of immense hype and existential panic from its ability to imitate human communication and composition. Since then, the biggest question in AI has remained the same: When is GPT-5 coming out? During interviews and media appearances around the world, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman frequently gets asked this question, and he usually gives a coy or evasive answer, sometimes coupled with promises of amazing things to come.

According to a new report from Business Insider, OpenAI is expected to release GPT-5, an improved version of the AI language model that powers ChatGPT, sometime in mid-2024and likely during the summer. Two anonymous sources familiar with the company have revealed that some enterprise customers have recently received demos of GPT-5 and related enhancements to ChatGPT.

One CEO who recently saw a version of GPT-5 described it as "really good" and "materially better," with OpenAI demonstrating the new model using use cases and data unique to his company. The CEO also hinted at other unreleased capabilities of the model, such as the ability to launch AI agents being developed by OpenAI to perform tasks automatically.

We asked OpenAI representatives about GPT-5's release date and the Business Insider report. They responded that they had no particular comment, but they included a snippet of a transcript from Altman's recent appearance on the Lex Fridman podcast.

Lex Fridman(01:06:13) So when is GPT-5 coming out again? Sam Altman(01:06:15) I dont know. Thats the honest answer. Lex Fridman(01:06:18) Oh, thats the honest answer. Blink twice if its this year. Sam Altman(01:06:30) We will release an amazing new model this year. I dont know what well call it. Lex Fridman(01:06:36) So that goes to the question of, whats the way we release this thing? Sam Altman(01:06:41) Well release in the coming months many different things. I think thatd be very cool. I think before we talk about a GPT-5-like model called that, or not called that, or a little bit worse or a little bit better than what youd expect from a GPT-5, I think we have a lot of other important things to release first.

In this conversation, Altman seems to imply that the company is prepared to launch a major AI model this year, but whether it will be called "GPT-5" or be considered a major upgrade to GPT-4 Turbo (or perhaps an incremental update like GPT-4.5) is up in the air.

Like its predecessor, GPT-5 (or whatever it will be called) is expected to be a multimodal large language model (LLM) that can accept text or encoded visual input (called a "prompt"). And like GPT-4, GPT-5 will be a next-token prediction model, which means that it will output its best estimate of the most likely next token (a fragment of a word) in a sequence, which allows for tasks such as completing a sentence or writing code. When configured in a specific way, GPT models can power conversational chatbot applications like ChatGPT.

OpenAI launched GPT-4 in March 2023 as an upgrade to its most major predecessor, GPT-3, which emerged in 2020 (with GPT-3.5 arriving in late 2022). Last November, OpenAI released GPT-4 Turbo, which lowered inference (running) costs of OpenAI's best AI model dramatically but has been plagued with accusations of "laziness" where the model sometimes refuses to answer prompts or complete coding projects as requested. OpenAI has attempted to fix the laziness issue several times.

LLMs like those developed by OpenAI are trained on massive datasets scraped from the Internet and licensed from media companies, enabling them to respond to user prompts in a human-like manner. However, the quality of the information provided by the model can vary depending on the training data used, and also based on the model's tendency to confabulate information. If GPT-5 can improve generalization (its ability to perform novel tasks) while also reducing what are commonly called "hallucinations" in the industry, it will likely represent a notable advancement for the firm.

According to the report, OpenAI is still training GPT-5, and after that is complete, the model will undergo internal safety testing and further "red teaming" to identify and address any issues before its public release. The release date could be delayed depending on the duration of the safety testing process.

Of course, the sources in the report could be mistaken, and GPT-5 could launch later for reasons aside from testing. So, consider this a strong rumor, but this is the first time we've seen a potential release date for GPT-5 from a reputable source. Also, we now know that GPT-5 is reportedly complete enough to undergo testing, which means its major training run is likely complete. Further refinements will likely follow.

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GPT-5 might arrive this summer as a materially better update to ChatGPT - Ars Technica

Steward Health Care news: ER near Boston put patients in jeopardy – The Boston Globe

Two weeks after the patients death on Sept. 13, state health inspectors arrived at the hospital, owned by for-profit Steward Health Care, to investigate. During their review of patient records, they found an emergency department with recurring staffing problems that at times seemed to be in near-meltdown.

Extremely sick patients had no assigned nurses, including one patient who was previously found unresponsive in a hallway. In another instance, an overworked nurse who was extremely busy and was behind, trying to catch up left a patient who had been vomiting in the waiting room for more than 10 hours. A friend discovered the patient barely conscious; the person was intubated and admitted to the intensive care unit, according to a state inspection report. It is unclear from the report if those patients survived, and hospital officials declined to provide that information.

State and federal officials declared the safety lapses put patients in immediate jeopardy, a severe sanction that required Good Samaritan to develop a plan within 23 days to fix its emergency department or risk losing its Medicare funding. Good Samaritan executives said they addressed the problems immediately, including bringing in more staff.

The hazards in the hospitals emergency department should not have been a surprise to state and federal regulators. Inspectors for the Massachusetts Department of Public Health had found serious patient safety violations in Good Samaritans emergency department three other times since 2021, documents obtained by the Globe show. After each inspection, investigators required the hospital to produce an improvement plan, but their visits resulted in little lasting change.

It wasnt until Jan. 31, when the seriousness of the financial crisis engulfing the company had become public, that the health department began sending daily monitors to Good Samaritan and other Steward hospitals, raising concerns about why the state didnt do more sooner.

While emergency departments are under strain across Massachusetts and the country, staff at Good Samaritan have been especially overwhelmed as they try to treat thousands of additional patients after two nearby hospitals shut their doors. At the same time, nurses have told state inspectors that private equity-backed Steward has neglected to hire enough staff and buy enough supplies.

The Massachusetts Nurses Association, the union that represents nurses at the hospital, warned state and federal health officials in 2021 and 2022 about the deterioration of the emergency department. Among the problems they cited: the potentially avoidable deaths of two patients, patients without nurses, patients being left in the waiting room for hours without being reevaluated, and managements failure to follow through on its promises, according to a letter and a memo obtained by the Globe.

Last March, emergency room nurses spoke directly to Governor Maura Healey, Lieutenant Governor Kim Driscoll, and Secretary of Health and Human Services Kate Walsh about their concerns when Massachusetts officials visited Good Samaritan after a fire shut down nearby Brockton Hospital.

In September, on the day the patient died while in the registration line, 19 nurses were supposed to be on duty, according to an internal staffing report. There were eight.

Dr. Robbie Goldstein, commissioner of the state Department of Public Health, said the patients death was a tragic event and for all us it really gave us significant pause. But he said inspectors have provided close oversight of the Good Samaritan emergency department since 2021; the department thoroughly investigated every complaint, required an improvement plan, and revisited the hospital once after each plan was submitted to ensure its implementation, he told the Globe.

He acknowledged the department did not send in regular monitors until two weeks ago, but said that step has traditionally been taken only during nursing strikes.

Do I think that we will change the way that we provide oversight, evaluate facilities, and intervene at times of financial distress? Absolutely. That story is being written right now, Goldstein said.

He said he recognizes the situation at Good Samaritan and other Steward hospitals is hard for patients and Steward staff. We are working 24/7 with Steward and with the rest of health care to make sure that we can address the challenges that people are facing, he added.

The inspections of Good Samaritan were conducted by state officials on behalf of the US Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, which issues reports called statements of deficiencies when it finds problems. Those reports include descriptions of incidents but not patients names or other identifying details.

In a statement emailed to the Globe, Good Samaritan president Matt Hesketh said that after the immediate jeopardy findings on Sept. 26 and 28, the hospital immediately hired technicians to help assess the vital signs of patients in the waiting room, and deployed nurse practitioners and physician assistants to help triage walk-in patients steps that were part of the improvement plan. The hospital also is offering $40,000 signing bonuses to nurses hired to work in the emergency department.

Inspectors from the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services recently visited the hospital and we remain in full compliance with all guidelines and protocols, Hesketh said.

We have faced unprecedented challenges over the past few years, however, the safety of our patients and providing excellent, compassionate care is our focus day in and day out, he added.

Goldstein, however, said that monitors stationed at Good Samaritan and other Steward hospitals have received additional complaints about patient care, and that the department is investigating the allegations. He did not describe the nature of them.

Experts in emergency medicine and patient safety consulted by the Globe could not assess whether the issues at Good Samaritan were more severe than elsewhere.

Theres a lot of bad things there, said Dr. Joseph C. Tennyson, president of the Massachusetts College of Emergency Physicians, an advocacy group for doctors, after being told of the reports. But he added, Bad things like this are happening everywhere right now because the capacity doesnt exist.

Just two weeks ago, the state Department of Public Health designated hospitals in Greater Boston and north of the city as Tier 3, meaning they have a high risk of capacity problems throughout their hospitals and need to meet more frequently with health officials and one another to coordinate patient load. Good Samaritan and other hospitals south of Boston have been in Tier 3 for the past year, after Brockton Hospital closed.

Patients have suffered because of delays at other hospitals. A disabled patient became unresponsive in the emergency department waiting room at Cooley Dickinson Hospital in Northampton in November 2022, during a six-hour wait for care. He died several hours later.

The patient, a 74-year-old man, checked in about 8:30 p.m. complaining of a cough and other respiratory symptoms. The triage nurse ordered lab tests and a chest X-ray and sent him to the waiting room, but failed to measure his blood oxygen level, according to a state inspection report. Another nurse told inspectors the triage nurse was running behind and there were too many patients waiting to be triaged. When his guardian the man was disabled, according to a relative told staff he did not look well, they found him unresponsive. Death records show he had the flu and pneumonia, and died of sepsis.

Laura Oggeri, a spokesperson for Mass General Brigham, which owns Cooley Dickinson, said that she could not discuss a specific case due to patient confidentiality rules, but that the hospital now requires mandatory additional medical reassessments for those waiting for care.

While many emergency departments are struggling with severe overcrowding amid a national shortage of nurses, they differ in how effectively they respond, said Barbara Fain, executive director of the Betsy Lehman Center for Patient Safety, a Massachusetts state agency.

We do know that there is wide variability in the safety cultures of different hospitals, and that is really driven by the leadership, she said.

Dr. Zirui Song, associate professor of health care policy and medicine at Harvard Medical School, said the circumstances at Good Samaritan might be attributable to staffing reductions. A study he and others published in December found that after hospitals are acquired by a private equity company, they experience a 25 percent increase in adverse events, such as infections and falls. This is happening even as other hospitals are seeing a decline in such events, he said.

One of the primary hypotheses that we have is that staffing reductions after a private equity acquisition might explain these findings, Song said, and that might apply as well to the emergency department.

Song, an internist at Massachusetts General Hospital, called what happened to patients at Good Samaritan gut-wrenching and heart-breaking and not something he would expect to see at Mass. General, even when the emergency department is extremely busy. Patients with chest pain and shortness of breath are typically worked up fairly rapidly, he said.

So the fact the E.D. is full does not mean that these adverse events . . . are acceptable or expected, he said.

But sometimes they are unavoidable, said Tennyson, the emergency physicians group president. As an emergency department physician, he said, he has seen patients designated ESI 2 the second most severe level of patient illness who have waited 14 hours or longer. Ideally a patient with chest pain would be seen right away and get an electrocardiogram, a recording of the hearts electrical activity that can help diagnose a heart attack, within 10 minutes, said Tennyson, who is chief of emergency medicine at UMass Memorial HealthAlliance-Clinton Hospital.

But its not uncommon for a chest pain patient to have to wait in a busy ER, because there are five or six people or more that are having chest pain, and most of them are not having a heart attack, Tennyson said.

Those situations are painful and demoralizing for the staff, he said.

To see somebody in the waiting room that you absolutely know you need to go see, that you need to get seen right away, and theres no way to do it thats injurious and its contributing to burnout, he said.

Liz Kowalczyk can be reached at lizbeth.kowalczyk@globe.com. Felice J. Freyer can be reached at felice.freyer@globe.com. Follow her @felicejfreyer.

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Steward Health Care news: ER near Boston put patients in jeopardy - The Boston Globe

Ax-3 astronaut snaps dizzying photo of ISS’s jam-packed interior – Space.com

A new view from inside the International Space Station captures a dizzying number of experiments underway in orbit.

European Space Agency (ESA) project astronaut Marcus Wandt recently shared a photo he took while floating in the microgravity environment of the orbiting lab's Destiny module. Destiny is the International Space Station's primary research laboratory and is therefore home to a wide range of experiments and studies.

In the photo, which Wandt shared on X (formerly Twitter) on Jan. 25, the walls of the Destiny module are lined with various pieces of equipment and cords strung about to keep all of the tools tethered. Wandt's legs and feet can also be seen floating in the foreground of the photo due to the weightlessness astronauts experience inside the spacecraft.

Related: International Space Station at 20: A photo tour

The Destiny module has 24 equipment racks, which support various studies related to health, safety and humans' quality of life. The space station offers researchers a unique opportunity to conduct experiments in the absence of gravity, thus allowing them to better understand humans and the world in which we live.

"An astronaut's perspective," Wandt wrote in the X post. "How does this photo make you feel: relaxed, stressed, giddy or wanting to rearrange everything?"

Wandt launched to the space station on Jan. 18 as part of Axiom Space's Mission 3 (Ax-3). Joined by mission specialist Alper Gezeravc of Turkey, commander and former NASA astronaut Michael Lpez-Alegra (who has dual U.S. and Spanish citizenship), and mission pilot and Italian Air Force Col. Walter Villadei, Ax-3 carries Axiom's first all-European crew.

The four Ax-3 astronauts are living and working in orbit for up to two weeks. They are tasked with over 30 experiments spanning various fields in science and technology aimed at propelling advancements in human spaceflight and contributing to enhancing life on Earth.

While some may see Wandt's photo and think the inside of the module appears a bit cluttered without the force of gravity to hold all of the equipment neatly in place, others may feel relaxed by the idea of floating weightless through space. However, despite the apparent disorganization, astronauts are trained to maintain a high standard of cleanliness, to ensure the safety and functionality of the space station.

So, the question remains: How does this photo make you feel?

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Ax-3 astronaut snaps dizzying photo of ISS's jam-packed interior - Space.com

Civil Rights Groups Slam Comments By Elon Musk Claiming Diversity Efforts Make Flying Less Safe – Essence

Elon Musks comments on efforts by United Airlines and Boeing to diversify their workforces have drawn swift criticism from major civil rights organizations.

Musk claimed, without evidence, that the efforts of those airlines to hire nonwhite pilots and factory workers have made air travel less safe.

Marc Morial, president and CEO of the National Urban League, called Musks statements abhorrent and pathetic. Morial pointed out that Tesla, where Musk is CEO, is facing a lawsuit from the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission (EEOC) for alleged abuse of Black employees, including racial slurs and nooses found in the workplace.

Musks company not only refused to investigate complaints or take any steps to end the abuse, it viciously retaliated against employees who complained or opposed the abuse, Morial told NBC News, citing allegations from the suit. The only thing anyone needs to hear from Musk about diversity in the workplace is an apology, he said.

NAACP President and CEO Derrick Johnson responded to Musk on X, stating that the real danger comes from Musks own social media site, accusing it of providing a platform for hate speech and white supremacist conspiracy theories. Johnson emphasized the importance of diversity, equity, and inclusion (commonly referred to as DEI) for cultivating a more inclusive society.

Reminder to @elonmusk: providing a home for the proliferation of hate speech and white supremacist conspiracy theories kills people. Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion cultivate a more inclusive society, Johnsonwrote.

They are not the same. We are not the same, he added.

Musks comments on airline safety came after a panel blew off a Boeing jet while in flight. Musk began discussing the topic on X in response to a user who speculated that the IQ scores of United Airlines pilots from Historically Black Colleges and Universities (HBCUs) were somehow lower than the average IQ of Air Force pilots.

He criticized programs promoting diversity, equity, and inclusion, suggesting that it would take a plane crash with hundreds of casualties to change such policies.

Do you want to fly in an airplane where they prioritized DEI hiring over your safety? That is actually happening, Musk wrote.

Its important to note that commercial aviation is the safest it has ever been, with a record low number of accidents and fatalities in 2023, according to Dutch air-safety groupTo70. However, near-collisions at US airports remain a source of concern,reports NBC News.

According to the news outlet, neither United nor Boeing have commented on Musks claims.

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Civil Rights Groups Slam Comments By Elon Musk Claiming Diversity Efforts Make Flying Less Safe - Essence

General Information About At-Home OTC COVID-19 Diagnostic Tests – FDA.gov

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BioTeke USA, LLC: Bio-Self COVID-19 Antigen Home Test

3EO Health, Inc.: 3EO Health COVID-19 Test

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General Information About At-Home OTC COVID-19 Diagnostic Tests - FDA.gov

HCSO to release body cam footage to plaintiff alleging Fourth Amendment violation – Smoky Mountain News

Monroe A. Miller Jr. petitioned the court on Nov. 22 to obtain the footage. On Dec. 14 following the hearing and his review of the recordings, visiting Superior Court Judge Steve Warren, of Asheville, published his order granting permission, albeit with some noteworthy restrictions.

On Nov. 9 at about 1:25 p.m., two Haywood County Sheriffs deputies visited Millers property along with the plaintiff in an ongoing civil dispute his sister, Linda Overcash as well as her attorney, Mark Melrose. Their civil dispute is over how to split up their late fathers estate. Monroe Albert Miller, who passed away on Jan. 20, 2017, is assumed to have left behind a good deal of money, along with a Haywood County home appraised at over $1 million dollars.

he was co-founder of one of the earliest Computer Companies, Electronic Associates, Inc., a NYSE listed company located in New Jersey, where he designed and manufactured many of the first electronic computers used in industry and the early space program, his obituary reads. In 1955, he founded Milgo Electronic Corporation, a company heavily involved in tracking and communication in the Mercury, Gemini, and Apollo space programs. He and the company were also instrumental in the development of the first, and subsequently, the high speed modem. He served as President and Chairman of the Board until all its NYSE listed stock was acquired in 1977. Milgo's Miami, Florida facility employed more than 2500 and also carried out world- wide manufacturing and marketing operations in many foreign countries.

The group was there to survey the property. Also present on Nov. 9 was Terry Ramey, a Haywood County commissioner and staunch ally of Miller, as well as Millers attorney, Ed Bleynat.

The petition notes that after the visit, on that same day, Miller requested the recordings from Wilke. That communication was entered into evidence as part of the petition.

Deputies appeared indoctrinated by Mark Melrose on the aspects of the order issued, the initial request reads.

Deputies kicked Terry Ramey, Haywood County Commissioner, out of the dwelling also, even though he was acting as my agent, which was allowed in the Order, it later reads.

A Nov. 15 response from Haywood County Sheriffs Office Public Information Officer Gina Zachary notes that because there was no court order mandating the office provide the footage and audio, it could not be turned over at that time. A week later, Miller submitted the petition to the court.

Also included as evidence in the petition is a series of messages between Miller and Wilke from the evening of Nov. 9. In those messages, Miller alleges the deputies violated his rights.

You have made serious, unfounded allegations about my deputies and any further contact will need to be from your legal counsel to ours, Wilke replied. Your multiple public information requests will be handled in as reasonably prompt manner as possible.

Millers chief complaint is that he and Ramey were forced to remain outside while the others had full run of his home. The petition also notes that the order for a law enforcement escort during the survey said that one deputy would be present, but two showed up.

In order to keep the peace and allow a thorough inspection of the property the presence of a uniformed law enforcement officer would be helpful, that order reads.

The order also says that Overcash and Melrose should be allowed adequate space to engage in private conversations during the inspection and that Miller, Ramey and Bleynat shall remain 50 feet or more from the Petitioners and their attorneys while the Petitioners and their attorneys are outside the dwelling during this inspection.

The two deputies violated my Fourth Amendment rights, the petition claims. There was no reason, nor was Mark Melrose authorized, to bring two deputies for this visit. He took a Haywood County Sheriffs Deputy off-line for no good reason, therefore interfereing (sic) with the operation of a law enforcement agency by hindering and obstructing the second law enforcement officer in the performance of his duty.

According to court documents, Miller submitted a complaint against Melrose to the North Carolina Bar Association, something he has done in the past against multiple local attorneys. For his part, in an email to Bleynat, Melrose alleged that Miller behaved inappropriately and without an understanding of proper procedure when he showed up at Melrose's office seeking a signature for the receipt of a $5,000 check he was ordered by a judge to provide to cover administrative costs related to the dispute over the estate.

Your client just came to my office trying to get my staff to sign a document indicating receipt of a check, the email reads. I did not speak with him. He was instructed by my staff to call your office. Please advise Mr. Miller to never come to my office again, and advise him that I am not legally permitted to talk to him nor is my staff.

In court on Dec. 14, Wilke was accompanied by members of his command staff, as well as Zachary. While Ramey didnt accompany Miller, he did show up a few minutes after the hearing began. Neither side was represented by an attorney that morning. The hearing was the first of the day in Haywood County Superior Court, and when Warren took the bench, he brought Miller and Wilke up to argue their positions, noting that while he was called in the day before to review a case he wasnt familiar with, hed made time to review the petition. He went through state law outlining the procedure for a person to obtain law enforcement agency recordings.

That statute dictates that the court must consider a few things.

First, the person requesting the recording must be authorized to receive it. In this case, because Miller is depicted in the recording as stipulated by Wilke in court he is authorized. Next, the judge asked whether the recording may contain confidential information. It was acknowledged by both parties that it likely included conversations covered by attorney-client privilege. Miller agreed that audio in such segments could be redacted, which Warren said rendered that issue moot. Other concerns were whether the recording could reveal information that is highly sensitive or personal; if the disclosure could create a serious threat to the fair, impartial, and orderly administration of justice; or if its disclosure could jeopardize an active or inactive internal or criminal investigation. It was agreed that none of those would be an issue.

Wilke voiced concern that it could be technically cumbersome to redact the audio from the recordings while maintaining their integrity. In addition, according to statute, the disclosure of the recordings cant jeopardize the safety of a person, nor can it harm anyones reputation. Wilke said that Miller frequently uses a blog he has maintained for several years to launch personal attacks against numerous individuals.

While the sheriff said hed love the recordings to be made public because theyd refute the claim that we violated Mr. Millers Fourth Amendment Rights, he was concerned that Miller would use parts of the recording out of context to attack his deputies character and reputation. Warren addressed this in the order. First, he listed specific segments of the video that contain conversations covered by attorney-client privilege for which the audio must be redacted. He also gave Miller strict orders for how he can use the recording, once released to him.

No portion of the released videos may be published other than in a pending court proceeding, it reads, or to any party to any current or future lawsuit or witness is (sic) said lawsuit who are all hereby ordered not to publicly disclose the contents of said video. Said Order is punishable by contempt.

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HCSO to release body cam footage to plaintiff alleging Fourth Amendment violation - Smoky Mountain News

‘Get Brexit Done’ is now ‘Stop the Boats’: Is the Rwanda Bill the Conservatives’ Trojan Horse? Byline Times – Byline Times

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One of the lines that stays with me from learning Latin at school is from Virgils epic poem, the Aeneid Timeo Danaos et Dona Ferrentes (I fear the Greeks, even when they bring gifts). This line was uttered by the Trojan priest, Laocoon, who was warning that the Trojan Horse apparently gifted to the city of Troy by the departing Greeks might actually be a trap.

In similar fashion, I cant help feeling that I cant Trust the Conservatives, even when they obey the Law.

A huge song and dance was made by the Government before last weeks first vote on its Safety of Rwanda (Asylum and Immigration) Bill that the legislation just stayed within the framework of the European Convention of Human Rights.

The Bill, if adopted, would allow government ministers to ignore temporary injunctions raised by the European Court of Human Rights to stop flights taking off at the last minute. However, it would still allow asylum seekers to launch legal appeals to argue that they should be spared deportation, if they can claim various special circumstances.

Supporters of the Governments approach argue that the Bill goes as far as it can, without breaching international law and that Rwanda itself would withdraw from the scheme if the UK went any further.

Conservative opponents of the bill, including 29 MPs from the right wing of the party, who abstained on the vote, argue that it does not go far enough and that the language should have explicitly ruled out the scope for any legal challenges to deportation, whether under domestic or international human rights law.

Former Immigration Minister Robert Jenrick, who resigned over his disagreement with Rishi Sunaks migration policy, was even quoted (ironically, on Human Rights Day) as saying that the Government must put the views of the British public above contested notions of international law and that MPs are not sent to Parliament to be concerned about our reputation on the gilded international circuit.

I feel a weary sense of dj vu. This is Brexit, on repeat.

Former British diplomat Alexandra Hall Hall reflects on the complexities involved in the conflict and why there are no easy answers if any

Alexandra Hall Hall

Yet again, we have some members of the Conservative Party arguing that the UK needs to abandon another European institution this time the European Court of Human Rights in order to take back control of immigration.

Yet again, they scapegoat others on this occasion lefty lawyers for thwarting the will of the people.

Yet again, they claim unique knowledge and possession of what that will of the people actually is though there has been no explicit vote put to the public as to whether they really do support the Rwanda scheme, even if it involves the UK derogating from some aspects of human rights law. Just as there never was any explicit indication in the EU Referendum that the British public wanted the most hardline break with Brussels, including departure from the Customs Union and Single Market.

Yet again, we have Conservative MPs misrepresenting the facts, to argue that the Rwanda scheme will brilliantly solve all of the UKs immigration problems despite the evidence that it will only ever be able to remove a few hundred migrants, at most, and only at vast expense; that it will do nothing to resolve the massive asylum claim backlog; and the fact that most immigrants to the UK come here legally, partly as a result of the Governments own migration policies.

But then, Conservative MPs never acknowledge inconsistencies in their arguments, whether over Brexit or now over immigration.

Just like during the Brexit debates, Conservative MPs now are also happy to gloss over inconvenient facts regarding migration such as that our health, care, agriculture and hospitality sectors are dependent on affordable immigrant labour, and that there are no safe, legal routes for asylum seekers to come to the UK.

Instead, they waffle on about this being yet another issue of sovereignty. Indeed, the Rwanda Bill goes one step further than Brexit, in deliberately overriding the Supreme Courts judgment on Rwanda, to assert that Rwanda actually is a safe country. So now, not just laws, but facts, are whatever the British Government says them to be.

Russian President Vladimir Putin or Chinese President Xi Jinping are no doubt delighted to see members of the British political establishment adopt their practices of disinformation and disdain for international law. How much easier it makes it for them to continue gulling their own citizens, and defying international conventions and treaties, when they can point to a country like the UK previously a stalwart defender of the international rules-based order doing the same.

And just as during Brexit, so now, we have different factions of the Conservative Party tearing themselves to shreds, while critical national and international problems go unaddressed.

The hapless Sunak is in the role of Theresa May, desperately trying to hold his party together and risking pleasing none. The same Goldilocks dilemma prevails his immigration policy risks being too hard for the One Nation group of MPs on the moderate wing of the party, but too soft for the so-called Five Families factions on the right wing of the party.

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Terrified of losing voters to Nigel Farage and the Reform Party, Sunak, like May, will keep trying to appease the migration hardliners, though they will never be satisfied until he has fully ruptured relations with the ECHR. Terrified of alienating traditional conservative voters in their constituencies, the centrist MPs will hold their noses and keep going along, putting party before principle, time and again.

The one advantage Sunak has over May is that it would be hard, even for this shameless party, to seek to replace him as party leader, without triggering a general election, in which on current polling many MPs would lose their seats.

But this is precisely why I sense a trap.

For now, Sunak can play the role of responsible statesman, doing his best to restrain the more extreme members of his party, and insisting that any British legislation should stay just on the right side of the law. If the legislation passes, and asylum seekers start being deported to Rwanda even if its only a few dozen he can make the case that his scheme works, and campaign in the general election for voters to back him, in order to allow it to continue.

But if the legislation falls, or squeaks through only to be defeated again in the courts, before any asylum seekers are deported, Sunak can switch tactics to campaign full bore in support of leaving the ECHR on the grounds that he has exhausted all options and that his hand has been forced into accepting the most extreme approach.

This ploy might not be enough to prevent Conservative defeat to the Labour Party, but it might be enough to save a few seats and to allow the party to keep posturing in hardline fashion on immigration, without ever having to suffer the embarrassment of the Rwanda scheme failing, or having to deal with the damaging wider consequences of leaving the ECHR, such as for the Good Friday Agreement, or our post-Brexit relationship with the EU.

Like the Trojan Horse, I believe the Rwanda bill is a set-up. Get Brexit Done is now Stop the Boats. But, unlike the good citizens of Troy, I believe British voters will not let themselves be suckered a second time.

Never trust the Conservatives, even when they bring gifts.

Originally posted here:

'Get Brexit Done' is now 'Stop the Boats': Is the Rwanda Bill the Conservatives' Trojan Horse? Byline Times - Byline Times