[I've been holding off writing about the Chinese space launch due to prior commitments and also because I've been trying to gather my thoughts about it. I'm still not sure where I fall, so here are some of my feelings. They are, of course, subject to change upon better arguments and evidence. I'll note also not everyone thinks crewed exploration of space is important. To be clear: those people are wrong, and I have a list of blog posts explaining why.]

Last week, the Chinese launched a crew of three into space. Their destination: the Chinese space station Tiangong-1, which for now consists of a single orbiting module about 10 meters long by 3 across. The Shenzou 9 capsule carrying the astronauts (sometimes called taikonauts) successfully docked with the station on Monday the first time the Chinese have docked a crewed capsule, making them only the third nation to have achieved this feat (after Russia and the US). Video from the event was posted on YouTube:

Thats pretty amazing the docking was done by remote control from Earth, and appears to have gone pretty well. The crew is now aboard Tiangong-1, getting it set up. Much like the International Space Station which was launched one piece at a time and assembled in orbit, its clear China plans on expanding Tiangong-1. Tiangong-1 is the first in a series of planned space stations by China.

Ive been reading about Chinas space efforts, and I have to say I am uneasy by a lot of it. My first impulse, as Ive written before, is that space is open to everyone, and the more the merrier. Ive also been vocal about the need to avoid a “Space Race” mentality: us versus them doing something first. The problem with that is that it isnt sustainable. Once you win (or lose) youre done. I think its the main reason Apollo scaled so far back after even the first landing, and why we didnt continue on to build a moonbase, or at least the 2001-style orbiting space station.

On the other hand, we also need to avoid the been-there-done-that mentality as well. For one thing, the NASA that went to the Moon is literally no longer the NASA that exists today. We have different rockets, different technology, and most importantly different people, both in political office as well as in the NASA engineering departments. Sure, we went to the Moon in 60s and 70s, but it is literally impossible for us to go back at the current time, and will be for many years to come. Thats worth remembering.

I say this because Amy Shira Teitel has an excellent summary of the Chinese space program on her blog. Its a repost from last year, but it covers a lot of the background of where we are. However, she makes a point I think needs discussing:

It could go two ways. Either China will become an ally like modern Russia, or it could become an adversary like the former Soviet UnionBut China isnt really a threat yet, at least not enough of one that NASA would enter into another space race.

I think we need to have a care here. If we take a snapshot of NASA and China, then this may be true. But looking over time, Im not so sure. China is showing a capability now to do things NASA cannot do: most obviously, launch humans into space. That capability may be back soon, whether through NASAs own rocket system or commercial ventures like SpaceX. But right now, China has far more momentum than NASA does. In the US were arguing over this or that project getting its funding cut, while we make very little progress in crewed exploration. Its worrisome.

Amy goes on:

Thats one thing China has available to its space program that NASA doesnt: money.

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