Version 2.0 of this article is posted here.
One of the most popular dinner party conversation topics is the possibility that the United States will be joined or even surpassed as a superpower by another nation, such as China. China has some very smart people, a vast land area, and over four times the population of the US, so it should catch up easily, right? Let's assess the what makes a superpower, and what it would take for China to match the US on each pillar of superpowerdom.
A genuine superpower does not merely have military and political influence, but also must be at the top of the economic, scientific, and cultural pyramids. Thus, the Soviet Union was only a partial superpower, and the most recent genuine superpower before the United States was the British Empire.
To match the US by 2030, China would have to :
1) Have an economy near the size of the US economy. If the US grows by 3.5% a year for the next 25 years, it will be $30 trillion in 2006 dollars by then. Note that this is a modest assumption for the US, given the accelerating nature of economic growth, but also note that world GDP only grows about 4% a year, and this might at most be 5% a year by 2030. China, with an economy of $2.2 trillion in nominal (not PPP) terms, would have to grow at 12% a year for the next 25 years straight to achieve the same size, which is already faster than its current 9-10% rate, if even that can be sustained for so long (no country, let alone a large one, has grown at more than 8% over such a long period). In other words, the progress that the US economy would make from 1945 to 2030 (85 years) would have to be achieved by China in just the 25 years from 2005 to 2030. Even then, this is just the total GDP, not per capita GDP, which would still be merely a fourth of America's.
2) Create original consumer brands that are household names everywhere in the world (including in America), such as Coca-Cola, Nike, McDonalds, Citigroup, Xerox, Microsoft, or Google. Europe and Japan have created a few brands in a few select industries, but China currently has none. Observing how many American brand logos have populated billboards and sporting events in developing nations over just the last 15 years, one might argue that US dominance has even increased by this measure.
3) Have a military capable of waging wars anywhere in the globe (even if it does not actually wage any). Part of the opposition that anti-Americans have to the US wars in Afghanistan and Iraq is the envy arising from the US being the only country with the means to invade multiple medium-size countries in other continents and still sustain very few casualties. No other country currently is even near having the ability to project military power with such force and range. Mere nuclear weapons are no substitute for this. The inability of the rest of the world to do anything to halt genocide in Darfur is evidence of how such problems can only get addressed if and when America addresses them.
4) Have major universities that are household names, that many of the worlds top students aspire to attend. 17 of the world's top 20 universities are in the US. Until top students in Europe, India, and even the US are filling out an application for a Chinese university alongside those of Harvard, Stanford, MIT, or Cambridge, China is not going to match the US in the knowledge economy. This also represents the obstacles China has to overcome to successfully conduct impactful scientific research.
5) Attract the best and brightest to immigrate into China, where they can expect to live a good life in Chinese society. The US effectively receives a subsidy of $100 to $200 billion a year, as people educated at the expense of another nation immigrate here and promptly participate in the workforce. As smart as people within China are, unless they can attract non-Chinese talent that is otherwise going to the US, and even talented Americans, they will not have the same intellectual and psychological cross-pollination, and hence miss out on those economic benefits. The small matter of people not wanting to move into a country that is not a democracy also has to be resolved.
6) Become the nation that produces the new inventions and corporations that are adopted by the mass market into their daily lives. From the telephone and airplane over a century ago, America has been the engine of almost all technological progress. Despite the fears of innovation going overseas, the big new technologies and influential applications continue to emerge from companies headquartered in the United States. Just in the last two years, Google emerged as the next super-lucrative company (before eBay and Yahoo slightly earlier), and the American-dominated 'blogosphere' emerged as a powerful force of information and media.
See more here:
The Futurist: Why the US Will Still be the Only Superpower ...
- The G-Bound RC Car Drives On Water [Rc] - November 7th, 2009 [November 7th, 2009]
- Nanoparticles Can Rip Your DNA Apart Without Ever Touching It [Nanoparticles] - November 7th, 2009 [November 7th, 2009]
- My Favorite Top 10 List Today: The Dumbest Evil Geniuses Of All Time [Evil Geniuses] - November 7th, 2009 [November 7th, 2009]
- 5,000 Volts Is More Than Enough Power To Crush a Soda Can [DIY] - November 7th, 2009 [November 7th, 2009]
- Computers Are Scary, But Steve Allen Is Here to Help [Retromodo] - November 7th, 2009 [November 7th, 2009]
- Pangolin Backpack [Bags] - November 7th, 2009 [November 7th, 2009]
- New For iPhone: 2 Balls 1 Cup [IPhone Apps] - November 7th, 2009 [November 7th, 2009]
- Office Building Or Home To A Super Heroine? [Architecture] - November 7th, 2009 [November 7th, 2009]
- This Inflating Bra Commercial Left Me Confused Yet Reaching For My Wallet [Nsfw] - November 7th, 2009 [November 7th, 2009]
- 10 Terrible Tips for Longer Battery Life [Humor] - November 7th, 2009 [November 7th, 2009]
- Dealzmodo: $100 Xbox 360 at Amazon, More Electronics Deals All Day Long [Dealzmodo] - November 7th, 2009 [November 7th, 2009]
- Gigabyte BIOS Update Fixes iPhone Syncing Issues [IPhone] - November 7th, 2009 [November 7th, 2009]
- Hello Facebook User, I'm a Nigerian Prince in Need of Assistance... [Facebook] - November 7th, 2009 [November 7th, 2009]
- Zune HD Update 4.3: Speedier Browser, Predictive Text and More [Zune Hd] - November 7th, 2009 [November 7th, 2009]
- 8-Bit Wedding Invitation Acknowledges the Marital Bickering to Come [8-Bit Wedding] - November 7th, 2009 [November 7th, 2009]
- The iPhone Nano Rumor Strikes Again: Coming to Verizon in 2010? [Rumor] - November 7th, 2009 [November 7th, 2009]
- Building a NAS? Skip the Performance Drives [Nas] - November 7th, 2009 [November 7th, 2009]
- Microsoft COFEE, Some of the Most Illegal Software You Can Pirate [Hacking] - November 7th, 2009 [November 7th, 2009]
- Robot Cow Rectum: For Educational, not Recreational, Purposes [Robots] - November 7th, 2009 [November 7th, 2009]
- Watch Jonathan Ive's Segment in Objectified [Apple] - November 7th, 2009 [November 7th, 2009]
- BlueBeat’s Innovative Defense That Will Never Hold Up in Court [Music] - November 7th, 2009 [November 7th, 2009]
- Nokia Booklet 3G Landing November 15 at Best Buy [Nokia] - November 7th, 2009 [November 7th, 2009]
- Latest Snow Leopard Developer Build Breaks Hackintosh Support... Again [Hackintosh] - November 7th, 2009 [November 7th, 2009]
- The Cité du Design Certainly Lives Up to Its Name [Architecture] - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- 64% of Men Don’t RTFM Before Calling Tech Support [Tech Support] - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- MIT Media Lab: Electronic Wallpaper, Conductive Threads and More [Fashion] - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Famous Paintings Reproduced In Coffee [Art] - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- How Far Can 'Medical Tourism' Go? - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Actuarial Escape Velocity - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- A Rebuttal to 'Peak Oil' Doomsday Predictions - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Reverend Jeremiah White,...I mean, Wright - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Energy vs. Financials, A Divergence of Historical Extremes - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- US Ideological Distribution, 2008 - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Ten Biotechnology Breakthroughs Soon to be Available - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Nanohealing Material Heads to Market - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- The Solar Revolution is Near - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Why the US Will Still be the Only Superpower in 2030, v2.0 - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- The Culture of Happiness - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Surfaces : The Next Killer Ap in Computing - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- More on the Economics of Medical Tourism - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Ten Myths in America - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Can Buildings be 'Printed'? - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Pre-Singularity Abundance Milestones - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- The Futurist's Stock Portfolio for 2009 - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- A Future Timeline for Economics - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- A History of Stock Market Bottoms - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- A Few Electoral Statistics - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- It's Official : The Recession Began in December 2007 - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- How We Decisively WON in Iraq in 2008 - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- 2008 Technology Breakthrough Roundup - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- The Futurist's Stock Portfolio for 2008 - RESULTS - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Why Government is Set to Extinguish Silicon Valley - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Solar Power's Next 5 Game-Changing Technologies - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- The End of Rabbit Ears, a Billion more Broadband Users - Part II - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Guantanamo Meets Geneva Convention Rules - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Nanotechnology : Bubble, Bust, ....Boom? - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- The Form of Economic Recovery - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- The Impact of Computing : 78% More per Year, v2.0 - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Wolfram Alpha : The Birth of Web 3.0 - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Energy vs. Financials, RESULTS - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- SETI and the Singularity - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Eight Ways to Supercharge the US Economy - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- The Next Big Thing in Entertainment, A Half-Time Update - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Video Conferencing : A Cascade of Disruptions - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Timing the Singularity - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Mobile Broadband Surge : A Prediction Follow Up - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- The Next Two US Recessions - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Google Promotes Droid Day With Rare Homepage Ad [Google] - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Microsoft Confirms Improved Xbox 360 Warranty Seal [Blockquote] - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- OpenOfficeMouse Is An 18 Button Freak, But I Want It [Mouse] - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- 10 Classic Analog Games Defiled By Digital [Tgif] - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Wire Your House With Ethernet Cable For Better Home Networking [DIY] - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- The Next Room Eavesdropping Device Is Way Better Than a Drinking Glass [Surveillance] - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Steve Jobs and Sarah Jessica Parker Sittin' In A Courthouse B-E-I-N-G S-U-E-D [Lawsuits] - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- The Folding Titanium Spork Is the Ultimate Portable Eating Utensil [Spork] - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- The Queen of Google: "I Do Code All Night!" [Google] - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- This Week's Best iPhone Apps [IPhone Apps] - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- DIY Star Trek Bluetooth Communicator Almost Makes Regular Bluetooth Headsets Look Stylish [DIY] - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- Intel Swears That It's Gonna Stop Its Firmware From Bricking Any More SSDs [Intel] - November 8th, 2009 [November 8th, 2009]
- H20 Audio's Waterproof iPod Nano Case Is Built for Surfer-Videographers [Accessories] - December 12th, 2009 [December 12th, 2009]