Turbulent times on global sharemarkets look set to continue, but there is light ahead, writes Matthew Kidman.

The most common question I get asked is how the world will pan out once we get through the current mess? Futurism is a dubious occupation but a task we all like to dabble in. When it comes to sharemarkets the best approach is to go region-by-region identifying the key dynamics.

The United States is still the largest and most critical global sharemarket. There can be no new bull market without America leading the charge and I am confident it will find its feet again and retain world leadership.

In the short term the US is in for a rocky ride, dealing with the looming $750 billion reduction in government stimulus. Coined the ”fiscal cliff,” this involves the end to a series of tax breaks and the start of savage spending cuts, which are due to kick in early next year. Economists forecast this could deduct a staggering 3 per cent to 5 per cent off economic growth. Avoiding this would seem difficult given the political divide and the approaching presidential election. If nothing is resolved by August this could get hairy and trigger another wave of selling on the sharemarket. No doubt the Federal Reserve and its captain, Ben Bernanke, will be ready to counter with more cash manufacturing, all making for a bumpy ride until December.

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Beyond 2012 it is easier to build a more bullish case for the US. The housing crash from 2006 to 2009 threw the world into a tailspin and there is little hope for a sustained recovery without housing playing a central role. Despite the lowest interest rates in history the residential construction industry can’t get out of the basement. Housing starts continue to languish at about half traditional levels of more than 1 million a year, leaving US consumers, the engine of world growth, spluttering. At some stage over the next two years the backlog of homes from the great overbuild will disappear, jump-starting residential activity and firing up consumption. The lack of construction jobs since 2008 is almost singularly responsible for the present high unemployment.

US politicians are not willing to attack government debt. Therefore the only way out is via a dramatic step-up in economic growth on a re-invigorated housing industry. This, coupled with high productivity, cheaper energy prices and a growing and relatively young population will get the US back on track. It must be made clear that endless stimulus packages from the government and Federal Reserve are not the answer.

By contrast, Europe has no hope. Putting aside the debt calamity, the continent is sinking to a second-tier economic zone. Europe is the equivalent of a 70-year-old retired person deciding to take out the biggest mortgage of her life. There is no chance of paying it back. The entire continent, particularly the southern rim, has negligible productivity growth, no population growth and an ageing population.

If the debt crisis is adequately dealt with, Europe could easily provide the catalyst for a jump in global equity markets; however, this will not be sustainable and a never-ending recession will take hold, not unlike Japan.

China is a completely different story. Talk of a hard or soft landing is ridiculous given the country is going to grow at an astonishing rate of between 6 and 8 per cent over the next 12 months.

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